Come on kirby, Break 48%
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.

I don't think he's gonna hit 48% at this point. Bowser appears to be stalling enough with the night vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

We can always dream though, right?

<_<
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Kurotsuchi Mayuri fan
Supporter of Squall Leonhart in the Summer 2k5 Character Battle IV

Oh, and we FINALLY passed Yoshi/Pac-Man, so this match should be safe from hitting the bottom.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Yeah, this match has got really bad vote totals. Granted, that's a given, being that it's SFF, but it's still disappointing.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Since I'm about to go to bed, and the percentage isn't likely to change drastically:

Preliminary Dream Division stats

Bowser Koopa - 50.00%
Kirby - 47.84%
Ryu - 41.02%
Tidus - 40.52%
Rikku - 36.33%
Chun-Li - 34.10%
Cecil Harvey - 23.72%
King of All Cosmos - 22.25%

Tidus did a lot better than I thought he would. Half a percent behind Ryu?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Oh, and Tidus gets 55.17% on Rikku by these numbers.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Hmmm...Tidus gets (about) 49.39% on Ryu this year, yet Tidus ADJUSTED only gets 42.48% on Ryu last year. It's hard to tell what happened here, but I'm gonna list off a list of possiblities and I'll let people add to it or dismiss (this is assuming we can still put our stats from last year into use, which is seriously in question nowadays)...

--Ryu legitimately dropped.
--Ryu getting Street Fighter: Anniversary Collection shortly before Ryu/Sonic over-rated him in 2k4.
--Tidus legitimately gained.
--Tidus under-performed against Mega Man.
--Kirby is gettin' some rSFF on Bowser due to the SSB/M fanbase.

...there's five
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Looks more like #1. I don't think Tidus would ever be equal to Rikku or below her. Meh, if you hold Bowser steady from the Spring, Tidus does gain about a percent from his adjusted number though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Corno >>> Cronp

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Can't think of a good sig.

I'd buy any of those five, actually. Many people won't agree to Ryu legitimately dropping, but maybe he's one of those characters that gets hurt with the voting shift (or when more casuals are voting in general). 2003 may serve as a good indicator for this.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

#2 would help explain KOS-MOS some, to note.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

And I'll believe rSFF when we have solid proof of it. Until then, I'll remain HIGHLY skeptical.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

I'd probably take Donkey Kong over Knux.

Yikes. I wouldn't do that, ever.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

I like number five because it makes me think Bowser still has a change against Snake.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

maybe he's one of those characters that gets hurt with the voting shift (or when more casuals are voting in general). 2003 may serve as a good indicator for this.

Funny you say this, seeing as how he beat Dante in arguably his best year in 2k3. Regardless, I know what ya mean and you might have a case NOW...but I don't think that's been the case for anything involving the first three contests.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

It doesn't really matter if he's hurt by voting shifts if he's still stronger than Dante regardless.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

I'd buy all of them but the rSFF at this point, and maybe a random Tidus underperformance. Tidus being lower fits in perfectly with him being in the Magus fourpack, but I'd look to Ryu dropping, or even Bowser being overrated than I would Kirby rSFFing Bowser. In theory it looks nice, but in theory Magus rSFFing Crono looks nice, too. I'm willing to always accept the potential for it to rise one day, but this performance just looks like Kirby being legitimately strong to me.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

--Ryu legitimately dropped.
Yes, unless you believe Kirby is an elite...

Ryu getting Street Fighter: Anniversary Collection shortly before Ryu/Sonic over-rated him in 2k4.
Well...I don't think little releases like that will make much of an impact. I think he would've been at that strength regardless, and that the huge demographic shift this year just hurt him.

Tidus legitimately gained.
Maybe...but Kirby and Bowser are high enough assuming 20XX-adjusted 2K4 Tidus, and I'd take Ryu decreasing before Tidus increasing significantly...

--Tidus under-performed against Mega Man.
Looking at today...possibly a little bit, but probably none at all.

--Kirby is gettin' some rSFF on Bowser due to the SSB/M fanbase.
No...I think the whole SSBM fanbase thing is extremely overrated.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I think the whole SSBM fanbase thing is extremely overrated.

We have a winner. The fanbases for most of those characters were established long before that game came along.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

looks like Bowser may avoid falling below 52%
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

For what it's worth, I was gonna believe rSFF before I believed in SFF yesterday when thinkin' 'bout today's match. Kirby and Bowser have fairly different fanbases in their respective series, then Kirby most likely has the SSB/M voters' majority of votes. However, I'm not ready to give rSFF much credit yet, although I'm not ashamed to say it's a respectable possibility.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

No...I think the whole SSBM fanbase thing is extremely overrated.

I most certainly agree with this.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Why would there be a significant SSBM vote? You think there's a large number of people who vote solely based on that game and how good the characters in it are?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

I really think it is the voter shift rather than Ryu actually dropping. With the DS released, there are plenty of games out that would cause more Nintendo fans to come on to GameFAQs. As much as I didn't want to give Super Mario 64 DS any credit, it IS released to a whole new generation of gamers who will be eager to try to find all of the stars and secrets. Mastermage may have been right all along.

