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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 238
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:37:42 PM | Message Detail
54% update for Kirby there. Nice.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:39:09 PM | Message Detail
... is it just me, or do our vote totals suck?

6000 below Ganondorf-Samus, this match could easily challenge for worst vote total of the contest (currently 84270, by Yoshi-Pacman.)
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:42:00 PM | Message Detail
I'm pulling for a Kirby upset. I know it's completely impossible, and I like Bowser better, but it'd be too awesome to pass up.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:47:00 PM | Message Detail
Too late. Low vote totals + breaking the 3,000 vote barrier = Bowser/Snake in the elite eight

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 69/76 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:47:39 PM | Message Detail
Bowser seems determined to stay above 3500 on Kirby.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:50:30 PM | Message Detail
And Kirby has cracked 47%!
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:51:12 PM | Message Detail
Rather, Kirby seems determined to stay below 4,000 against Bowser.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:51:20 PM | Message Detail
Aw. At least make it a bit closer, Kirbster...
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:52:23 PM | Message Detail
At this point, I'm ready to concede that Bowser won't be beating Snake. Damn. It was such a great upset pick, too.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:52:34 PM | Message Detail
A bit closer? This is an unprecedented performance by Kirby...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:53:39 PM | Message Detail
I know. I'm talking about Kirby "finishing" his comeback and ending at about... say, 47.8-48%.

I like Bowser too, though. Yay, everybody.
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:53:53 PM | Message Detail
It's to Kirby's credit that he's stymieing Bowser, but he's yet to mark more than 200 from Bowser's biggest lead at his absolute peak.

That'll probably happen soon, perhaps even next update.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:54:10 PM | Message Detail
Well aprosenf, it still may be viable if Canvas Curse was a ridiculous boost for Kirby. But likely, Snake>Bowser>Zelda.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 69/76 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:54:42 PM | Message Detail
Yay everybody indeed.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:55:06 PM | Message Detail
Here's to hoping Kirby got a MASSIVE boost from Canvas Curse, for my bracket's sake. *Crosses fingers*
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/8/2005 3:56:04 PM | Message Detail
GFA's pic is awesome >_> as is the current result of the poll there.

...Go Kirby! Make the King look slightly less pathetic!
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:02:31 PM | Message Detail
Match 53: (1) Master Chief vs. (2) Crono

Past Performances

Master Chief


Summer 2005
Beat CATS, 68.83% - 31.17%
Beat Donkey Kong, 50.79% - 49.21%

Win - Lose Record
4-2

Crono

Summer 2005
Beat Zidane Tribal, 76.72% - 23.28%
Beat Tommy Vercetti, 70.85% - 29.15%

Win - Lose Record
11-3

Analysis

Welcome to the biggest blowout this round. Master Chief is one of the weakest characters left while Crono is one of the strongest characters left. Crono may have the lowest seed of the noble 9, but he’s far from the weakest.

After his bad match with CATS, Master Chief goes on and proves that he was not worthy of his 2k4 ranking by barley beating Donkey Kong. Just for the record, Master Chief now owns the biggest record of the biggest successful comeback ever by beating Starcraft by a few votes. Crono has yet to show us an impressive performance against his opponents by beating Vercetti by around what most people thought.

Like I said this is a no-brainer match. Master Chief has no chance in upsetting Crono or even makes this look good. Crono has yet to break a sweat and probably won’t until his final four match. The only thing Master Chief has going for him is Halo 2. It may look like it didn’t help him, but there is a chance that Donkey Kong grew as much as Master Chief did last year.

Master Chief may avoid the doubling, but all I want to see in this match is the percent swing during the after school vote. Crono may not be that bad with the day vote either, but I can see him have 70% and then see Master Chief bring it down to under a doubling and then die off when night time comes.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Crono over Master Chief

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crono wins, 67.25% - 32.75%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Phediuk | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:02:57 PM | Message Detail
Kirby is whittling down Bowser's percentage quite nicely. ^_^

Too bad that doesn't mean ****.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:04:54 PM | Message Detail
Nice news to come back from class to. This puts Snake as the extreme favorite next round.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:07:47 PM | Message Detail
It's been 50/50 with a very slight advantage to Kirby
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:08:20 PM | Message Detail
Keep rocking, Kirby.

And I say Crono will break 68 with no sweat. Crono vs. MC will help to see how far Tommy Crapcetti has fallen and perhaps how much DK increased, as they both beat DK by a similiar amount.

