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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 233
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:45:54 PM | Message Detail
This is false, good sir.

Indeed. It's very false.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:45:54 PM | Message Detail
I just want to bring uo Luigi and Bowser for a second...

In what game, released recently and selling quite well, have they both been the best Nintendo characters ever?

Paper Mario 2.

I feel that it is more important than Super Mario 64DS
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:45:55 PM | Message Detail
There's a noticeable pattern up there.

You're right. Hmmm....

Zidane > Kuja > Vivi, eh?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:46:36 PM | Message Detail
I'd perhaps agree with you, but CATS gives me plenty of doubt to stew over.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:46:40 PM | Message Detail
*looks at picture*

...?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:46:48 PM | Message Detail
I wouldn't ever imagine Bowser losing to Zelda in an actual match. I don't view the two being equal directly or indirectly.


Yeah, you said that earlier...I'm just wondering why.

And Apro, what do your stats predict for Samus vs. Seph, percentage-wise?

But, for the rise that Mario would have needed to get...isn't 60% lowballing it a bit? Or am I mistaken?

Samus would get 60% on adjusted Zero.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:47:01 PM | Message Detail
I also don't think that every Nintendo character has benefitted, or at least the evidence isn't there. And like I said before, I would LOVE to believe that for people like Zelda, because that bodes very well for Snake. But for matches like MC/DK, I think it's more MC being overrated than so much of a DK boost. I find Vyse and KOS-MOS falling more likely than Luigi rising like a cannon into NN territory and Tifa still being primed to take the bracket. Independent of statistics, I just don't find it likely.

Why is it so hard to believe in a general shift of the voting pool? It explains every single instance of a Nintendo character overperforming, and I believe it's a much more plausible theory than a series of independent drops by outside characters.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:47:24 PM | Message Detail
>>>>>>XD

Someone search for the real pic!
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:48:07 PM | Message Detail
We're talking about well-liked mainstream stuff, Leon. FF9... isn't either on this site, sadly.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:48:26 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b49.jpg


Mario for the win. XD

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:48:29 PM | Message Detail
Seph/Ganon > that one

Now let's see some sprites!
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Yoshi vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (54/62)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:48:37 PM | Message Detail
Okay...

Squall > Ultimecia > Laguna

Tidus > Seymour > Auron
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:49:38 PM | Message Detail
Sonic > Shadow > Tails

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:49:50 PM | Message Detail
Samus would get 60% on adjusted Zero.

Oh. But I thought we were thinking Zero was around unadjusted levels...

Oh, and if we're to think Magus was overrated from 2k3 to the degree that 2k5 implies, Zelda 2k3 > Ganondorf 2k3. So it's not exactly like Ganondorf > Zelda's an absolute...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:50:08 PM | Message Detail
Crono > Lavos > Frog
Locke > Kefka > Terra
Mega Man > Sigma > Zero
Sonic > Robotnik > Tails/Shadow/Knuckles

All untrue. All you need to do to make Zelda and Bowser equal is give them the same boost since 2k3.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:50:17 PM | Message Detail
You don't even know who ultimecia is until like Disc 6, and Seymour isn't even the main villain of FFX.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:50:26 PM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:49:38 PM | Message Detail
Sonic > Shadow > Tails


Sonic > Knuckles > Shadow
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:51:27 PM | Message Detail
My stats have Samus getting 50.69% on Sephiroth if Sephiroth has not changed since the spring. However, the trend seems to indicate that he will drop a little bit - he increased big from 2k2-2k3 (Kingdom Hearts), but then he dropped from 2k3-2k4 and again from 2k4-2k5sp. Samus, on the other hand, has been increasing steadily every year since 2k2, with the biggest increase from 2k3-2k4 (Metroid Prime).
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:51:33 PM | Message Detail
Seymour isn't even the main villain of FFX.

