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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 241
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:49:52 AM | Message Detail
"Was Master Chief's prediction percentage 38.42% before the fix? "

It was 38.1% IIRC, if you want I can double check.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: consolefreak | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:49:56 AM | Message Detail
Vincent's vote trend seems to fall in line with how FFVII normally does. It's weaker during the first night vote, good with the day vote, and then carries that on into the second night vote. At best, I could see Squall and Vincent going even with the day vote, but there's nothing here that suggests Squall is actually the favorite.

Well, the winner is the one who takes the day vote, and I just see Squall taking it. Vincent's on a roll right now though.


And I don't think his optional status is hurting him much at all, to be honest. Although Tifa beating Squall by more than this isn't something I would consider unlikely. Hell, Tifa's voting patterns tend to have her performing better during the night than during the day. Heh.

If he wasn't optional, I could see him being pretty close to Vincent.

What?! I didn't bring that up. I was commenting from what transcience had said. I don't know the whole mess surrounding -- I'm assuming some argument broke out -- but I was just commenting on how ridiculous that sounds.

I'm the one (only one) supporting that thought (before the match started). Snake's percentage on Sora was ridiculously high, certainly after Sora overperformed against Alucard.


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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/84. Today: Magus, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:50:22 AM | Message Detail
157.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeees.

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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:50:33 AM | Message Detail
Yep, 38.1%. Just checked.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:50:50 AM | Message Detail
*dies*
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:50:53 AM | Message Detail
I had a mental orgasm just now. :)

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:51:09 AM | Message Detail
Don't seem to want to get to far away from 150, do they? :P Ah well, bedtime.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:51:21 AM | Message Detail
Squall bites back again. Though that was more just Vincent sucking on that update.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:51:25 AM | Message Detail
Damn. Vincent only had 97 votes that update. He's dropped off a lot within the past two updates.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:51:36 AM | Message Detail
"Also, I believe Dirge of 3-headed dog not an RPG (correct me if I am wrong here) so it might turn off some FF fans."

Vincent + DMC gameplay = Win, as far as I'm concerned. It's clear that even the most devout FF fans will dip into other genres and that being action oriented (KH, anybody?) won't stop them from loving it if it's a good game.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:52:22 AM | Message Detail
You know, this match (assuming this continues) and Kirby/Bowser are making serious cases for Mario/Samus being much closer than most of us dare to think.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:52:46 AM | Message Detail
How about Kerrigan, The King of all Cosmos and Manny Calavera. The nominations heavily favored the board this time around, it lasted much shorter than the other nomination periods, and was only on the main page for a few days, for most of it there was simply a link from Ceej on this board.

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:53:16 AM | Message Detail
I don't know why I forgot about Dirge... I wouldn't doubt him being up the strongest character aside from Cloud and Link.

You don't know how happy I would be to see that. Hail to the Immortal Badass. <3

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Mugen no Jyuunin | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:53:48 AM | Message Detail
Vincent + DMC gameplay = Win, as far as I'm concerned. It's clear that even the most devout FF fans will dip into other genres and that being action oriented (KH, anybody?) won't stop them from loving it if it's a good game.

5+ million copies sold. I'd say you have a point. <_<;;

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<_<
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:53:52 AM | Message Detail
Vincent surpassing Sephiroth? Yeah, I wish.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:54:05 AM | Message Detail
"You know, this match (assuming this continues) and Kirby/Bowser are making serious cases for Mario/Samus being much closer than most of us dare to think"

Actually Mario vs. Zero made me think Mario/Samus was goign to be a lot closer than any of us expected before the tournament started. I'll be disapointed if Smaus wins comfortably, even though I'll be breathing very easily.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: transience | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:54:24 AM | Message Detail
you know, I find the name "dirge of cerberus" to be awful. also, I'm quite skeptical about Square doing a DMC ripoff. show me a good game and I'll believe, but a character does not make a game to me.
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From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:54:47 AM | Message Detail
Vincent surpassing Sephiroth? Yeah, I wish.

