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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 229
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:13:14 AM | Message Detail
Thinkin' back on it, I think Tifa took half the day-vote and Vyse took the other half...somebody care to decide this? I think I jumped the gun with it, but I wanna know for sure.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:14:31 AM | Message Detail
Luigi undoubtedly increased and to top it all off, this is usually his best time. There's no reason to say such a thing at this point. You act as though Luigi's on par with his 2004 ranking.

I almost sure Luigi has grown, but just because he did good with the board vote against Ratchet, Squall and Pac-Man (which are much better as the day goes on) doesn't mean he'll dominate against everyone with it. The only reason he probably did so well was because he had more people with Luigi winning.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:14:39 AM | Message Detail
And what are you talking about, HaRRicH? Vyse took % from Tifa during the day.

That's understandable given how high a percentage Tifa actually had. And I seem to recall her increasing a little and then losing some of it later on.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:15:32 AM | Message Detail
Tifa reached her highest percentage an hour into the match. Luigi is going to be >>> than Vyse with the day vote, so where Tifa is in 45 minutes is her ceiling.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:15:49 AM | Message Detail
Alright, Squeegy pulled up another .15%, and with that, I'm headed off to bed.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:15:54 AM | Message Detail
Not much of a change here for Tifa.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:16:16 AM | Message Detail
And tifa just lost a very small amount of percentage. It appears that the night vote is already stabalizing.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:17:01 AM | Message Detail
where Tifa is in 45 minutes is her ceiling.

Hah! That's hilarious. Tifa will be increasing in percentage throughout the night and into the morning hours. I expect her to be a couple of percentage points higher when I wake up.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:17:16 AM | Message Detail
Vyse began to stabilize and take back percentage a few hours into his match with Tifa. Tifa's second charge came about 13-14 hours into the poll, and she carried that into the night vote.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:18:43 AM | Message Detail
Tifa gained .4% from 11:00 AM EST on. Thats not exactly big.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:18:47 AM | Message Detail
Nah, Vyse gained a little over a % with the early day vote and then they just hovered at the same Vyse raised % until the night vote. I do realize the %s do favor the lower guy with the day vote by default, but you can't possibly say she won it.

Tifa's nothing special with the daytime. She's gonna have to gain % more rapidly to break 60%. (ain't happenin)
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:18:48 AM | Message Detail
Vyse began to stabilize and take back percentage a few hours into his match with Tifa. Tifa's second charge came about 13-14 hours into the poll, and she carried that into the night vote.

Luigi's Day Vote > Vyse's Day Vote

Luigi should at least go 50/50 with Tifa.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: transience | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:18:53 AM | Message Detail
you're basing Tifa's day vote on one match with a fodderific character. Luigi will give us a better idea.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:19:03 AM | Message Detail
Now that Sonic/Diablo is over, I'm gonna give OFFICIAL stats that I gave just hours ago. Using four matches that aren't even a year old, here's how Samus can beat Sephiroth (without accounting for any of her demos or MP2 if they help her):

--Sephiroth VS Ganondorf (41.83% for Ganon)
--Diablo VS Ganondorf (34.8% for Diablo without linkage)
--Sonic VS Diablo (31.45% for Diablo with linkage)
--Sonic VS Samus (42.49% for Sonic)

With these four matches, Samus gets 54.09%...not shabby.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:19:35 AM | Message Detail
Why is it hilarious. Why is Luigi going to be worst outside of the late night hours than VYSE was.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:20:27 AM | Message Detail
And Tifa falls again.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:21:19 AM | Message Detail
"OMG TIFA WILL TAKE THE MAIN BRACKET WITH HER % AGAINST VYSE!"

