" A lot of the time I've picked against common sense (Alucard over Sora, Ryu over Bowser)"

Funny how I got both of those matches right. You do know that Bowser went up a lot since 2k4 (which he was nearly 50/50 with Ryu then anyway) in the SpC2k5, right? Also, you do know that the 2k4 numebr for Alucard is based on Ganon being static from 2k3 to 2k4 which Tidus said was impossible, right? If you assumed a static Alucard you also have Sora winning.

The stats aren't against common sense, you just have use common sense to ignore some of the results that are no longer correct. Once you can pick out which matches went wrong you should be able to use the stats like a pro.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Vincent is definitely the favorite going into the match. Even though his performance against Dante will probably end up being more impressive than Squall's performance today, it's the SFF that seals the deal. SFF is almost assured in Vincent/Squall, and I can't possibly imagine any Final Fantasy SFF shifting away from FFVII.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Wow, this is a percentage bloodbath for Mr. Leonhart <_<

He best be stablizing this soon if I hope to hold off Moltar.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 49/56 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Vincent will be taking this division, as planned.

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Sullen and unrefined; only speaks to others when absolutely necessary. His fighting moves, while rough and unpolished, are executed with absolute precision.

Using past contest matches to decide=extrapolation though >_<

Unless you only use direct matches with each other.

That's why I think it's stupid when people go "LOL useless stats" Because I'm sure lots of people use the same practice on their own. Saying the stats are untrustworthy, but then saying something like "I think Zero would give Aeris a good match because they performed about the same on Sonic" when it's the exact same thing as just using the stats and looking at their numbers.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Even without SFF if their opponents are static Vincent has the upperhand here. While I can see a slight rise from Knux, Dante has even more reason to go up... so yeah, things aren't looking all that bad for Vincent right now.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

i wonder if the winner's score will be the lowest we've had since 2k2 not including the ToC
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

So how do ToC points work anyway?
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Who would you guys choose in a Kirby/Knuckles match?

I really want to see that one, along with (of course) Kirby/Dante.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I was thinking of going 53% for Squall, but bias held me back.

Hell, if I was completely unbiased, I would have had Squall with 55%, so he's not even performing up to those expectations that I had of him.

That being said, Go Knux!
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Knuckles vs. Squall - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (48/54)

SFF is almost assured in Vincent/Squall, and I can't possibly imagine any Final Fantasy SFF shifting away from FFVII.

Indeed. I couldn't imagine a situation where SFF didn't got FFVII's way.

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Sullen and unrefined; only speaks to others when absolutely necessary. His fighting moves, while rough and unpolished, are executed with absolute precision.

Who would you guys choose in a Kirby/Knuckles match?

I really want to see that one, along with (of course) Kirby/Dante.

Knuckles > Dante > Kirby (though it could change with Kirby's performance against Tidus)
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

"Using past contest matches to decide=extrapolation though >_<"

Clearly there is a misconception about what the stats are. We should sit all of these people down and explain it to them, since they seem to have no clue. Maybe we can run them through some exercises and teach them how the stats actually worked. Hell, it wasn't until I started reworking the stats on my own that I actually realized how close they were and how a little extra guess work on your own can catch the results that weren't right and make them right.

We need a class for contest stats newbies, tat's all there is to it.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Indeed. I couldn't imagine a situation where SFF didn't got FFVII's way.

Cait Sith Vs. Squall. ...YES. Nominate Cait Sith.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

"Who would you guys choose in a Kirby/Knuckles match?"

Kirby, no hesitation.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

wow, Knuckles is holding him at 50/50. impressive. I still think Squall will finish with 55%+, but if you believe Squall is constant, Knuckles did go up a little.

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http://picturesofwalls.com

Cait Sith Vs. Squall. ...YES. Nominate Cait Sith.

He's not saying that every FFVII character will BENEFIT from SFF... Rather I don't see any FFVII character SUFFERING from SFF. Vincent/Squall will either go exactly as their strength projects or the nod goes to Vincent. I couldn't imagine fans of both consistently liking Squall better....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

so how underrated is knuckles in these contests?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Using SFF-Adjusted 2k4 Squall, and assuming that Knuckles finishes with 46%, Knuckles placement in the stats rises to 29.18%, his previous placement being 26.74%.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

Cait Sith Vs. Squall. ...YES. Nominate Cait Sith.

Hey, now that's just being mean.

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Sullen and unrefined; only speaks to others when absolutely necessary. His fighting moves, while rough and unpolished, are executed with absolute precision.

So how do ToC points work anyway?

8 bonus points for each match. 24 total.
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"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." ~ Isaac Asimov

Cloud over Sephiroth for the win!


KB

If you say so, but hindsight is always 20-20. It's easy to say what you should have rejected today, but back in the 2004 offseason when I claimed that Magus was overrated everyone laughed at me and claimed that Magus would give Sonic a serious run for his money.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

I'd expect Kirby to give Squall a run for his money this year.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

No way Yoblazer.

No way.


