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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 228
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:13:24 AM | Message Detail
I regret two picks.

Tidus over Kirby and Alucard over Sora.

Had I been consistent with my "the Magus/Ganon/Tidus trio is overrated, always has been" theory, I'd not have lost those points. And I have a wide variety of picks to regret.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:13:28 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
52-----2--------50.0000000
51-----25-------32.0000000
50-----66-------28.7878788
49-----223------20.1793722
48-----420------32.8571429
47-----749------34.0453939
46-----1077-----35.8402971
45-----1396-----37.6790831
44-----1793-----41.0485220
43-----2102-----43.1969553
42-----2296-----43.7282230
41-----2346-----42.1994885
40-----2398-----42.5771476
39-----2356-----45.5008489
38-----2218-----43.1018936
37-----2121-----46.1103253
36-----1895-----44.5910290
35-----1631-----45.2483139
34-----1430-----47.6923077
33-----1196-----47.4080268
32-----1113-----44.5642408
31-----929------46.3939720
30-----811------52.1578298
29-----659------51.1380880
28-----522------54.2145594
27-----419------57.0405728
26-----338------57.6923077
25-----274------56.5693431
24-----206------60.1941748
23-----148------48.6486486
22-----110------57.2727273
21-----85-------58.8235294
20-----63-------63.4920635
19-----49-------53.0612245
18-----34-------61.7647059
17-----19-------68.4210526
16-----12-------58.3333333
15-----9--------66.6666667
14-----4--------25.0000000
13-----2--------50.0000000
12-----4--------25.0000000
11-----4--------0.0000000
10-----8--------12.5000000
9------7--------0.0000000
8------24-------4.1666667
7------28-------3.5714286

Everybody with a score of 6 or lower got the match wrong.

The higher the score, the worse they did. Just when the "smart" competitors started floating to the top of the list again, having Magus going deep strikes a lot of them back down.

25 people fell off the Top 50 today. treiliae, PerfectDemon, Cyrlous, xIcemanx_basic, SlickMario, somdude04, CATS_will_win, Loony_Bin, AngerFork, GoldenShoe, LockieKnight, nezumisezu, potatoesaretube, ZeroFlare, SSuper__Nuke, GenmaNinja454, darkone_420, LUEser1337, Skynard_RIP, ZeroX123, stormeagle6, fisher6, johlmri, Ikzai and 3rdrocket did not have Squall winning the match.

These seven people didn't have Squall winning but still rank high enough to be on the Top 50: JohnDeere04, Alanna82, EvenFlow4, MysticPlatypus, Kenoxe, MHSWrestler and ChichiriMuyo.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:13:32 AM | Message Detail
had I taken Squall, I would have been cheering to see Magus go down, point or no point. Magus was more of a threat to beat Squall than Knuckles was, overrated or not.

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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:14:03 AM | Message Detail
Same. It's Ganon's fault, really. May he burn in hell.

Here too, and I would also have had Tidus losing to Kirby, Alucard losing to Sora and Auron beating Ganondorf, but I'd would've still have Magus > Knux.

*shoots Villains contest*

You've cost me 8 points!!!
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:14:52 AM | Message Detail
I'm still beaming on the inside from my not falling off. Feels good, even if I lost 2 points.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:16:09 AM | Message Detail
man, another second place Oracle pick. I will never, ever, ever get first on one of those things.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:18:46 AM | Message Detail
Well, I was number 10 on the leaderboard the day after Sora beat Ryu H.

ZOMG Jill > Sora!! >_>;;
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:21:12 AM | Message Detail
Well, I was number 10 on the leaderboard the day after Sora beat Ryu H.

I was number 5 on the leaderboard the day before Sora beat HK-47...and I was on it again the day before Sora beat Ryu H...I really hate Sora.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:22:47 AM | Message Detail
And with regards to the current match, Tifa stands no chance against Sonic remains above Ganon. I would never take Tifa over Ganon...at least not unless there was a match in between AC and TP, which would be iffy.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:25:36 AM | Message Detail
I was number 5 on the leaderboard the day before Sora beat HK-47...and I was on it again the day before Sora beat Ryu H...I really hate Sora.

I AM on the leaderboard at the end of the contest... although I just missed out on a prize. Stupid tiebreaker. ;_; Nah, nothing to brag about though. That contest was pathetically easy...