...
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:21:35 AM | Message Detail
Ouch.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:22:01 AM | Message Detail
You know, we have no idea what this does for Tifa--using a constant KOS-MOS, wasn't Luigi projected to beat Sonic 2k4? For all we know, he could be as weak as ever or strong as hell...just saying.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:22:10 AM | Message Detail
Falls is a bit misleading, her lead went up 30. Her percent dropped a fair bit, though.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:23:01 AM | Message Detail
Percentage, however, is all that matters when you are trying to compare a character against a character not in the match.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:24:25 AM | Message Detail
I'm not going to get into that argument again.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:25:10 AM | Message Detail
You know, we have no idea what this does for Tifa--using a constant KOS-MOS, wasn't Luigi projected to beat Sonic 2k4? For all we know, he could be as weak as ever or strong as hell...just saying.

Thank you. Heh, I'll comment more later though...like, tomorrow evening or maybe tomorrow morning. I gotta sleep though; I have Spanish in the morning.

Tifa or Ganon, who wins?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:25:27 AM | Message Detail
What argument? You cant compare two characters by the amount of votes they get when they arent in a match together. It proves it be even MORE unreliable than percentages.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: transience | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:25:50 AM | Message Detail
...sucks for Luigi.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:25:55 AM | Message Detail
Blast. Tifa just murdered that update.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:26:00 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:27:03 AM | Message Detail
Bang!

Her Bra just snapped her foward by a lot.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: LuniNutz99 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:27:04 AM | Message Detail
DAMN! Go Tifa!

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:27:16 AM | Message Detail
Right now? I dont know. Tifa's at 57. I think Ganon could beat Luigi 62-38 without SFF, so it just matters where they finish up.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:30:37 AM | Message Detail
What argument? You cant compare two characters by the amount of votes they get when they arent in a match together. It proves it be even MORE unreliable than percentages.

Whatever. Believe what you want, the correlation between average vote total and stronger characters is clear.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:30:40 AM | Message Detail
and she falls .5%

I'm going to bed now.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:31:10 AM | Message Detail
Okay Luigi's totals just went from 165-113-173. WHAT THE HELL.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:31:30 AM | Message Detail
Whatever. Believe what you want, the correlation between average vote total and stronger characters is clear.

Squall and Luigi > Sonic?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:32:21 AM | Message Detail
What did you not understand about the word average?
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:33:34 AM | Message Detail
What did you not understand about the word average?

There are a bunch of weaker characters than Sonic that consistently reign in the votes. He's just not a big vote draw. Doesn't keep him from being one of the strongest characters in the contest.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:34:05 AM | Message Detail
Top 3 vote totals: Snake/Zelda, Dorf/Yuna, and Luigi/KOS-MOS.

You can judge some strength, but it isnt nearly accurate. Thats proven above.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:34:52 AM | Message Detail
I'm not getting into this again. Believe what you want.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:35:36 AM | Message Detail
Ill believe what I want when Luigi is one of the top draws in this contest.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:39:04 AM | Message Detail
Top 25 All Time Most Popular Polls (by vote total)

