Well, looking at everything so far in this contest, it's hard to believe that Mario did not get a boost. Every single Nintendo character (minus Mario and Link, for various reasons) have shown an increase since last year. To believe that Mario did not get a boost is very risky.

Anyways, I believe that Mario will outperform Mega Man and Sonic against Zero, so that's why I went so high.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*

Btw, can some kind spirit tell me what Liquid Snake was projected to get against Sephiroth in the Spring?
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*

I'm on CJayC's buddy list. You think I'm going to flood him with stupid questions? Besides, assuming this is the sprite round, whatever he does will be fine. This always has been and will be his best work, for better or worse.

Uhhh.... I was obviously joking...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

24%

>_>
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Now watch, some hardcore fan of the stats will say that there is no actual evidence of there being a Nintendo boost despite Ryu, one of our most constant characters ever, getting his ass handed to him.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

I still think Zero will play the role of Mega Man proxy and overperform tomorrow.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Zero's gonna get at least 44% tomorrow, I think.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Btw, can some kind spirit tell me what Liquid Snake was projected to get against Sephiroth in the Spring?

20XX adjusted Liquid on Seph 2k4 was 35.3%
Unadjusted was 31.77%.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:05:26 AM | Message Detail | #452
Btw, can some kind spirit tell me what Liquid Snake was projected to get against Sephiroth in the Spring?

Something like 35%, give or take.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Zero has rocked as a competitor, and even though I have Mario winning the whole thing, I hope Zero proves his worth tomorrow.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

You know, Bowser CAN increase without all of Nintendo doing it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

And Zero gets no respect by the analysis crew. Prepare to be shocked by the awesomeness of Zero.
---
*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Zero in SC2k5

Now watch, some hardcore fan of the stats will say that there is no actual evidence of there being a Nintendo boost despite Ryu, one of our most constant characters ever, getting his ass handed to him.

Uh, it's pretty obvious that Ryu dropped at least a little. Being constant really means nothing other than that all your gains and losses added up to zero.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

The analysis crew will be getting this match more correct than those expecting something close.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.

I think the Analysis Crew is in for a bit of a shock, personally.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Even with Sp2k5 Bowser, Ryu underperformed, didn't he? To say nothing of Luigi/KOS-MOS (which if KOS-MOS stayed constant, Tifa beats 2k4 Sonic...). I still think there's an around-the-board Nintendo boost, but it's not exactly like it's a given, nor does it mean everyone increased proportionally. Hell, if it did you'd have me calling Snake over Bowser a goddamn lock right now.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Snake over Bowser is a lock. Snake > Zelda = Bowser.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I don't know how anyone could take Zelda over Bowser with any confidence. Vivi = Ryu sounds...out there.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Snake over Bowser can't be a lock when the latter is going to be the one winning.

---
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.

No, but see, that's why I don't call it a lock. Zelda and Bowser are around the same level in 2k3, but I have no reason to believe Zelda increased by the same factor as Bowser. That's why while I still believe Snake will win, I'm not going to do anything to make myself look foolish in calling it an absolute.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Snake will take care of Bowser without too much trouble.

Snake with 55%.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Uh, it's pretty obvious that Ryu dropped at least a little.

Why? Because he didn't perform to expectations against a new character and got his ass kicked by Bowser? An obvious drop, my foot.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Meh, if anything, Snake's gonna pull a Sonic to beat Bowser (as in, fight for his life but never let the opponent actually come close to winning).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

I don't know how anyone could take Zelda over Bowser with any confidence. Vivi = Ryu sounds...out there.

So does DK > Vivi.

Snake over Bowser can't be a lock when the latter is going to be the one winning.

Wow...your argument is just brilliant.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

The analysis crew did an excellent job with the upcoming match - my stats have Mario getting around 60%. Anyone expecting a close match is, to be frank, quite foolish.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

I don't buy Vivi being that close to Ryu.

