Dante had bracket support, too.

curiosity: what would Kirby through unadjusted Tidus 2k4 get on Squall through Knuckles 2k4?
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Squall will have a heavy bracket support and a pic advantage I believe.

Bracket support shouldn't matter very much and the match picture will certainly be going Vincent's way.

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Sullen and unrefined; only speaks to others when absolutely necessary. His fighting moves, while rough and unpolished, are executed with absolute precision.

Dante had bracket support and a great pic, so I think he did better than he should have.
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Squall might get his peg leg pic.

And then there's my hard believe that there is no way that Squall would get under 55% on Dante in any situation.
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As for these hero/sidekick/villain hypotheses, they come up often in this topic, and they've pretty much always proved wrong in the past.

Elaborate pls.

Auron is stronger than Tidus. Heck, if Bowser hits Kirby with enough SFF, Rikku will be ranked ahead of Tidus. Kefka will be ranked above Terra, Kratos Aurion will be ranked above Lloyd, and Vivi may be ranked above Zidane when all is said and done. It seems to me that the hero/sidekick/villain theory doesn't hold nearly as much water with RPG characters as it does with characters from Nintendo or Sega.
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The picture definitely going Vincent's way? I highly doubt it. Squall is quite photogenic, especially if he gets a CoM sprite.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

yet you think Squall over Vincent?
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Auron is stronger than Tidus.
Conceded.

Heck, if Bowser hits Kirby with enough SFF, Rikku will be ranked ahead of Tidus.
But that would be a direct result of SFF.

Kefka will be ranked above Terra,
Not a real hero, unrecognizability, bracket-backing, etc.

Kratos Aurion will be ranked above Lloyd,
Way, way too cult to be seriously used as a point. Everyone who knows about Lloyd knows about Kratos.

and Vivi may be ranked above Zidane when all is said and done.
Pic factor, SFF.

It seems to me that the hero/sidekick/villain theory doesn't hold nearly as much water with RPG characters as it does with characters from Nintendo or Sega.

You forgot FFVII...
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So I guess we only count Cloud, Squall, and Tidus when taking this theory into account?
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Well, I'd think that it would only work with fairy mainstream games.
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Meh, I don't expect much of any SFF in Vincent/Squall at all. However...Does anyone think Squall could do better if he gets his KH sprite? People seem to think Cloud benefitted with his against Sonic and Link in 2003, and perhaps Sephiroth did, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Oh, and because it's humorous, I'm going to recount a conversation I had by phone last night with a friend. He's a casual gamer, and is while he is aware of the contest as of out last conversation he had not voted in it once. Obviously this isn't word for word.

Me: Yeah, so Squall and Knux are having a match, and Knux is doing pretty well.
Dustin: Yeah, Knuckles is pretty cool. I'd probably vote for him.
Me: Yesterday Vincent beat Dante.
Dustin: What? That guy from FF7 beat Dante? I mean, he's cooler than Cloud, but it's the guy from DMC.
Me: Yeah, but they are practically the same sort of character
Dustin *rambles on about their differences*
Me: *rambles on about DoC*
Me: So, you should vote for Knuckles. He's falling behind and needs it
Dustin: *some excusse* Who is Squall again?
Me: *blank expression* From FF8
Dustin: Oh yeah, hero, he was alright...

And to think, people in this topic were saying no one would know who Vincent was because he was optional.
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I dont know if he would benefit or not. But it would be nice to see.


KB

Cloud and Sephiroth didn't have sprites; they had character models...
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I don't think Squall would benefit that much from his KH sprite. It looks better than his FF8 model, but it isn't necessarily as attractive as Cloud's KH sprite with his huge sword out and his wings clearly visible.

I think Cloud's KH pic in conjunction with Link's WW pic helped him out. With Link's WW pic, I feel Cloud's KH pic was more than enough to push fans of both to vote for Cloud, especially if they weren't that fond of WW. Hell, I was one of those people and I'm a huge Link fan.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I mean, KH art in general. I mean, it's a completely different look, after all. And most people seem to prefer KH Squall's look.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I don't really think bracket voting makes as big of a difference as people seem to think, especially in a contest like this where most people are already out. Most of the voting population doesn't even have a bracket, and those that do probably vote for who they like better, especially in a match like Vincent/Dante where both are pretty polarizing. The only way I can see bracket voting making a significant difference is in match between two obscure characters (Vyse/Laharl, Lloyd/Wesker, etc).
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ZSB [aX]

Not a real hero, unrecognizability, bracket-backing, etc.

