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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 237
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:05:27 PM | Message Detail
...Oopsie >.>

I posted Vlado's wrong analysis...(had Kirby/Bowser copied down for MC/Crono)

One second.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Snake vs. Sora - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (64/72)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:05:36 PM | Message Detail
Vlado’s Analysis


This is just another of the third round borefests. Despite Kirby having the top seed and despite his impressive win over Tidus, I think Bowser will win here, and without much trouble. The crazy Nintendo increase and the bracket votes are what gave Kirby such a huge win in what was supposed to be a close battle with Tidus. And, Tidus has obviously dropped. It seems that his terrible loss to Rockman last year hasn't been an accident. Anyway, Kirby's win was impressive, even if Tidus really did drop. To think I was quite certain that Tidus had that one... But, then again, the whole board was certain about Magus, so yeah.

I think it's Bowser who'll benefit more from the bracket vote in this one, though this will be pretty much even there. The spring contest characters have been favoured in the brackets, it seems, since less than 50% had Samus beating Ganon... A pick no one who has followed the contests so far would put under any doubt. Anyway, I think that Bowser will win here, but won't have much of a chance against Snake. Especially after Snake's incredible performance against Sora, which suggested that he has gotten stronger since last year.

Kirby is the underdog here, but, can he somehow win this? I'd say that pretty much anything's possible, but this is a Nintendo SFF match and the more popular characters tend to win these. Sure, Kirby is popular, but he's nowhere near Bowser's level. Bowser could even own Kirby really badly here, if SFF heavily
favours him. But, we come to the hero vs. villain factor again. While this is not nearly like Samus vs.
Ganon, I think that Kirby's cuteness and the fact that Bowser is a villain will save him from a loss that would make him look too bad.

Predicted percentage: Bowser with 51.76%

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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Snake vs. Sora - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (64/72)
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:13:59 PM | Message Detail
I like Soul's well enough. How many of you would feel comfortable with taking Kirby over Ryu?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:14:37 PM | Message Detail
I would take Kirby over Ryu in a heartbeat. Especially if Rikku = Tidus.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:15:26 PM | Message Detail
I'd definitely take Kirby over Ryu this year. Hell, I might take Kirby over Squall after what we've seen.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:16:06 PM | Message Detail
I would take Kirby over Ryu without thinking.
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By your powers combined, I am...
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:20:45 PM | Message Detail
Well, fine then, you can all comfortably take Kirby over Ryu, I sure couldn't though, and I doubt I would.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Starion | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:22:23 PM | Message Detail
Same. I would have picked Kirby over Ryu pre-2005 but it isn't what I would have considered a comfortable pick. I would confidently choose Kirby over Ryu now though.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:28:53 PM | Message Detail
Man, look at all of those people who think Bowser will struggle with Kirby. How ludicrous! Come on! This guy is a contender to beat Snake, they say! If he struggles to outdo what Snake did on Zelda, he doesn't stand a chance!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: transience | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:29:03 PM | Message Detail
I think Bowser will win here, and without much trouble.

Predicted percentage: Bowser with 51.76%


that's trouble if you ask me..?

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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:30:21 PM | Message Detail
On another note, imagine where Calavera is going to be? =D

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:32:09 PM | Message Detail
If he struggles to outdo what Snake did on Zelda, he doesn't stand a chance!

Well, that's what I've been thinking the whole time.

No, he has a chance, but not big enough for me to worry.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Snake vs. Sora - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (64/72)
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:32:54 PM | Message Detail
Predicted percentage: Bowser with 51.76%

That's comedy right there.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:33:11 PM | Message Detail
But it's ridiculous to say Bowser will struggle with Kirby! It's almost as laughable as Soul's Mega Man/Leon Kennedy prediction!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:33:59 PM | Message Detail
If this is all legit, Manny is actually looking to be halfway decent. Who the hell knew?

We can only hope that Snake beats Bowser so that Manny'll get a true representation of his strength in the X-Stats. ^_^
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:34:39 PM | Message Detail
Soul's MM/Leon prediction still scares me. I think I'm going to have another nightmare just thinking about it...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:35:28 PM | Message Detail
But it's ridiculous to say Bowser will struggle with Kirby!

