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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 230
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:25:59 PM | Message Detail
55% against Cloud will be absolutely amazing.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:26:26 PM | Message Detail
You wouldn't happen to have a bet on that particular match would you, or some other bet that would interfere with that? Because I'm willing to do whatever terms you want with me siding with Cloud.

Vincent and Tifa bombed

Look, I just went through that.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:27:23 PM | Message Detail
No, I don't. But, it'll be too far into the contest, and I have to put in my guru sig when it's over.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:27:46 PM | Message Detail
Who, me? My two parts of my sig are in a bit already (Guru and against Xen in Sonic/MM). There's no way I'm account betting either, because I wouldn't want you nor I to leave this place.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:27:46 PM | Message Detail
I never said it had to be a signature bet.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:27:49 PM | Message Detail
We don't know if Tifa and Vincent bombed, seriously. We don't know their levels. If Vincent had lost to Kerrigan, would we have made that a reflection upon Cloud? No, we would have just rationalized that he was optional and went on with our lives. If Tifa hadn't performed to expectations? Guess the spoiler and KH helped Aeris more than we thought. For all we know, this is a better performance than they would have put up in previous years. We simply just do not know where FFVII stands yet. And we won't until Cloud/Link and Sephy/SC2k5 Champion.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:28:47 PM | Message Detail
Look, I just went through that.

I don't care about personal expectations. Right now, Tifa is bombing. She's getting only 53% on a NINTENDO character that Squall beat with over 60%. That is bombing.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:29:37 PM | Message Detail
I don't care about personal expectations. Right now, Tifa is bombing. She's getting only 53% on a NINTENDO character that Squall beat with over 60%. That is bombing.

And even if Luigi stays constant, why would Tifa have to be above Squall?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:30:00 PM | Message Detail
Hey, it was fun getting all crazy, but most of us were far more reasonable back before they decimated Vyse and Kerrigan, wouldn't you say?

True. It was kinda fun calling Vincent over Squall, Magus, and Crono.

But it was NOT cool when Tifa over Sonic was being book'd.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Tifa vs. Luigi - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Luigi (50/58)
From: Mumei | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:30:09 PM | Message Detail
What would be so bad about Link beating Cloud with 55%, Heroic Mario?

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<_<
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:30:21 PM | Message Detail
I don't care about personal expectations. Right now, Tifa is bombing. She's getting only 53% on a NINTENDO character that Squall beat with over 60%. That is bombing.

Explain to me how a character can "bomb" if there is no data on him/her and throwing personal expectations aside? And you'd be an fool to think Luigi is on the same level as he was in 2003. I cannot believe people are still treating this like Luigi is as low as he has been in previous contests. It is obvious that he is not that low.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:31:22 PM | Message Detail
What would be so bad about Link beating Cloud with 55%, Heroic Mario?

Everything and then some. The day that happens it'll be my last.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:32:16 PM | Message Detail
And even if Luigi stays constant, why would Tifa have to be above Squall?

She's an FFVII character. She's supposed to be a force, and most likely near elite. Right now, she's performing on the level of Knuckles 2k4, if Luigi remained constant. I highly doubt that Luigi rose to astronomical proportions.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:32:49 PM | Message Detail
I think it's obvious that Luigi rose a bit, but you'd have to be crazy to think that Vyse didn't drop here. Would you expect Samus to put up these numbers against ANY Luigi, even before SFF? Hell, would you expect Crono to do so, after what he did to Mario last year?

We simply still do not know Tifa's strength, because Vyse likely dropped and Luigi likely rose.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:34:31 PM | Message Detail
Wait, HM, I thought you liked Link?
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:34:46 PM | Message Detail
I highly doubt that Luigi rose to astronomical proportions.

Well, this is why you actually think of a reasonable increase given everything we know. RPGuy made a very persuading argument that Luigi was nowhere near as low as he was in the stats before the contest began using previous data. That combined with his demolishing of KOS-MOS, who he was projected to beat by very marginal amount, and the overall Nintendo boost seems to imply that Luigi by quite a margin. It is nowhere near Sonic's level like his round 1 match implied, but it's still much higher than 2004.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:35:58 PM | Message Detail
there is no way Peach is on Zelda's level. not even close.

Yeah, I doubt that too, I meant equivalent heroine.