Bracket backing wouldn't make a difference, since Dante would've bracket-overperformed by the same amount on Vincent.
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Chichi... were you talking with Heroic Mario? >___>

Anyway, point taken... I didn't htink that being optional would necessarily hurt Vincent's recognizability, but somehow I don't think that people care about Vincent as much as they do about Squall. I could be dead wrong, having never played either of their games.

thereal:

Now that I look at it, Link's WW pic against Cloud was pretty damn badass. It's just a shame that it had to be from WW though.

Leon:

I must agree that Squall is awesome in Kingdom Hearts.
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I actually think that Dante did overperform on Vincent. I expected at least a 55% beating.

But I still expect SFF to swing Squall's way.
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"Chichi... were you talking with Heroic Mario? >___>"

No, this was one of my irl friends. Obv HM knows who Squall is, this guy had to take 20 minutes to figure out but he knew Vincent instantly without me even saying FF7.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Actually, the impression I got that I was in the minority thinking brackets were significant. I know that LordofDabu agrees with me. I think that bracket backing is especially important in semi-close matches that go from 52-47 upt to 58-41. I think that it may have helped MGS2 against SSBM a smidge, actually.
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Way, way too cult to be seriously used as a point. Everyone who knows about Lloyd knows about Kratos.

So? Everyone who knows Cloud knows Aeris, and everyone who knows Sora knows Riku. I have no idea what your point is.

And...there was more SFF in Bowser/Yoshi and Yoshi/Luigi than there will be in Vincent/Squall.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

show your friend a picture of Squall and he'd probably know him instantly.

no one's doubting that Vincent is known.. just that he's not as known as other characters from FF7.
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No, this was one of my irl friends. Obv HM knows who Squall is, this guy had to take 20 minutes to figure out but he knew Vincent instantly without me even saying FF7.

HM wouldn't know who Squall is after playing 10 hours of FFVII... >_>

No, just kidding. =P
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HM wouldn't know who Squall is after playing 10 hours of FFVII... >_>

Considering Squall isn't in the game, that's understandable.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Not to mention the IDHABEBIDKF

I don't have a bracket entered but I don't know factor >_<

There are people without brackets bracket voting >_<

I swear I've seen it happen on at least 10 different occasions.
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So? Everyone who knows Cloud knows Aeris, and everyone who knows Sora knows Riku. I have no idea what your point is.

Wrong on both counts. I've known Cloud since I was 11, but all I knew of Aeris (hell all I KNOW of Aeris) was that spoiler.

And there is no way in hell everyone who knows the hero of Kingdom Hearts knows Riku. The massive shoes and key are unmistakable. Riku looks like a generic prettyboy.
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You better believe brackets make a difference, especially in closer matches. I did a study on this earlier (I think during the Villain Contest). Even if half of the voters with brackets vote to save their bracket, it would have a significant effect in a match, especially a close one.

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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Actually, the impression I got that I was in the minority thinking brackets were significant. I know that LordofDabu agrees with me. I think that bracket backing is especially important in semi-close matches that go from 52-47 upt to 58-41. I think that it may have helped MGS2 against SSBM a smidge, actually.


Forgot about Magus? I guess that he underperformed against Squall and overperformed against Magus...that makes *tons* of sense. And we can't forget Ocelot's huge overperformance against Pac-Man, or Bowser's underperformance on Sephiroth. Bracket-voting is irrelevant.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Obviously there's a non-bracket voting population, which is the vast majority. But I think the bracket-vote is underrated.
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Wrong on both counts. I've known Cloud since I was 11, but all I knew of Aeris (hell all I KNOW of Aeris) was that spoiler.

So? You do know Aeris, and that's enough. There are probably people who know Aeris but not Cloud, just because of teh spoilers.

And there is no way in hell everyone who knows the hero of Kingdom Hearts knows Riku. The massive shoes and key are unmistakable. Riku looks like a generic prettyboy.

