I hate anticlimactic endings to good matches. Vincent should have won by one vote.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP

LOL MORE LIKE 0 POSTS.

FIRST.

SO SOON?

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Explicit Content
Back on even a crappier name!

Blue Blur > Blue Bomber

Man, that's rough on the tongue.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Earthquake in a can > Les Infantes Terribles
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

No, Bowser is not greater than Solid, Liquid, and Solidus.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Before it hit 300 even? Either just make the next two parts simultaneously or make it later. >_>


~RPGGamer~

Yes... Yes he is. Although I'm FINALLY playing through MGS2 as we speak....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

http://ualuealuealeuale.ytmnd.com/

That would have been my 500.
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One guru to rule them all. One guru to find them. One guru to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.

Too bad this match isn't close. We haven't had a real one this year.

Nah, Bowser is indeed better than all the Snake Brothers.
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http://www.success-corp.co.jp/software/ps2/was/index.html
Oh Happy Days for me :)

From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/11/2005 1:11:03 AM | Message Detail
Gems is already out. =p

¬_¬
Why was I not informed?
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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have

Tifa won an update :(

No matter. This was when her % peaked against Vyse.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Tifa wins another update. She's doing her best to at least keep this interesting.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

w00t i got my 1st 500th post xD
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Sonic The Hedgehog's road to the best final possible:
Chaos divison finals (3) Tifa Lockheart

Come on, Tifa! I would at least like to see her doing some damage here during the night.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Tifa gained 2 votes...

I call cheating! ¬_¬
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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have

They went 50/50 that update.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

All I know is that if Tifa comes back next year and bombs even with AC and God knows-what-else on her side, I'll never ever be a doubter of the bandwagon theory again.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I'd just like to note that I have a suspicion—which can't be corroborated, but I wanted to mention it—that Tifa's strength might be more sensitive to her pics than other characters tend to be. (I felt this way about KOS-MOS too)
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

the stats topic has finally slown down alot -.-
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Sonic The Hedgehog's road to the best final possible:
Chaos divison finals (3) Tifa Lockheart

Pics mean nothing.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I couldn't imagine Tifa bombing if she comes back next year, especially with something there to help her.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Pics definitely mean something.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

Man, I wish pics meant nothing. Then I wouldn't have to still be worrying about Snake/Bowser.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

It seems to be more even now. Tifa just needs to start winning updates more frequently. =p

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

"Pics definitely mean something."

You're right, it means that the two characters pictured ar in the match that day. Outside of that, they mean nothing.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Tifa won't bomb like Frog. Tifa has the FF7 fanbase behind her.

Although it must be admitted that the chances of her coming back are doubtful. Cjay will probably restrict it to 3 FF7 characters again.
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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have

so finally we have a serious chance of killing off a FF7 character.

and who thinks that female characters tend to perform less well than male characters?

i believe a lot of the voters are 11-12 and represent close to 30-40k of voters and teenagers and above represent about 50+k. now the reason why samus is so strong would be because a lot of young ones don't know she is a girl so vote for her. that would explain why there are so many non-elite girls.
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

"Pics definitely mean something."

IMO. Tifa overperformed aganist Vyse, underperformed aganist Luigi and is somewhere in between aganist Sonic.

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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have

Even if Tifa ends up ahead of Aeris (which I'm still skeptical on), I still want to see Aeris back if we can only have one of the two. Mostly for the possibility that she might get KH2'd.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

so finally we have a serious chance of killing off a FF7 character.

URGE TO SPOIL... RISING...
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Aerith also has AC. But I won't speak anymore on the subject.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

and who thinks that female characters tend to perform less well than male characters?



Nah, it's only Seph and Cloud that can outperform Tifa. All the other FF7 characters seem to be around the same.

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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have

and who thinks that female characters tend to perform less well than male characters?

...*looks at the ToC*
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

When you come to vote in a character poll, you see two things: a name and a picture. To completely disregard one of those two things seems a bit foolish to me.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

I think it only matters in the few instances where the two characters are equally liked or equally uncared for, things I consider to be quite rare. Most voters are not so fickle that they will change heir vote from a character they like to another they don't care fro jsut because the second did 9999 in one of two possible pictures. considering how much more often pictures do nothing at all than the number of times they might, in some small way, have done something should tell you far too many of you have put too much stock into them.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Continue, Chichiri. I must continue to rationalize how Snake is somehow equal to Samus 2k4, and this is my only real shot. >_<
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

can someone explain this to me?

