Squall/Luigi rematch: who wins?

Squall, taking Luigi over him is just as smart as taking Sonic over Samus next year.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg

Squall? Squall?!!? SQUUUUUUUUUUUAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLL!!!

come back squall!
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

Squall's last hope is for CJayC to declare cheating.
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Summer Contest 2005 Winner: Mario
Mario will SFF Samus, and pull it out against Crono.

This is why I love these contest: close matches that go back-and-forth like this. Even though I was screwed by Knuckles beating Magus...I'm still enjoying watching this.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

Eh, I don't think it's happening. Except for one or two (admittedly very large) Vincent updates, they've both been following similar confounding patterns. And Squall has had his own mammoth leaps as well.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Squall looks like he's not going to be able to keep up with Vincent as we get closer to the night vote. It isn't any jump for Vincent either -- he's been rather consistent these past few updates with around a 200 - 208 vote gain -- it's just Squall sitting around 180 per update.

Vincent closing in on a 600 vote lead.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

We're definitely still in day vote territory though. The night vote could still go to Squall.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

It's hard to see it going to him decisively, though, and we're going to have less votes on the tail end due to this being a weekend.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Actually, it's on pace for ~99,000 votes. Which isn't really all THAT much...

Votals are always higher in close matches anyway.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

The night vote could still go to Squall.

I doubt it will, personally. And if it did, Squall isn't going to favored significantly. He might win the night vote, but I don't think it would be enough given the circumstances.


Squall won that update too. He knocked off 22 votes.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

And then Vincent gains 14 of those votes back.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

He lost that one, though. They're both really all over the place.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

He lost another one here.

Hopefully, he'll keep losing them. ^_^;

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Squall's waking up...

Oooh, Oooh!
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

Heh. Another update won for Squall, bringing the lead down to 552.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Squall got 17 on that one. Wow, we wanted a close match and we've got one.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

Squall seems to excel at these low vote periods. It's where he took the lead over Vincent earlier today.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

So how many votes per update (we'll say 15-minute updates) does Squall need to win now? I think it's just over 10, but I'd like a more exact number please.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Vincent's average vote against Dante from 12:00 to 15:00 was 53.90%

Vincent's average vote against Dante from 15:00 to 18:00 was 53.50%

Vincent's average vote against Kerrigan from 12:00 to 15:00 was 79.90%

Vincent's average vote against Kerrigan from 15:00 to 18:00 was 79.60%

I just felt like doing that. Now that it means anything for Squall but it couldn't hurt.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

So how many votes per update (we'll say 15-minute updates) does Squall need to win now? I think it's just over 10, but I'd like a more exact number please.

15 votes/15 min. updates.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Vincent shoots back up to 583.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Okay, that was a big jump from Vince.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Match 55: (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (3) Tifa Lockheart

Past Performances

Sonic the Hedgehog

Summer 2005
Beat Jin Kazama, 76.15% - 23.85%
Beat Diablo, 68.55% - 31.45%

Win - Lose Record
10-3

Tifa Lockheart

Summer 2005
Beat Vyse, 78.07% - 21.93%
Beat Luigi Mario, 53.36% - 46.64%

Win - Lose Record
2-0

Analysis

Hey, it’s the last of the three divisions I perfectly predicted. Sonic should win this match; the only question is how much? There’s only a slight chance for Tifa to win, but you have to give her the best case scenario and Sonic the worst, but I don’t think he can do that.

After Diablo losing to Ganondorf many people thought that Sonic would do roughly the same thing to Diablo, but Sonic ends up doing 3% better. This could be because Sonic gained, but it could also be because the villains contest was overrated. We really don’t know the answer here. Like Vincent, Tifa was overrated in her first round match and struggled with Luigi. I think this puts most if not all the Tifa > Sonic supporters away.

The best case scenario for Tifa is if KOS-MOS became constant and that would put Luigi to almost Sonic’s level and since Tifa beat Luigi she should beat Sonic. The only problem with that is Bowser’s match against Ryu also showed that he could’ve dropped making Luigi’s performance look not as good plus there is the possibility that Sonic too could’ve gained.

