There's certainly no reason for Squall to have a legitimate advantage with the second night vote that would be big enough to swing this match.

His second update is more normal -- that first one threw me for a loop though.

---
"The gate of tomorrow is not the light of heaven, but the darkness in the depths of the Earth."
-- Vincent Valentine

He'd need a bigger advantage for the rest of the night than he's ever had during the entire match.
---
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Squall knocked off 11 that time; his lead is down to 834.

---
"The gate of tomorrow is not the light of heaven, but the darkness in the depths of the Earth."
-- Vincent Valentine

See, people said I called it too early... but it looks like I called it right, yeah? Hell, Vincent is even winning by about .2% more than I expected once I had seen the first hour and a half of the match.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

GO VINCENT!!!
---
"Last of the Uchihas"
www.myspace.com/a_its_b

Watch, next update Vincent will be up by 900. >_>
---
SC2K5 Score: 77/84
Today's Vote: Vincent Valentine

*comes back from a while ago*

okay.. Vincent wins..

---
"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

His lead is down a further 11 votes. :)

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Squall knocks off another 11.

---
"The gate of tomorrow is not the light of heaven, but the darkness in the depths of the Earth."
-- Vincent Valentine

and I must say.. the stats topic moved pretty quickly today

---
"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

I really need to stop looking at the updater. Curse it's false hope.
---
"Legend? A legend is nothing but fiction. Someone tells it, someone else remembers, everybody passes it on." ~Solid Snake

Yeah, I quit looking at the updater once Vincent got over 800.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Squall may be making gains, but it's not enough.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Squall cut 8 that time -- lead of 815. Only four hours left and I think he needs quite a bit more per update to win.

---
"The gate of tomorrow is not the light of heaven, but the darkness in the depths of the Earth."
-- Vincent Valentine

He gained what, 8 right there? It's not enough. What's his votes needed per update right now?
---
Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

Squall need 17 votes/ 5 min. update to win.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Something tell's me Squall is going to catch up.
---
"Last of the Uchihas"
www.myspace.com/a_its_b

Then it will be one of the best comebacks ever, but only if he makes most of it at the last hour.

>_>

<_<
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

So then, in all liklihood...

Aeris > Vincent > Squall with each inequaily being nearly an equally small amount. Not too bad, except for the whole Squall not being <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Vincent.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Vincent back up to 843.

---
"The gate of tomorrow is not the light of heaven, but the darkness in the depths of the Earth."
-- Vincent Valentine

Squall coming back is a ridiculous notion.

---
Explicit Content
Back on even a crappier name!

28 vote spike for Vincent.
---
SC2K5 Score: 77/84
Today's Vote: Vincent Valentine

So, how do you guys think Bret Hart would do in one of these contests?
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

This has got to be the most consistent close match, percentage-wise, that we'll ever see.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars, Grim Fandango

Aeris > Vincent > Squall with each inequaily being nearly an equally small amount.

I bet Tifa is gonna slide nicely in there somewhere, too. I guess we're gonna know soon enough.
---
"Legend? A legend is nothing but fiction. Someone tells it, someone else remembers, everybody passes it on." ~Solid Snake

Don't worry guys, Vincent hasn't used his limit break yet.
---
"Last of the Uchihas"
www.myspace.com/a_its_b

Man, I love old stat topics. They're good for laughs.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

As I've always thought, Aeris > Tifa > Vincent. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tifa above Aeris, but I doubt she'll do it.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I'd actually pay good money to see the stats topic from the Ansem/CATS match, if only to see the reactions in there. I wasn't here for most of the Spring.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

And, Ulti's right. While the actual lead may be beyond Frog/Liquid by a significant margin, the fact that we're taking in so many more votes makes this result astounding.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

So I'm assuming everyone in this topic will assume that Aeris would be at her 2k3 value if she were in the contest this year? (-_-)
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

No, but I don't believe Squall's at his 2k3 value either. Their KHF has likely degraded at the same rate.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I think this match seems to indicate that Squall is indeed up there, personally. I just can't see them being much higher or lower than that. I think using static Knuckles brings them all too low.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

I do. I see no reason for Aeris to have moved all that much, really. If Squall 2k5 ~ Squall 2k3 then I wouldn't at all doubt Aeris 2k5 ~ Aeris 2k3.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I think using static Knuckles brings them all too low.

Who, Squall/Vincent/Magus/Dante?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars, Grim Fandango

Yeah, that too. <_<
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Yeah, I just get the feeling that if Vincent doesn't perform to snuff on Crono or Tifa does slightly worse on Sonic than Aeris, that everyone will quickly go to "SEE I TOLD YOU AERIS > TIFA > VINCENT SPOILERS > J00" mode or something to that effect, even though we haven't seen her in action in 2 years...
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

It's pretty safe to assume based on this match with Squall that Aeris > Vincent at least, at least through the (lol) X-Stats. Tifa will be harder to pin down, as she's facing a Sonic that is most likely stronger than his 2k3 incarnation. We'll just have to see where she ends up after Crono v. Sonic/Mega Man.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Chaos Division Round 3 - Match 55 – (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (3)Tifa Lockhart
Tifa sez: Sonic’s faster than the speed of sound!