Zelda does more in OOT than Peach has done in any game ever.(Besides SMB2 I guess)

Eh, but Peach does have smb2, and she was playable (for a bit) in Paper Mario for N64. Peach is just as prominent as Zelda in her games. And she'll have her own game too, this year. Princess Peach at least deserves a chance to show that she's weak. I wouldn't see her being weaker than Wario, personally. I'd say she's closer to Yoshi than Wario.


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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:36:10 PM | Message Detail
She's an FFVII character. She's supposed to be a force, and most likely near elite.

In this contest, we have seen three FF7 characters. One is the FF7 hero. The other is the villain. And the other is one of the most infamous figures in gaming, for obvious reasons. All three were featured in Kingdom Hearts with relatively important or exciting roles.

Tifa doesn't have any of this. She's simply a heroine from FF7, and all we have to go on with her are expectations. If she's significantly weaker than Aeris, I won't bat an eye. It's not exactly like we can say that's impossible at this point.

Right now, she's performing on the level of Knuckles 2k4, if Luigi remained constant. I highly doubt that Luigi rose to astronomical proportions.

Luigi likely rose, but there's nothing to say that he had to rise THAT much. And there's nothing to say that he had to, as Tifa is an unknown.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:36:25 PM | Message Detail
That combined with his demolishing of KOS-MOS, who he was projected to beat by very marginal amount, and the overall Nintendo boost seems to imply that Luigi by quite a margin.

His demolishing of KOS-MOS isn't as impressive when you look at what Ryu did in Round 2.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:36:40 PM | Message Detail
because Vyse likely dropped and Luigi likely rose.

I hope your prepared to be bombarded by responses of

"It's impossible for Vyse to drop after staying constant for two years!"

and

"Vyse fall below Laharl, who he beat 60-40? That's just crazy!"


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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Tifa vs. Luigi - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Luigi (50/58)
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:37:10 PM | Message Detail
I think it's obvious that Luigi rose a bit, but you'd have to be crazy to think that Vyse didn't drop here.

Of course. I don't think Tifa is still looking good to beat Sonic or anything.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:38:17 PM | Message Detail
His demolishing of KOS-MOS isn't as impressive when you look at what Ryu did in Round 2.

I would pray you don't believe Bowser didn't increase too.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:38:54 PM | Message Detail
I hope your prepared to be bombarded by responses of

"It's impossible for Vyse to drop after staying constant for two years!"

and

"Vyse fall below Laharl, who he beat 60-40? That's just crazy!"


Don't worry, I already dealt with those when I argued my many reasons why I believed Vyse dropped--with HM, no less. ; D
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:38:54 PM | Message Detail
Tifa doesn't have any of this. She's simply a heroine from FF7, and all we have to go on with her are expectations. If she's significantly weaker than Aeris, I won't bat an eye. It's not exactly like we can say that's impossible at this point.

She's one of the most important characters in the storyline. Everyone remembers her for her TJF. Not to mention, she's been proven to be one of the most popular characters in the game.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:40:08 PM | Message Detail
Eh, but Peach does have smb2, and she was playable (for a bit) in Paper Mario for N64.

Not to mention her shower scene in TTYD.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:40:23 PM | Message Detail
I would pray you don't believe Bowser didn't increase too.

So you think Bowser would be a threat to Sonic?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:41:33 PM | Message Detail
So you think Bowser would be a threat to Sonic?

Explain "threat" a little more, because Bowser would most certainly come close to taking on Sonic -- assuming he isn't on level with Crono like a constant Diablo seemed to imply.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:42:31 PM | Message Detail
She's one of the most important characters in the storyline.

So is Lucrecia. I wonder how powerful she'd be?

Everyone remembers her for her TJF.

And everyone remembers Pac-Man for gobbling pellets. Taht doesn't matter--what matters is if they like the character enough to vote for them over any other given character.

Not to mention, she's been proven to be one of the most popular characters in the game.

And this is just speculation. Virtually all the character polls that I have been shown have been multiple character polls, which are very misleading for direct matchups (unless you want to believe that because of that Mario Character poll Yoshi > Mario). The polls are also usually old, and have small voting samples that give a rather large margin of error. And they're not even necessarily representative of our voting population right now.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:42:35 PM | Message Detail
I would take neither Bowser nor Ganondorf over Sonic, regardless of what the stats might imply (and they seem to imply a Sonic win, heh).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:43:36 PM | Message Detail
I do. And Bowser will prove it when he beats Snake.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:43:48 PM | Message Detail
Explain "threat" a little more, because Bowser would most certainly come close to taking on Sonic -- assuming he isn't on level with Crono like a constant Diablo seemed to imply.