You may as well say Samus as well then, because Sephiroth has been dropping like a rock since the beggining of these.

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From: Starion | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:55:32 AM | Message Detail
Well, you better hope it's more KH than "The Bouncer." There is an inherent risk of sucking when creating a game that's outside of a company's specialty (obviously Square = RPG). Remember Ergheiz?
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:55:53 AM | Message Detail
I'll probably play it because I love DMC style game, I eat up the DMC's, I ate up GoW, and I will continue to do so, provided the games don't suck.

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From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:56:17 AM | Message Detail
20 vote lead? Ouch.

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From: consolefreak | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:56:28 AM | Message Detail
I've seen 0 evidence to indicate that FF is at any sort of low point since then. The only character to noticably underperform their 2k3 mark since then without fair reasoning is Sephiroth, and if you've heard what I've had to say in the past then you know there's a chance that had a reason behing it too.

Link beat Cloud after losing to him. That, and Sephiroth.

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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/84. Today: Magus, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:56:32 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, the thing that worries me about DoC was that KH, while fun, wasn't exactly the epitome of a perfect battle system or merciful camera. And other forays into different genres have ended up flat on their face (The Bouncer). In other words, while I'll probably get it since I'm a Vincent mark, I'll have to see it to believe it.

Oh, and nice gain from Vincent there.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:56:54 AM | Message Detail
lead = gain >_>

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From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:57:21 AM | Message Detail
You may as well say Samus as well then, because Sephiroth has been dropping like a rock since the beggining of these.

Well, since 2003, anyway. He went up from KH just like Cloud and Squall. Vincent wins this update.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:57:22 AM | Message Detail
Square knows damn well that they cannot make something FFVII suck. In multiple interviews, they talk about how they're putting far extra effort into this compilation than other games for that reason.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: transience | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:57:47 AM | Message Detail
every time I get my hopes up, Vincent runs 20 votes ahead again. dammit, I want a close match.
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From: Mugen no Jyuunin | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:57:48 AM | Message Detail
Link beat Cloud after losing to him. That, and Sephiroth.

Er... I thought that Link made it fairly clear that he had boosted in 2004, and that Cloud didn't appear to have dropped at all. <_<

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<_<
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:58:27 AM | Message Detail
Link beat Cloud after losing to him.

You can make the case that Cloud did the same, and that everyone from Zelda has encountered a boost. So seph would be your only arguement.

For the record I have Cloud > Link. Though, I'm starting to doubt it with this Nintendo frenzy.

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From: Starion | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:58:33 AM | Message Detail
It's still close. Even a 300 lead can easily be wiped out during the heavier voting hours.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:58:41 AM | Message Detail
consolefreak doesn't exactly make it habit to verify the results beyond their face value...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: consolefreak | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:58:42 AM | Message Detail
I think DoC will be a rather bad game, actually. I've read some bad reviews on Advent Children, and I'd wager Square put a lot more time, money and effort in the movie than in DoC.

Also, action is simply not their property and the previews on DoC have been very sceptical.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/84. Today: Magus, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:58:43 AM | Message Detail
You know, Sephiroth's going to remove that decline business when he beats the winner of the main bracket without a lot of trouble.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:59:50 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, the thing that worries me about DoC was that KH, while fun, wasn't exactly the epitome of a perfect battle system or merciful camera.

I think I'm the only person who enjoyed that battle system, and the camera wasn't RE bad, though not great.

