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Summer 2005 Contest
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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 241
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:00:48 AM | Message Detail
What, you mean the link where every single person underestimated Vincent's percentage on Kerrigan by 6.1% or more? That only strengthens our argument.

Oh come on, not even the Vincent supporters thought he was going to hit that high, if you try and say they did, then they would have been saying he could take out Crono before that match, as NO ONE thought Kerrigan was that incredibly weak.

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:01:19 AM | Message Detail
Those that took Squall over Magus weren't willing to take Vincent over Magus either, in a way.

. . .


What the hell? How? I would have taken Vincent over Squall and Magus, which I did for the former. Picking Squall to win didn't mean that they weren't willing to take Vincent over Magus.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:01:32 AM | Message Detail
"Apparently, it is possible to make even less sense than calling 55% a blowout."

Who said blowout? Doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile, winning is winning and Vincent never had a shot at doing anything other than just that against Dante. Plus, if you read it closely it says "insist", meaning that anyone that said Vincent didn't have more than an outside shot of winning is indeed insane.

"While we're at it - everyone who doubted that Kirby would beat Tidus is clinically insane. Book it."

Agreed. I called THAT before the contest started, after all.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:02:19 AM | Message Detail
Tifa beating Luigi with less than 44%?

O.o
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:02:20 AM | Message Detail
Well, what did you expect people to do, not come up with semi-plausible reasons to back up their decisions? If you had Kerrigan over Vincent, the next best route to seek to justify Dante winning, or Terra (>_>) was to admit that Kerrigan was always weak. It's better for yourself than admitting your bracket is doomed.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:03:13 AM | Message Detail
What the hell? How? I would have taken Vincent over Squall and Magus, which I did for the former. Picking Squall to win didn't mean that they weren't willing to take Vincent over Magus.

? You picked Squall over Magus? Why aren't you on the leaderboard yet? What matches did you get wrong?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:03:33 AM | Message Detail
"So if that's so, why is it so INSANE to say that he would lose to Dante in an absolute squeaker."

You even managed to bold the word "insist". Again, the peopel I'm mostly pointing at is anyone like charmander who wouldn't accept that Vincent winning wasn't just possible but likely. People discounted the possibility of Vincent making it this far, that's insane.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: andaca | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:03:38 AM | Message Detail
Original Sin - Old and Busted.

Accidentally overestimating Kerrigan- New Hotness.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:03:41 AM | Message Detail
Who exactly thinks Cloud has no chance in that match? As far as I've noticed, while a majority of people think Link will win, no one is seriously discounting the possibility for Cloud to pull off a win.

I'll keep this to the stats topic, as the board speaks for itself. People on Board 8 thought Cloud wouldn't have won with Advent Children, so we'll ignore those choice people. But I've seen people saying that they wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if Link got upwards to 55% against Cloud. I remember someone else stating that Cloud's chances were basically none with how Nintendo was performing. Nearly everyone in here is giving Link a serious advantage against Cloud. Honestly, I would expect many people in here to be surprised if Cloud were to win.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:04:25 AM | Message Detail
He'd give Crono a really good match

But he wouldn't, it was idiotic to think he would and not exactly much better than saying he would win.

Some were saying he equaled Mario, for Christ's sake. it got very annoying.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Aran
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:05:06 AM | Message Detail
You picked Squall over Magus? Why aren't you on the leaderboard yet? What matches did you get wrong?

I picked Auron over Ganon. I'm at 76 points right now, so I'm just waiting to bust onto the leaderboard.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: ernest | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:05:16 AM | Message Detail
well vincent has this in the bag now and i'm off to japanese school now. see ya all later
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:05:25 AM | Message Detail
What the hell? How? I would have taken Vincent over Squall and Magus, which I did for the former. Picking Squall to win didn't mean that they weren't willing to take Vincent over Magus.

Most people took Magus to win the division. After that, I'm guessing, most people took Squall. The same people that were confident enough to take Squall were probably confident enough to support him all the way. Magus was too much of an opponent to doubt Squall's strength afterwards. IE, the people that backed Squall against Magus (not an extremely popular pick) aren't going to be the same people to not support him against Vincent.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:05:59 AM | Message Detail
Okay... I can accept that.

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:06:01 AM | Message Detail
Whoa. Squall actually won that update. He brought Vincent's lead down from 169 to 158.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Jericoholic | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:06:06 AM | Message Detail
Squall shaved some off that update.

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:06:15 AM | Message Detail
Uh...TEH COMEBACK?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:06:28 AM | Message Detail
Returning to the match for a moment, Squall just took 11 votes off of Vincent's lead. :P
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:06:30 AM | Message Detail
"But he wouldn't, it was idiotic to think he would and not exactly much better than saying he would win."

Did you see Crono yesterday? As much as I hate to say it he still might give Crono a good match.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: Jericoholic | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:07:00 AM | Message Detail
Fact or Fiction: This poll will be a barn burner.

I like to think FACT, since we haven't had one of those yet.

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:08:05 AM | Message Detail
I know I'd take Dante over Master Chief, though admitedly not by more than 52-48.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:08:14 AM | Message Detail
Mmm, fiction. Squall'l take 6-8 updates and Vincent will win the rest for a comfy 52-48 finish with no scares.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: andaca | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:08:14 AM | Message Detail
Doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile, winning is winning

No one who didn't have Frog beating Master Chief and Liquid was called an idiot. Especially after two razor thin matches. Clearly, the size of a win has something to do with it. To claim that a match involving two characters who are both at completely unknown strengths is a given, you'd had to be some sort of egomaniac or something.

Hm.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:08:29 AM | Message Detail
Fact or Fiction: This poll will be a barn burner.

