Well mario did have SMS released in the middle of the contest, so it's quite possible that he was stronger afterwards for the rest of 2k2.
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A drop in Sephiroth's overall popularity? Cloud becoming more preferred among the core fanbase? The Spring Contest can surely suggest the former, even with a Ganon/Bowser increase, and the latter is always a possibility. Hell, I'd say it's already happened with Mario/Samus, as I don't think she would have a shot at Mario in '02, but now in '05 she is considered the favorite.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

This topic is offensive and should be modded.
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My audioscrobbler
http://www.last.fm/user/outback/

I hear that Yoshi owns.

Just what I hear, though.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero

Luigi/Pacman sff, Yoshi/Pacman sff? That's outrageous. That's in the same league as Link/Megaman sff. The amount of people who would change their vote from Pacman to Yoshi based on their splitting of this alleged old school vote is not a significant factor in this match. There are plenty of other realistic venues to persue before that one.

Yoshi was in SM64ds, and he also has had two ds games so far of his own. If we're willing to believe that Kirby's game boosted him, it's reasonable to think the same happened for Yoshi. Perhaps we should think about the ds factor more than we've been. Kirby, Mario, Samus, Link, Yoshi, and Luigi all have reason to gain from the ds.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

FF I know you like both characters, who do you like more?
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

What does Link have to gain from the DS?
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This sig sucks and is now about trains.

If anything, Minnish Cap would give Link a boost, not the DS.
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Speak of Galcian again in that tone and I shall cleave you in two
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia

Luigi/Pacman sff, Yoshi/Pacman sff? That's outrageous

Like Leonhart said... (paraphrased perhaps) "I have a hard time believing Laharl would give Pac-Man a run for his money.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono

Honestly, people who are saying this is ludicrous...Please explain to me why you now think Yoshi would beat Bowser, and why you think Laharl would give Pac-Man and Ocelot all they could handle.

And if you even suggest an Ocelot overperformance, that's even MORE ludicrous than the possibility of SFF in those matches because there is absolutely no reason for it to happen.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

yoshi cant beat bowser >_>

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1342
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Man, Yoshi's doing really, really well here.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.

Luigi/Pacman sff, Yoshi/Pacman sff? That's outrageous. That's in the same league as Link/Megaman sff. The amount of people who would change their vote from Pacman to Yoshi based on their splitting of this alleged old school vote is not a significant factor in this match. There are plenty of other realistic venues to persue before that one.

You're misunderstanding what the meaning is behind the Pac-Man SFF. It's not that he necessarily shares an "old-school" fanbase with Luigi and Yoshi. It's the fact that he is universally known. Like has been said before, against someone semi-obscure or not relatively popular like Kefka or Ocelot, Pac-Man will draw votes by DEFAULT for at least being known. You don't necessarily have to be a big fan of Pac-Man to vote for him. But when he goes up against someone just as well known as he is, and someone who is liked MORE than him, like Luigi or Yoshi, he collapses. I don't see anything wrong with that happening.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

What he's saying is that the majority of voters will default to voting Pac-Man against anyone who isn't a big name like Kefka or Ocelot. But because Yoshi and Luigi have been around a while and are known all over, they can steal these default votes from Pac-Man.
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This sig sucks and is now about trains.

Luigi/Pacman sff, Yoshi/Pacman sff? That's outrageous

Like Leonhart said... (paraphrased perhaps) "I have a hard time believing Laharl would give Pac-Man a run for his money.

then, add to that:

- Bowser beats Ocelot with 66%
- Yoshi beats Pac-Man who is slightly above Ocelot with 72-73%
- Bowser beats Yoshi with 56%

how else do you explain this match? based on a constant Ocelot, Yoshi would beat Bowser by as much as Sephiroth did. does anyone honestly think Yoshi increased from losing to Bowser with 44% to being able to beat Bowser with 60%?


something ain't stirring the kool-aid, ace.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

Doesn't Mario hold the title of worst Nintendo loss to a non-Nintendo character? I know Sephiroth killed him back in 2003, and I can't think of anything worse off the top of my head.

No wait, there's Fox's loss to Cloud back in 2002.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

You're misunderstanding what the meaning is behind the Pac-Man SFF. It's not that he necessarily shares an "old-school" fanbase with Luigi and Yoshi. It's the fact that he is universally known. Like has been said before, against someone semi-obscure or not relatively popular like Kefka or Ocelot, Pac-Man will draw votes by DEFAULT for at least being known. You don't necessarily have to be a big fan of Pac-Man to vote for him. But when he goes up against someone just as well known as he is, and someone who is liked MORE than him, like Luigi or Yoshi, he collapses. I don't see anything wrong with that happening.

