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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 229
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:34:40 PM | Message Detail
I think it's more for Knuckles and Luigi...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:35:01 PM | Message Detail
Heh, it'll be difficult to judge where Tifa and Luigi stand...I suppose if Tifa gets a doubling or greater we could say that Luigi didn't get much increase, if any, and that Tifa's ranking through Vyse was accurate. Otherwise...

Plus, Sonic seems to be a bit of a problem, as well...I can't see him being as strong as extrapolating through Diablo suggests.

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"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:36:18 PM | Message Detail
Oh, you'll see for yourself in due time. Sonic will defeat Mega Man and give Crono a run for his money. At least, I'd like to see that happen.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:36:30 PM | Message Detail
Plus, Sonic seems to be a bit of a problem, as well...I can't see him being as strong as extrapolating through Diablo suggests.

Sonic is doing what he's expected to after Diablo's match against Kratos.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:37:06 PM | Message Detail
I know I'm old, but... Tifa and Squall are oldschool?

Luigi and Knuckles
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:37:27 PM | Message Detail
Sonic is doing what he's expected to after Diablo's match against Kratos.

...Based on what?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Starion | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:39:54 PM | Message Detail
The stats predict that Tifa needs to double Luigi in order to beat Sonic? That sounds like overkill to me. What would her chances be if she got something like 60%?
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:40:13 PM | Message Detail
...Based on what?

Lloyd (Zero)
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:40:29 PM | Message Detail
I don't consider Knuckles that old, but that could be just me.

I'm not as impressed by this match as others are. did you expect Ganon to do better? or for Sonic to barely double him? I thought 70% would be what he'd get at first until I chickened out and brought it down to 67%.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:41:57 PM | Message Detail
Don't judge Kratos solely off of Lloyd. From what we've seen, Auron is miles ahead of Tidus. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kratos a good distance ahead of Lloyd. Besides, it's not as though Diablo could've dropped that much in three months.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:42:10 PM | Message Detail
The stats predict that Tifa needs to double Luigi in order to beat Sonic? That sounds like overkill to me. What would her chances be if she got something like 60%?

Squall got 60% in 2k3 and even if Luigi gain, he would have to be stronger than Yoshi to win.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:43:36 PM | Message Detail
Don't judge Kratos solely off of Lloyd. From what we've seen, Auron is miles ahead of Tidus. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kratos a good distance ahead of Lloyd. Besides, it's not as though Diablo could've dropped that much in three months.

I'm standing by my statement of ToS characters being close to each other.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:54:52 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:56:14 PM | Message Detail
completely unrelated: should i import castlevania dos from japan?
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 9:58:28 PM | Message Detail
Besides, it's not as though Diablo could've dropped that much in three months.

To add to this, if anything, the link from diabloii.net is making him look a lil' stronger than three months ago...and Sonic is still out-doing Ganon noticably.


Check this out guys: I'm gonna use four matches from the last year to prove Samus > Sephiroth...

--Sephiroth VS Ganondorf (41.83% for Ganon)
--Diablo VS Ganondorf (34.8% for Diablo without linkage)
--Sonic VS Diablo (31.26% for Diablo with linkage)
--Sonic VS Samus (42.49% for Sonic)

...voila; Samus gets 54.39% against Sephiroth like this, and this isn't keeping in mind Samus has had a ****load of demos shipped with the DS and had a low-selling-yet-well-received MP2. Don't forget FF:AC was delayed, too. It's looking good for her, to say the least.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:06:11 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth may have dropped, too.

GO SAMUS!
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:11:01 PM | Message Detail
Dropped since the Spring Contest? Nah, not buying that one.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:14:21 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth will defeat the winner of the main bracket.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:17:40 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth will defeat the winner of the main bracket.

Sephiroth doesn't deserve to defeat anyone in the main bracket.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:19:18 PM | Message Detail
Oh man, I'm scared of Tifa... I dont' want Luigi to lose like this... I wish we could just skip this match, and say Tifa won. Results from this match will be sickening for Luigi fans like myself...

Here's to Luigi... do well today.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:19:29 PM | Message Detail
Twice as easy to prove Sephiroth > Samus

--Cloud VS Sephiroth (44.00% for Sephiroth)
--Cloud VS Samus (40.99% for Samus)

Alright, you saw that coming. Heh heh. I'm just being stupid.

Anyway, stats aside, I think that anyone who wins the main bracket will have a chance against Sephiroth. You know how you (I think, anyway) said that the Basketball analysts always talk about "momentum"? I believe in this momentum for this contest. It will give enough of a boost to make the winner take Sephiroth here.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:21:15 PM | Message Detail
Oh and uh, I really hope Samus can beat Sephiroth. I like Harrich's evidence towards it, but I wouldn't bank on it. I hope she can redeem herself from what happened in '02.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Starion | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:22:31 PM | Message Detail
I just can't see either Megaman, Crono, or Sonic taking down Sephiroth. Mario and Samus are the only ones who have a chance at defeating the silver-haired one.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:25:31 PM | Message Detail
If Sonic beats Sephiroth, my experience on GameFAQs would be complete, and I would have no reason to return. :)
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:33:48 PM | Message Detail
Twice as easy to prove Sephiroth > Samus

--Cloud VS Sephiroth (44.00% for Sephiroth)
--Cloud VS Samus (40.99% for Samus)


...****. Yeah, well...shush. =P


I like Harrich's evidence towards it, but I wouldn't bank on it.

