With no Clinkeroth in sight, I don't see Mario losing in the finals to anyone. His fanbase just won't let it happen.

The Crono fanbase will make sure that statement is incorrect Mr. yoblazer, just like the last 2 years :P
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

Using the adjusted stats, and Mario's current percentage of 64.09%, Mario would end up at 39.69% against 2004 Link. That projects him to beat Samus with 50.23%. Sephiroth would also be projected to get 53.19% against him now.


Of course, these would rely on Sephiroth and Samus remaining constant.

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Dammit. "Using the unadjusted stats."

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Well, that relies on staying contest. Samus has increased and Sephiroth has most likely dropped.

---
Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

Oh man, I'll laugh my ass off if that 50.23% goes down below 50% by poll's end, which may well happen.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Mario will still be projected to lose to Samus by the end of this match.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

LOL Mario's getting pwned with the day vote! I liked it better when I thought he'd make a run at the doubling =(

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 61/68 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

Sephiroth has most likely dropped.

I don't believe he's dropped again, myself.

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Yeah. This board hates Samus for some reason.

This board loves Samus, but we're a bunch of Mario marks as well. If he actually has a shot at winning a tournament, Samus and Crono be damned; Board 8 will back Mario.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I don't believe he's dropped again, myself.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you say earlier that dropping Sephiroth to Samus level would make the Spring Contest more valid?
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you say earlier that dropping Sephiroth to Samus level would make the Spring Contest more valid?

I did, but after seeing Nintendo perform this year, I could imagine it being more them than anything else. It brings Bowser rather high, but I'm fed up with trying to adjust the stats to make everything look more reasonable.

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

And I think Bowser will heavily underperform when he faces Kirby.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

What percentage should Mario get today to be expected to tie Samus, anyway?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Just for the record, the magic number here is 63.92%. If Mario falls below that, Samus would be projected to beat him.

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

And I think Bowser will heavily underperform when he faces Kirby.

I don't think that'll effect Sephiroth at all. But I can't see him having a close match with someone like Kirby, he shouldn't have any trouble stomping him into the ground.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Kirby with the "reverse SFF" for the win!

Er... maybe not the win, but it'll happen.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono

Wow, ask and you'll receive, I guess. 8 seconds... if only pizzas could be delivered like that.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I dunno. Kirby's the one seed, which means he might get alot of bracket votes. Not to mention he just had a new game out and he stomped Tidus pretty badly.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Bowser's match against Ryu was far more impressive, if you ask me.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Indeed. As good as Kirby was, Bowser was just plain jaw-dropping.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Ryu doesn't look so strong when you extrapolate him through KOS-MOS 2k5.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

So Ryu overperformed against Sonic then? To mention nothing of Samus/KOS-MOS?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Possibly.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

So what about Sonic? Does Sonic not look as strong as well?

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

And he also could have overperformed on Snake. Snake did get something similar to Solid **** in his match.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

I think DK's performance ranks amongst the most impressive so far as well.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Bowser should have more brackets, everyone is overestimating the villain contest.

That being said, Kirby fans seem to be more devoted than Bowser fans based on what I've seen here (more than enough users), and I think those that who will normally vote Kirby aren't as likely to vote Bowser over him in the case of fanbase overlap.

Kirby might just make things interesting at least. It's probably the second toughest match to call in round 3, sadly.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono

I cannot ever imagine Ryu overperforming against Sonic. All of his matches last summer went about as projected, I believe. At the least, I know his match against Sonic did.

If KOS-MOS dropped, you don't bring down Ryu in the process.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Heh. If Mario drops 0.11% more, he'll be tied with Samus. =p

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

It's just that I can't see Bowser > Sonic. I just can't.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Meh...Ryu fell, Bowser gained. KOS-MOS underperformed a bit against Luigi due to her picture, and Luigi gained significantly from last year. Vyse underperformed against Tifa.

Yup.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

And regardless of what Samus does tomorrow, she still wont be the favorite to win against Mario on this board. She overperforms? SFF. She does as expected or less? Marios considered stronger.

---
Can't think of a good sig.

I'd never take Bowser over Sonic. Ryu just did crappier than normal for some reason or another. It's just another X-Stats failure, don't worry about it.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono

I'm sure Ryu dropped some, but just because KOS-MOS dropped doesn't mean the two should be dropped proportionally. Last year, Sephiroth was projected to get 60.42% against Sonic. That's about what he got against Bowser in the Spring.

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Samus was the big favorite from the moment the bracket was released, actually.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I'd never take Bowser over Sonic. Ryu just did crappier than normal for some reason or another. It's just another X-Stats failure, don't worry about it.

I don't know what happened there: that match should have been much closer. Signs are pointing to a Bowser boost though.
---
Today's subliminal thought is:

Let's say Samus underperforms against Ganon but then beats Mario 55-45 anyway. Would this greatly alter the elite and near-elite characters' strength ranking?

People would slap the SFF tag on Mario/Samus.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Bowser>Sonic didn't seem so unlikely after his match with Ryu. At least until Sonic murdered Diablo making himself look like crono, then Tifa didn't do nearly well enough against luigi, despite the fact he obvioulsly has either gained or was very much underrated by Link-Yoshi SFF we didn't see, and everything feel back into place... at least until a day later when megaman flopped against leon making Gordon Freeman look capable of winning a match and putting the universe in jepardy...
---
"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

Don't let the ease of tomorrow's match fool you; it is an absolutely pivotal day for Samus. She has to prove that she can SFF Nintendo with the same potency and brutality that Link and Mario have demonstrated. If she doesn't go above and beyond her "projected" value, my confidence in Mario will increase.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Yeah, I agree with yoblazer. I think Samus can manage though.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Well, guys, I was away on a little weekend trip, and I just got back.

Mega Man only finished with 64%? Ouch, man.

Yoshi flattened Pac-Man. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Yoshi/Luigi predicted that result almost perfectly.

And today, Mario is destroying Zero.

Yet more signs of a widespread Nintendo boost.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

But there's a slight problem... Ganondorf is the strongest Nintendo character outside of these three. It's not Yoshi, it's not Fox, it's not DK, and it sure as hell isn't Olimar.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Samus is going to murder Ganondorf, not to the Link/Ganondorf degree but I expect it to make Frog look good.
---
Today's subliminal thought is:

And Mario continues to drop like a brick.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

That and it's freaking Ganondorf, we know how his "fanbase" is. Samus must exceed expectations to start to convince me Mario's in danger.

Bowser/Ryu... it had... SNES SFF! Wait wait... "OMG SF2 LOST"F... I mean we saw how crappily it did against Super Mario RPG, and guess who was in SMRPG? Yeah.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono

Samus is going to murder Ganondorf, not to the Link/Ganondorf degree but I expect it to make Frog look good.

No matter how good he looks its obvious that MC, Liquid and frog were all overrated soemhow, whether by snakes pic or the simple fact that CT characters seem to do better when they're on miracle runs.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

I wanna see the board's reaction if Crono takes out Mario/Samus and how screwed up the stats will be for this contest.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

I honestly have no idea what expectations are, after the way Ganondorf murdered Auron.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Mario/Samus will probably "screw up" the top half of the stats regardless of what Crono does.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.