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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 237
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 5:45:17 AM | Message Detail
Kept you waiting, huh?

(You sure did, Snake. *mumbles something about making the topic because no one else did*)

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/7/2005 5:47:45 AM | Message Detail
*tag*

And you said you wanted to post it, so I held off...

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 69/76 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 5:48:54 AM | Message Detail
SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!

The man who makes the impossible possible pulls through again! Who expected anything less?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 5:49:29 AM | Message Detail
Likewise

Bowser > Snake
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 5:50:19 AM | Message Detail
And you said you wanted to post it, so I held off...

Well, I never got a confirmation from anyone, so I held off too... <________<

The man who makes the impossible possible pulls through again! Who expected anything less?

The entire stats topic, apparently.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/7/2005 5:52:52 AM | Message Detail
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 7:48:54 AM | Message Detail
SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!


Yeah, like I don't hear that enough when I play the damn game...

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 69/76 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: DBZFIGHTERS | Posted: 9/7/2005 5:54:01 AM | Message Detail
From: DBZFIGHTERS | Posted: 9/6/2005 3:17:50 PM | Message Detail
Snake is going to DOUBLE Sora tomorrow. BOOK IT.

Feels good to make one prediction right >_>

---
Die hard Cubs, Pistons, Patriot and Maple Leaf fan
Owl Squad Member ( ºvº( ºvº )ºvº ) O RLY?
From: cyko | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:33:53 AM | Message Detail
long live the Noble nine!!!!

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: oldmasterqqq | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:43:06 AM | Message Detail
after a 55-45 victory over Zelda, who woulda expected this against Sora?
---
I'm old.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/7/2005 6:45:20 AM | Message Detail
Those who thought Zelda to be that much stronger than Sora.
---
Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:46:05 AM | Message Detail
That was the best 500th post we've had in a while.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: futuresuperstar | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:46:57 AM | Message Detail
I got a same time post with HaRRicH, and he stole me 500th post! *cuts self*

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---§³---
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed
Women come and go, but Metal Gear is forever.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:47:18 AM | Message Detail
People are seriously thinking SNAKE can take the main bracket? Will people ever learn not to take matches against weaker characters at face value. He still has to PASS the likes of Mega Man, Crono, and the other top characters. I don't see that happening at all.

'Weaker' characters? Since when did 35% on Samus become weak? Unless you mean any character weaker than any other character, in which case the only thing we can measure through is Link. Whoops, there goes Magus.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:47:37 AM | Message Detail
I'm gonna get the timing down on 500 posts one of these days... (-_-)

"I know what you're thinking....all this power, AND looks, too!"
"I'm lightning in a bottle! I'm an earthquake in a can!"


Bowser > Snake
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:49:02 AM | Message Detail
Good thing you didn't get that one, as the final premise is utterly false.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:51:22 AM | Message Detail
'Weaker' characters? Since when did 35% on Samus become weak? Unless you mean any character weaker than any other character, in which case the only thing we can measure through is Link. Whoops, there goes Magus.

Weaker as in relative. Obviously Sora is weaker than Snake. Even using 2k4 unadjusted Snake, he still would beat Sora. People that were hoping for Sora to beat Snake were banking on a Sora increase. Sora may be stronger, but obviously not strong enough to make people like him more than Solid Snake.

Similarly, Solid Snake MAY be stronger, but I don't think he'll ever be strong enough to beat the likes of Samus or Mario.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: futuresuperstar | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:51:24 AM | Message Detail
Solid Snake over SNOIC! BOOK IT'D.

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---§³---
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed
Women come and go, but Metal Gear is forever.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:51:26 AM | Message Detail
Heh, now that I've caught up and got #500... (high-fives fss)



Sora vs. Knuckles .. who wins??

Sora in a match similar to Squall/Knuckles.


Kefka broke 70% on Wesker. Zero broke 70% on Lloyd. Lloyd barely beat Wesker. I highly doubt Kefka could even keep Zero from doubling him. Kefka overperformed with his sprite.

It doesn't sound all that right at first (at least to me), but when I sit down and think about it, I would expect Zero to have doubled Kefka (assuming Zero's constant from last year).


And to think I forgot to mention Young Link getting pwned by Bat Cloud.

Since he got mentioned, I'll go off-topic from this quote for just a second: I never understood the appeal of Bat-Cloud. I know they designed him to look alot more like Vincent...and I'll give credit that Bat-Cloud DOES look pretty cool. The problem I have with him though is the bat-wing; I don't understand it, I don't think it looks good, and I don't think it adds anything to Cloud's abilities from what I've heard (or, rather, haven't heard).
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:53:13 AM | Message Detail
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/6/2005 4:48:00 PM | Message Detail
XD @ Sora/Snake pic.

Snake with 60%+. Don't just book it, TATTOO IT ON YOUR ASS.