I was talking about the people who know him well enough to vote for him. I mean, who's going to vote for him when all they know is "Oh, he's that kid from they Disney game with clown shoes"?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/31/2005 5:36:02 PM | Message Detail | #430
You better believe brackets make a difference, especially in closer matches. I did a study on this earlier (I think during the Villain Contest). Even if half of the voters with brackets vote to save their bracket, it would have a significant effect in a match, especially a close one.

Such a simple analysis is extremely flawed, especially because it ignores the conditional probability that people will tend to pick with their bias in their brackets to begin with.

We do have much evidence against the impact of bracket voting (e.g., all the cases where the character with far less bracket support wins, like Vincent), and perhaps I'm drawing a blank, but I can't think of any in favor of it. Outside of pure speculative logic.

And in truly close matches, anything can make a difference, so there's not much utility in bringing those up.
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There are probably people who know Aeris but not Cloud, just because of teh spoilers.

Somehow, I really, really doubt it. They might have HEARD of the spoiler itself, but they'd know nothing about Aeris. More than likely, if they know ANYTHING about FFVII, they at least know who Cloud is.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

"show your friend a picture of Squall and he'd probably know him instantly."

Yeah, but he still recognized Vincent by name. That's gotta tell you anyone who thought being a hidden character was a huge detriment to Vincent was crazy. There will be those people, but not (as has already been shown) not enough to keep him from being on the level of near elites.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Forgot about Magus? I guess that he underperformed against Squall and overperformed against Magus...that makes *tons* of sense.
I have no earthly idea what you're trying to articulate. Sarcasm is not an effective tool in debating. The pic is far more relevant than the bracket-vote, as is the voting-population's shift. Those, and Magus's own weakness, are the factors that led up to Knuckles upsetting Magus.

And we can't forget Ocelot's huge overperformance against Pac-Man,
Again, the pic is far more important. Ocelot was recognizable but terrible-looking compared to a bold, bright Pac Man. Kiddie-votes and whatnot.

or Bowser's underperformance on Sephiroth.
An exception to the rule, I'd say, when the winner is so clear-cut as that. When Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth take the scene against non-Noble-Niners, bracket-voting disappears completely.

Bracket-voting is irrelevant.
Thank you for the non-sarcastic point, but it's a bit late.
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Yeah, but he still recognized Vincent by name. That's gotta tell you anyone who thought being a hidden character was a huge detriment to Vincent was crazy. There will be those people, but not (as has already been shown) not enough to keep him from being on the level of near elites.

Uh, I think those people were saying that the people who never got Vincent wouldn't vote for him. Obviously, your friend did get Vincent, so it doesn't really apply in his case.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

No offense Shadowdude, but you seem to be extremely selective in terms of which evidence happens to be irrelevant.
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So? You do know Aeris, and that's enough. There are probably people who know Aeris but not Cloud, just because of teh spoilers.
Yes, everyone knows Aeris. But I'm not going to vote for her with no evidence of her being anything. Cloud is badass, and as much as anyone hates him, that is totally undeniable. He looks cool, and everyone knows him.

I was talking about the people who know him well enough to vote for him. I mean, who's going to vote for him when all they know is "Oh, he's that kid from they Disney game with clown shoes"?
If there is a "kiddie" vote as I surmise, then yes, that would definitely be enough. Besides, until the very end of the game, there is no reason whatsoever to like Riku at all.
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Such a simple analysis is extremely flawed, especially because it ignores the conditional probability that people will tend to pick with their bias in their brackets to begin with.

Um... I'm thinking that the people with favorite brackets constitute very little of the population. Those who are biased in unsure matches will still vote in many of the certain matches, too.
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I have no earthly idea what you're trying to articulate. Sarcasm is not an effective tool in debating. The pic is far more relevant than the bracket-vote, as is the voting-population's shift. Those, and Magus's own weakness, are the factors that led up to Knuckles upsetting Magus.

Fine then. Magus overperformed on Link and underperformed on Knuckles despite having the brackets against/for him in those respective matches.