KB

everyone made fun of me when I said that last week. good luck, yoblazer.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Squall should be the favorite in a rematch, but I think that if it were held, people's expectations would be higher for Kirby this year in terms of percentage. Whether or not Kirby would actually do better is of course uncertain; but his stock would indeed be somewhat higher.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

So has Kirby basically been on the rise every year since 2002? It seems like he does better and better every year.
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Huh-CHA!

if there really has been a site-wide Nintendo shift (which i think there has been), then yes, Kirby could hold his own against Squall. i would predict it to be dead even.

oh, and:

*waves Vincent Valentine fanboy flag*

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

Squall is currently underperforming by over 4% (going by the adjusted 2004 stats) and it's clear that Kirby has gained. Why would it be crazy to assume Kirby couldn't make a match of it? It's not like it takes that much to turn a 55/45 affair into a pretty competitive match.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

"but back in the 2004 offseason when I claimed that Magus was overrated everyone laughed at me and claimed that Magus would give Sonic a serious run for his money."

Everyone? No. I went and redid the stats myself and had placed Magus at around 27% in the stats. Although Ganon's excellent Spring performance led me to think his 2k3 number was right and that Magus was therefor right, I had not only claiemd Magus overrated but (assuming static Squall) pegged him right about where he is. Sadly, I made the wrong judgement call there and I'll pay for it. At the most I should have had Magus makign round 2, oh well, I can still be in the running at least.

Again, using the XStats isn't about going against common sense, it's about using common sense to figure out which matches were wrong or which characters have changed strength since then and apply it. It's complex, but the more you work with them the better you'll get. I never doubted a single match in the gauntlet because of them.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

so in future this contest will have ashe,vaan some dudes from mistwalker possible starcraft ghost characters perhaps meryl from mgs after mgs 4 possibly peach after the revolutioncomes out with ssb:o................no real powerhouses there i'm afraid. no star ocean characters either or even a baten kaitos person
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/31/2005 2:55:32 PM | Message Detail | #381
Squall is currently underperforming by over 4%

That should read "exactly 4%".
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Really? I remember quite a few of the people ridiculing me for saying that I'd never look back on Sonic > Magus. Maybe you weren't amongst them. *shrug*

No, X-stats don't go against common sense per se. But, they can be misleading.

Also, you never doubted Kirby over Tidus?

x_X
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

I think the "underperformance" is on the behalf of Knuckles "overpreforming"


KB

From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/31/2005 3:40:13 PM | Message Detail
SFF is almost assured in Vincent/Squall, and I can't possibly imagine any Final Fantasy SFF shifting away from FFVII.

Indeed. I couldn't imagine a situation where SFF didn't got FFVII's way.

This hath been archived, so when Squall beats Vincent easily, I can merely point out the FFVII sidekick: FFVIII hero sidekick I have been preaching since I got back from my cruise (woulda been since Magus lost, but I was still in the Carribean enjoying the company of drunken 18 year old hotties... yum yum!).

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 49/56 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

And replace 'FFVIII hero sidekick' with 'FFVIII hero SFF.'

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 49/56 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

And I guess that Squall over Vincent isn't a "lock" - but I will be very surprised to see him with anything undre 52% in two weeks' time.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

I'd never have ridiculed the thought of Sonic > Magus, even back when I'd have made that pick.

"Also, you never doubted Kirby over Tidus?"

Never once. I was more worried about DK vs. MC than all of the matches in the gauntlet combined, and I wasn't all that afraid of losing points to DK. There was never a shred of doubt in my mind about Kirby beating Tidus.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

I agree with you completely, Heroic Viktor. Squall's being the lead, along with Vincent's being a sidekick (and being optional can only hurt him), will be more than enough for Squall to SFF Vincent.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

People didn't need stats to figure Magus could challenge Sonic. They always had high expectations of him. People expected him to be quite strong. His defeating Ganon seemed to confirm this.

I mean, Magus is basically Vegeta.


As for these hero/sidekick/villain hypotheses, they come up often in this topic, and they've pretty much always proved wrong in the past.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

This hath been archived, so when Squall beats Vincent easily,

Going to laugh at yourself after the match? =p

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Sullen and unrefined; only speaks to others when absolutely necessary. His fighting moves, while rough and unpolished, are executed with absolute precision.

As for these hero/sidekick/villain hypotheses, they come up often in this topic, and they've pretty much always proved wrong in the past.

Elaborate pls.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

"And I guess that Squall over Vincent isn't a "lock" - but I will be very surprised to see him with anything undre 52% in two weeks' time."

Why? He's failing miserably here against Knux unless Knux is up to the level of Auron. Combine that with the fact that Dante has more reason to gain than Kuckles does and you have a match on your hand where Squall shouldn't be the favorite if there even is one.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Knuckles has done quite well for himself here. I'm not quite sure what to make of this. I think Vincent should deservingly be the favorite as I'd take Dante over Knuckles (though certainly not decisively, 52-53% tops). And it looks like either Tidus has dropped, Kirby has risen, or possibly both.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

That's a good point, HV.

Vincent should be SFFd by Squall, due to Vincent having about 5 minutes of time devoted to his story, while Squall has the entire game going for him. I doubt many who love both, outside of this board, can justify a vote for Vincent over Squall there. (well, some will justify it with FF7 > FF8, but not enough to give Vincent the win)

53-47 for Squall, anyone?
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Summer Contest 2005 Winner: Mario
Mario will SFF Samus, and pull it out against Crono.

Squall will have a heavy bracket support and a pic advantage I believe.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

I'm not quite sure why people still refer to unadjusted Auron as his true level. It has been repeatedly disproven.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Though by all means I could be eating my words (as I was yesterday) if Vincent beats Squall with more than 52% of the vote.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.