Unless Samus wins in the mid-50s, of course.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

The stats for this contest are going to be next to useless next year anyway. What with Mario/Samus relying completely on which way the SFF goes, and the fact that ALL of nintendo seems to have risen for soem unseen reason.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

Samus is projected to win with 59% using 2K4's stats.

I say she needs 61%+ to be a threat to Mario.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

Im depressed Zero is doing this badly.
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http://www.success-corp.co.jp/software/ps2/was/index.html
Oh Happy Days for me :)

The beefed up Spring Contest Ganondorf is projected to get about 42.5% against 2004 Samus. That's really the only "feasible" number I'm able to come up with in terms of expectations. Of course, the question is how much worse will Samus make him look...
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

gamecube is the weakest console, so nintendo takes it out on the others from this contest! cmon! what else would explain the boost >_>...>.>what?
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- - -

When you think about it, Samus doesn't need to do that well to be a threat. Ganondorf has shown many signs of increasing, especially after he turned his hyped match with Auron into a frace,

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

so, In Order for Samus to be a threat to Mario, she has to get 58% agianst Ganondorf?
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http://www.success-corp.co.jp/software/ps2/was/index.html
Oh Happy Days for me :)

The thing thats being underplayed to a degree is the fact that beyond Link>Everyone else, we have no idea how nintendo SFF works. Now obviously we've seen mario demolish ness and DK, but that proves nothing when it comes to the stronger characters. We don't know if samus can SFF Mario, heck we dont even really know if she can SFF ganondorf, for we all we know there could be a degree of rSFF. More reasons why this ears stats are going to be useless for next year.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

Basically, the way I see it, if Samus gets in the general area of 57-63% against Ganondorf, she looks fine next round. Anything below that, I'd say Mario looks good. Anything above that and Samus is showing signs she can get a good amount of SFF, and she looks good. It's a big range, but there's a big range where Ganondorf can fall.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Anyway, I'm calling it now.

My gut says
Samus 57%
Ganondorf 43%

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

so, In Order for Samus to be a threat to Mario, she has to get 58% agianst Ganondorf?

No way. That's what 2004 Samus is projected to get on Spring Contest Ganondorf. In order to be a threat, she really needs to pound him with the SFF hammer. If Samus struggles to SFF Ganondorf, how can she possibly be expected to avoid getting SFF'd by Mario?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Tomorrow, Samus is projected to get 59.01% against Ganon (2003 value). Using how he did in the Spring -- and going with a constant Sephiroth --, Ganon would be at 35.47% against 2004 Link, before SFF obviously. That would make Samus's projection drop to 55.1% against Ganon.

Now if he's below his 2003 value, Samus would more than likely break the 60% mark in terms of her projection.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

how can she possibly be expected to avoid getting SFF'd by Mario?

...By being stronger than him, maybe? We can't say for sure Mario would significantly SFF Ganondorf either, ya know, and we've never seen rSFF.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Mario 63.9% 50233
Zero 36.1% 28379
TOTAL VOTES 78612

Samus is now projected to beat Mario, although just barely. =p

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Let me rephrase that: if Samus struggles to SFF Ganondorf, she doesn't SFF Mario. It's as simple as that. Of course, she'll probably SFF Ganon rather easily, so this is a pretty moot point.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I'm wondering how Zero is beating Mario in the afternoon vote, which is part of the day vote. Anti-vptes only go so far.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

Mario is best with the morning vote, along with most Nintendo characters.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

But isn't Nintendo dominant throughout the entire day?

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

The kiddies are doing their homework. Wait for another hour or so. :P

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

On Labor Day?
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior

In order to be a threat? She already beat the living hell out of frog. Enough to convince me that she's risen at least. Well unless you believe that anyone barely above the fodder line is capable of getting around 48% on solid snake.

