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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 231
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:07:14 PM | Message Detail
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 9/3/2005 4:24:07 PM | #294
riiiight, becase thers SOOO much proof that crono > anyone in the noble 9, he = to mario.

2004 called, they want their credit back.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:08:19 PM | Message Detail
um yeah, 2k3 and 2k4 called, they wanted me to give you this msg......PWNED
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- - -
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:12:36 PM | Message Detail
In the event that he gets to Crono, he is going to get owned badly.

<3 <3 <3

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:13:31 PM | Message Detail
Crono will win the contest over Samus, hopefully.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:17:50 PM | Message Detail
god i hope crono looses. i can only assume he gets votes for his game, since gordon and master chief have more character than crono. magus, frog, luca, any one from chrono trigger>crono
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:17:50 PM | Message Detail
Gee, is that topic filled to the core with Sonic fanboys or what? You people are always way too optimistic about their chances. In the event that he gets to Crono, he is going to get owned badly.

After all the hyping of every character that's put their opponent away far better than expected, is this comment even warranted? = P
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:20:36 PM | Message Detail
After all the hyping of every character that's put their opponent away far better than expected, is this comment even warranted? = P

I have to agree. This is just Sonic's turn in the hypemobile...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: ShadowOwns | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:22:24 PM | Message Detail
Gee, is that topic filled to the core with Sonic fanboys or what? You people are always way too optimistic about their chances. In the event that he gets to Crono, he is going to get owned badly.


doesn't that sound so familiar? *remembers when everyone was overestimating tifa and vincent after their 1st round matches*
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45/whatever next winner=sonic
WE DO REALLY WANT BRET
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:23:05 PM | Message Detail
Well, give me a reason to believe Sonic's performance wasn't indicative of his true strength, and I'll back down off the bandwagon.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: cyko | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:29:08 PM | Message Detail
well, i'll admit that i am a bit underwhelemed by Megaman today. but, i'm not ready to jump on any Sonic bandwagons. ya gotta believe in the Blue Bomber!! why? because he's a .....

SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT!! MEGAMAN!!
SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT!! MEGAMAN!!
SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT!! MEGAMAN!!


<3 Blue Bomber

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:30:11 PM | Message Detail
I'll wait until Mega Man/Yoshi before I jump on the Sonic bandwagon.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:33:08 PM | Message Detail
I'm on the Sonic bandwagon already because I have him beating Mega Man and I want him to win in the first place.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: cyko | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:34:59 PM | Message Detail
I'll wait until Mega Man/Yoshi before I jump on the Sonic bandwagon.

yeah, if Sonic beats Tifa by more than Megaman beats Yoshi, then i will be very worried.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:35:47 PM | Message Detail
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:23:05 PM | Message Detail
Well, give me a reason to believe Sonic's performance wasn't indicative of his true strength, and I'll back down off the bandwagon.


Diablo bombed against Kratos Aurion. After watching Lloyd's bombing, I don't think that there is such a huge gap between Kratos and Lloyd. This suggests that Diablo might have been weaker than the stats say.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:37:11 PM | Message Detail
I really believe the Villains Contest was deceptive as a LOT of the characters there would be fodder in any Summer Contest. Hence why Diablo appears overrated and Ocelot bombed.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:38:36 PM | Message Detail
Diablo bombed against Kratos Aurion. After watching Lloyd's bombing, I don't think that there is such a huge gap between Kratos and Lloyd.

You really can't say that for sure. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable gap between Lloyd and Kratos. Heck, Tidus and Auron seem to have an even bigger one. I wouldn't really expect them to be all that close anyway. Kratos is MUCH more likeable.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:40:50 PM | Message Detail
You really can't say that for sure. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable gap between Lloyd and Kratos. Heck, Tidus and Auron seem to have an even bigger one. I wouldn't really expect them to be all that close anyway. Kratos is MUCH more likeable.

