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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 234
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:01:54 AM | Message Detail
More like ZerOWNED, am I right?

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251


!yawa tsoP
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:02:49 AM | Message Detail
Mario's rocking today's match. <3

---
“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!”
-- Sephiroth
From: and now I dance | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:03:30 AM | Message Detail
Zero is getting a bit up in % at least....
---
*Dances, trips and falls* XP
From: MechaMachine16 | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:04:25 AM | Message Detail
GO!! Mario!

Hmm...I'm now in 7th place on the leaderboard. Not bad.
---
Current Score: 60/64 Now: Mario vs Zero
*is raytan7585*
From: MnMZero | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:05:59 AM | Message Detail
"It's not over yet!" ;_____;
---
*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Zero in SC2k5
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:22:27 AM | Message Detail
What a kick ass picture.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 57/64 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:23:44 AM | Message Detail
<3 Mario.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:24:32 AM | Message Detail
...and I think I am in love with the Tifa cos-player <3

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 57/64 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:35:43 AM | Message Detail
...what a horribly painful whomping. It's the last time we see Mario in action before the match against Samus, and he's lookin' like a champ here.

GO SAMUS!
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:42:08 AM | Message Detail
AHH, Zero...my boy, you're looking like a chump! ;_; Ah well, atleast it's Mario doing the butt-kicking so I'm not that upset.

GO MARIO!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:46:24 AM | Message Detail
Just thought of something... Zero disappointed against both Hayabusa and Lloyd. Perhaps this is related.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:47:51 AM | Message Detail
Not to mention Mega Man disappointed, too. Of course, even using unadjusted Zero from last year it puts Mario dangerously close to Samus.

Mario's rising with the morning vote, and isn't bad with the day vote, either...Zero will be lucky to hit 37% by the end.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:49:18 AM | Message Detail
Maybe another across-the-board Megaman decrease?

Damn, if that 55% on Zelda wasn't a fluke, Snake's jump becomes ungodly if the unadjusted stats are true.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:49:28 AM | Message Detail
If Link did SFF Megaman, then why wouldn't Mario be able to SFF Zero? Just a thought, I don't believe any of them got SFF'D.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:52:02 AM | Message Detail
Snake's jump becomes ungodly if the unadjusted stats are true.

Snake? Ganondorf's boost gets ungodly if the unadjusted stats are true >_>


I'm just teasing with you.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: transience | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:57:10 AM | Message Detail
Zero disappointed on Lloyd? it looked like a massacre to me. but yeah, it makes sense that both MM and Zero would drop together. it looks like the trends go this way:

Nintendo: way up
FF7: we'll know more after this round, but I'd say up
Sonic: up
Mega Man: down
Square: down in general, though there are exceptions (hi, Sora; hi Squall)
Snake: up
everything else: down, for the most part

---
http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/5/2005 5:59:06 AM | Message Detail
And seeing the match-picture theme, Sora will not be beating Snake. Something similar to Snake/Frog seems likely.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 57/64 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2005 6:05:55 AM | Message Detail
To make that spreadsheet I made yesterday a little easier on the eyes, here are the top 10 lists one can make out of it:

Board's top 10 biggest successes vs. casuals (by prediction percentage differences)

1. +69.88% - Summer 2004 - Frog def. Master Chief
2. +66.14% - Summer 2004 - Megaman def. Solid Snake
3. +62.55% - Summer 2004 - Zero def. Tommy Vercetti
4. +54.44% - Spring 2004 - Super Smash Bros. Melee def. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
5. +53.15% - Summer 2004 - Frog def. Liquid Snake
6. +52.43% - Summer 2005 - Leon Kennedy def. Gordon Freeman
7. +48.95% - Summer 2005 - Tifa Lockheart def. Luigi Mario
8. +47.37% - Spring 2004 - Chrono Trigger def. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
9. +46.43% - Summer 2004 - Megaman def. Zero
10. +45.96% - Spring 2004 - Super Mario Bros. 3 def. Legend of Zelda

Board's top 10 biggest mess-ups vs. casuals (by prediction percentage differences)

1. -39.40% - Summer 2005 - Ness def. Carl Johnson
2. -38.74% - Summer 2005 - Kirby def. Tidus
3. -35.73% - Summer 2005 - Pac-Man def. Revolver Ocelot
4. -35.08% - Summer 2005 - Knuckles the Echidna def. Janus "Magus" Zeal
5. -31.84% - Spring 2005 - Master Hand def. Kuja
6. -26.22% - Summer 2005 - Squall Leonhart def. Knuckles the Echidna
7. -25.61% - Summer 2004 - Sora def. Ryu Hayabusa
8. -20.48% - Summer 2004 - Tidus def. Shadow the Hedgehog
9. -17.15% - Spring 2005 - Dr. Ivo "Eggman" Robotnik def. Master Hand
10. -16.05% - Summer 2004 - Miles "Tails" Prower def. Viewtiful Joe
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2005 6:07:29 AM | Message Detail
Squall an exception? He didn't exactly look brilliant against Knux.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: transience | Posted: 9/5/2005 6:12:56 AM | Message Detail
well, he looked better than Tidus, put it that way. I don't think Squall impressed, but consider how Sonic looks to be up a little and 53% isn't as bad as it looks.

as for subcategories within Square, new Square is definitely kicking old Square's ass, with Crono being the only exception thus far.
---
http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/5/2005 6:26:18 AM | Message Detail
Mario's gotten 66.69% of the vote from 5:20 to 6:20...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 6:29:07 AM | Message Detail
As they say.

CARRIERS HAVE ARRIVED

WHAT NOW, SAMUS?

---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: I_Dont_Love_You | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:06:17 AM | Message Detail
Pre-emptive bump.
---
George Romero > You.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:28:26 AM | Message Detail
Okay... here's a few characters who could work in a 32-person tourney for 128-or-later.