Now where Luigi ranks is the problem. With the Nintendo boost and his match with KOS-MOS shows that Luigi most likely have gained. He could be ahead of Yoshi, but I don’t think he’ll be ahead of Bowser so the highest I think Tifa would get is 45%.

With the match all over the place Tifa could get anything from 45% to 34%. People like me are probably only using this match results for matches in the future. I think Sonic could have a good chance on breaking 60% tomorrow, but anything can happen.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog over Tifa Lockheart

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic wins, 60.92% - 39.08%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Coupled with Squall dropping. Both of them tend to have these little spurts out of nowhere.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

:(

There is some serious sad panda action going on here. Well I can still hope Squall gets his ass in gear, but I'm headed out for my brother's birthday...

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Explicit Content
Back on even a crappier name!

Sonic gets 60% on Tifa??? That seems a little high...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Hey, that's fine if Vincent got slightly weaker in the night against Dante and Kerrigan (who's Blizzard, FYI, and we've seen Starcraft)...but let's see some stats like that for Squall too; I'm pretty sure Knuckles carried his day-vote into the night against Squall, and I don't think Geno got hurt all that badly by it.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Squall's average vote against Knuckles from 12:00 to 15:00 was 51.60%

Squall's average vote against Knuckles from 15:00 to 18:00 was 52.00%

Squall's average vote against Geno from 12:00 to 15:00 was 74.90%

Squall's average vote against Geno from 15:00 to 18:00 was 74.30%

He showed slight improvement against Knuckles and fell apart against Geno. And technically that's not the night vote. That's pre-night vote. It stops right before the night vote starts.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Sonic gets 60% on Tifa??? That seems a little high...

Not really, but she has a large range though.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

I think he went back down 10 just now.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

I hate it when Squall wins small updates, though it's better than Vincent winning them, because we all know Vincent is just going to storm back in a fit of fury with one update and erase all of Squall's work.

Now if somebody would get their ass out of the shower I could get ready.

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Explicit Content
Back on even a crappier name!

Ah; that'll teach me for bein' slightly mistaken. Could you show the stats between those four matches from 6:00 PM to the end of their matches?

As a side-note, I hhhhaaaatttteeee this computer I'm on; it almost makes me mad that I come home on weekends...almost.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

1. Crono - 50.00%
2. Master Chief - 38.71%
3. Donkey Kong - 38.10%
4. Tommy Vercetti - 29.15%
5. Kefka Palazzo - 28.49%
6. Sam Fisher - 26.85%
7. CATS - 24.13%
8. Zidane Tribal - 23.28%

CATS stronger than Zidane.

LMAO
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Ugh... I hate you Vincent.

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Explicit Content
Back on even a crappier name!

I didn't look at the night vote since the patterns of their opponent is too distinct in them. Blizzard is clearly good with it whereas Knuckles is clearly comparitively bad with it. Geno is unknown and you can't compare with just Dante.

Well, let's see their night vote records anyway.

Vincent's average vote against Dante from 19:30 to Final was 55.05%

Vincent's average vote against Kerrigan from 19:30 to Final was 77.80%

Squall's average vote against Knuckles from 19:30 to Final was 57.10%

Squall's average vote against Knuckles from 19:30 to Final was 73.75%

Blah. IT MEANS NOTHING. But it was fun to do.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

That should be

Squall's average vote against Geno from 19:30 to Final was 73.75%

>_<
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

my heart...and bracket....are falling apart...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

....

No. >_<

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Ouch. Squall just rolled over and died there.
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm

131, what a stinker.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Good show, Squall. Good show.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Now does eveyone agree that it's over.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

It's not over until Romero sings.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

This has been over for hours. Only hopeful Squall fanboys still believed :P.

grr, you'll eat your words when Squall wins.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

Damn! Very nice job Vince. Squall's not looking good right now.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Squall can still get a massive, massive night vote. I'm still fully confident in that. ;)

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Everybody but Slowflake, I hope.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

How many matches were there mass cheating for one character/game has there been?

3

Squall has a 1% chance on winning.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)