I expect the match to be 53/47 or closer, regardless of who wins.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

So does DK > Vivi.

Yeah, and we won't get it.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

My stats say that Ryu dropped about 1.5% from 2k4-2k5, Bowser gained about 0.75% from 2k4-2k4sp and another 0.75% from 2k5sp-2k5.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

So much mixed reactions...

And I'm hoping Zero will do good. I don't care much for him, but I want to see him do well for some reason. (Make Samus look better, perhaps?)
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Yoshi vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (54/62)

Wow...your argument is just brilliant.

If you thought I was trying to make a legitimate argument then you have some learning to do.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.

Lol, x-stats.

(LS stats are actually pretty reliable, though; it's still sad to see Apro catch the stats bug, however)

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

It'd make Mega Man look better if Zero does well. That's probably what you're looking for.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

it's still sad to see Apro catch the stats bug, however

Uh...What? Those are his own personal stats (you know, the ones you ridiculed because they said Link/Magus was an anomaly), and they've proven to be decently reliable.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

"What bug?!" you exclaim.

From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:19:05 AM | Message Detail | #475
The analysis crew did an excellent job with the upcoming match - my stats have Mario getting around 60%. Anyone expecting a close match is, to be frank, quite foolish.

That one. I call it "Stat Arrogance".

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Nobody is saying that Zero/Mario will be close, but I don't think that Mario will break 60% on Zero.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

If and when I win this contest, those stats will have all been worth it. And the stats for the next contest are going to be even better, it's much easier to see year-to-year trends for certain characters - certain ones have risen consistently, some have dropped consistently, and some have increased and decreased with explainable reasons (e.g. KHF).
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

My bracket says Mega over Sonic, but my heart says Sonic over Mega.

God, this happens too much.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Yoshi vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (54/62)

Having reliable stats and calling people stupid for not agreeing with them are two entirely different things, and the latter is what I find most annoying about the Xst Blinder types.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Well, it is foolish to think Zero will give Mario a fight, I think. He'll perform respectably. He always does in a loss, it seems.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

My stats say that Ryu dropped about 1.5% from 2k4-2k5, Bowser gained about 0.75% from 2k4-2k4sp and another 0.75% from 2k5sp-2k5.


How about Zelda, Vivi, and Snake?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Anyone expecting a close match is, to be frank, quite foolish.

Ok, maybe that statement is a bit arrogant, but if anyone expects Mario to get less than 52-53%, then that would be quite foolish. 54-57 range is a believable, but 58+ is much more realistic, IMO.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/5/2005 12:24:27 AM | Message Detail | #486
If and when I win this contest, those stats will have all been worth it.

In that you can call people stupid for not agreeing with you and think that you have some ground to stand on when doing it? Winning a contest doesn't give you that right. Trust me, I would know.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Ok, maybe that statement is a bit arrogant, but if anyone expects Mario to get less than 52-53%, then that would be quite foolish. 54-57 range is a believable, but 58+ is much more realistic, IMO.

So, tell me then...why would Zero perform worse than Shadow?
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Hot damn, Shadow was a fluke.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

My stats have Zelda up about 1% from 2k3-2k5, Vivi down about 1% from 2k4-2k5, and Snake up about 0.5% from 2k4-2k5.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Because A. He's not a Mega Man clone (like Shadow is a Sonic clone) and B. His stats are under the assumption Mario has increased.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

Ok, maybe that statement is a bit arrogant, but if anyone expects Mario to get less than 52-53%, then that would be quite foolish. 54-57 range is a believable, but 58+ is much more realistic, IMO.

Ah, there we go =p

By the way, what's wrong with the 54-57 range? Isn't that what Zero would get before SFF, and didn't Shadow (ugh) get in there? And you have to think that Zero is stronger than him.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Snake > Sora

(baby steps, baby steps)
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

FACT OR FICTION: Shadow the Hedgehog's Summer 2004 value is relatively accurate.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Squall Leonhart > All
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine