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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 228
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:48:59 PM | Message Detail
At the very least Vincent was up against someone untested during round 1. I could very well see Tifa in the Final 4 based on her role and presence in the game compared to that of Vincent and Aeris.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Garsha | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:49:40 PM | Message Detail
Don't blame DK at all. Master Chief is the king of the day vote.
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Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579546
End of message. ~ Garsha
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:50:52 PM | Message Detail
Frog and DK have both been proven to suck with the day vote, big time. Samus absolutely obliterated Frog with it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:51:49 PM | Message Detail
I've played a lot of early LoZ games, and some MM games as well, they're fundamentally different.

So do Mario and Metroid. Didn't prevent SMB3 from quadrupling Metroid now, right?

You don't get my point. At all. Most of the arguments against the adjustment come from Frog's 4-pack, as well as Vercetti who had plenty of reason to drop himself (underperformance against Kefka, who was in 20XX too, and then against Crono, hello?). The rest? Megaman almost did what his adjusted value predicted AFTER Conker got his new game, and Snake looks like he's back to his former glory.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:52:18 PM | Message Detail
I want to see Alucard/Knuckles, to see Alucard take a 5000-vote lead during the night and Knuckles eat it completely after that.

Alucard/MC would be better, as MC will totally suck it up until links start getting posted on Halo sites.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:53:19 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man was pretty much in between both values against Conker. Knuckles's performance yesterday would indicate the adjustment needed to be made.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:54:46 PM | Message Detail
Indeed. Squall didn't ram Knuckles into the ground like he was "supposed" to. If I'm not mistaken, even the adjusted value was way off.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:55:32 PM | Message Detail
Sonic down about .2% since I left. =(

And Squall had a pretty decent percentage...all I have to say.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Diablo - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (48/56)
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:56:40 PM | Message Detail
Fisher is strongest in the day, and DK was at an obscenely high %. Vivi isn't exactly a slouch with the day vote. He only lost about 1% to Zelda.

Plus, looking at the poll updates, I wouldn't really say DK lost the day vote to Vivi either. He actually did gain with it real early then lost a little later on. They about broke even.

I doubt DK is as bad with the day as you guys think.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:56:45 PM | Message Detail
Well, Squall underperformed against Kirby and Bomberman last year, which means he may have taken a slight drop.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:57:21 PM | Message Detail
So do Mario and Metroid. Didn't prevent SMB3 from quadrupling Metroid now, right?

You don't get my point. At all. Most of the arguments against the adjustment come from Frog's 4-pack, as well as Vercetti who had plenty of reason to drop himself (underperformance against Kefka, who was in 20XX too, and then against Crono, hello?). The rest? Megaman almost did what his adjusted value predicted AFTER Conker got his new game, and Snake looks like he's back to his former glory.


Games =/= chars, how many times do you need to hear that before it sinks into your brain?

Btw, ask Tidus whether he should be adjusted or not.
If you adjust him, Kirby's jump became out of this world.

Btw, KOS-MOS managed to underperform by leaps and bounds AFTER getting a sequel.
Holding her constant put Luigi near Mario's level, MARIO!

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:58:36 PM | Message Detail
Well, Squall underperformed against Kirby and Bomberman last year, which means he may have taken a slight drop.

Meh, even holding Kirby to his 2003 value, Squall should've still gotten in the high 54% range. He was pretty close to even with Knux. After seeing Sonic today, I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase for Knux.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:59:52 PM | Message Detail
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/1/2005 3:56:45 PM | #410
Well, Squall underperformed against Kirby and Bomberman last year, which means he may have taken a slight drop.

He did as expected on Kirby, IIRC. Bomberman is a weird one, because he did almost the same as Kirby on Jill, but he was way behind against Alucard.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:00:27 PM | Message Detail
Meh, even holding Kirby to his 2003 value, Squall should've still gotten in the high 54% range. He was pretty close to even with Knux. After seeing Sonic today, I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase for Knux.

Sonic is being weird so far, after completely dropping the ball against Jin, he make up for it by plastering Diablo.

I really have no idea where he really stands.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:01:12 PM | Message Detail
Don't base Sonic off of Jin, an unknown. It'd be more reliable to judge him off somebody we saw less than 3 months ago.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:03:04 PM | Message Detail
I'm going to ask this again after seeing how Diablo works in a real contest environment... should Diablo 2 make the next game contest, if there's one, what's it going to do, you think?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:03:51 PM | Message Detail
I would guess Diablo 2 to be just a bit weaker then Starcraft.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Starion | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:04:36 PM | Message Detail
Yeah

Diablo2 < Starcraft < WoW in a game contest.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:05:12 PM | Message Detail
It'd be between Half-Life and Starcraft, I would think.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:05:51 PM | Message Detail
WoW > Starcraft? Not buyin' it.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:05:54 PM | Message Detail
I could see D2 being a force. If people care that much about the villain, I'd think they'd care about the game itself even more. I could see it being at Starcraft's level, for sure.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:07:15 PM | Message Detail
Don't base Sonic off of Jin, an unknown. It'd be more reliable to judge him off somebody we saw less than 3 months ago.

We know how much respect fighting game chars get in GameFAQs, Jin can't be anything more than fodder.

Diablo relied on links to get more votes, so he's not that much more reliable either.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Starion | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:07:46 PM | Message Detail
Why not Harrich?
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:08:07 PM | Message Detail
WoW > Starcraft? Not buyin' it.

Pfft. As hot as WoW is right now? One link to the WoW boards and its over for the competition.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:08:24 PM | Message Detail
We know how much respect fighting game chars get in GameFAQs, Jin can't be anything more than fodder.

And unless Sonic jumped up to the level of Sephiroth, Jin IS fodder. There's nothing wrong with believing he can be high fodder, personally.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:09:12 PM | Message Detail
We know how much respect fighting game chars get in GameFAQs

Ryu has consistently been one of the contest's top performers.

Jin can't be anything more than fodder.

Evidently, you're wrong.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:09:17 PM | Message Detail
Diablo relied on links to get more votes, so he's not that much more reliable either.

Diablo didn't get any links in his match against Ganondorf. Unless you believe that Ganon overperformed against Sephiroth in Spring, Diablo is placed where he should be.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:11:06 PM | Message Detail
We know how much respect fighting game chars get in GameFAQs, Jin can't be anything more than fodder.

Eh? Ryu is pretty strong here, and Scorpion's upper end fodder. I don't see why Jin can't be at Scorpion's level (though I'm not sure how much more popular MK is than Tekken, or if it even is more popular at all).
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:11:44 PM | Message Detail
Scorpion isn't actually fodder though. He's a low midcarder.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:12:47 PM | Message Detail
And unless Sonic jumped up to the level of Sephiroth, Jin IS fodder. There's nothing wrong with believing he can be high fodder, personally.

Sorry, by fodder I mean mid to low fodder.

Tekken is rarely ever a hot item even among the fighting genre, so I find it hard to believe that Jin could be stronger than say, Terry.

But, lets see if Sonic can hold on to the doubling at the end of the day.

He's falling rather fast now, and it's not even evening yet.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:13:44 PM | Message Detail
Tekken is a very popular fighting game among casuals. I could quite easily see Jin being stronger than Terry especially with the voting increase.
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:14:16 PM | Message Detail
morning, dudes. quick thoughts:

- a mario/sonic final would be beautiful, topped only by mario/crono 4. even then, it's close. I could see Sonic winning.

- if Knuckles did indeed increase, it makes sense Sonic would as well. it's possible that Nintendo isn't the only company that got a boost. too bad there's no Shadow.

- Diablo 2 would do very well in the game contest. I'll put it around Mario World's level, maybe as high as FF10. I'm trying to avoid the obvious Starcraft comparisons. I don't think WOW would do as well, simply because there are a lot of people who just hate mmo's and not as many people have played it as have Starcraft or D2. if it was spammed all over the WOW servers, though? who knows.

- Kratos could beat Lloyd 57/43, but I don't think he would indirectly. they should be pretty close, which leads me to believe that Diablo is a bit overrated. the strongest character he beat was Kefka or M. Bison, after all.

- lastly, when I was a kid I thought Mega Man was made by Nintendo. it is synonymous with Nintendo in my mind, and Link/MM SFF makes sense to me. I don't see why SFF has to be limited to companies. why not call it Same Company Factor then?
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:14:28 PM | Message Detail
Tekken is rarely ever a hot item even among the fighting genre, so I find it hard to believe that Jin could be stronger than say, Terry.

Considering Sonic quadrupled Terry with ease last year, you'd be wrong.

And Tekken not hot among the fighting genre? Are you crazy?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:14:39 PM | Message Detail
As I said, I do NOT buy Link/MM SFF.
I've played a lot of early LoZ games, and some MM games as well, they're fundamentally different.