Your Contest Entry
Current Score: 0

my bracket should have about 60 points but it doesn't want to put my score up.
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

This year's contest is off the charts in terms of unpredictability. Seriously, we'll have to wait on any sort of stats until the damn thing is done.

Just remember... I brought all this so you can survive when law is lawless.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:23:33 AM | Message Detail | #021
Pics mean nothing.

Such a statement would only be made by those without knowledge of internet marketing.

In internet marketing, as in all marketing, presentation makes significant differences in outcome.

When presentation is capable of making profound, and usually surprising and often unpredictable, changes in: the likelihood of people clicking on ads, or registering for a mailing list, or the way that people spend their money online—changing the %es of likelihood in which people are likely to buy a few hundred dollar iPod or thousand dollar TV by orders of magnitude (and I do not exaggerate at all here)—anyone thinking that presentation can't substantially affect the likelihood of how the masses vote in a poll in which they have no stake except fanboyism/character appeal (appeal which is in large part tied with the character model, which can be considered intrinsic marketing by the character), simply has little experience with this sort of thing.

And in these polls, there are two primary elements to the marketing: the name as it appears, and the picture.

Note that when we first started these topics, I was annoyed by how much these topics were focused on pictures. However you can't dismiss that it has an influence.

The problem is that these sorts of things are often unpredictable in their actual impact. This is why pic factor is of limited use in after-the-fact explanations of things that don't match our expectations. And thus discussing pic factor can be futile. It is not that pics have no influence.

The thing about pic factor that you should remember though is that *if you rotated pics and saw the data*, there would be different voting patterns based on the pic used. I can guarantee you this, without seeing the data. There is always a difference in result when making any noticeable change. Problem is, that change is often not what you'd expect beforehand. And also, the differences may not be conistent; though in many cases they would be.

Note that I am not trying to overstate pic factor here at all; but no doubt there have been matches and characters where the picture has had a substantial influence on the final percentages, compared to what the percentages would be if, say, no pictures and only names were shown.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

"unpredictable"
"limited use"
"discussing pic factor can be futile"

Agreed

"It is not that pics have no influence."

You're right, it's that we have absolutel no way of knowing what, if any, influence they have. Frankly, they are so useless in terms or prediction and after-the-fact explanation that THEY AREN'T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING!
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

okay, back from reading #244.

first, nice prediction percentage. nice leaderboard, too. 'grats to the stats topic people that made the board, Sir Bormun and others that I missed.

second, it's too bad there was no final push for Squall yesterday. that would have been awesome if he started tearing chunks off the lead only to run out of time. nice match, though.

Tifa's doing as I expected here - 52-48 until the day vote kicks in, 55-45 by the end of the day vote, and 54-46 or so to lose. this should place her around 32-33%, which is pretty strong. it looks like after all that debate, Tifa/Aeris/Vincent are all going to be within a point or so of each other.
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.

That's what I said. Except that they aren't totally not worth mentioning; especially since we can speculate that they would matter more for less well-known characters, or characters with less "loyal" fanbases; and perhaps there is a relationship with strength as well.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

"no stake except fanboyism"

Oh, and since it needs to be stated... as a group we're like hte guys that go to a football game painted head-to-toe in our team's colors. Some of us are such hardcore fans that if out favorite character is winnign by less than 200 votes with 22 hours to go we'll hit the boards and gloat about our inevitable victories. We eat that fanboyism stuff up, and some people are so hardcore about it that they can EXTRAPOLATE A FAVORITES BRACKET. Seriously, Name > Pic by such a factor as Link > Tanner.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I knew Sonic's performance against Diablo was to good to be true..
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg

Don't pass judgment yet. We have no idea where Tifa lies. Granted, it's certainly nowhere near where constant Vyse implies, but give Luigi the good ol' boost that Ninty got as well as some credit for being underrated, and Sonic might not come out so shabby after all.

He's still in this, as he always was. Sonic has a shot at everyone until Mario/Samus (though I think he's the heavy underdog against Crono).
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Anyone who didn't know that was missing something. Seriously, did anyone believe that result? With all the pic-believers I can't imagine people here would think that Sonic wouldn't over performs on solid lava ****.

~~~
Remember that it's all in your head

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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

"Granted, it's certainly nowhere near where constant Vyse implies"

what, you're trying to say that Sonic isn't going to topple Sephiroth and give Link the run of his lifetime? Ridiculous.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

There WERE pic-believers for that match, except Ganondorf had gotten the same picture against Diablo in his match, so it was discredited.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

what was the final Vincent - Squall score?
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Vincent's Path to Victory: Round 3 - (2)Squall