So basically nobody gives a damn about pacman, and just vote for him over random nobody's that they've never heard of, correct? That makes some sense. Well more then yoshi being strong enough to beat bowser on steroids with 60% at least, although he most definitely has benefitted by the same boost that bowser has.
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bowser got like 29% on cloud >_>
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No, the idea is that people will vote for somebody if they at least know who he is (and EVERYBODY knows who Pac-Man is). They may not necessarily love him, but they at least know him. You go against somebody else that virtually everybody knows (such as Luigi or Yoshi), he loses those votes he gets just for being the guy the voter knows.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Doesn't Mario hold the title of worst Nintendo loss to a non-Nintendo character? I know Sephiroth killed him back in 2003, and I can't think of anything worse off the top of my head.

Mega Man/Resetti >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

the idea is that people will vote for somebody if they at least know who he is (and EVERYBODY knows who Pac-Man is).

I may not have worded it well, but that was more or less what I was trying to say (hence nobody giving a damn about him but voting for him over people they've never heard of).
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And that may also be part of the reason why Pac-Man isn't that much of a draw. People know him enough to vote for him by default, but there are so many people who are indifferent towards him despite knowing him that they might not bother to vote anyway.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Yeah... It's not the same as a traditional SFF, but it beats trying to come up with a new acronym for every explainable anomaly in the contest.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

We could call it NGaDAPMUHFaOCF (nobody gives a damn about pacman unless he faces an obscure character factor), but that's way too long >_>.
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From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/4/2005 10:31:41 AM | #091
You all realize what you're saying?

You're saying that there must be adjustments made because Pac-Man can beat characters less popular than him, but can't beat characters more popular than him.

While we're at it, let's adjust CJ. He's popular here, just not as popular as Ness, so we should adjust the Xstats to reflect this odd phenomena known as "the popularity contest". Let's call it PCF.

No, it's the phenomenon that "mainstreamness" increases the strength of a character beyond the rate that would form a linear relationship with the opposing character. While Pac Man is very well known, his actual strength may be very close to or just under that of Ocelot (Did I say Big Boss before? Same series >_>), the degree to which Pac Man is better known than Ocelot makes him do better than expected based on who would be voting for Pac Man regardless of his opponent. It is the casual appeal, really. I assume the higher vote totals than from past years create this effect in that a higher percentage of the new voters vote for the more mainstream characters.

For an example...

Let's say Pac Man has 35000 voters that love him and vote for him just because they love him. Ocelot has 40000. This is all predicted by the stats (except that some people, proportionate to the current standings, aren't gonna vote). There are also 15000 "new" voters that vote for more well known characters since they don't care about either character. Surprise surprise, Pac Man draws in 10001 and Ocelot 4999. This ratio may have been calculated into the previous X-Stats (which then throws them off for matches where characters are equally as known), but the number of voters was not. Before (say there where only 10000 such voters last time), Pac Man would have lost, and the X-Stats reflect that more accurately.

This time around, though, Yoshi is more well known, and he achieves 12000 while Pac Man gets 3000. This is higher than the 67% or so predicted, and Yoshi performs better than expected.

This is the type of thing that includes the pic factor and the day of the week. The only problem lies in determining when someone is voting based on the character's actual strength, and when they vote in the occurrence described. It's not usually so clear, obviously.

At the end of the scenario, some of the "old" voters leave and some of the "new" voters may become part of the character's actual strength and become "old" voters next time. Then more new voters (which may change the balance) come into the mix.

This is all really messed up, and I don't expect most people to just "accept it." It's really just a way of looking at matches and using the X-Stats as guidelines.

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

I just have a hard time thinkin' this match is an anomoly when Laharl and Pac were so close in the stats last year and are lookin' to have the almost-exact relationship again this year. Now, in close matches against more obscure characters, I can believe Pac doin' a lil' better than expected...yet, in losses like this, I now have problems with thinkin' Pac-Man is doin' worse than expected. Like Yoshi/Laharl hinted last round, I'm believin' this is all Yoshi gaining (though it's not really loads upon loads of gains, anyways).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/4/2005 1:22:27 PM | #176
I just have a hard time thinkin' this match is an anomoly when Laharl and Pac were so close in the stats last year and are lookin' to have the almost-exact relationship again this year. Now, in close matches against more obscure characters, I can believe Pac doin' a lil' better than expected...yet, in losses like this, I now have problems with thinkin' Pac-Man is doin' worse than expected. Like Yoshi/Laharl hinted last round, I'm believin' this is all Yoshi gaining (though it's not really loads upon loads of gains, anyways).