I'm still in good shape in this contest, as I can see the combination of Bowser beating Snake, Samus beating Mario, and Vincent beating Squall knocking away a lot of the brackets above me. Here's for hoping...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:32:43 AM | Message Detail
so ganondorf although he is strong doesn't quite have what it takes to beat a noble niner right?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:33:12 AM | Message Detail
"I would never take Tifa over Ganon..."

What does that have to do with her chances against Sonic? Just because you'd never make the correct pick doesn't mean she can't win.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:34:15 AM | Message Detail
Zero, Ganondorf, and Bowser would definitely give Snake a run for his money...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:35:24 AM | Message Detail
"so ganondorf although he is strong doesn't quite have what it takes to beat a noble niner right?"

Depends. If Auron is static from 2k4 (meaning no SFF with Sephiroth) then ganon only takes 32% on 2k3 Link, short of what any Noble Niner should be expected to get (though awfully close). He might, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:37:36 AM | Message Detail
I cna almost guarentee you Snake is up since 2k4. Can't say how much, but it may be a return to form for him. Even if not, I'd call him at least 34% on BL... which is why I'm hoping at least 35% on BL for Bowser.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:38:12 AM | Message Detail
I kind of doubt there was no SFF, but I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't alot of it. And yeah, if Sonic keeps this up the only member of the noble nine we'd have to worry about is Solid Snake.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:38:41 AM | Message Detail
thing is can anyone really see ganondorf beating snake ? i'd imagine he could get up to 48/9% but above 50%? i can't quite see it
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:39:57 AM | Message Detail
most people that would take Bowser over Snake would take Ganon over Snake, I'd think.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:40:01 AM | Message Detail
I can see Bowser > SS so begrudgingly I say yes.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:41:38 AM | Message Detail
Honestly? I'm beginning to have the same attitude towards the Noble Nine that I have towards the Atlanta Braves winning the NL East: I won't really believe someone can beat them till I see it.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:43:57 AM | Message Detail
The Noble Nine have certainly made a statement this round. Crono no longer looks like he's in much danger of losing to Vincent, and Sonic's looking good right now. Snake's still got plenty to worry about, but at least he made it past Zelda, which was far from a certainty at the beginning of the round. These guys are elite for a reason - it's hard to reach that level of popularity.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:45:29 AM | Message Detail
While I had a suspicion that Sonic would overperform expectations in this match, I'm still surprised that he's looking poised to clear 70% on Diablo with ease, after getting 76% on Jin.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:45:35 AM | Message Detail
the noble nine has time and time again been under constant threat but in an amazing four years have never been beaten. what's their current record so far? and i'd rather see zero/ganondorf than snake/bowser
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:47:12 AM | Message Detail
Bowser/Snake is extremely iffy right now, but I sure hope Bowser wins. Bowser's the man.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:48:37 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, and Bowser winning makes for few people in the way of my prizes.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:51:08 AM | Message Detail
i wonder how long our leader will stay at the top.
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:53:49 AM | Message Detail
While I had a suspicion that Sonic would overperform expectations in this match, I'm still surprised that he's looking poised to clear 70% on Diablo with ease, after getting 76% on Jin.

I felt exactly the same way. No matter what the stats said, I couldn't imagine Sonic failing to do better than Ganon did. But the 76% against Jin looked really weak, and prevented me from going above 66%.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:54:14 AM | Message Detail
actually, I could see Bowser > Snake being a trendy upset pick, just because of the villain contest.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:55:53 AM | Message Detail
is it possible that the reason why sonic only got 76% on jin is because jin is upper fodder instead of total ****?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/1/2005 12:57:04 AM | Message Detail
Over Solid Snake, though? I don't know, I mean, he's one of those characters that is always overrated, he's part of the reason that pred%'s haven't ever been great for MM in later rounds, really. He should take a failry high %, even compared to what Bowser should take.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:00:03 AM | Message Detail
don't get me wrong, Snake's the favourite. but I'd think Bowser will have the highest prediction percentage for the division. I could see 20% taking Bowser over Snake.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:02:58 AM | Message Detail
if bowser has a higher prediction percentage than snake then the spring contest must have turned quite a few people's head round
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:03:39 AM | Message Detail
is it possible that the reason why sonic only got 76% on jin is because jin is upper fodder instead of total ****?