Of course it is.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:36:41 PM | Message Detail
So...this is the end...for Sora...;_;
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:38:13 PM | Message Detail
But on the bright side, the superior Riku is projected to beat Sora using that combination of stats mentioned earlier...that's grand!
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:38:53 PM | Message Detail
Riku sucks.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:39:08 PM | Message Detail
Bowser will struggle with Kirby. Kirby will hold the lead for a couple of hours.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:39:45 PM | Message Detail
Riku owns Sora's soul. He's the true Keyblade master.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:40:18 PM | Message Detail
What will the reaction be if Bowser broke 65% on Kirby?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:40:28 PM | Message Detail
Kirby will hold the lead for a couple of hours.

I want to see it!

Darn school...
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Snake vs. Sora - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (64/72)
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:40:37 PM | Message Detail
Bowser/Kirby will be close...for the first half or so. Then Bowser will pull away and never look back.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: XxBilly2xX | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:41:07 PM | Message Detail
It's almost as laughable as Soul's Mega Man/Leon Kennedy prediction!

I really, really try not to say this, but I just can't avoid it in this situation.

<3!
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This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:41:11 PM | Message Detail
Soul's MM/Leon prediction still scares me. I think I'm going to have another nightmare just thinking about it...

Writhe in my cage of torment, my friend.

Hey, it's that dog... MEESTER SCOTT KENNEDEE.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:42:21 PM | Message Detail
I wanna see the board's reaction if Kirby ends up winning. It'll be priceless.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:42:33 PM | Message Detail
Bowser will struggle with Kirby. Kirby will hold the lead for a couple of hours.

You're going to be in for quite the surprise then.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:43:22 PM | Message Detail
Kirby beating Bowser would make my day. Heck, I'll be happy if he can hold him as low as some of these analyses predict. I thought saying he'd hold Bowser under 60% was being generous...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:44:45 PM | Message Detail
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:40:18 PM | Message Detail
What will the reaction be if Bowser broke 65% on Kirby?


He still loses to Snake because Sora > Kirby.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:46:09 PM | Message Detail
I could see Bowser really blowing Kirby the hell out, maybe even more than 60/40. You know, since he in Snake seem to be engaged in a pissing contest to see who can put up the most inflated numbers on the competition in preparation for their match.

I'd probably go so far to say Snake/Bowser is the second most anticipated EE match, right after Mario/Samus. I'm thinking Sonic/Mega's going to be a bit anticlimatic at this rate myself...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: XxBilly2xX | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:46:18 PM | Message Detail
SFF. Obviously. Just like every unexpected result.
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This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:46:21 PM | Message Detail
He still loses to Snake because Sora > Kirby.

...The two were dead even in the stats last year.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: transience | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:46:22 PM | Message Detail
I think Kirby will look respectable against Bowser.. but we're talking 55-45, max. 57-58% seems like a good guess. I'd love to see Kirby beat Bowser just for the pure hilarity, plus Tidus being stronger than Ryu.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:46:35 PM | Message Detail
If Bowser breaks 65%, it'd just be chalked up to SFF.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:48:03 PM | Message Detail
I wouldn't mind if Bowser struggled with Kirby since I like both characters, but most of all to put away the talk of Bowser > Snake.

Then again I like Bowser more than Snake.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: transience | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:53:56 PM | Message Detail
we're really not going to learn much in this match. no one really knows how the SFF will go.

Bowser/Snake will be close regardless of what happens here.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:56:26 PM | Message Detail
I could see Bowser really blowing Kirby the hell out, maybe even more than 60/40. You know, since he in Snake seem to be engaged in a pissing contest to see who can put up the most inflated numbers on the competition in preparation for their match.

I've been pushing Bowser, but I'd hope neither blows the other out of the water, as he & Snake are my favorites of what's left of this contest.