Regardless, watching MC get the crap beat out of him will be very enjoyable. He hasn't gotten blown out since Aeris, so this will be fun. Muahaha.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:11:29 PM | Message Detail
2005-09-08 16:10:12 28890 32448 47.10% 52.90% 61338 3558
2005-09-08 16:05:00 28681 32225 47.09% 52.91% 60906 3544
2005-09-08 16:00:00 28442 31998 47.06% 52.94% 60440 3556
2005-09-08 15:55:01 28233 31777 47.05% 52.95% 60010 3544
2005-09-08 15:50:01 28012 31565 47.02% 52.98% 59577 3553

If that's not 50/50 then I don't know what is
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:12:20 PM | Message Detail
Okay, for everyone that's waiting for my convincing argument about why Bowser > Snake, even though I've stated numerous times before that I hope Bowser can still take down Snake. For the record, I said in my post that I could list reasons why Bowser has a chance, NOT that I was booking Bowser over Snake.

We all already know about Snake's horrible year in 2k4. It's already been said that 2k4 was a fluke, but since you insist on me listing all of my reasons why Bowser has a chance against Snake. So I'll list them all pretty like so you can admire them.

1. Snake not only performed worse on Knuckles, but he also performed worse on Mega Man than in 2k3. The first signs that something may have been up with Snake. Those were the most significant things from last year.

2. Zero was able to directly outperform Snake against Mega Man.

3. We all know about Snake's bomb he put up against Frog. We can all attribute that to either Solid ****, a huge Frog overperformance, or both. I actually believe that Frog was overrated last year due to his bandwagon. But nonetheless, Snake still performed like ****.

Fast forward to Spring 2k5.

4. Sephiroth completely rapes Liquid Snake. We all figured Liquid was overrated, but nobody would have expected him to be overrated to that degree. In any way, it doesn't make Snake look good himself, since he is part of the same series.

5. Bowser gets 40% on Sephiroth. Some say the Spring Contest was a fluke, some thought it was legit. Me? I couldn't see myself ever seeing Snake putting that kind of performance on Seph. That was what enticed me to go for the upset of Bowser over Snake.

Fast Forward to Summer 2k5.

6. Bowser not only destroys Chun Li, but he beats Ryu worse than Solid Snake did in his BEST year. The most impressive thing that Bowser has done thus far.

7. Kirby destroys Tidus, who performed 7% worse on Mega Man than Snake in the previous year. If you take it for face value, KIRBY would nearly be able to take down Snake. Of course, I don't take that as face value as I hardly trust the stats to that extent. But it was something I took note of.

8. Snake gets 54% on Zelda. A good performance, especially after Zelda killed Vivi. But I honestly think that Bowser > Zelda, so after this match, I still think Bowser still has a good chance against Snake.

9. Mario DOMINATES Zero 63-37. This is the same Zero that directly outperformed Snake in the previous year. If Bowser gets any of this same support that Mario has shown, then this is another thing that shows him having a chance against Snake.

NINE reasons that make me think that Bowser could have a chance against Snake. Compare that to Snake's impressive victory over Sora and his win over Zelda. There's certainly evidence for both sides. I only said that I could give more solid reasons for Bowser taking it than Snake.

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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:12:51 PM | Message Detail
My biggest reason for taking the upset of Bowser over Snake is that I felt that we simply didn't have enough data ON Bowser to judge his strength before this year. Everybody took his blowout against Cloud at face value and called it a day. Sonic did the same thing against Cloud that year, and he bounced back nicely. Thus, I always felt that Bowser was underrated in the 2k3 stats. He handily beat Yoshi, who we also haven't had an accurate view on, but has impressed this year. Plus, nearly EVERYTHING that Bowser has done this year has been impressive, and it's a much better thing to judge him by than his one match against a beefed up Cloud 2 years ago.

Add to this the impressive performances of Nintendo characters this year. Luigi and Yoshi have more than impressed this year. DK was able to give Master Chief a match. Zelda killed Vivi before bowing out to Snake. Kirby killed Tidus. Samus killed Frog. And Mario is an absolute BEAST in the contest.

After all this I still think that the match is a toss up. Snake may very well beat Bowser worse than Zelda, or Bowser may end up winning. I only stated that I found several reasons to believe that Bowser still had a chance. I never said I would try to convince people that he will beat Snake, and am only going through all this damn trouble since I'm accused of BS. I could care less what people think about these arguments because I already ADMITTED that most people will probably refute them. So have fun with it if you want.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:15:53 PM | Message Detail
*catching up* =P

http://www.gamefaqsascii.com/

I just wanna note that the match-pic for GFA's bracket today is funny (KoaC/Bowser, for those wondering).