You have a point, but Lloyd looks like the worst kind of fodder while Kratos is well above the VFL based on Sp2k5 Diablo.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:41:58 PM | Message Detail
Kratos is about 21% on Link. That's not well above it. I guess it depends on where Zero is before we can judge Lloyd. He could be around 17% on Link. That's enough of a gap for me.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:43:33 PM | Message Detail
Mario vs. Zero seems to have a big range of possibilities to me. Zero could either put up 45% or not even break 40%.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:44:13 PM | Message Detail
Zero will break 40% if Shadow could get 45% at one point in time.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:45:52 PM | Message Detail
Ignoring the flukeishness of Mario/Shadow, it's quite possible the Mario that we're seeing today is a Mario on 'roids thanks to some sort of obscene Nintendo boost.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:46:16 PM | Message Detail
2k4 Mario is significally stronger un-adjusted 2k4 Mega Man. I wouldn't be surprised if Zero fails to break 40%.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:51:09 PM | Message Detail
Leon Kennedy vs. Tidus

Who wins?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:53:17 PM | Message Detail
Tidus.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 2:58:04 PM | Message Detail
I would pick Leon personally, but it would be a close match.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:05:36 PM | Message Detail
Here's my ranking for each character, before the contest, after round 1 and after round 2.

Mushroom Division before the contest

1. Mario
2. Zero
3. Carl Johnson
4. Ness
5. Ryu Hayabusa
6. Lloyd Irving
7. Albert Wesker
8. Joanna Dark

Mario and Zero are a given, Hayabusa may be stronger than Ness, I never really fell into the hype Lloyd was getting and with only one game near the end of the Nintendo 64 life won't get Joanna high.

Mushroom Division after round 1

1. Mario
2. Zero
3. Ryu Hayabusa
4. Ness
5. Carl Johnson
6. Lloyd Irving
7. Albert Wesker
8. Joanna

Zero could've dropped, but I think Hayabusa's ninja picture might've helped, Ness beat CJ so he's obviously stronger then him.

Mushroom Division after round 2

1. Mario
2. Zero
3. Ryu Hayabusa
4. Ness
5. Carl Johnson
6. Lloyd Irving
7. Albert Wesker
8. Joanna

No change here.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:06:22 PM | Message Detail
I go with Leon, ESPECIALLY if it happens next year.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:08:27 PM | Message Detail
Leon/Tidus? I don't know, to contend with Tidus 2k4 Freeman's boost would have to be out of this world--but then again, I think Tidus is even weaker this year, to boot. At the moment I'd go with Tidus, but next year I might choose to go with the 'upset' depending on if Mega Man goes on to disappoint or not.

I might also have to make Gordon Freeman win a match... ;_;
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:09:13 PM | Message Detail
Its going to be so weird if GF doesnt rank as fodder this year.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:09:17 PM | Message Detail
*waits for Charmander's post*
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:16:35 PM | Message Detail
Zebes Division before contest

1. Samus
2. Ganondorf
3. Frog
4. Auron
5. Yuna
6. Riku
7. Big Boss
8. Yuri

Samus should easily take the division, Frog/Auron should be interesting and so would Yuna/Riku and Yuri should be a contender for one of the weakest characters.

Zebes Division after round 1

1. Samus
2. Ganondorf
3. Auron
4. Frog
5. Riku
6. Yuna
7. Big Boss
8. Yuri

What happened Frog? It looks like your 4-pack last year was bad with Liquid Snake and Master Chief also performing badly. Yuna also did good against Ganondorf, but I still don't think I'll take her over Frog yet.

Zebes Division after round 2

1. Samus
2. Ganondorf
3. Auron
4. Yuna
5. Frog
6. Riku
7. Big Boss
8. Yuri

Okay with Frog's bad performance against Samus plus with Ganondorf easily beating Auron puts Yuna as the fourth strongest character in her division.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:19:02 PM | Message Detail
Leon Kennedy vs. Tidus

It'd be a close one, but I would have to pick Tidus.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: tidnab raw | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:20:00 PM | Message Detail
i guss this is a pLace to ask this. the way i see it is its going to be the mario sonic final we have wated for for 2 1/2 years.