I'd be happy with Snake FINALLY making the Final Four or Bowz playing a hand in the destruction of the Noble Nine. Barring any warp star shennanigans from Kirby one or the other's got to happen.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:57:27 PM | Message Detail
After three years of heartache, Solid Snake deserves a Final Four appearance.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:58:10 PM | Message Detail
Heck, if Solid Snake makes the Final Four, it'd be the first time that all four characters were from different companies.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:01:53 PM | Message Detail
Sonic and Snake are the only Noble 9 characters to not make the final 4. This year they both have a chance in making it.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: igota75 | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:10:29 PM | Message Detail
Sorry, but I've been out of internet for a few weeks. I've compiled a listing of each four-pack and rankings, and would love to share but dunno if this has already been done; I don't want to repeat information, there's enough people spouting off OLD'D things as is.

If someone could just put a little 'ps' into one of their posts saying whether to go ahead or not would be great!
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:11:07 PM | Message Detail
OK, I don't know if anyone's posted this yet, but here are four theories of mine to explain today's match:

A) Samus overperformed against Cloud by a significant amount in 2004 due to tons of board support. This trickled down to Sora making him overrated.

B) Snake got a big ol' boost from Snake Eater. We've never seen what a new really popular game can do for Snake, so there's nothing to really say otherwise.

C) Zelda overperformed against Snake due to the fact that he got the worst picture ever created.

D) Snake is overperforming against Sora to an extent due to him getting a more favorable picture.


P.S. Right when I thought CJay could never top himself with pictures, he does it again with Kirby Vs. Bowser. Kudos man, kudos.
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:17:11 PM | Message Detail
A) Samus overperformed against Cloud by a significant amount in 2004 due to tons of board support. This trickled down to Sora making him overrated.

Probable, though I don't put much in board support. It tilts the scales in close matches but in larger ones it's minimal.

B) Snake got a big ol' boost from Snake Eater. We've never seen what a new really popular game can do for Snake, so there's nothing to really say otherwise.

This could be true.

C) Zelda overperformed against Snake due to the fact that he got the worst picture ever created.

Zelda characters probably were boosted by Twilight Princess, I don't think the picture had much to do (I agree it was horrible...yeash).

D) Snake is overperforming against Sora to an extent due to him getting a more favorable picture.

Look at it the other way around: Snake is screwed because Sora spotted him. Seriously though, I can't see much favoritism in this picture.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:23:57 PM | Message Detail
Zelda characters probably were boosted by Twilight Princess, I don't think the picture had much to do (I agree it was horrible...yeash).


I totally think part of Zelda's increase was due in part to TP, but then there's still Vivi to account for, depending on if Snake has even gone past 2K3 levels.
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:31:33 PM | Message Detail
Not that I care for Snake in way, shape, or form, but I decided to look at how his performance is making him look in relation to other characters and how much of a "boost" this is looking like based off of a constant Sora.

Going by his 65.13% right now, Snake is looking like he's at 38.68% on 2004 Link. That puts him above characters such as Sonic, Mega Man, and even Mario based on this year (38.47%).

Samus would be projected to get 51.03% against Solid Snake.
Sephiroth would be projected to get 54.38% against Solid Snake.

Solid Snake would be projected to get 50.27% against Mario (2005)
Solid Snake would be projected to get 58.13% against unadjusted Mega Man (53.47% against adjusted Mega Man)

Looking at the amount he would jump by from 2004, going by his unadjusted value (27.74%), Snake would jump 10.94%. If you use his adjusted value, Snake would jump by 7.86%. Now, again, this relies entirely on a constant 2k4 Sora. The other characters, unless noted, were also held constant based on 2004.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:39:36 PM | Message Detail
Hey cool, Sora is still marching on to 35%... Too bad for him Snake's dominate late night vote is yet to come...

Who else saw Sora losing this badly, anyway?
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:47:17 PM | Message Detail
So, Crono's been pretty much the only constant NN member so far...Now just watch him end up winning the main bracket.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:48:15 PM | Message Detail
If Mario makes it past Samus, he's going 3-1 on Crono, book it.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
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