I'm not either, but golly-gee does it look nice, heh.


If Sonic beats Sephiroth, my experience on GameFAQs would be complete, and I would have no reason to return. :)

Here I was thinkin' Sonic really ought to beat Sephiroth someday, too. Damn you.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:36:47 PM | Message Detail
Here I was thinkin' Sonic really ought to beat Sephiroth someday, too. Damn you.

What? I WANT that to happen! It would even be better than seeing Knuckles beat Magus, since I actually like Magus somewhat.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:41:07 PM | Message Detail
that looks nice? it looks like insanity to me :)

a similar example:

cloud beats link
mario beats cloud
crono beats mario

therefore: crono > mario > cloud > link.

when samus beats crono in a month, it'll all be perfect.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:44:01 PM | Message Detail
and yeah, I know your matches were in the last year. mine was a joke.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:44:58 PM | Message Detail
If Sonic beats Sephiroth, my experience on GameFAQs would be complete, and I would have no reason to return. :)

Why I wish against that, heh.


As for your example, transience, keep in mind none of my examples are even a full year old...and there's only one match from last summer's contest (which was so late in the contest it happened in the fall). Therefore, my example owns yours. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:45:43 PM | Message Detail
I guess this is my cue to feel dumb.....
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:46:25 PM | Message Detail
heh, it's all good. your example was a good one.

personally, I think Samus v. Seph is 50/50.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:49:27 PM | Message Detail
Sephy has a finals date with Link etched in stone. Unless CJayC slaps up the picture of the cos-player, nobody except Link or Cloud will be defeating him anytime soon.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 51/58 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:52:20 PM | Message Detail
I would think cos-play Sephiroth would be the equivalent of post-LoZ:TP Link.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:54:48 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth should never lose to Sonic.

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:58:23 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth should always lose to Sonic, if for no other reason than there is every reason in the world for Sephiroth to rightfully lose to Sonic.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2005 10:59:08 PM | Message Detail
Best case scenario I can find for Luigi is 44%. Can't think of anything that would put him above that.

Any calculations I would consider reasonable have Tifa getting between 58%-65%.

My Oracle pick is 62%. My risk-neutral expectations for Tifa are actually a bit higher, but everyone seems to be going conservative over there.

Best case scenario for Tifa is 70%, but she won't come close to that.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:00:25 PM | Message Detail
Cos-play Sephiroth could still beat Sonic.

And that would be the only time Sephiroth would actually get the board vote.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:00:40 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinkin' Tifa's gonna give Luigi the Squall treatment, maybe get as high as 62%...hard to tell though; I'm pretty convinced it was most/all Luigi gaining and not KOS-MOS dropping.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:02:00 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinkin' Tifa's gonna give Luigi the Squall treatment, maybe get as high as 62%...hard to tell though; I'm pretty convinced it was most/all Luigi gaining and not KOS-MOS dropping.

What's up with Ryu then?
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:08:47 PM | Message Detail
Not sure; time'll tell.

Seriously, I don't know, and won't act like I do.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:13:04 PM | Message Detail
Tifa with 70% would be insanely awesome. =p

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/5980/12mw.gif
Both knowledgeable and experienced, he can get past any tight situation without so much as breaking a sweat.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:14:10 PM | Message Detail
The reverse would be far better.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:14:12 PM | Message Detail
Luigi wins with 43% of the vote...

Yeah... that's a winning performance all things considered.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: Chinballz | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:18:04 PM | Message Detail
Since we all know Luigi will get the board vote, how long do you think he'll lead?
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Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:18:11 PM | Message Detail
I would love to watch Luigi get 60% on Tifa just to see the same response as Squall, only the other way around. that would be a sight to behold.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:18:46 PM | Message Detail
The reverse would be far better.

Tifa with -70%, you mean? Yeah, it'd kick ass to see Luigi win with 170% of the vote.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:20:36 PM | Message Detail
Since we all know Luigi will get the board vote, how long do you think he'll lead?

One minute.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:21:02 PM | Message Detail
The winner of the main bracket will have a good shot at ousting Sephiroth, especially if it's either of the Nintendo reps.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:21:41 PM | Message Detail
I've been pretty split on who to vote for, but I've gotta give Luigi the edge here. He's the under-dog and I've known him as long as I've known video games, heh. I'm real cool with Tifa and Luigi both, but Luigi winnin' would be just a liiiiittle be cooler, heh
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 11:31:01 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Luigi will completely fold to anyone. I think Tifa won't beat him much worse than Squall did, and I wouldn't be surprised if Luigi kept it closer, with the way that the voter pool has shifted since 2k3.

As for Ryu, there is no explanation needed. He ran into the brick wall known as BOWSER! Ryu may have been content with his solid showings against Samus, Snake, and Sonic but Bowser showed him that he can't be content and that he still needs to train and improve himself. =P
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
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