Do you remember the big factor that we argued about for a while for why Crono and Magus were so strong? It was the DBZ-factor, which would only really apply when they didn't get their sprites. Sprite overperformance for Magus and Crono is as ridiculous a theory as I've ever heard.

Again, the pic is far more important. Ocelot was recognizable but terrible-looking compared to a bold, bright Pac Man. Kiddie-votes and whatnot.

Ocelot got the same vote he got against Bowser, which is the match he was ranked by in the XS. If he got the same pic, why would he underperform in one match but not the other?

An exception to the rule, I'd say, when the winner is so clear-cut as that. When Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth take the scene against non-Noble-Niners, bracket-voting disappears completely.

So I guess the theory of SFF being a result of bracket-voting has been abandoned then? Good to know.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

No offense Shadowdude, but you seem to be extremely selective in terms of which evidence happens to be irrelevant.

Trust me, if I didn't want to be offended, I'd leave the topic immediately.

But... most stuff seems relevant to me. You really can't ignore any poll, despite what I may say. Link vs Magus happened all right, and despite what I think about its results, they are concrete and what I say is speculation. However, much of the speculation seems justified.
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To be fair, DBZ factor only applies to Crono. His resemblance to DBZ is much greater than Magus, while Frog's is almost non-existent.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Um... I'm thinking that the people with favorite brackets constitute very little of the population. Those who are biased in unsure matches will still vote in many of the certain matches, too.

You can't forget that most brackets go with their favorite, because the character chosen in the bracket is more popular. And since most people don't bracket-vote in the first place, I can hardly see it making much of a difference.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/31/2005 5:46:26 PM | Message Detail | #441
Um... I'm thinking that the people with favorite brackets constitute very little of the population. Those who are biased in unsure matches will still vote in many of the certain matches, too.

People's expectations will obviously be affected by bias. This whole contest is about favoritism and who-you-like-better. It would be silly to ignore conditional probabilities that will matter a great deal.



From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/31/2005 5:48:28 PM | Message Detail | #442
Sprite overperformance for Magus and Crono is as ridiculous a theory as I've ever heard.

Actually I'm a believer in sprites helping Magus and Frog. The evidence is somewhat weighty in this regard. Not conclusive by any means, by it's visibly there.
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To be fair, DBZ factor only applies to Crono. His resemblance to DBZ is much greater than Magus, while Frog's is almost non-existent.

What? When the pic for Magus/Knuckles came out, tons of people talked about how Magus looked almost exactly the same as Vegeta...someone even mentioned it just a couple pages ago.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Fine then. Magus overperformed on Link and underperformed on Knuckles despite having the brackets against/for him in those respective matches.
Again, shift in the voting pool... but if you want a better answer, I think that when L/C/S are involved, bracket-voting tends to go out the window.

Do you remember the big factor that we argued about for a while for why Crono and Magus were so strong? It was the DBZ-factor, which would only really apply when they didn't get their sprites. Sprite overperformance for Magus and Crono is as ridiculous a theory as I've ever heard.

And I think that "DBZ factor" is bull. Crono looks cool in both sprites and artwork. Magus looks amazing in his sprite and generic in his "DBZ artwork". Him looking like Vegeta is the one of the more pathetic conjectures of the board.

Ocelot got the same vote he got against Bowser, which is the match he was ranked by in the XS. If he got the same pic, why would he underperform in one match but not the other?

Because the voting pool shifted hugely in the last few months, and because Pac Man isn't nearly as weak as the stats would have him. In 2003, he was decimated by Kefka SFF. In 2004, he was crushed by a Luigi overperformance.

So I guess the theory of SFF being a result of bracket-voting has been abandoned then? Good to know.
SFF is not a result of bracket-voting. I think that they are two independent factors, BOTH of which will help Squall.
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You can't forget that most brackets go with their favorite, because the character chosen in the bracket is more popular.

I really don't understand this... if this were the case there would be no such thing as an upset, because everyone would pick the more popular character. What evidence is there that bracketmakers go with their favorite?
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What? When the pic for Magus/Knuckles came out, tons of people talked about how Magus looked almost exactly the same as Vegeta...someone even mentioned it just a couple pages ago.

They were wrong. As a DBZ fan, I would never associate Magus with Vegeta.
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