That's probably the case, it's just surprising to some of us that he's apparently so far ahead of Kazuya. When no one from his series has been seen since 2002, and that guy was fodder, you don't expect much.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:03:44 AM | Message Detail
I think today's match will let us know about the villain contest. if Sonic doesn't have overwhelming support vs. Diablo, we'll know something's up.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: voltch | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:05:43 AM | Message Detail
by the way is bnet linking? or are all diablo friendly sites not linking?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: transience | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:06:44 AM | Message Detail
I looked and didn't see anything. I think they got bored after the villain contest.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:19:50 AM | Message Detail
id be willing to bet linking and bnet spamming starts in the afternoon. wont make a lick of difference though.
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:34:03 AM | Message Detail
I mean, he's one of those characters that is always overrated

Eh, he had less than 70% to take his entire four pack last year, and that was mostly because of Kefka, I would imagine. I could see a large chunk of people taking Bowser to win.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:39:25 AM | Message Detail
On the topic of the noble nine and those who are in a position to get into it...

Snake > Sonic > Ganon > Zelda = Bowser > Aeris > Tifa = Vincent.

In 2k5, of course.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:40:12 AM | Message Detail
And Sonic is impressing me here in the early goings. The day vote might bring him down some, but I doubt it'll be to the point where he drops below what Ganondorf did (who needed the day vote to get as high as he got, actually).

At this point, based on a static Diablo, Sonic stands at 40.12% on Link. That's ahead of Mario, folks.

Based on a static Sonic, Diablo drops to an even 23.00% on Link...Barely above Kefka. That's interesting, to say the least. Perhaps outside support helped him more than we thought. I'd guess, based on this, that Diablo will take some off before it's all said and done, but not nearly enough to match his Spring Contest number.

Oh, and Ganondorf based on that 23.00% stands at 33.04%, almost dead even with 2004 Snake.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: The Real Truth | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:41:19 AM | Message Detail
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:39:25 AM | Message Detail
On the topic of the noble nine and those who are in a position to get into it...

Snake > Sonic > Ganon > Zelda = Bowser > Aeris > Tifa = Vincent.

In 2k5, of course.


You'd put Zelda over Squall and Auron?
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203/300 Battle Trophies collected in Star Ocean 3 (Taking a break)
Supporter of Squall Leonhart in the Summer 2005 Character Contest
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:41:55 AM | Message Detail
I'd take Zelda over Squall, but not Auron.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: The Real Truth | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:43:12 AM | Message Detail
So you think Auron > Squall. I'd love to see Squall vs. Zelda next year.
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203/300 Battle Trophies collected in Star Ocean 3 (Taking a break)
Supporter of Squall Leonhart in the Summer 2005 Character Contest
From: The Real Truth | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:43:28 AM | Message Detail
Actually maybe not, with TP coming out and all.
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203/300 Battle Trophies collected in Star Ocean 3 (Taking a break)
Supporter of Squall Leonhart in the Summer 2005 Character Contest
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:45:32 AM | Message Detail
And at least the prospect of Sonic increasing this year leaves the potential that Knuckles might have increased as well, making Squall look somewhat better, though not enough to where I'd consider him the favorite against Vincent.

Oh, and for the record, if Sonic is at around 40% on Link, Jin is around 19% on Link.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:47:41 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and for the record, if Sonic is at around 40% on Link, Jin is around 19% on Link.

That seems to be a bit to high. But god I love today's result, Sonic has a chance to get above 70% on a non fodder character, it's been awhile since we saw that.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:48:57 AM | Message Detail
Man, Sonic is destroying Diablo right now. 4 out of the last 6 updates, he's taken above 70% of the vote, including 75% on one. Very nice indeed.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: The Real Truth | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:49:24 AM | Message Detail
I really have no idea with Squall vs. Vincent. FF7 should SFF FF8 but Vincent is optional while Squall is the main character. I know that this was brought up before when people (Including myself) thought Vincent would be weak due to being optional, but I think this is different. Anyway, I'm really hyped for this match.
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203/300 Battle Trophies collected in Star Ocean 3 (Taking a break)
Supporter of Squall Leonhart in the Summer 2005 Character Contest
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:51:56 AM | Message Detail
I think Squall has his division and can get around 45% on Crono. Then again it might be that I overestimate Squall since I want Magus and Knuckles to look as strong as possible :D
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/1/2005 1:53:09 AM | Message Detail
45% on Crono would be nice, but I ain't holding my breath. I think Sonic and Mega Man will struggle to get that much on him.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
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