some one tell me why im crazey and rank the top 5 as of today plz thanks


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To excel you must kick ass. How do you get EXP weapons, equipment and money quickly? Kicking ass.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:23:33 PM | Message Detail
You're probably crazy, but I'll help out. For just the main bracket, my top five as of now is:

1. Samus
2. Mario
3. Crono
4. Sonic
5. Mega Man

Looking at Nintendo right now, I don't think Crono has a chance in hell at Mario. Also, depending on how Freeman is, I'm tempted to give Snake Mega Man's #5 spot, but no amount of fanboyism can erase the memories of last year.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:23:50 PM | Message Detail
Gear Division before the contest

1. Solid Snake
2. Zelda
3. Alucard
4. Sora
5. Vivi
6. Kratos
7. Manny Calavera
8. Agent 47

Despite what people say Snake should take the division. Places 2-5 are so close together that I spent way too much time thinking on where they rank. Agent 47 = Neo-Tanner.

Gear Division after round 1

1. Solid Snake
2. Zelda
3. Alucard
4. Sora
5. Vivi
6. Kratos
7. Agent 47
8. Manny Calavera

2-4 are now close together. What happen to you Vivi, the only reason I didn't put you below Kratos was because Zelda could've gain. Neo-Tanner my ass 47 has some kind of strength.

Gear Divisiona after round 2

1. Solid Snake
2. Zelda
3. Sora
4. Alucard
5. Vivi
6. Kratos
7. Agent 47
8. Manny Calavera

Sora and Alucard switch places since Sora won and since Alucard lost be so much I don't think Kratos would beat Vivi, but he'll at least make it close.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:31:10 PM | Message Detail
I'll do the other half tomorrow

Dream Division before the contest

1. Tidus
2. Ryu
3. Bowser
4. Kirby
5. Rikku
6. Chun-Li
7. Cecil
8. King of All Cosmos

Yes I'm one of the few guys with Tidus > Ryu > Bowser, Chun-Li/Cecil could be close, but I'm going to have to give Chun-Li the edge and KoAC will probably be one of the weakest charactes.

Dream Division after round 1

1. Tidus
2. Ryu
3. Bowser
4. Kirby
5. Rikku
6. Chun-Li
7. King of All Cosmos
8. Cecil

No my Tidus > Ryu > Bowser upset. Also can KoAC > Cecil, I find it hard to believe, but I have to for my bracket.

Dream Division after round 2

1. Bowser
2. Kirby
3. Ryu
4. Tidus
5. Rikku
6. Chun-Li
7. Cecil
8. King of All Cosmos

Big shake up here, both Bowser and Kirby take the top two spots with their huge wins. Tidus has the risk to lose to Rikku and just like I thought KoAC couldn't have beaten Cecil.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:34:18 PM | Message Detail
So how is this match doing in vote totals?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:35:56 PM | Message Detail
Zero sure is looking overrated now.

40% on unadjusted Mega Man... Mario should kill him.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: metoolfan | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:37:47 PM | Message Detail
^ nearly 3 quarters through the match and it's just over 70000 votes. That's not on course to get 100,000, which has been a benchmark for matches so far.
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PH33R THE HANDGESTURE! http://handgesture.ytmnd.com/
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:43:41 PM | Message Detail
I just checked. It's about 3.4k behind Tifa/Luigi.

(At 15:40):

Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy - 70808
Tifa Lockheart vs. Luigi - 74296
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Diablo - 66616
Dante vs. Vincent Valentine - 72840
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:53:37 PM | Message Detail
Looking at that, I realized that Sonic is doing horrible at drawing votes for his matches. Even the other characters who faced weaker and more obscure opponents could pull in more votes.

It's going to take votes to beat your opponents, Sonic!
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mega Man vs. Leon - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Leon (52/60)
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:54:49 PM | Message Detail
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Diablo - 66616
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:56:33 PM | Message Detail
As long as he holds opponents to less votes, he can win. He's like the Baltimore Ravens of the contest. Defense wins championships.
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SC2K5 Score: 53/60
Today's Pick: Mega Man
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:56:37 PM | Message Detail
^ nearly 3 quarters through the match and it's just over 70000 votes. That's not on course to get 100,000, which has been a benchmark for matches so far.