It doesn't matter if the games are fundamentally different. It's not like Yoshi's games are the same as Link's. All that matters is whether the same people like both games. When they're from the same time period and same system, that's going to be the case. Especially when it's Link, since everyone who was playing that console at that time played his games.

Crono's game is on a Nintendo console as well, are you going to say that Link SFF him too?

They do have fanbase overlap, but that doesn't mean the fans prefer Link by a larger ratio than stats would project. Fanbase overlap is only one half of SFF. Their fanbase overlap is also smaller than Link/MM's for several reasons. CT wasn't on the NES, but came out when genres were more developed and had more distinct fanbases. CT came out three years after Link's only SNES game, instead of concurrently. CT was played by many people on their computers or Playstations, and not on the SNES.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:16:07 PM | Message Detail
Ryu has consistently been one of the contest's top performers.

He's the exception, but even Ryu did really badly this contest.

Evidently, you're wrong.

Just look at Kazuya in 2k2 before you say I'm wrong.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:17:05 PM | Message Detail
Just look at Kazuya in 2k2 before you say I'm wrong.

Jin =/= Kazuya

There is absolutely nothing wrong with thinking Jin is a good way ahead of Kazuya.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:17:46 PM | Message Detail
Yoshimitsu and Sub-Zero for 2k6!!
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:17:53 PM | Message Detail
You're asking me to look at KAZUYA, a completely different character, from a contest three years ago, that preceded the release of Tekken 4 AND 5.

And you think that makes sense?
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:18:42 PM | Message Detail
Yar, there's no way Ryu is stronger than Ken. That makes no sense!
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To settle my score with you, I came dancing all the way up from the fires of hell.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:18:54 PM | Message Detail
Link did SFF Megaman to some degree. Whether you wnat to admit it or not, their fanbases do overlap, and nearly everything up to this point says that the adjusment for Megaman was needed. Except Frog/MC/DK, and that can be easily explained by Frog overperforming against Solid Snake.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:18:56 PM | Message Detail
Considering Sonic quadrupled Terry with ease last year, you'd be wrong.

Probably, but I still find it hard to believe.

And Tekken not hot among the fighting genre? Are you crazy?

* Looks at a local arcade *

Nope, they're the least played arcade machines.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:20:07 PM | Message Detail
Yes because DDR did so well in the Spring Contest...
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:20:15 PM | Message Detail
Probably, but I still find it hard to believe.

It doesn't really matter if you believe it or not.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: Starion | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:20:34 PM | Message Detail
I don't think arcades are a good barometer for fighting games popularity over here. I actually kind of doubt it's a good measuring stick for popularity in general.
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:22:27 PM | Message Detail
You're asking me to look at KAZUYA, a completely different character, from a contest three years ago, that preceded the release of Tekken 4 AND 5.

And you think that makes sense?


You don't get it, do you?

Kazuya was the "main char" of the Tekken series back then, Jin is his current replacement.

And you really think Tekken 4 and 5 would increase the Tekken series' popularity as a whole?

I certainly won't buy that.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:23:46 PM | Message Detail
Yes because DDR did so well in the Spring Contest...

Ulti clearly votestuffed for FFT. DDR would've quadrupled it otherwise.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:23:49 PM | Message Detail
Except nobody really liked Kazuya in the first place. You can refuse to buy it all you want, but unless Sonic took a huge drop, Jin is MUCH stronger than Kazuya.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (2) Squall 53310 (53.80%), (6) Knuckles 45780 (46.20%)
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:23:56 PM | Message Detail
ink did SFF Megaman to some degree. Whether you wnat to admit it or not, their fanbases do overlap, and nearly everything up to this point says that the adjusment for Megaman was needed. Except Frog/MC/DK, and that can be easily explained by Frog overperforming against Solid Snake.

Tidus and Vercetti would like to have a word with you.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:24:42 PM | Message Detail
The fact that Jin is preferred over Kazuya in high ratios in every Tekken characterpoll ever, the fact that he's a much more liked main character is enough. GameFAQs likely has no reason to be different.

Besides, a lot of Tekken's popularity wouldn't have exploded until Tekken 3, the most critically acclaimed game of the series. Tekken 2 was good, but 3 really put it on the map.
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To settle my score with you, I came dancing all the way up from the fires of hell.
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:24:42 PM | Message Detail
Tekken 4 nearly killed the entire series, I douth that it would give Tekken characters any boost. And if someone brings up the if Dante can get a boost from DMC2 anybody can! crap, look what XS2 did for KOS MOS and what CFE did for Ryu and Chun Li.
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