1) Summer 2003 - Final Four - (1) Link [71438] vs (1) Cloud [76199] - 147637
2) Summer 2003 - South Round 3 - (1) Mario [66571] vs (4) Crono [66434] - 133005
3) Summer 2002 - North Round 4 - (1) Mario [64990] vs (2) Cloud [64713] - 129703
4) Summer 2003 - Finals - (1) Cloud [64578] vs (2) Sephiroth [59865] - 124443
5) Summer 2004 - Finals - (1) Link [64443] vs (1) Cloud [59910] - 124353
6) Summer 2003 - Final Four - (2) Sephiroth [75979] vs (2) Mega Man [48213] - 124192
7) Summer 2003 - South Round 4 - (1) Mario [47458] vs (2) Sephiroth [76129] - 123587
8) Summer 2003 - West Round 4 - (1) Solid Snake [55322] vs (2) Mega Man [63639] - 118961
9) Summer 2003 - North Round 2 - (6) Squall [69958] vs (3) Luigi [46232] - 116190
10) Summer 2003 - North Round 1 - (5) Tidus [57078] vs (12) Ganondorf [58660] - 115738
11) Summer 2003 - West Round 1 - (7) Lara Croft [42940] vs (10) Zelda [70941] - 113881
12) Summer 2003 - North Round 1 - (7) KOS-MOS [34246] vs (2) Samus [78948] - 113194
13) Summer 2003 - East Round 2 - (1) Cloud [81716] vs (8) Auron [31470] - 113186
14) Summer 2003 - West Round 3 - (3) Tommy Vercetti [37456] vs (2) Mega Man [75551] - 113007
15) Spring 2004 - Division 128 Round 1 - (1) Halo [56258] vs (16) Starcraft [56631] - 112889
16) Summer 2003 - East Round 1 - (7) Zero [70885] vs (10) Scorpion [41916] - 112801
17) Summer 2003 - North Round 3 - (6) Squall [47103] vs (2) Samus [65582] - 112685
18) Summer 2003 - South Round 3 - (6) Alucard [30891] vs (2) Sephiroth [80539] - 111430
19) Summer 2003 - East Round 3 - (1) Cloud [77991] vs (5) Bowser [33381] - 111372
20) Summer 2003 - North Round 3 - (1) Link [72188] vs (13) Magus [38747] - 110935
21) Summer 2003 - South Round 1 - (2) Sephiroth [90364] vs (15) Raziel [19838] - 110202
22) Summer 2003 - North Round 2 - (12) Ganondorf [54529] vs (13) Magus [55179] - 109708
23) Summer 2003 - East Round 1 - (8) Auron [70199] vs (9) Tails [38685] - 108884
24) Summer 2003 - South Round 2 - (1) Mario [59756] vs (9) Shadow [48694] - 108450
25) Summer 2003 - North Round 4 - (1) Link [67294] vs (2) Samus [41139] - 108433


From what I can tell, Luigi's name appears on this list what, once?
---
Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:40:49 AM | Message Detail
Here's to hoping Luigi kills during the day. A 55/45 match probably means concession by the FFVII marks.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:42:45 AM | Message Detail
Dorf, Auron, Squall, Magus, Tidus, Zelda, and Zero are all greater than Sonic apparently then.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:43:45 AM | Message Detail
The only reason he probably did so well was because he had more people with Luigi winning.

Thank you, I'm glad someone finally said that. The entire board was backing him against Squall; it makes sense that he had the first update.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:44:57 AM | Message Detail
Dorf, Auron, Squall, Magus, Tidus, Zelda, and Zero are all greater than Sonic apparently then.

And Magus will obviously beat Knuckles. There will be exceptions.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:46:44 AM | Message Detail
The great flaw in this is outside of Clinkeroth, the rest of the characters are only up there usually when they face big name opponents. If Dorf made it to the Semi-Finals, he be up there TWICE as many times. Its flawed. Of course the Semi-Finals and Finals are going to have higher vote totals.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:50:36 AM | Message Detail
Wow, I didn't expect Zelda/Lara to be up there...I mean...Lara?
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:51:08 AM | Message Detail
There's correlation, but not enough to really infer anything. I don't know what you're trying to prove here, Ramza.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:52:05 AM | Message Detail
No, your causation is off. The characters that are up there more, draw larger vote totals and tend to get more votes, ergo, they go farther. No, it is not foolproof. There IS a correlation, however.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:53:04 AM | Message Detail
There is a correlation, but how the hell do you judge anything by it??
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/2/2005 12:53:37 AM | Message Detail
I'm guessing Zelda/Lara was a high traffic day, for whatever reason. Maybe a new game was released or something.

As for Tifa...she's not looking so hot right now, but she has plenty of time to increase her percentage. Of course, even with an underwhelming performance a la Vincent, we still don't have a bead on her true strength. Yes, if Dante and Luigi's values stay constant they're looking bad, but both Dante and Luigi had reason to increase (DMC3 for the former, overall Nintendo for the latter). We really don't know about either of them.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
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