But yeah, if she only gets somewhere in the mid 50's tomorrow it won't look good on her. If she gets anywhere over 60% everyone is just going to scream sff anyways though, so I don't think any number will convince people that she's risen a lot unless it's 85% or something equally ridiculous.
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The parents are forcing them...or something. <_<

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

I guess I'm the only one who thinks that the high vote totals are indirectly influenced by the amazing pic.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Mario's at 39.46% on 2004 Link, his boost thus far is 4.69%, and Samus is projected to beat him with 50.05%.


I love checking that stuff. <3

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Two elite characters facing off almost always generates craploads of votes unless they're from the same company.
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.04% loss for Mario.

Good.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

He's dropped by 0.26% within the last hour.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Mario's at 39.46% on 2004 Link, his boost thus far is 4.69%, and Samus is projected to beat him with 50.05%.


I love checking that stuff. <3

I've always thought and still think that samus vs. mario is completely up in the air so don't get me wrong, but just keep in mind that would be assuming that samus didn't increase at all, and if the DS is a big factor for this rise in nintendo popularity I'd say she did.
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Also, I don't think that Samus's 70% on Frog was all that impressive. That is Frog's worst pic (granted, he doens't have many good non-sprite pics).
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

and if the DS is a big factor for this rise in nintendo popularity I'd say she did.

She had no games for DS.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

She had no games for DS.

A Metroid Prime: Hunters demo was packaged in with every DS.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

Metroid hunters demo was packaged with well over a million DS's.
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2004 Samus is expected to beat unadjusted Frog with about 66%. After what we've seen from Liquid Snake and Master Chief, most people here believe that even the unadjusted stats overrated the trio, so Samus's 70% isn't really as impressive as we initially believed.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Samus has that Metroid Prime: Hunters demo.

Also, I don't think that Samus's 70% on Frog was all that impressive. That is Frog's worst pic (granted, he doens't have many good non-sprite pics).

Frog's picture will always hurt him bad, though getting blown out 70-30 by Samus seemed a bit much.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

And a demo is a game.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

If you put frog at mc's 2k3 level then she still performed very well. I don't believe for a second that frog is too far below that number.
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And a demo is a game.

Packaged with millions of ds's Think about the impact that can have on a character who hasn't had a million seller for quite some time.
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You know, this doesn't have to do with the match at hand, but it does deal with Mario!

Why wait so long to release a new installment of Mario? The wait is frustrating players everywhere...

Mario is and always has been a concept title from his birth. We are always looking for new ways of playing with him, manipulating him, to create something new and unique. We're in the midst of preparing something special for his future, something never before seen. You'll understand when you see it that we can't quite release it right away. The new Mario game will surprise many people. Give us the benefit of the doubt. I think we'll present you with a new way to have fun. There's even a new character by his side.

Mario 128 will be released for Revolution then?

Yes, of course! It's no surprise, but of course we will rename it, obviously. That won't be the only surprise of next year though. We based the Revolution around this new type of game. Mario 128 played a large role in the Revolution's conception, much like Mario 64 in it's time. But we won't just be focusing on Mario. We're working on some very impressive games which push interactivity to the max. Games of a new era.


Mario 128. <3

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

IIRC Metroid Prime was packaged with many GCN bonus deals.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

I laugh at anyone who says that there was no SFF between two of Nintendo's biggest characters.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

I so hope Mario 128 (or whatever it'll be called) is a Revolution launch title. That, and downloadable games from the launch.

Mario 128 and Star Fox 64 marathon = No XBox 360 or PS3 for a few years.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

I laugh at anyone who says that there was no SFF between two of Nintendo's biggest characters.

I think that's your answer right there. When two characters are that popular, it's hard to strip them of their fans.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Speaking of the same interview that HM quoted, what do his strange statements on the next Zelda and Zelda's future mean for us?
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior

Shadowdude wins the internet.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Seeing as this is GameFAQs, he should expect to get it in about two years.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

So, assuming that Zero keeps the pace up...what do you think he'll finish with by the time this contest ends? I'm guessing 38% when being optimistic.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

Zero shouldn't get more than 37% before it's all said and done, I think.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine