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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 229
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:37:52 PM | Message Detail
How did they find out that he died?

Ceej made an announcement just for him.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:38:36 PM | Message Detail
i have no idea but his death made the frontpage complete with donations to unicef
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Phediuk | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:43:14 PM | Message Detail
I'd say Vincent has done pretty damn well for himself considering he's the least-known playable character in FFVII-though, being the least known playable character in FFVII still makes you more famous than 99% of every other character in existence.

I didn't even know Vincent existed until I had beaten the game twice, for God's sake.

Tifa is way more well-known and is far, far more prominent in FFVII than Vincent. She'll without a doubt be stronger, but the question is, by how much?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:43:44 PM | Message Detail
And MM's later games should completely separate his appeal from Link's, allowing him to avoid/minimize any SFF.

And what does that have to do with his fans established during his Nintendo days?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:46:25 PM | Message Detail
Refering to the qusetion about perfect I believe Tomoko (sp?) had a perfect in the summer 2k4 contset until cloud beat sephiroth (he had sephy going all the way)
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:47:03 PM | Message Detail
Tomoyo, she.
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To settle my score with you, I came dancing all the way up from the fires of hell.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:48:52 PM | Message Detail
Shake died

>_>
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:48:55 PM | Message Detail
now this may sound wierd but has a board 8 member ever died?

Shake. Ahem.....
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:50:11 PM | Message Detail
DAMN YOU CHARMANDER!!!
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: ps2rulezzz | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:50:19 PM | Message Detail
are you guys sure about shake?
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190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:50:27 PM | Message Detail
I haven't read the sff arguments for Megaman/Link over extensively, because frankly I think the idea is absurd. And one point that hasn't been made recently enough is that Link/Yoshi is a nintendo/nintendo match. It just seems that people weren't saying that enough. Yes, the Yoshi/Link games are different, but at least they're from the same company.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:51:35 PM | Message Detail
DAMN YOU CHARMANDER!!!

Me Winner!
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:54:48 PM | Message Detail
Positive; he died around November, I think.....
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2005 2:57:04 PM | Message Detail
Some people seem to have a psychological barrier about Mega Man vs. Link SFF.

And yes, that post by Kaxon was very good.

Right now though the evidence is up in the air. Nothing conclusive yet. But when it comes time to act, I doubt that people will act based on Mega Man really being as weak as his unadjusted value has him.

However, during these discussions, why do people neglect to bring up the pics? The pics for that match were weird and it is hardly a stretch to think they could contribute to some anomalous performance.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:02:46 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and color me surprised that Sonic didn't break 70% with the day vote after all.

Sonic was never the day vote king, but he did seem to have a better record than Diablo. Both had solid records but Sonic's seemed better. Now it seems they're pretty even.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:02:59 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man's pic was better, and he still underperformed.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:04:29 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man's pic was better, and he still underperformed.

Mega Man was owned in the Link-pic, and his picture sucked in the Mega-pic.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:05:43 PM | Message Detail
yeah, I never liked that Mega/Link picture. compare it to his Snake picture (where Mega Man killed him, by the way) and it's not even close.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:07:05 PM | Message Detail
And what does that have to do with his fans established during his Nintendo days?

They'll either start to hate him, or like him more.

Either way, they'll start to think differently about MM wrt Nintendo powerhouses like Link.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:07:46 PM | Message Detail
Aww, I personally liked Mega Man's pic better..really. =P
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:11:42 PM | Message Detail
Right now though the evidence is up in the air. Nothing conclusive yet. But when it comes time to act, I doubt that people will act based on Mega Man really being as weak as his unadjusted value has him.

I'd put Mario above him for sure.

Sonic is still too close to him in his un-adjusted value so I decided to side with him.

Btw, other than SFF, MM could've simply underperformed against Link.

I'd say he's actually 0.5%-1.5% stronger than his un-adjusted value, but certainly not nearly as strong as where his adjusted value put him.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:23:03 PM | Message Detail
However, during these discussions, why do people neglect to bring up the pics? The pics for that match were weird and it is hardly a stretch to think they could contribute to some anomalous performance.

I'm not a fan of "character beating down the other character" pics no matter how they are applied. It just seems to put subliminal bias into the minds of those who vote.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:44:58 PM | Message Detail
Right, but the pics are split 50/50; it's meant to pursuade half the audience one way, and the other half the other way. It's totally random which half gets what, too, so it's MEANT to affect each side evenly, no matter who they're votin' for.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:45:19 PM | Message Detail
Bleh, if voters can't make up their own minds, then maybe they deserved to be influenced.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:46:46 PM | Message Detail
Yeah... umm... "Oh, my favotire character is getting beaten, guess I'll vote for a character I hate"...

I'm not giving a whole lot of backing to the idea that the pics are going to affect much.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:46:53 PM | Message Detail
I should also note that I got the Advantage-Link pic first in Link/Mega, yet I still voted for the Blue Bomber; I'll agree that it can have an affect on people, but many people aren't gonna be swayed, too. As for how many number got swayed and if it was more lop-sided than we think, we don't know.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:47:15 PM | Message Detail
And MM's later games should completely separate his appeal from Link's, allowing him to avoid/minimize any SFF.


Yeah, just like Yoshi's earlier games would prevent SSB/M SFF. Mega Man's match against Link was either a random underperformance, or SFF. Take your pick.

I'd say he's actually 0.5%-1.5% stronger than his un-adjusted value, but certainly not nearly as strong as where his adjusted value put him.


Even after his match against Conker? That put him much closer to adjusted than unadjusted, even after Conker had a game that introduced him to an entirely new fanbase...something we haven't seen since KH.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:52:24 PM | Message Detail
I agree with ya Mac, but I'm gonna play devil's advocate for a sec: you could argue that KH introduced more fans than C:L&R since it was a different series from FF, whereas C:L&R came from CBFD. You can then argue goin' from the N64 to the Xbox introduces more fans than goin' from the PSX to the PS2, but KH outsold CBFD and C:L&R combined with ease.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: cyko | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:58:06 PM | Message Detail
i would like to point out two things:

1) if by some miracle there was a Mario vs. Sonic final, Mario would easily win. not nearly as massively as SMW vs. Sonic 2, but i doubt he would have any trouble. funny thing is, i have about 3 friends who had a Mario/Sonic final back in 2K2. =P

2) even though the Elite Eight is completely up in the air at this part and will probably be pretty awesome, this next week is going to be very boring after Tifa/Luigi:

Megaman vs. Leon Kennedy
Yoshi vs. Pac-Man
Mario vs. Zero
Samus vs. Ganondorf
Solid Snake vs. Sora
Bowser vs. Kirby
Master Cheif vs. Crono

none of next week's are even slightly in question (except maybe Sora as a major longshot). *yawn*

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:58:20 PM | Message Detail
I get home from work to see Sonic lose over half a percent? Jesus, how the mighty have fallen. Tifa will need at least 60% for me to think she has a shot at Sonic, but I think he is done for against Mega Man.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 51/58 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:00:13 PM | Message Detail
Half a percent and we go from predicting Sonic over Crono to losing to Mega Man all over again? o.O
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: cyko | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:00:53 PM | Message Detail
I agree with ya Mac, but I'm gonna play devil's advocate for a sec: you could argue that KH introduced more fans than C:L&R since it was a different series from FF, whereas C:L&R came from CBFD. You can then argue goin' from the N64 to the Xbox introduces more fans than goin' from the PSX to the PS2, but KH outsold CBFD and C:L&R combined with ease.

TOO MANY ABBREVIATIONS!!!

*head explodes*

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:01:29 PM | Message Detail
The only time in this contest where I've doubted Mega Man > Sonic > Tifa was after Tifa demolished Vyse, but once Vincent fell short of my expectations against Dante, I regained confidence in Sonic, and this only strengthens that.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:02:13 PM | Message Detail
I don't see why Diablo gaining a little percent back in the day is bad for Sonic. I'm honestly amazed he's managed to keep his lead at 69% for so long.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:03:11 PM | Message Detail
I agree with ya Mac, but I'm gonna play devil's advocate for a sec: you could argue that KH introduced more fans than C:L&R since it was a different series from FF, whereas C:L&R came from CBFD. You can then argue goin' from the N64 to the Xbox introduces more fans than goin' from the PSX to the PS2, but KH outsold CBFD and C:L&R combined with ease.


Yeah...but CL&R only has to put Conker up a percent or two to make adjusted MM correct. It's no KH, but then CBFD was no FFVII...it's not that hard to increase when you start out as fodder.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:06:35 PM | Message Detail
I agree with ya Mac, but I'm gonna play devil's advocate for a sec: you could argue that Kingdom Hearts introduced more fans than Conker: Live and Reloaded since it was a different series from Final Fantasy, whereas Conker: Live and Reloaded came from Conker's Bad Fur Day. You can then argue goin' from the Nintendo 64 to the Xbox introduces more fans than goin' from the orginal Playstation to the Playstation 2, but Kingdom Hearts outsold Conker's Bad Fur Day and Conker: Live and Reloaded combined with ease.

Cyko-fixed. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:15:44 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, just like Yoshi's earlier games would prevent SSB/M SFF. Mega Man's match against Link was either a random underperformance, or SFF. Take your pick.

I'd take random underperformance (or overperformance by Link) ANY DAY.

We've seen it with Magus, Frog and Vivi; even MM/Snake could be an example for that.

Even after his match against Conker? That put him much closer to adjusted than unadjusted, even after Conker had a game that introduced him to an entirely new fanbase...something we haven't seen since KH.

If KOS-MOS can drop like a rock AFTER XS2, what would prevent Conker from doing the same?

If Snake can drop like a rock AFTER MGS:TS, what would prevent Conker from doing the same?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:22:23 PM | Message Detail
I'd take random underperformance (or overperformance by Link) ANY DAY.

There has to be a REASON for a 5% underperformance. You don't just randomly fluctuate by 5% and then perform like you are supposed to against the same character. There has to be a reason behind all of that.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:23:56 PM | Message Detail
There has to be a REASON for a 5% underperformance. You don't just randomly fluctuate by 5% and then perform like you are supposed to against the same character. There has to be a reason behind all of that.