The AGONY

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Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

So you think Ocelot would have a hard time with Laharl after getting 35% on Bowser? Who got 60% on Ryu?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Who got 55% on Rikku! >_>;;
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

I'm holdin' back on judgment about Bowser right now; he confuses me, simple as that. For Revolver though, I think he fell victim to Pac-Man havin' some extra casual power like what's been talked about...though if you wanted to try to judge Revolver by his performance by his opponents other than Bowser (Nemesis, Dr. Wily, and Pac-Man), I wouldn't be surprised at Laharl not rolling over and dying to him, as unpopular an opinion as that may be.

I'd still take Revolver over Laharl, for what it's worth.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Call it SFF, call it SSF, call it Shirley for all I care. Fact of the matter is both Luigi and Yoshi beat Pac Man by more than they should. Don't remember who, but somebody talked about how Pac Man is at his best against characters who are not universally known (Kefka, Ocelot). Couldn't have said it better myself. Pac Man would beat Laharl comfortably, and I personally think he would beat Vyse as well. But when he has to face household names, his blandness takes over, and he gets pasted.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 57/64 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

Pac Man would beat Laharl comfortably, and I personally think he would beat Vyse as well. But when he has to face household names, his blandness takes over, and he gets pasted.

While making my indirect comparisons and comparisons-by-common-opponent with Pac and Laharl, I forgot to mention I wouldn't think Laharl would make much of a match for Pac-Man head-to-head. I wouldn't be surprised about Vyse, either. Good point.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

so tomorrow it's round three.
and i already lost three points on tidus. man am i gonna drop.
but will round 3 be better than the awesome round 2 we just had
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

There has to be some sort of overperformance by Yoshi here, maybe a hint of SFF. Unless you think Ocelot would struggle with Laharl.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

well a good deal of the spring field was fodder. so why not ocelot?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

so why not ocelot?

Because Ocelot put up 34% against Bowser.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Four points on Tidus next round, I think you mean (I'm goin' down too on that, heh). Either way, if alot of people above me point-wise (say, 100) will bite on the matches before Kirby/Bowser, I have a good chance of making the Top Fifty again this contest. From there though, if I don't somehow luck out and make it before that, my only long-shot of a hope is if Kirby and Vincent win their divisions and I get all the rest of my matches right.

Here's to hopin'.....
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

We're kicking the third round off with a great match. The range of possible percentage for Mario/Zero is pretty impressive, considering they're both characters we've seen for years.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I think Zero's gonna show his strength tomorrow. He'll probably push for 45%.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

I'm a little shocked to see Yoshi beating Pac-Man down this much harder than Luigi did...it makes me wonder what Link would do against him. I don't think he would hit 90% on Pac-Man...but 85%+ seems like a pretty safe bet. Poor Pac. ;_;
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

WHAT AM I FIGHTING FOOOOOOOOOOOOOR!?!?!?

Zero with 48%. Book it.

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Explicit Content.
Yay for being warned and in purg!

If we take Shadow into consideration, Zero is the dead center perfect candidate to overperform on Mario. I can realistically see him netting as much as 45%, but with Nintendo's performance so far, I'm thinking it's more likely that Mario pushes for 60/40. If Mr. Nintendo somehow ends up in the low 60s, I'll feel very good about him winning the whole thing.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Got bored, so I extropolated Pac through an unadjusted Yoshi from 2k4...and Pac would STILL get 82.1% on an adjusted Tanner.

Love it.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I can see Zero gettin' about 45% against Mario, but not higher...and I think Zero going below 44% would be the starting point of signs that Mario gaining this year.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

And Yoshi hasn't stopped increasing at all. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 74% at this rate.

Zero can play the role of Mega Man proxy, similar to the whole Shadow theory.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

go round 3 go round 3 you start when i start school
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

It's not so much a "proxy" this time around as it is the #2 badass hero of the series. Keep in mind that on top of this, Zero is not only genuinely stronger than Shadow, but is probably also hated by less people. Other than (possibly) Sonic, it's tough to find a character who has a better shot of overperforming against Mario.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I can't see Shadow getting 40+% on Sonic. Zero, however, did get 40+% on Mega Man (and Sonic even the year before, heh). He is about as strong as a non Noble Nine character can get. Heck, if I were still living in 2003 and after seeing Shadow's performance, I would be worried about a possible upset against Mario.

With that said though, I would be interested in seeing a Zero vs. Bowser match. Who wins?
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[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right. LBSJ