90,000 I thought was the benchmark.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 9/3/2005 3:58:51 PM | Message Detail
100,000 has hardly been the benchmark.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/3/2005 4:05:38 PM | Message Detail
FACT or FICTION: Yoshi will fail to break 60% tomorrow.

Tnote put up great arguments for this in the contest crew topic.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 50/62 points
Current Match Prediction: Yoshi vs. Revolver Ocelot
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/3/2005 4:12:13 PM | Message Detail
FACT or FICTION: Yoshi will fail to break 60% tomorrow.

Fiction, like Luigi Yoshi should get some kind of SFF tomorrow. Hopefully it won't be just as bad.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/3/2005 4:16:01 PM | Message Detail
Fiction: Pac Man performed well on Kefka and Revolver Ocelot because they aren't characters well known by everyone (or at least they weren't recognized by everyone in their pics). Everyone knows who Pac-Man is, so he most likely automatically draws the votes of said group of people.

Luigi and Yoshi are well known as well, so they take that advantage away from Pac-Man.

On a side note: I just noticed that the majority of the top 50 have Samus winning...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/3/2005 4:35:13 PM | Message Detail
Exactly. Everyone knows Pac-Man, but he doesn't usually place high on favorite's lists. More people might know Pac-Man over Kefka and Ocelot, but GameFAQs likes Luigi and Yoshi more than Pac-Man, so they'll get the votes.

How else do you think Luigi creamed Pac-Man?
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mega Man vs. Leon - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Leon (52/60)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/3/2005 4:59:06 PM | Message Detail
Match 48: (3) Yoshi vs. (7) Pac-Man

Past Performances

Yoshi


Summer 2005
Beat Laharl, 73.66% - 26.34%

Win - Lose Record
4-2

Pac-Man

Summer 2005
Beat Revolver Ocelot, 51.25% - 48.75%

Win - Lose Record
3-3

Analysis

This match has me torn up; Pac-Man is my second favorite non-Nintendo character while Yoshi is my second favorite character. Sadly Yoshi should easily win this match and this may be the first time I didn’t vote for Yoshi in one of his matches and may be the only time (unless he gets paired up against Mario).

Here we have Yoshi who after Luigi’s gain and Vyse’s fall did better than expected against Laharl. This could contribute to an all Nintendo rise (or the stats being so wrong since all we had been 2k3) that people have been talking about. Hey Pac-Man we haven’t seen you in round 2 since 2k2 and with an upset (which as time went didn’t seem so big) against Ocelot you’ve made it again.

So in 2k4 Luigi easily doubled Pac-Man while Yoshi beat Luigi 55/45 so Yoshi wins with 70% right? Not so fast, Bowser couldn’t even double Ocelot during the spring and Pac-Man beat him and in 2k3 Bowser easily beat Yoshi. So it looks like this match can range anywhere from 58/42 to 70/30.

Well, the thing is Pac-Man doesn’t really have a stable number to really rely on. Any true gamer (and most non-gamers) knows Pac-Man, you can’t deny it, he was the first gaming Mascot ever. When is comes to voting for a character you like most people would rather ditch Pac-Man and vote for the other character they know/like. So the less known to the masses you are the better Pac-Man will do. That is why Pac-Man did so well against Kefka and Ocelot and totally bombed against Luigi. The only problem with this theory is that it only happened once to Pac-Man so it could’ve just been a case of Pac-Man having a bad match.

Even though it’s not by much, I fully expect Luigi to be more known by the masses than Yoshi, since it’s highly possible that people know Luigi without ever playing a Mario game, but they wouldn’t know Yoshi. I have a feeling that Pac-Man will perform better on Yoshi than Luigi despite Yoshi being stronger. Again don’t forget that Pac-Man only faced a mainstream character once so we don’t know what will happen.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Yoshi over Revolver Ocelot

charmander6000’s Prediction: Yoshi wins, 65.52% - 34.48%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
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