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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 233
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/4/2005 6:51:43 PM | Message Detail
Short, Stumpy Mustached Italian Plumber>Less than One


*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251


ostPay wayAay!
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/4/2005 6:52:22 PM | Message Detail
WHAT am I fighting FOOOOOOOOOOR!
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/4/2005 6:56:58 PM | Message Detail
Snake > the contest.

Feel the wrath of TRUTH!
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/4/2005 6:59:47 PM | Message Detail
I expected the opening for the topic to be the "What am I fighting FOOOOOOOR!" line. I am dissappointed.

In fact...

http://whatamifightingfor.ytmnd.com/
---
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Yoshi vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (54/62)
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/4/2005 7:01:16 PM | Message Detail
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/4/2005 8:59:47 PM | Message Detail
I expected the opening for the topic to be the "What am I fighting FOOOOOOOR!" line. I am dissappointed.


Well, it was the 2nd post. And I couldn't help but have some ethnic bias show =)

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 57/64 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: MnMZero | Posted: 9/4/2005 7:05:08 PM | Message Detail
*ahem*

"NOOOO! THIS ISN'T HAPPENING! THERE'S NO REASON FOR ME TO GO ON! WHAT... WHAT AM I FIGHTING FOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRR!!!!"

Let's go Zero!
---
"Your lives that I spit on are now but a caricature of a cartoon drawn by a kid who is stupid!"
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:29:58 PM | Message Detail
I didn't even notice we were near 500. Odd.

FACT OR FICTION: Shadow the Hedgehog's Summer 2004 value is relatively accurate.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:30:01 PM | Message Detail
Huzzah for more pro-Squall propaganda!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:30:40 PM | Message Detail
Zero > Shadow on Mario.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:30:43 PM | Message Detail
After seeing what Tidus did against Kirby? You better believe it's a fact. I think Shadow beats Tidus this year though, personally.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:30:43 PM | Message Detail
FACT OR FICTION: Shadow the Hedgehog's Summer 2004 value is relatively accurate.

Fact.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:31:00 PM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:26:53 AM | Message Detail
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:24:27 AM | Message Detail | #486
If and when I win this contest, those stats will have all been worth it.

In that you can call people stupid for not agreeing with you and think that you have some ground to stand on when doing it? Winning a contest doesn't give you that right. Trust me, I would know.


Er, what I meant was, going through the trouble to create the stats will have been worth it. And if I win, I don't plan on calling people stupid for not agreeing with me. I may call people crazy for having Mega Man taking it all, but things like Mario over Samus is a respectable upset choice.
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:31:19 PM | Message Detail
I would expect Shadow to perform very much like his 2004 value says.

---
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:31:19 PM | Message Detail
I'd pick Shadow to beat Tidus, too.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:31:28 PM | Message Detail
Anyone who says Ryu didn't drop is crazy. Bowser is not as strong as Mario.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:31:52 PM | Message Detail
FACT OR FICTION: Shadow the Hedgehog's Summer 2004 value is relatively accurate.

I'm gonna go with fact. I always figured Shadow was closer to Knuckles than he was to the elites. I'd probably take Knuckles in that match, myself.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:32:29 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, sorry for lashing out. It's just that people using stats to justify arrogance is one of my biggest pet peeves, and it unfortunately happens in this topic all the time.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:32:52 PM | Message Detail
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:31:28 AM | Message Detail | #015
Anyone who says Ryu didn't drop is crazy. Bowser is not as strong as Mario.


And there's Exhibit A.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:33:13 PM | Message Detail
Well, technically, that would be assuming Mario didn't rise (which he probably did). Still, it puts them a little too close for my liking, unless Mario really hammers Zero tomorrow. Like I said, though, Ryu shouldn't stay constant even with Sp2k5 Bowser, so unless he rose even MORE, I don't see him not dropping.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:33:30 PM | Message Detail
I'd like to see Knuckles/Shadow just to see which way the SFF goes, if there is any. If not, it'd be a very good match.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:34:17 PM | Message Detail
Anyone who says Ryu didn't drop is crazy. Bowser is not as strong as Mario.

Many are arguing for a shift of the general voting population towards Nintendo. If this is the case, Bowser wouldn't need to be "stronger" than Mario. Mario may well have beaten Ryu with 63%+ this year.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:34:31 PM | Message Detail
I think Snake/Bowser will play out alot like Snake/Zelda. Snake's opponent overperforms, and everyone begins to book it for his opponent. It turns out to be a match that is never in question and Snake takes it rather easily.

Don't get me wrong, Bowser > Snake definitely has a chance of happening. It's just that I don't think it will. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bowser gets beat worse than Zelda did.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:34:38 PM | Message Detail
You're right. Bowser isn't as strong as Mario, which is why I'd pick Mario to break 45% on Sephiroth with relative ease (and possibly even win) if they ever had a rematch. If anything, noting that Bowser isn't as strong as Mario while Bowser's 40% on Sephiroth is still floating around only helps add to the causation of a widespread N increase.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:34:53 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and Shadow was a fluke. My stats have him at 29.60% against Link in 2k3 and 25.37% in 2k4 (keeping in mind Link increased from 2k3-2k4).
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:35:13 PM | Message Detail
Well, if it's more Nintendo going up than Ryu going down, then Mario will cream Zero tomorrow, as the two were decently close in the stats (Zero and Ryu, that is).
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:36:03 PM | Message Detail
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bowser gets beat worse than Zelda did.

I would be very shocked by such events. If Bowser does lose, it'll be very close. By no means will it be in favor of Snake without question.