Sonic
Round 1 – vs. Jin (Sonic: 76.15% - Jin: 23.85%)
Round 2 – vs. Diablo (Sonic: 68.55% - Diablo: 31.45%)

Sonic impresses against Diablo, something he failed to do against Jin.

Tifa
Round 1 – vs. Vyse (Tifa: 78.07% - Vyse: 21.93%)
Round 2 – vs. Luigi (Tifa: 53.36% - Luigi: 46.64%)

Luigi was a tougher opponent than we thought for Tifa.

Before the Contest, most people figured Tifa would be a Neo Aeris, and beat Vyse and Luigi easily, then losing to Sonic in a close match. I mean, Aeris pulled up 47% on Sonic. Well, things got real interesting after Round 1.

Sonic was expected to crush Jin. Very, very badly. Instead, he gets 76% of the vote, which is a letdown to most. Tifa then goes and blows the crud out of Vyse. Almost as badly as Cloud did last year. Needless to say, Tifa over Sonic turned into a popular upset pick. Well, that was until Sonic beat the holy crap out of Diablo. Tifa supporters were even more silenced after she only got 53% on Luigi. Yeah, the same Luigi that Squall got 60% on in 2003. Now, since then, Squall has fallen, while Luigi has rose from the Nintendo boost. Even so, the match would still be pretty close if it was re-done today.

So, Tifa is as strong, or a little stronger than Squall. Sonic is a bit stronger than Squall, last I checked. It should be close, and Tifa does have a small chance to pull the upset, but I just don’t see it happening. Her numbers against Luigi showed that she’s not the powerhouse that many wanted, but instead, just….Neo Aeris.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic: 54% - Tifa: 46%



Ulti’s Analysis

No seriously, after one match, Xst fanboys spearheaded a movement that got everyone thinking that Tifa could win this match. After her very next match in which she completely bombed against Luigi, those same Xst fanboys came up with every adjustment under the sun to try and make themselves not look like such idiots. The whole thing reminded me of all of that Samus > Cloud crap that was floating around after Samus beat down Lara and Sam in 2004. Isn't looking at years-old data to try and predict the future fun? But of course, this happens every time a match swings feces on the stats. People whine about their little religion not falling perfectly in place, and they adjust and cover up and make up factors until all looks well for what they ultimately failed to prove in the first place. It makes for good entertainment when watching it go on, I guess.

The moral of the story is that even though it would be cool to see Tifa win (I'm a huge FF7/Tifa fan, for the record), I highly doubt that she will. Unless you somehow believe that Luigi could come close to beating Sonic, that is.

Prediction: Sonic with 55.54%



Outback’s Analysis

It's the same thing we saw with Vincent here. Impressive first round, meh 2nd round. However, there is a large difference between facing Squall and facing Sonic. Sonic should have no trouble at all showing how much distance there actually is between the two of them, and this match won't be in trouble at all.

Sonic with 56.00%



Tnote’s Analysis

Tifa couldn't even beat Sonic will the cosplay pictures, because she would get Hedgehog Jug Factor'd. If Sonic had those breasts, this match wouldn't even be close. But he only has spikes, so he still has to go to battle against Tifa's polygonal knockers. Luigi increased a good deal, but enough to make Tifa's victory over him translate into the upset? I think not. Sonic/Mega Man should be the best match left, unless Cloud/Link surprises.

Pick: Sonic with 54.83%

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Soul’s Analysis

Round 2 Results

Sonic defeated Diablo: 68.55% - 31.45%

Tifa defeated Luigi: 53.36% - 46.64%

As said in my previous analysis, this will be my favorite match of the round. Why? Well, because in this match, we will figure out how strong Sonic actually is. We seen him put up a Crono-like number against Diablo last round, so this match will show if that was a fluke or not.


Tifa, like Vincent, looks to have been overrated after her round 1 blow-out over Vyse. She was expected to give Sonic one of his hardest matches in this contest, but that was all changed after her match with Luigi. She only got 53% against him. To compare, that would put her around Vercetti's level in 2004 (assuming there is no boost from Luigi, which is most likely wrong). To think that Tifa is still strong enough to beat Sonic means that Luigi must be equal to 2004 SFF-adjusted Bowser. But how does that make sense, since Bowser defeated Yoshi who defeated Luigi? Yeah, pretty stange if you ask me.

Like I said earlier, Sonic looks like he has grown very strong so far. Although he didn't break 80% against Jin, he still got more then 68.5% against Diablo. Hell, he was even breaking 69% before diabloii.net linked to GameFAQs. To put that in perspective, based on Ganondorf's result in the Spring, Sonic would get around 45% against Sephiroth (again, assuming everything since 3 months ago stayed constant). That would put him higher then Mario in those stats.