Ok whats the explanation for magus overperforing by what 8,9,10%? Or frog overperforming around the same amount against snake?
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: cyko | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:25:00 PM | Message Detail
I agree with ya Mac, but I'm gonna play devil's advocate for a sec: you could argue that Kingdom Hearts introduced more fans than Conker: Live and Reloaded since it was a different series from Final Fantasy, whereas Conker: Live and Reloaded came from Conker's Bad Fur Day. You can then argue goin' from the Nintendo 64 to the Xbox introduces more fans than goin' from the orginal Playstation to the Playstation 2, but Kingdom Hearts outsold Conker's Bad Fur Day and Conker: Live and Reloaded combined with ease.

Cyko-fixed. =P


ah, much better. ^_^

and imo, Conker: Live and Reloaded definitely introduced Conker to a whole new audience, but whether or not that new audience liked Conker is a different question. anyone got sales numbers on both Conker games? i agree that it's got nothing on KH's sales, but i'm still curious.


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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:27:00 PM | Message Detail
Conker's Bad Fur Day sold around 95,000 copies on the N64.

Live and Reloaded for XBox sold around 150,147 copies in the month of June.

...Conker has every reason to increase.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:27:06 PM | Message Detail
To my understanding, CBFD sold 400,000 and C:L&R was at 200,000 as of last month...that's goin' by memory though, and I don't know if that's just America or world-wide.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:28:11 PM | Message Detail
...am I THAT wrong? We need somebody to clarify this. Heroic Maaaaaaaaaaaarioooooooooooooo.....
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:28:24 PM | Message Detail
Conker sold way more than 95k.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:29:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, that's just the figures that I have offhand, though I have no idea how dated they are.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:30:12 PM | Message Detail
that makes me think, if one were to summon Heroic Mario what 5 elements would they use?

Anyway, see you all sometime after the %s in the next match have stabalized.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:31:26 PM | Message Detail
Match 46: (3) Tifa Lockheart vs. (2) Luigi Mario

Past Performances

Tifa Lockheart


Summer 2005
Beat Vyse, 78.07% - 21.93%

Win - Lose Record
1-0

Luigi Mario

Summer 2005
Beat KOS-MOS, 66.00% - 34.00%

Win - Lose Record
3-2

Analysis

Tifa is the favorite going into the match tomorrow, but Luigi does have a small outside chance on winning tomorrow. For Tifa become the favorite going into against Sonic, she would have to at least double Luigi.

Tifa had a great first performance last round beating Vyse more than what Samus would beat him by. After round 1 Tifa looks like to be a serious character to take the win, but if anybody saw Samus and Mega Man’s performance during the early rounds both of them showed to be the favorite to take the contest, but in the end they were far from close to win. Luigi also had a great performance against KOS-MOS, putting him at around Sonic’s level, but as the contest went on Ryu’s performance against Bowser wasn’t really that good which could be why KOS-MOS did so bad, but even if you use 2k3 Bowser, Luigi would still rank at around Kirby’s numbers so like Tifa Luigi too might’ve overperformed (but if you ask me this is where he should rank around).

Could Tifa rank up with the likes of Clinkeroth? Well both Cloud and Sephiroth are apart of it so it could be possible, but I’m more incline to say that she’ll rank closer to Aeris than Cloud/Sephiroth. Tomorrow’s match should give us some answers to where she could rank.

Could Luigi be apart of what the board calls an all Nintendo boost? Well doing a few percents better than Ryu is fairly good and we really don’t have good numbers for Luigi since the both years he’s been here he’s been SFF. I still think Luigi is stronger than what the numbers show, but where could he rank? Here’s a few numbers using 2k4 Link...

Samus’ 8-pack Luigi/KOS-MOS - 24.5%
If KOS-MOS = 2k4 - 32.5%
KOS-MOS with Ryu drop - 26%
Pac-Man - 29.5%

So Luigi is pretty much all over the board. We couldn’t use Squall since he to be against a lot of SFF. For all we know Luigi’s performance could’ve been because he overperformed.

This match is all over the map, we can have Luigi winning by 55% or Tifa winning by 75%, but I don’t really see either character getting close to either of these numbers, which doesn’t give Luigi a lot of breathing room. Expect the unexpected tomorrow; hopefully Luigi can crack 40% (Old school 4 life).

charmander6000’s Bracket: Tifa Lockheart over Luigi Mario

charmander6000’s Prediction: Tifa wins, 59.36% - 40.64%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:31:37 PM | Message Detail
Meh, I was way off. MSNBC pegs the sales figures at around 340,000. I was going off a dated IGN report.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:32:26 PM | Message Detail
CLOUD!
SAMUS!
MEGA MAN!
KRATOS!
LAVOS!

"...psss, no Mario?"

*Heroic Mario appears and squashes the poor soul who said such a thing*
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/1/2005 4:35:02 PM | Message Detail
Poor Mario, he still has me.
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