He essentially serves the purpose of main villain.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:52:34 PM | Message Detail
My stats have Samus getting 50.69% on Sephiroth if Sephiroth has not changed since the spring. However, the trend seems to indicate that he will drop a little bit - he increased big from 2k2-2k3 (Kingdom Hearts), but then he dropped from 2k3-2k4 and again from 2k4-2k5sp. Samus, on the other hand, has been increasing steadily every year since 2k2, with the biggest increase from 2k3-2k4 (Metroid Prime).

So...why do you have Seph over Samus in your bracket? And MP came out in 2k2, not 2k3.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:53:00 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, you said that earlier...I'm just wondering why.

I don't even actually believe Zelda increased much, if at all. Despite this Nintendo boost, I don't believe it applys to every single character. And as far as the Collector's Edition goes, there's more reason there for Ganon to increase than Zelda, despite how they are both in said games.

Bowser has shown multiple times within the past few months to be a major force, far moreso than any 2003 value puts him at. I don't believe for one second that Bowser and Zelda have stayed relatively similar. Bowser should be clearly ahead of her when things are all said and done. He's had far more reason to see an increase. Other than being named after the series, I can't think of one advantage Zelda would possibly have heading into the match. Just being from the series isn't going to get you wins over other things that are Nintendo.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:54:11 PM | Message Detail
I have Seph over Samus in my bracket because the data I am currently using takes into account all of the matches this contest up through Mega Man/Leon Kennedy, and my pre-contest stats still had Sephy over Samus.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:54:34 PM | Message Detail
I don't even actually believe Zelda increased much, if at all. Despite this Nintendo boost, I don't believe it applys to every single character. And as far as the Collector's Edition goes, there's more reason there for Ganon to increase than Zelda, despite how they are both in said games.

Why would it only apply to some characters? That doesn't make any sense.

And I'd expect Zelda to benefit more the Ganondorf since the series is named after her.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:55:31 PM | Message Detail
Oh, MP came out between 2k2 and 2k3? Then scratch out my second parenthesization.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:56:56 PM | Message Detail
And as far as the Collector's Edition goes, there's more reason there for Ganon to increase than Zelda, despite how they are both in said games.

Yes, there is...but if Ganon's stronger in the first place, it's harder for him to gain new fans. That's why new games help every character equally on the %BL scale.

Bowser has shown multiple times within the past few months to be a major force, far moreso than any 2003 value puts him at. I don't believe for one second that Bowser and Zelda have stayed relatively similar. Bowser should be clearly ahead of her when things are all said and done. He's had far more reason to see an increase. Other than being named after the series, I can't think of one advantage Zelda would possibly have heading into the match. Just being from the series isn't going to get you wins over other things that are Nintendo.

I can see your point about Bowser having more reason to increase since 2k4, but not since 2k3. They've both had equal reasons to gain since then, IMO. Zelda also has the benefit of being the best SSBM character, and if the Nintendo boost is the SSBM-factor, she'd have more reason than anyone to increase.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:57:45 PM | Message Detail
Why would it only apply to some characters? That doesn't make any sense.

It is quite clear the amount these characters boost is far from proportional. It makes more sense to believe that some of their opposition actually dropped. With someone like Vivi, I don't find it hard to believe at all.

And I'd expect Zelda to benefit more the Ganondorf since the series is named after her.

Zelda's role in those games is next to nothing as well. Ganon has far more reason to increase from a game than Zelda has. She practically does nothing of note in the games included within the collection, minus Ocarina of Time.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:59:10 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and if cosplay was the actual theme of Round 3, Tifa would rock Sonic. =p

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:59:43 PM | Message Detail
On Metroid Prime. The thought of Samus not getting SFFd in 2003 is absolutely ridiculous, because there is no way in hell that she goes down after her first release in eight years, then gets some wild, "unexpected" boost in 2004.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:59:51 PM | Message Detail
Future pictures for round 3:

Samus Aran - http://www.20six.fr/pub/jasmin_japan_no_hana2/thumbnails/xl2c8eg3d5xl.jpg

Ganondorf - http://www.satyrnet.it/cosplay/eva/48.JPG

Solid Snake - http://www.tokyobabyloncosplay.com/gruppo/singolegrandi/cosplay_alessandro_08.jpg

