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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 233
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:38:40 AM | Message Detail
*mumblesquarebetterthan'tendomahassmumble*

That's still true.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 3 - (3) Zero
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:39:34 AM | Message Detail
No it is not, and never has been.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:39:46 AM | Message Detail
I predict the above post gets modded.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:39:58 AM | Message Detail
Damn it all.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:40:20 AM | Message Detail
No it is not,

Yes, yes, it is.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 3 - (3) Zero
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:40:21 AM | Message Detail
;_;
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:40:23 AM | Message Detail
Nintendo > Square

Square > Most
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Speak of Galcian again in that tone and I shall cleave you in two
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:40:59 AM | Message Detail
Yes

No.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:42:08 AM | Message Detail
As entertaining as it would be to keep this up, I think I'll bring it to a stop.


(Square > Nintendo !!)

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:42:39 AM | Message Detail
Well, Imma go on to bed...Zero or Vincent, who wins?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:42:44 AM | Message Detail
What remake?
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:43:38 AM | Message Detail
If there was a Square vs Nintendo poll, who do you take and by how much.

I take Nintendo with ~52%
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Speak of Galcian again in that tone and I shall cleave you in two
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:43:45 AM | Message Detail
Vincent! Dante > Zero...

... what?
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:43:46 AM | Message Detail
The rumored remake for PS3. Nothing's been said about it though, to my knowledge.

Zero beats Vincent, easily.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:44:17 AM | Message Detail
(Square < Nintendo !!)

Looks good to me.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:44:30 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and for my own edification, what is ol' Sephy boy expected to get on Zero?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:44:43 AM | Message Detail
Snake or Zero? Who wins? And for that matter, Zero or Bowser?
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Samus, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:45:46 AM | Message Detail
After seeing every character sans Crono bomb, I would be hesitant to take that pick.

...They were overrated to begin with, and that much is pretty easy to see at this point. I'd still take CT over LttP.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:45:47 AM | Message Detail
Snake beats Zero. Bowser beats Zero. Bowser beats Snake.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:46:16 AM | Message Detail
Based on 2004's stats, Sephiroth is expected to get 62.65% against Zero.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:46:24 AM | Message Detail
"Bowser beats Snake."

In fantasy land :)
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Samus, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:46:42 AM | Message Detail
That adjusted or unadjusted?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:46:51 AM | Message Detail
Well, Gamefaqs is kind of a fantasy land, I guess.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: transience | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:46:59 AM | Message Detail
my game rankings:

1. ff7
2. oot
3. ssbm
4. lttp
5. ct

I don't think I'm missing anything.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:47:01 AM | Message Detail
I would expect Ganondorf to beat or be on the same level as Zero this year, so Samus really doesn't have to do fantastic on him to have a chance at Mario. There wouldn't be a whole lot of SFF either. We wont know for sure who wins until Mario/Samus actually happens.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:47:37 AM | Message Detail
Adjusted.


The unadjusted numbers put Sephiroth getting 66.39%.

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“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!”
-- Sephiroth
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:47:40 AM | Message Detail
There is no way Dorf is on the same level as Zero... Really, I cant see Mario pulling almost 70 on Auron.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: assman20 | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:48:03 AM | Message Detail
As much as I love Square (and my favorite game is from them), they only make good RPGs. Nintendo can do no wrong on any game.


Mario with 56% on Samus (SFF'd)
Mario with 58% on Snake
Mario with 54% on Crono
Mario with 52% on Sephiroth
Mario with 41% on Link


MEGA BOOK IT!

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Halo 2 Rankings
Team Slayer - 25 Team Preview - 19 Team Skirmish - 13
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:48:35 AM | Message Detail
Mario with 52% on Sephiroth

I'd still take Sephiroth over Mario, myself. =p

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“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!”
-- Sephiroth
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:49:05 AM | Message Detail
400 votes ahead of Snake Vs. Zelda.

Woo.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:50:19 AM | Message Detail
Incidentally, this match has more votes than any other match at the same point in the 24 hour poll this contest. Kinda makes you wonder...
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:50:55 AM | Message Detail
Hmm...so for all we know, Sephiroth could still have the advantage for that match, barring degradation over the year. Hayabusa and Lloyd seem to argue for the unadjustment (though Mithos > Lloyd puts a wrench into that), along with Tidus, Mega's (apparent) bombing, Kefka/Vercetti, and some of the overrating of Frog's four-pack.