Kirby may also be overperforming in this match. A rare sweet 16 appearance may have caused Kirby to have a bandwagon-like performance against Bowser, especially with that great match pic, and fans of both figuring Bowser had the match in the bag. If it's all Kirby though, more power to him!
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Consider also that if Snake's sprite against Ryu had an impact akin to what many think Solid **** had on Frog (just not to the same degree), it's possibly that he was hurt in 2k3 but was overrated due to that one match, too. Though that sounds incredibly lame and flimsy, now that I think about it.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Even though I like Bowser's chances better with rSFF, I doubt it's really happening. Just because most people don't use Bowser or Kirby, I doubt many have a preference for either in the game.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

And I still say that was more Frog than Snake in that match. We've seen what Magus has done in a similar situation, but yet everyone's hesitant to give credit to Frog for it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Well, I'm not exactly prepared to give Magus all the credit against Bible Link, either. <__<
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

You missed the "Characters and polls are more than arbitrary sets of percentages and the voters are not transitive robots" option, HaRRicH.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, Mario 64 DS, Advance Wars, Grim Fandango

Consider also that if Snake's sprite against Ryu had an impact akin to what many think Solid **** had on Frog (just not to the same degree), it's possibly that he was hurt in 2k3 but was overrated due to that one match, too. Though that sounds incredibly lame and flimsy, now that I think about it.

I've always wondered why that match is hardly ever brought up, as it does serve as great evidence of Ryu choking when the vote totals go up. People are all too quick to sing praises for the CT sprites, but Ryu's sprite is just as good (if not better) and he was up against Solid ****, so why the weak performance?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Meh, the whole "Man, these old school sprites suck so nobody likes them" idea is a bit out of hand.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

And I still say that was more Frog than Snake in that match. We've seen what Magus has done in a similar situation, but yet everyone's hesitant to give credit to Frog for it.

I've been claiming the bandwagon effect for years now. I just said that Solid **** enticed more people to jump on the bandwagon knowing that Frog would lose anyways. "Hey, it's Frog in all of his sprite glory".
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Meh, the whole "Man, these old school sprites suck so nobody likes them" idea is a bit out of hand.

Sprites generally make ugly battle pics. While I wouldn't really care much, I don't think they're a great option for these later, more anticipated rounds.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Not so much solely based off of SSB/M as coupled with SSB/M. I never cared about Zelda (or Sheik) until SSBM, and Link is #3 on my all-time faves...but now, she'd get my vote over a fair share of characters. Meanwhile, I really like Mario in his main games, but I never liked using him in SSB/M (or many/any of his side-games, too), so him being in it doesn't gain him any favoritism from me.

I don't think rSFF would be a big factor here anyways, but I would believe it if it's still a factor. Their original fan-bases may be established, but this is essentially a battle of three fan-bases clashing between two characters.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

You missed the "Characters and polls are more than arbitrary sets of percentages and the voters are not transitive robots" option, HaRRicH.

To be fair, I did note that this is assuming that last year's stats are worth using when considering the options I laid out. If you don't think they're worth using (and it'd be easy to argue for that), then the rest of the post becomes useless.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I don't see what's wrong with this line of logic. I'm not gonna vote for Dhalsim if I think he sucks, for example. it's a little different with SSBM since they have other games to fall back on, but some people haven't played Kirby games.

Dhalsim doesn't suck, by the way.

anyway, I'm nappin' it, so Bowser with 52%.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

I don't think last year's stats, adjusted or not, are too valid. Too much SFF and guesswork, and when we tried falling back on 2003, it didn't work out. Kirby is essentially proving to be near-elite, and years-old stats can't factor in the present.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, Mario 64 DS, Advance Wars, Grim Fandango

I'll say Bowser with 56.75%.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I support what you're saying Ulti, but Ryu was SFF-free in his entire line. Tidus arguably was, too, so they should at least be somewhat close to what they were predicted to be this year...and they weren't, even by adjusted Tidus.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I never realized it before, but based off of performances by Solid Snake, Samus, Crono, Sonic, and Mario, all of them appear to have, at best, one percentage point separating them.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

If Tidus was truly SFF-free, then the gap between him and Ryu is even larger as you'd have to use his unadjusted number.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Heh. If Sonic's value of 39.56% is accurate, he could get as high as 61% on Tifa in the upcoming match and she would still rank at 31% on 2004 Link -- 34% on BL.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

but based off of performances by Solid Snake, Samus, Crono, Sonic, and Mario, all of them appear to have, at best, one percentage point separating them.

That would rock so hard if that were truly the case.

Oh, and what is the Noble Nine after tomorrow? Is it 89-0 against non-Noble Nine opponents? At this rate, it looks like the only hurdle to clear is Bowser. We stand a good chance of reaching 100-0 now, looks like.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Tidus = Squall, Kirby > Squall, Bowser > Squall.

^^^ Truths.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Aran

Tidus = Squall?

No.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

That would rock so hard if that were truly the case.

I agree completely. That would be nothing short of incredible and it we wouldn't have a clue on who the winner of the main bracket would be.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Man, Kirby's getting so close to 48%...Here's hoping he gets it in the next two hours.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Which would bring up even more questions about how they're so close now. I merely threw it out there to show that, even with it, there's still a big gap between the two.


I'm seriously about...

||

...this close to saying our old stats are now useless. They've still come in handy some though, and we don't have much else to make comparisons from, so I'm gonna keep using them. I'm convinced we've had a large voter shift this year though, which would validate the Spring Contest more.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I don't ever think Tidus has been on the level of post-KH Squall. He was almost certainly overrated in 2k3, and he showed his true colors in 2k4 by folding against Mega Man.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!