Fiction: I think Vincent will have a strong day vote over Squall. I expect him to at least get it up to 52-53%.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:08:36 AM | Message Detail
Yay, go squall!

I think Link somewhat deserves to be the favorite. He did just win the last contest, so that's sort of enough to support him again this year. We know that the matches can flip flop between the two, so it was definitely more than reasonable to support Cloud against Link this year. But you can't ignore that people were looking for Advent Children to help seal the deal against Link. Coupled with the Nintendo boost (and it's been seen a good number of times at this point) calling Link the favorite, and being confident in it, isn't that huge of a suprise.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:09:21 AM | Message Detail
This contest has become really exciting now. This match is shaping up to be close, if not ever in doubt. Tifa still has a slim shot at Sonic. Mega needs to verify his strength against a probably boosted Yoshi. Then we have Mario/Samus, Bowser/Snake, Sonic/Mega Man, and perhaps even Crono might get a run for his money (I seriously doubt it, but whatever). Then we have the Final Four and the Finals and the ToC, which should all be good. Good stuff.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:09:31 AM | Message Detail
As much as I hate to agree with Chiciri, I'm about to do so in two straight posts.

Did you see Crono yesterday? As much as I hate to say it he still might give Crono a good match.

If you say less than 55 is a good match, yeah he will, or Squall for the matter as the lead is nowhere close to the point of no return, though I'm favoring Vincent to win. Crono performed disgustingly.

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From: transience | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:10:23 AM | Message Detail
hey, Squall won an update.

if Cloud beats Link, gloating will and should happen. Cloud is the underdog. I guarantee you that when Oracle time comes, Link's at least a 3:1 favourite. I will be glad to see Cloud gloating if he pulls off the upset, just like I was glad to see Knuckles gloating from anyone who took him.

Vincent, on the other hand, is the favourite right now. acting like no one expected him to win is ignoring what everyone's been saying for weeks, even months. this is the first match where bragging is even close to being warranted, as more than ten people out of 100 will take Squall. that'll be the first time.

now I've gotta stay up for one more update.
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:10:24 AM | Message Detail
The people who were calling for Vincent to possibly double Dante are just as foolish as those saying Dante might possibly win. If anything, it's easier to make a case for the first group looking worse.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:10:38 AM | Message Detail
Big cut by Squall there.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: transience | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:10:38 AM | Message Detail
whoa. okay, one more.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:10:57 AM | Message Detail
Holy crap!
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:11:11 AM | Message Detail
Heh. Squall cuts into the lead again. Worrisome? You betcha. :P
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:11:39 AM | Message Detail
What in the hell? Squall had 57% of the vote that update! O_O

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:11:42 AM | Message Detail
I like to think FACT, since we haven't had one of those yet.

For the question Fiction, though I'm hoping. And we have had a barn burner, even if it involved Vote Stuffing. That match was insanely addicting and fun to watch, until after the votes were subtracted. So technically there was, and technically there wasn't, depending on your PoV.

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From: Jericoholic | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:11:48 AM | Message Detail
I think he took like 30 votes. He boosted his percent by .5%

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:11:56 AM | Message Detail
Looks like I'll get to sleep soon enough. ;)

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:12:01 AM | Message Detail
Fact or Fiction: This poll will be a barn burner.

I think the barn's burning right now... but I also think there's a good chance Squall will have taken control within an hour and won't look back.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:12:14 AM | Message Detail
OH. MY. GOD.

I love the Squall.

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From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:12:29 AM | Message Detail
Actually, he sliced off 41 votes that update. Teh ouchzors.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:12:38 AM | Message Detail
What the hell was that? Did Squall hit a Limit Break?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:13:00 AM | Message Detail
"No one who didn't have Frog beating Master Chief and Liquid was called an idiot."

Did I say idiot? Frankly, considering the fact that I'm the person most well known for getting into heated arguments that boarder on flame wars, I've been a bit reserved. I didn't call anyone an idiot, I said it was insane to say that Vincent over Squall/Dante was only an outside possibility.

And don't tell me people weren't saying it, they were, and in droves. I don't feel like going through the archieves to show you. Doubt my memory on it? Look yourself, TRE has it all. People as known as char were INSISTING that Dante would beat Vincent and people like Lopen were even more adamant about it. After Vincent "barely" beat Dante people were saying he had no shot at Squall and they were wrong too. It was said, and those people were/are INSANE.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:13:03 AM | Message Detail
No, not yet. He took a Hero. :P

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: AKsellout | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:13:23 AM | Message Detail
Sorry. I'm a little late.

It was not an "extreme miniority." That's quite possibly the stupidest thing I have heard. This board does doubt what Final Fantasy VII can do, especially when it's up against someone like Blizzard

75% of bracket makers had Vincent winning that match. I'd say that places the Kerrigan supporters firmly in the minority. But there were a few, extremely vocal people touting K's strength. I think that's what you're remembering here.
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"Timshel...Thou Mayest" - East of Eden.
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:13:30 AM | Message Detail
The people who were calling for Vincent to possibly double Dante are just as foolish as those saying Dante might possibly win. If anything, it's easier to make a case for the first group looking worse.

Very good case, but no one's allowed to bring that up yo, because he won, so hush.

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:13:31 AM | Message Detail
Honestly, that was Squall's biggest win of the night. That's just ridiculous. <.<

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:14:11 AM | Message Detail
The poll has only been open for an hour or so... <.<
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: transience | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:14:16 AM | Message Detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23442920

a reason to vote for Squall if there ever was one.
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From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:14:33 AM | Message Detail
He'll have many more of them.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Ars Arcanum13 | Posted: 9/10/2005 1:15:15 AM | Message Detail
Lead to 131. :(

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