Of course, I've come to realize that the stats from last year mean very little, but it's still interesting to note nonetheless.

So, what we come down to is a very strong Sonic Vs. a disappointing Tifa. Looks like the Noble Nine will stay intact for a few more rounds at least.

My prediction: Sonic wins with 59.50% of the vote. Blue Blur > Blue Bomber.



Vlado’s Analysis

Aah... This is Tifa's first serious challenge in this contest. If she manages to win here, she'll be at least in the Final Four, as I'm sure that whoever can beat Sonic this year can also beat Rockman. I'm pretty sure that everyone but me will go with Sonic here, given Tifa's less-than-stellar performance against Luigi and his impressive win against Diablo. But what does a win over Diablo mean?... He won three matches in the spring, against opponents that are absolute losers and in matches that got much less votes than now. Diablo was just overestimated by the spring contest stats. He surely got many votes against Ganon purely due to the fact that his run was considered amazing, as predictable as it was. So, in short, I don't think Sonic is that much stronger than last year.

Tifa beat Luigi, getting 53.36% of the votes... Many thought that wasn't an impressive result and, to be honest, I was hoping to see her get at least 55% so I can be able to declare that she has a chance against Sonic... Well, even if she didn't get that number, I think that the huge Nintendo increase may have helped Luigi a good deal... Why couldn't he have become almost as strong as Sonic? Sure, he'd still be weaker, but Tifa can still win this. I believe in her and if she wins, this will be the happiest GameFAQs contest matchday ever for me.

Predicted percentage: Tifa Lockheart with 51.06%

Inviso’s Analysis

I’m most likely going to be wrong in this prediction, but I don’t care. If it happens, I will be VERY happy and get to make the topic I’ve been hoping I’d get to make since the Vyse match. Sonic thus far has been very strong, beating Jin Kazama and Diablo in blowouts. But when you think about it, Jin is from Tekken, and fighting games are not strong at Gamefaqs. Street Fighter is the best, and even it is pretty weak. And as for Diablo, he’s pretty weak as well. His best performance was in a contest where aside from 3 characters, pretty much the entire field was fodder. He performed poorly on Kefka, who has been proven to be extremely weak. In fact, most of the results of the villains contest can be thrown out, as Revolver Ocelot lost to Pac Man, who is losing horribly to Yoshi, making Ocelot look like fodder himself. Diablo in this contest performed poorly against a ToS character, which, as evidenced by Lloyd, has next to no power at all in these contests. So really, Sonic hasn’t gotten to prove himself against anyone who actually has any power.

Tifa, thus far has proven to be a mystery herself. In her first match, she faced Vyse and got around 78%, only a few percentage points lower than Cloud got on the pirate. So after this match, Tifa was looking very good to do well in this tournament. Then in round two, she faced Luigi, and people had high expectations of her performance, saying she’d beat him more powerfully than Squall, saying Luigi would win (yeah, like that would ever happen), saying that she needed to win with higher than 65% in order to stand a chance against Sonic. In the end, Tifa only managed to get 53% against Mario’s brother. People immediately lost all faith in Tifa. I still haven’t. Things look bad, but there’s a reasonable explanation. Nintendo, as we know, has definitely increased in strength this contest. Luigi jumped up, doing 15% higher than expected against KOS-MOS. Who’s to say that that 15% wouldn’t be consistent? Tifa, based on Vyse and his relationship to Cloud, would get around 70% on 2004 Luigi. With that extra 15%, Tifa’s win is only 55%. This match is just about accurate. Sonic will probably win, there’s no doubt about that. But Tifa’s still got a 10% chance. And I bet I’ll be one of only two people picking Tifa to win this match, so I’ve got a good chance of winning the point if I’m right.

My Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog
My Vote: Tifa Lockheart
My Prediction: Tifa Lockheart with 50.02%

Who, Squall/Vincent/Magus/Dante?

Yeah. I personally don't see all four of them being below 30% on BL. Not to mention, it prevents Terra from being as low as Ultros and brings her in line with Cecil, which is more feasible.

And wow, someone besides Vlado thinks Tifa will win. Then again, it's Inviso, so it's still not too surprising.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

How come before Vlado's prediction was posted I knew he was going to go with Tifa?

---
Explicit Content
Back on even a crappier name!

I can't believe that two people picked Tifa.

Nice. I predicted what everyone would predict. <___<
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

It's been 4 hours 15 minutes since Vincent had a percent outside the .45-.50 area.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Well, only a fool would think Vlado WOULDN'T pick Tifa.

I talked to Inviso about her pick for Tifa, and even though her reason sounds crazy, she's sticking to it.
---
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Vincent vs. Squall- Bracket: Magus - Vote: Vincent (76/84)

Vincent currently at leading at 846, is there anyone who still thinks he won't win?
---
Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

I've called it before he even broke 400.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)