On the other side, you have Snake and Knuckles. Snake has reason to increase. And I would say we don't quite have a good read on Knux just yet.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:51:12 AM | Message Detail
Well this is the two strongest characters that have faced either other yet...
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:51:52 AM | Message Detail
Heh, it's like 50 behind Cloud/Link 2004 right now, but I somehow doubt it'll maintain that pace.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:55:39 AM | Message Detail
Though I must say, if Mega Man turns around and performs on his adjusted level and Mario ends up not beating Sephiroth, we might have our first big piece of evidence toward rSFF ever with MM/Zero. Of course, by then we'll already have the biggest piece of evidence in Mario > Samus. <3
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:56:34 AM | Message Detail
Based on those same unadjusted stats, Mario would have been projected to get 59.01% here instead of the 54.45% the adjustment predicted.

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“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!”
-- Sephiroth
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:00:42 AM | Message Detail
Continuing to look at this, if the adjustment is correct, Mario would have boosted up to Samus's value of 39.5% against 2004 Link, or about there.

The projection Mario has at that value is 63.93%, which can obviously go up with the day vote. That's a boost of 4.73% from his 2004 value. From there, a match against Sephiroth -- assuming Sephiroth didn't drop from 2004 to 2005 -- would be a projected win in favor of Sephiroth with 53.41%

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“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!”
-- Sephiroth
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:02:44 AM | Message Detail
Wait, huh? I thought you said Sephy was expected to get less than this on adjusted Zero. Wouldn't that give Mario the advantage?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:03:14 AM | Message Detail
Hey Karma, Whats your prediction on Snake/Bowser?
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Samus, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:03:17 AM | Message Detail
Depends on where Zero is.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:03:32 AM | Message Detail
Bah. That should say "if the unadjustment" is correct.

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“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!”
-- Sephiroth
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:04:47 AM | Message Detail
As always, I predict Snake > Bowser. This match just confirms an all-around Nintendo boost, which Snake has hopefully surmounted already in Zelda.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:05:22 AM | Message Detail
Oh, okay, that makes a lot more sense.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:07:40 AM | Message Detail
This does make me worry more about Winner/Sephiroth...

Imagine though, getting to that point and then losing the contest...it would stab you through the heart...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:07:51 AM | Message Detail
I think the unadjustment makes a lot of sense right here. There were other matches pointing to it being more correct, with a few saying otherwise, but if any match did it best, I would say it's this one.

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“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” -- Sephiroth
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:09:05 AM | Message Detail
It looks like quite a few characters have boosted other than Nintendo. If Zelda boosted, too, then it makes Snake look better. Sora looks like he boosted (or Alucard dropped, but the former has more reason to be true, though both could be). Samus actually seems pretty stable based on Frog (or the increase is minimal compared to what we've seen from some). Kirby appears to have boosted up. Sonic (and maybe Knuckles, too) appear to be on the upswing. Mega Man looked awful, and Yoshi looked good, so who knows what might happen there?

And if anybody had a reason to have a boost of epic proportions, it's Master Chief, and it looks like he didn't get one.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:09:45 AM | Message Detail
People are talking about adjustments to the stats after this??? Clearly we need to start anew...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:11:20 AM | Message Detail
People are talking about adjustments to the stats after this??? Clearly we need to start anew...

Oh, no adjustment needs to be made or anything. If you use the unadjustments from last year, things make a lot more sense than Mario going from 54% all the way up to 63%. It would be 59% to 63%, which can obviously be attributed to his increase.

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“What is that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” -- Sephiroth
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:11:22 AM | Message Detail
To state the obvious, MC/Crono will tell the tale of where Master Chief is. I'm hoping he does well, or at least has a really good day vote.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/5/2005 1:15:39 AM | Message Detail
Oh, no adjustment needs to be made or anything. If you use the unadjustments from last year, things make a lot more sense than Mario going from 54% all the way up to 63%. It would be 59% to 63%, which can obviously be attributed to his increase.

You totally missed my point...

Anyways, I'm going to bed.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
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