---
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:37:33 PM | Message Detail
You're right. Bowser isn't as strong as Mario, which is why I'd pick Mario to break 45% on Sephiroth with relative ease (and possibly even win) if they ever had a rematch. If anything, noting that Bowser isn't as strong as Mario while Bowser's 40% on Sephiroth is still floating around only helps add to the causation of a widespread N increase.

It could also have been Sephiroth decreasing. He did decrease between 2k3 and 2k4.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:39:08 PM | Message Detail
I would be very shocked by such events. If Bowser does lose, it'll be very close. By no means will it be in favor of Snake without question.

Why? What's so crazy about Bowser = Zelda?

Oh, and Shadow was a fluke. My stats have him at 29.60% against Link in 2k3 and 25.37% in 2k4 (keeping in mind Link increased from 2k3-2k4).

My point was just that Zero could fluke too.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:39:24 PM | Message Detail
If anything, noting that Bowser isn't as strong as Mario while Bowser's 40% on Sephiroth is still floating around only helps add to the causation of a widespread N increase.

Or the widespread Sephiroth decrease.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:39:46 PM | Message Detail
It's more of the repercussions that Bowser = Zelda would create than the idea itself.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:40:01 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:40:18 PM | Message Detail
Still, it puts them a little too close for my liking

Which is exactly why I think Mario received a massive boost this year. If you look at SFF matches, the SFF is generally less severe as you start talking about characters close in strength. Luigi/Yoshi and Mega Man/Zero are good examples of this. When SFF matches feature two characters close together, you don't see Link/Ganon type of stuff. Though speaking of Link/Ganon, that's the only exception to the rule that I can think of.

Anyway, Mario and Bowser aren't close. Hence, Mario SFFd Bowser to hell and back. Then Bowser turns around and breaks 40% on Sephiroth, a full 3% better than Mario's score. The possibility of Mario increasing is there with that evidence, and what has Mario done in the last year to warrant an increase? Not much. And if Mario can massively increase out of no where, why can't the rest of the Nintendo crew? And surprise surprise, Yoshi, Zelda, Luigi, Bowser... hell, even Sonic and Knuckles have been kicking ass.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:40:29 PM | Message Detail
Haha, Shadow lost to someone who sucks then.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:40:31 PM | Message Detail
Why? What's so crazy about Bowser = Zelda?

I wouldn't ever imagine Bowser losing to Zelda in an actual match. I don't view the two being equal directly or indirectly.

---
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:40:36 PM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:32:29 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, sorry for lashing out. It's just that people using stats to justify arrogance is one of my biggest pet peeves, and it unfortunately happens in this topic
all the time.

No problem. I'm not the type of person to gloat a lot when I happen to get something right that almost nobody else did. Well, maybe if I predicted Terra would win the whole contest and she actually did, then I might gloat, but I would never in my wildest dreams pick her to win in a serious bracket (even before she jobbed to Dante).

But if the rest of the contest goes according to my bracket (Mario, Samus, Snake, Bowser, Crono, Squall, Sonic, Mega Man; Samus, Bowser, Crono, Mega Man; Samus, Crono; Samus; Link, Sephiroth; Link), then I will express much happiness about my success, but I do not plan at all on putting down anyone who picked differently.
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:41:03 PM | Message Detail
*brings up Tidus*

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:41:12 PM | Message Detail
I'd pick Zelda over Ganondorf in half a second. Zelda over Bowser, however... that's a different story.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:41:40 PM | Message Detail
I kind of want to believe Shadow's 2k3 rating is near what he really is. I gurantee if Shadow had actually beaten Tidus in 2k4 he would of done way better on MM. Until he's in another contest though we'll never know.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:42:20 PM | Message Detail
Meh, I couldn't see Shadow doing noticeably better than Tidus.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:42:20 PM | Message Detail
I'd pick Zelda over Ganondorf in half a second. Zelda over Bowser, however... that's a different story.

Why? Ganondorf performed better on Sephiroth than Bowser did.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:42:47 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Squall.
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: ZetSword | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:43:01 PM | Message Detail
Flik > my grandmother

---
baron von toast - I kill the first born child of anyone who says Runescape.
Phoenix HA - Try Runescape
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:43:19 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Squall.

This is false, good sir.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:43:49 PM | Message Detail
That is the undeniable truth.
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:44:20 PM | Message Detail
I'd pick Ganon to beat Zelda, and easily.

Cloud > Sephiroth > Aeris
Crono > Magus > Frog
Mario > Bowser > (...uh... Yoshi, I think?)

Why wouldn't it be Link > Ganon > Zelda? There's a noticeable pattern up there.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:44:20 PM | Message Detail
But, for the rise that Mario would have needed to get...isn't 60% lowballing it a bit? Or am I mistaken?

I also don't think that every Nintendo character has benefitted, or at least the evidence isn't there. And like I said before, I would LOVE to believe that for people like Zelda, because that bodes very well for Snake. But for matches like MC/DK, I think it's more MC being overrated than so much of a DK boost. I find Vyse and KOS-MOS falling more likely than Luigi rising like a cannon into NN territory and Tifa still being primed to take the bracket. Independent of statistics, I just don't find it likely.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:44:26 PM | Message Detail
*denies it*

You are wrong again, good sir.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:45:12 PM | Message Detail
Oh yes, and Donkey Kong almost beat Master Chief after the release of Halo 2. Yeah, Nintendo hasn't increased at all.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:45:19 PM | Message Detail
Modded for that? Pfft. I forgot posting my opinion gets me modded.

So let's try this again.

Shadow's 45% on Mario IS LEGIT.

And don't bring up Tidus.
---
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Yoshi vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (54/62)
From: arkenaga | Posted: 9/4/2005 9:45:44 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b49.jpg

XD

Ceej did it again.
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"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." ~ Isaac Asimov
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