That my friend, is ****ing HILARIOUS. Makes me wonder whether Ceej will bring back the pwning pics of last year.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: matrix007 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:17:46 PM | Message Detail
I think if enough Xbox Live users can rally behind Chief he can make it look decent.

There are about 350,000 different players logged on to Halo 2 each day. So, if enough chain messages can go around, Chief may look much stronger than people think.
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Alexander feels a strange pulling sensation.
From: transience | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:19:20 PM | Message Detail
Bowser beating Snake was a fine pick last month, because you were assuming Snake would be at his 2k4 value or lower. from what he's shown this year, he's clearly stronger, while Bowser might not be at his Spring value. it's still possible, but every sign says no.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:19:31 PM | Message Detail
I have nothing against you saying that there are reasons why Bowser could win that match--but downplaying Snake's chances by saying that he only has TWO reasons to win is just wrong.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:19:45 PM | Message Detail
Very good reasons, therealmmn.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: Nai | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:20:04 PM | Message Detail
OK, I need Bowser to get 52.09% or less to win Oracle Challenge Dream Division...

Will Kirby make it happen?
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Currently playing: Killer7 [GC] + Yoshi Touch & Go [DS]
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:22:06 PM | Message Detail
I forgot to mention Bowser's performance today as a reason for Snake being the favorite. <_<
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:22:39 PM | Message Detail
You actually think Kirby would get 47+ on Solid Snake? I think not. I like kirby and all, But thats not happening.
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:23:32 PM | Message Detail
Darn it Nai, you're still ahead of me in the Oracle predictions. I would be stomping you if I didn't miss so many matches...
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:24:21 PM | Message Detail
7. Kirby destroys Tidus, who performed 7% worse on Mega Man than Snake in the previous year. If you take it for face value, KIRBY would nearly be able to take down Snake. Of course, I don't take that as face value as I hardly trust the stats to that extent. But it was something I took note of.

Ooh, kinky. We both realize that's not worth taking very seriously, but that is still interesting.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Nai | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:25:41 PM | Message Detail
Hi Kevin =D

It seems that we are having a private battle down there =P Anyway I missed the first matches... I started with Kirby's first match... and considering that I predicted correctly all the match before that, I'd probably have an higher average by now =P
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Currently playing: Killer7 [GC] + Yoshi Touch & Go [DS]
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:26:36 PM | Message Detail
I have nothing against you saying that there are reasons why Bowser could win that match--but downplaying Snake's chances by saying that he only has TWO reasons to win is just wrong.

Nonetheless, both sides have reasons for winning and it shouldn't be surprising no matter WHAT the final outcome is, unless the match ends up in a blowout.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: transience | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:26:50 PM | Message Detail
whoa, nice update for Kirby. 3500 barrier no more!
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: swirldude | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:34:26 PM | Message Detail
Has nobody bothered to tell Kirby that 3500+ votes is nearly impossible to recover from, and that he isn't Master Chief?
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:43:19 PM | Message Detail
He would have to make 40 vote gains in order to win.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:43:46 PM | Message Detail
Kirby needs to take MC's power to take over the votes from here on out...or Master Hand...or CJayC.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:46:16 PM | Message Detail
A lot of those reasons are under the assumption that Snake 2004 = Snake 2005, and you'd be very hard pressed to convince me of that right now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: transience | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:47:14 PM | Message Detail
damn, Kirby is kicking ass here. why couldn't he have started this earlier?
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:47:58 PM | Message Detail
If you ask me right now, Snake 2005 > Snake 2003, even.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:50:24 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I think Snake could give Mega Man all he could handle right now. I don't think Leon would beat Sora. Regardless, Snake would definitely do better than he did last year and possibly better than he did in 2003.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:52:16 PM | Message Detail
Snake goes against Knuckles again. Percentage?

I say 65-35.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: transience | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:52:49 PM | Message Detail
ehh... 62-38.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:54:10 PM | Message Detail
I just realized that Bowser has won a grand total of 7 five minute updates in the last two hours. That's 19 updates won for Kirby in that time.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:55:01 PM | Message Detail
I dunno. Knuckles seems stronger than he has in previous years, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: swirldude | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:55:46 PM | Message Detail
Snake - 49.99% Knuckles - 50.01%

>_>
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/8/2005 4:57:38 PM | Message Detail
I'm gonna say 63-37...hard to say though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
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