Sora - http://www.japan-expo.com/img/cosplay/individuel/Individuel%2020%20-%20Sora.jpg

Kirby - http://www.aku-tenshi.com/cosplay/animethonxi/kirby.jpg

Bowser - http://www.cheep-productions.com/aboutme/vacations/otakon/2002/cosplaybowser.jpg

Master Chief - http://mywebpage.netscape.com/ClearTallest/h1.jpg

Crono - http://otakubooty.bootyproject.org/images/albums/77/2732_t.jpg

Vincent Valentine - http://www.nekomitech.net/keiichi/Cosplay/AX98/AX98Pix/ax98CosplayFF7Vincent.jpg

Squall Leonhart - http://www.divideby0.com/photos/2003/CherryBlossom/pics/CBP0040.JPG

Sonic the Hedgehog - ...Couldn't actually find any of Sonic, believe it or not. I'll look harder though.

Tifa Lockheart - http://www.cosplay-heaven.de/img/gd_img/user_costumes/thumb/2733.jpg

Mega Man - http://www.washu.ch/cosplay/ausa/s-ausa-01.jpg

Yoshi - http://animekingdoms.com/Obsession/Photos/CherryBlossom2004/yoshis.jpg

That Sora cosplay is priceless.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:02:30 PM | Message Detail
Sonic - http://www.wampner.org/megacon2004/IMG_1029_800.jpg

There you go.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:03:34 PM | Message Detail
*thumbs up at Master Chief*

That's more a work of art than it is a joke.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:03:39 PM | Message Detail
Wow, Sonic would stand a fighting chance with that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:03:55 PM | Message Detail
O_O

That girl is hot.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:03:58 PM | Message Detail
Or this, if you prefer... http://www.fancydress.ws/animals/sonic.jpg

And Knux, while we're at it: http://www.cosplaylab.com/events/megacon/2005/cosplaycontest/megacon_cosplay_41.jpg
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:04:01 PM | Message Detail
Nice findings, Sir Crono. That Master Chief one actually looks pretty good.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:04:51 PM | Message Detail
http://www.wampner.org/megacon2004/IMG_1029_800.jpg

Sonic wins the whole contest with that pic.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:05:42 PM | Message Detail
Who'd have ever thought that Tifa might LOSE because of TJF?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:07:59 PM | Message Detail
Who'd have ever thought that Tifa might LOSE because of TJF?

I've been backing Tifa, but that would be so sweet.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:08:19 PM | Message Detail
You know, a cosplay round might be a nice experiment to see if certain pictures have any kind of noticeable impact. Heh, it'd completely ruin our stats. First a bracket full of SFF, and then a cosplay round.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:09:40 PM | Message Detail
Ha! You guys are acting as if they'll really be cosplay pics. What a joke.

...*gulp*
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:10:22 PM | Message Detail
I think a cosplay round would slice the vote totals by say...60%.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:10:40 PM | Message Detail
Why are so many believing that the cosplay is the actual match picture?
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:10:53 PM | Message Detail
Slice? More like INCREASE by 60% lolololololo
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:11:35 PM | Message Detail
I'm guessing because nobody can find the real one. We found the real Sephy/Ganon pictures pretty quickly...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:12:28 PM | Message Detail
I don't see why Cjay would put it up as a joke for this round either. Atleast in the Spring contest it made sense since it was the final match.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:14:20 PM | Message Detail
That girl playing Sonic is ugly.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:15:25 PM | Message Detail
You're obligated to say that since you're married now. Your wife is probably looking over your shoulder watching you type.

And she's not particularly attractive in the face, but she's got a nice figure.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:17:26 PM | Message Detail
And for anyone who's curious, the real match pic is NOT, I repeat NOT at either of the following (yet):

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b49a.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b49.php
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Starion | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:17:26 PM | Message Detail
Well, he could just keep that pic up and then switch it five minutes before the match starts. It would be fun but cosplay pics seem a bit too weird to use for the match (unlike, say fanart).
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:18:27 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I already checked both of those, too. I don't know where else it'd be. The only other thing I can think of is that he'll change it at the last minute.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
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