Tidus
Auron
Rikku
Yuna
Shadow
Dante
(Insert Guilty Gear Character)
(Insert 2 Soul Calibur Characters)
The Boss
Raiden
Solidus Snake
Sora
Riku
Vergil
Vyse
Ramirez
Lloyd
Kratos (God of War)
James Sunderland (Silent Hill)
Laharl
Tommy Vercetti
Carl Johnson
Master Chief
Arbiter
HK-47
Krauser
Master Hand >____>
Ryo Hazuki
Agent 47

There's 30 in that list.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: ProtomanV4 | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:29:19 AM | Message Detail
From: Kegger9 | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:22:37 AM | Message Detail
Sonic has TJF!! There is no stopping him(her?) now!! MUAHAHAHAHA


That post actually made me laugh.

---
18 winning seasons, 2 20 strikeout games, #2 all-time in strikeouts, 7 Cy Youngs, arguably the best pitcher ever: Roger Clemens
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:32:05 AM | Message Detail
You could add Lloyd Irving and Kratos Aurion and then you'd have 32. Finished!

Okay, not really...I'm sure there are many characters that should be on there, but it's not like I know any.

I got my first 500th post ever...whoopie.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:32:54 AM | Message Detail
You could add Lloyd Irving and Kratos Aurion and then you'd have 32. Finished!

I have Lloyd... for some reason I changed "Kratos" to "God of War".

So that's 31.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:33:14 AM | Message Detail
Nice 500, BTW. Now fix it so that Crono is the champion.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:33:28 AM | Message Detail
Master Hand's first appearance was on the N64... Crazy Hand would work, however.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: I_Dont_Love_You | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:33:39 AM | Message Detail
I'd like to see Revan make the contest. If carefully planned, he could be set up to actually win a match.

Anyway, I want to see Mario double Zero already.
---
George Romero > You.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:36:56 AM | Message Detail
Okay!

(1) Auron
(2) Tommy Vercetti


(1) Dante
(2) Tidus


(1) Shadow
(2) Rikku


(1) Master Chief
(2) Sora
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:38:51 AM | Message Detail
Square: down in general, though there are exceptions (hi, Sora; hi Squall)

*coughCronocough*
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:41:35 AM | Message Detail
*coughCronocough*

Damn straight! I see him disappointing against MC though, probably with around 57% of the vote.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:44:47 AM | Message Detail
Damn straight! I see him disappointing against MC though, probably with around 57% of the vote.

If he does that to MC both Squall and Vincent look very good on taking the final 4 spot.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:56:58 AM | Message Detail
Damn straight! I see him disappointing against MC though, probably with around 57% of the vote.

With MC looking not that hot so far, and this being sprite round...I seriously doubt it!
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:57:49 AM | Message Detail
If he does that to MC both Squall and Vincent look very good on taking the final 4 spot.

... considering that Crono DOUBLED Dante in 2002 and beat Solid Snake comfortably in his best year, I hardly think that a guy who got 53% on Dante or a guy who got 53% on Snake's whipping boy will beat Crono.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2005 7:59:22 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, such awesome sprites of Mario and Zero we're seeing here.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:00:04 AM | Message Detail
Zero could do with a sprite, now that you mention it.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:01:05 AM | Message Detail
... considering that Crono DOUBLED Dante in 2002 and beat Solid Snake comfortably in his best year, I hardly think that a guy who got 53% on Dante or a guy who got 53% on Snake's whipping boy will beat Crono.

Then Crono won't get 57% against MC.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: meche313 | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:01:30 AM | Message Detail
MC sprite might actually be a great one.
---
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:01:38 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, such awesome sprites of Mario and Zero we're seeing here.

Well..in game models...my bad. Still, Crono only has sprites for in game models. So doesn't change the fact Crono will have the sprite-mode advantage he gets...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:03:52 AM | Message Detail
Explain why not. MC would have have 48% on Snake last year, and Mega Man got 57% on Snake. If Crono approx = Mega Man then 57% is not out of quesiton.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:04:29 AM | Message Detail
And I doubt tha Crono will benefit from an in-game pic.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: meche313 | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:04:50 AM | Message Detail
But DK just explained to us that MC was greatly overrated, as Frog was.
---
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: yoshifan823 | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:07:00 AM | Message Detail
My original final 4:
Samus
Snake
Crono
Mega Man

My Finals:
Samus
Mega Man

Winnar: Samus.
---
http://skystrife.proboards33.com/index.cgi
Enter the Final Fantasy Haven...
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:07:58 AM | Message Detail
I am very pleased with my original Final Four of

Mario, Snake, Crono, Sonic

I am less pleased with my picks of Ryu and Magus to the Elite Eight.

XD
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:09:00 AM | Message Detail
Explain why not. MC would have have 48% on Snake last year, and Mega Man got 57% on Snake. If Crono approx = Mega Man then 57% is not out of quesiton.

DK beats Vivi 60/40 now?
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:14:02 AM | Message Detail
Holy...What is Zero fighting for?

Mario at 65% before the day vote is amazing. It's definitely looking like the winner or Mario/Samus is going all the way, and taking out Sephiroth.

Yay for my 2005 > Seph pick!
---
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mario vs. Zero - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Mario (56/64)
From: Majin Lou | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:17:10 AM | Message Detail
While I have Mario winning in my bracket (like most other sane people), the fact that Zero is doing this poorly makes me sad. Then again, Nintendo definitely is a lot stronger this contest for one reason or another.
---
Kurotsuchi Mayuri fan
Supporter of Squall Leonhart in the Summer 2k5 Character Battle IV
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/5/2005 8:17:48 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
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