By threat, I mean their match would go 50-50.

And Bowser won't be anywhere near Sonic.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:44:08 PM | Message Detail
If Tifa beats Sonic, I'm going with the "Luigi is a Mario proxy" theory, similar to the Mario/Shadow one...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:44:48 PM | Message Detail
No, I dont think it will be 50-50. Maybe less than 53-47 though.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:44:49 PM | Message Detail
I do. And Bowser will prove it when he beats Snake.

Beating Snake wouldn't prove it to me since I think Sonic's stronger than him. And I don't think Bowser will win anyway.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:45:45 PM | Message Detail
And Bowser won't be anywhere near Sonic.

He'll be very near to Sonic if Sonic is close to his 2004 value.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:46:57 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Sonic is, personally. Come on, what's his excuse for beating Diablo much worse than Ganondorf did?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:47:14 PM | Message Detail
So is Lucrecia. I wonder how powerful she'd be?

Sorry I forgot to add. Main playable character.

And everyone remembers Pac-Man for gobbling pellets. Taht doesn't matter--what matters is if they like the character enough to vote for them over any other given character.

TJF is far more powerful than gobbling pellets in this contest.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:48:03 PM | Message Detail
He'll be very near to Sonic if Sonic is close to his 2004 value.

Bowser won't be anywhere near Sonic, because he'll be losing to Snake 55-45%.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Starion | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:48:04 PM | Message Detail
Diablo weakened in 3 months? Site linkage during the Spring but not in the Summer?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:49:19 PM | Message Detail
Diablo weakened in 3 months?

...Why? And to the level of two characters he beat in the Spring?

Site linkage during the Spring but not in the Summer?

Diablo's final value is based on Ganondorf, a match in which he had no link. Heck, diabloii.net actually DID link yesterday, though it was probably late.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:49:30 PM | Message Detail
Not to mention her shower scene in TTYD.

*hasnt' played that game*

*is suddenly a bit more curious towards that game*

And I wouldn't take Bowser over Sonic, but I wouldn't take Snake over Sonic anyway.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:50:57 PM | Message Detail
Bowser won't be anywhere near Sonic, because he'll be losing to Snake 55-45%.

But he won't be losing to Snake. Much like how he didn't lose to Ryu.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:51:22 PM | Message Detail
I really cant say, maybe the extra voters worked against Diablo. Or maybe like Frog and others in the past, he was a rally figure and after that one contest, Diablo lost that.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:51:24 PM | Message Detail
Snake is in a whole 'nother league.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:52:11 PM | Message Detail
Snake will beat Bowser, much like how he beat Zelda.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 48/60 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Leon Kennedy
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:52:29 PM | Message Detail
Sorry I forgot to add. Main playable character.

'Main'? You must be thinking of Cloud. Party member? Sure. Just like all the other party members in the game that she's supposedly above. And especially Aeris, who is more important to the story, and has the extra factor of being in Kingdom Hearts. All Tifa has is more screentime, and Kuja obviously taught us that screentime later in the game doesn't count for that much.

And even with all this, I wouldn't be surprised if somehow Tifa ranks above Aeris. But you're assuming she does, and assuming a given strength for her. That's wrong. You don't know her strength. You don't know her range. And you don't know her ceiling. So stop trying to pretend that you do.

TJF is far more powerful than gobbling pellets in this contest.

That's an assumption of yours. In my view, they account for virtually none of the deciding factor in how the voters think--certainly not on a level to tip the scales of a match in any character's favor.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: DBZFIGHTERS | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:52:53 PM | Message Detail
I shall win this contest.

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Die hard Cubs, Pistons, Patriot and Maple Leaf fan
Owl Squad Member ( ēvē( ēvē )ēvē ) O RLY?
From: DBZFIGHTERS | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:53:10 PM | Message Detail
Go Samus!

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Die hard Cubs, Pistons, Patriot and Maple Leaf fan
Owl Squad Member ( ēvē( ēvē )ēvē ) O RLY?
From: Starion | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:53:11 PM | Message Detail
Interesting idea NewLib. The Spring was his first appearance after all. The rally idea might apply to him.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/2/2005 8:53:19 PM | Message Detail
Squall Leonhart shall defeat Vincent Valentine. Bank on it!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine
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