Come on, guys! Aren't these some kickass tatts?
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:54:46 AM | Message Detail
Since he got mentioned, I'll go off-topic from this quote for just a second: I never understood the appeal of Bat-Cloud. I know they designed him to look alot more like Vincent...and I'll give credit that Bat-Cloud DOES look pretty cool. The problem I have with him though is the bat-wing; I don't understand it, I don't think it looks good, and I don't think it adds anything to Cloud's abilities from what I've heard (or, rather, haven't heard).

*SPOILERS*

If you play through KH and hear Cloud's story, you understand why he is shrouded in "DARKNESS". He made a pact with Hades. And Cloud DOES make use of his wings. In your second fight with him, he actually starts gliding around the arena. It's a hell of a fight, ESPECIALLY on expert mode.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:55:09 AM | Message Detail
The only tattoo left to give now is on Bowser; Bowser's gonna have to impress tomorrow if he wants to still have the faith of the board against Solid.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:55:53 AM | Message Detail
Weaker as in relative. Obviously Sora is weaker than Snake. Even using 2k4 unadjusted Snake, he still would beat Sora. People that were hoping for Sora to beat Snake were banking on a Sora increase. Sora may be stronger, but obviously not strong enough to make people like him more than Solid Snake.

And that completely ignores the fact that we assume transitivity for these discussions, and that potentially puts Snake over Samus 2k4. If you want to throw transitivity (or linearity, more likely) out, then fine, but don't act as though we can't look at the two percentages and not give Snake a SHOT.

Similarly, Solid Snake MAY be stronger, but I don't think he'll ever be strong enough to beat the likes of Samus or Mario.

That's your opinion. Similarly, my opinion is that as long as a character keeps turning out well-received games, they will rise in popularity and have a chance to overtake other characters. Snake got 47% on Crono in 2002, and then Crono nearly beat Mario. Don't tell me Snake doesn't have a shot at him EVER.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:56:05 AM | Message Detail
Ah, well, fair enough then. I still think the wing looks silly though, ahem.....
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:56:44 AM | Message Detail
This topic is hilarious. Rather, the last one is. All I see are a bunch of people using the X-stats to justify Snake having a cakewalk against Bowser and a real shot at winning the contest.

You people will never learn, it seems.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:57:52 AM | Message Detail
Question: What do you think the formats of next round's pic will be? There shouldn't be any home-court advantage pics due to there being 8 divisions and multiple 1 seeds facing each other right?
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:57:59 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and this must naturally mean that Snake is stronger than Samus. Characters stay constant from year to year and never change, and thus, Snake's doing better on Sora than Samus did makes him the favorite to win the main bracket before having a real shot at Sephiroth.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:58:25 AM | Message Detail
Oh, c'mon, Ulti, after the chances you gave Snake on Sora (and Zelda) you know this is impressive.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:58:50 AM | Message Detail
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 12:57:52 PM | Message Detail | #025
Question: What do you think the formats of next round's pic will be? There shouldn't be any home-court advantage pics due to there being 8 divisions and multiple 1 seeds facing each other right?


I'm hoping sprites, myself. The format for this round is essentially the same format we saw in the Elite 8 last year.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:59:32 AM | Message Detail
Question: What do you think the formats of next round's pic will be?

With Snake's luck, I'd imagine them to be "clashing" battle pictures. Instead of being blasted by Mega Man, he'll now be enveloped by Giga Bowser's fire.
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/7/2005 9:59:42 AM | Message Detail
I'm predicting we're gonna see some double-pics, where each character gets a pic of owning the other. Either that or MAYBE user-created pics; that started in the Elite Eight of the Game Contest, afterall.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: futuresuperstar | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:00:51 AM | Message Detail
You know that you love my subtle sarcasm, Ulti, but you cannot blame the likes of Karma Hunter and me for eating this up.

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---§³---
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed
Women come and go, but Metal Gear is forever.
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:01:36 AM | Message Detail
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 12:58:25 PM | Message Detail | #027
Oh, c'mon, Ulti, after the chances you gave Snake on Sora (and Zelda) you know this is impressive.


I never said it wasn't. But the fact that people are still calling the rest of a contest after one or two hours of a match (y helo thar Slowflake's OMG SMAUS can break 60% on Cloud all through the first two rounds last year) is hilarious to me. People will seriously never learn.

Now watch, if Tifa absolutely gets her face kicked in by Sonic, everyone will look for all of these made-up factors to keep themselves looking credible after all of the OMG TIFA CAN WIN stuff.

Hiiiiii-larious.