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From: transience | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:00:16 AM | Message Detail
Square can put all the effort they want in, but the fact remains that they've never made an action game that's any good. they're going to need to make it with good gameplay or they're screwed, FF7 or not.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:01:14 AM | Message Detail
I think DoC will be a rather bad game, actually. I've read some bad reviews on Advent Children,

First, the two don't have much to do with each other. The biggest criticism the movie has gotten is that people who have not played FFVII will not enjoy it as much as those who have (Surprise, surprise!) Other than that, there hasn't been much negative thoughts on Advent Children. The people who saw it at Venice gave it a standing ovation through the credits. There's been far more good than there has bad about the movie.

and I'd wager Square put a lot more time, money and effort in the movie than in DoC.

Advent Children isn't bad, so there doesn't appear to be a problem now does there?

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:02:16 AM | Message Detail
Actually, it looks like Dirge of Cerberus will be more 3rd person shooter than DMC... There is even supposed to be an optional first-person view. I doubt it will play like DMC if you can play it in first person...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:02:34 AM | Message Detail
Another increase by Vincent, though the updater didn't register it. Still looking to be very close...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:02:34 AM | Message Detail
"How about Kerrigan, The King of all Cosmos and Manny Calavera"

77 and one seed above Vincent with his 24
22 and tied Vincent
19 and quite a bit behind Vincent

Vincent was a 5 seed and had about the same level of support from the board as those last two, one of which I can assure you had a good deal of support outside of board 8 (I saw KoaC support on other boards myself) which the other did not (though he obviously had some). Just to put it into further perspective, Strider had 23 noms from the board and missed the contest all together. Vincent did not take a 5 seed based solely on this board, and if not one single person off this board nommed Kerrigan (how likely is that?) then it's fair to assume nearly twice his support came from off B8.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:03:08 AM | Message Detail
SC2K5's updater missed an update.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Aran
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:03:28 AM | Message Detail
"Remember Ergheiz?"

Nope :p
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:03:55 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: consolefreak | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:04:17 AM | Message Detail
You can make the case that Cloud did the same, and that everyone from Zelda has encountered a boost. So seph would be your only arguement.

There's also Tidus, Aerith and Squall (although Squall got SFF'd, his performance against Samus was very
impressive). Anyway, Sephiroth is more than enough evidence on his own.

I thought 2k3 being FF's year was obvious?


For the record I have Cloud > Link. Though, I'm starting to doubt it with this Nintendo frenzy.

I have Cloud > Link as well. I think Link breaking 55% is a lot more likely than Cloud winning at this point though.

consolefreak doesn't exactly make it habit to verify the results beyond their face value...

Yeah, because you know me so well, don't you.

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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/84. Today: Magus, tomorrow: Sonic
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:04:18 AM | Message Detail
"Link beat Cloud after losing to him"

Evidence shows clearly that eithre Link increased or the entire field (not jsut FF but EVERYTHING) decreased.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:04:27 AM | Message Detail
It's Ehrgeiz, dammit!

"God Bless the Ring"

Horrible battle system, though the RPG mode was actually tolerable. <_<
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:05:00 AM | Message Detail
"Remember Ehrgeiz?"

I actually liked that game. *Ducks bricks*
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:05:24 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, because you know me so well, don't you.

You think that Ganondorf has decreased. So, yeah.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:06:06 AM | Message Detail
For the past few matches, the updater has been missing updates and adding them to the next for a few updates in the early morning. Most people are asleep so I don't know if I'm the only one that has been noticing it...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:06:15 AM | Message Detail
193 vote lead.

Damnit Squall, I haven't slept for a bit over 24 hours. Quickly, lead!

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 2:06:45 AM | Message Detail
There's also Tidus, Aerith and Squall (although Squall got SFF'd, his performance against Samus was very
impressive). Anyway, Sephiroth is more than enough evidence on his own.

1) Y HALO THAR FFX, I won't even bother arguing that I don't think Tidus dropped.
2. Y HALO THAT 2k3. I won't even bother arguing how retarded the name Aerith is.
3) Y HALO THAR CLOUD, and Y HALO THAR MR. VALENTINE AKA MR. UNKNOWN. I won't even bother arguing how we don't have solid stats on Squall.

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