~*ST*~
From: qweasdfqwe | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:01:47 AM | Message Detail
Unless sonic loses to Tifa (which i won't say 'it'll never happen), the noble nine will stay in tact for another year...
---
"Anyone seen the vice-president lately?" - Keith Olbermann
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:03:13 AM | Message Detail
From: futuresuperstar | Posted: 9/7/2005 11:00:51 AM | Message Detail | #031
You know that you love my subtle sarcasm, Ulti, but you cannot blame the likes of Karma Hunter and me for eating this up.


Hey now, I'm a big fan of Snake/MGS as well. I just can't help but laugh at Xst fanboys who think that an entire contest is over after one hour in a match.

Tifa can beat Sonic!

*Luigi almost wins*

o snaps

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:03:54 AM | Message Detail
Meh, I only did it because it's Solid Snake. It's just bias. I don't think this makes him "a lock to take the main bracket" but it certainly doesn't make him look bad, either.

Then again... weren't you doing the same thing in the first round, Ulti? I seem to remember a certain hidden character...
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:04:19 AM | Message Detail
And that completely ignores the fact that we assume transitivity for these discussions, and that potentially puts Snake over Samus 2k4. If you want to throw transitivity (or linearity, more likely) out, then fine, but don't act as though we can't look at the two percentages and not give Snake a SHOT.

Who assumes transitivity? Certainly not me. You must have forgotten who you're talking to. I've been preaching non-linearity since the beginning of the contest.

That's your opinion. Similarly, my opinion is that as long as a character keeps turning out well-received games, they will rise in popularity and have a chance to overtake other characters. Snake got 47% on Crono in 2002, and then Crono nearly beat Mario. Don't tell me Snake doesn't have a shot at him EVER.

MGS4 would have to be earthshaking for Snake to be able to hang with Mario, and I don't see that happening, ESPECIALLY with the Revolution and a brand new Mario game around the corner as well. The day Snake can beat Mario in a popularity contest is the day I reserve a seat on the short yellow school bus.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: futuresuperstar | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:04:22 AM | Message Detail
I really wanted that win for Luigi Mario, too ...

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---§³---
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed
Women come and go, but Metal Gear is forever.
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:05:12 AM | Message Detail
You mean Vincent? Yeah, and I ate those words and apologized a long time ago. Unfortunately, others still don't get it.

Did you know that Alucard is stronger than Bowser? Just compare their matches with Cloud.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:05:33 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but no one's calling anything. It's simply impressive that Snake is performing past a character that has been for three years running FAR out of his league, and that he may be able to put up a fight in the Final Four if he gets there (I haven't counted Bowser out, and I still doubt Snake has a chance in hell).

But this much on Sora is no joke, just like Sora on Alucard is no joke. Could they have both fallen? Perhaps, but Snake has more reason to rise. Could this just be transitivity and linearity and lol x-stats falling on their face? Yeah, I've accepted that's playing a role too. But you can't expect me not to relish in it a *little*. = D
---
*is Karma Hunter*
From: futuresuperstar | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:06:05 AM | Message Detail
I really wanted that win for Dante Sparda, too. >,>

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---§³---
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed
Women come and go, but Metal Gear is forever.
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:06:13 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and from a purely biased point of view, I'd pee my pants with delight if Snake were able to somehow beat Sephiroth or Crono in a match. Ever.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:09:17 AM | Message Detail
*finally changes sig*

It was long overdue. I love Magus, but the same sig for a year is boring.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, Mario 64 DS, Advance Wars
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:10:28 AM | Message Detail
MGS4 would have to be earthshaking for Snake to be able to hang with Mario, and I don't see that happening, ESPECIALLY with the Revolution and a brand new Mario game around the corner as well. The day Snake can beat Mario in a popularity contest is the day I reserve a seat on the short yellow school bus.

It doesn't have to be this year, the next, or even in ten years. But people's tastes change. And when I see that characters like Crono can beat Mario 53/47, I know that no one is untouchable.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:16:32 AM | Message Detail
By the way, this match is obvious SFF; since Snake's two most popular games both appear on the Playstation 2 along with Kingdom Hearts, most voters are clearly torn.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, Mario 64 DS, Advance Wars
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:17:58 AM | Message Detail
Don't joke about that. I was arguing all morning against Snake/Sora SFF. It wasn't funny.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:19:23 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I saw that topic and joined in a lil'...that is nothing short of annoying to argue about.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Mugen no Jyuunin | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:19:32 AM | Message Detail
That sounds so ridiculously stupid...

Are people making those arguments seriously? >_>

---
<_<
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:19:58 AM | Message Detail
Otacon quote, lawl. Or is it a Raiden/Snake thing? Could go either way
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:22:07 AM | Message Detail
Every match has SFF? Didn't ya know? Sonic and Tifa will have "physical fitness" SFF.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/7/2005 10:22:20 AM | Message Detail
Snake quote. And damn right he's been keeping me waiting, I've been waiting three ****ing years for a performance like this.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
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