How the leaderboard has fallen...

Wow, I'm actually one of the 66 people with 50 points today, but had Magus winning
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 50/54, Predicted Winner: Crono

If Cloud/Squall or Aeris/Sora is a sign of Vincent/Squall, that makes Squall look worse

For the umpteenth time, this is a completely different situation. Link would SFF every Nintendo character under the sun, but Bowser didn't SFF Yoshi. You can't compare Vincent to Cloud, nor can you compare Squall to Sora. Sora was the star of a game that most Square fans bought to see the Final Fantasy characters they already knew and loved.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Right...and my gut goes with Vincent on this; I thought Magus > Vincent > Squall before the contest (though I've recognized that all three had a realistic shot at the division), and now the only thing that's changed after two rounds is that Magus was oh-so over-rated.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I'm merely throwin' it out there; besides, it's not so much that I'm comparing Vincent/Squall to Cloud/Sora as it is me relating FF7 and its proven ability to SFF other big characters from Square. I think Vincent would only benefit minimally from this situation since they're lookin' to be so close in the stats and Vincent's optional as opposed to Squall being big in two games of different series...but those two matches are still worth noting, if for nothing else than the chance.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

You know, after seeing that 2/3 of those who picked Vincent to beat Kerrigan didn't think he'd beat Dante/Terra, I'm almost convinced Squall's prediction percentage here will be over 50%.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I'd expect about 40% to have picked Squall, since so few picked Crono, I don't see too many picking Magus. Knuckles will have a fair few and I'd guess Geno will have little, so 40% sounds about right.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Well, Squall did have the highest prediction percentage in the division for the first round, and he hasn't exactly faced characters known for receiving overwhelming bracket support by casuals. I think he can manage 50%+.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Yeah, I expect Squall to have something around the mid-50's percentage-wise.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

So who thinks that Squall is going to have 65% of brackets backing him after this match? I do.

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence

I would think more than one out of every four brackets would have Magus or Knuckles coming out of this four-pack, so I can't agree with 65% for Squall until I see it with my own eyes.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Hey, somebody just told me that this makes Squall the first non-Noble Nine character to notch 6 wins in a Summer Contest (if you include the villains contest, Ganondorf and Bowser beat him there, but still, that's different. They had an additional contest Squall couldn't have had). Hurray!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I have a hard time believing that Knuckles could beat Dante post-DMC 3, thus I have a hard time believing that Squall is going to be able to beat Vincent now.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

So what's the consensus about today's match? 20XXF-adjusted Knuckles is only expected to get 42.16% today against Squall 2k3, and he's currently at 45.48% (and still goin' up). Did Knuckles go up or Squall go down?

No, "lol xstats" is not an option, though you are allowed to call the adjustments into question. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Knuckle's percentage of the votes by the hour:
09:00 | 46.81%
08:00 | 46.84%
07:00 | 49.11%
06:00 | 44.18%
05:00 | 45.69%
04:00 | 44.16%
03:00 | 40.87%
02:00 | 42.75%
01:00 | 43.36%

Squall will probably still outscore Vincent, but that means I have no idea who wins next round. Nuts.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I don't think Dante would beat Knuckles that badly (say...52-53% at the most), but I'd still take him to win. Vincent probably should be considered the favorite, but it's not out of Squall's realm of possibility to win.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I am just now seeing that too Crono..


>.<


Vincent may it!


KB

..Vincent may it?

So what's the consensus about today's match? 20XXF-adjusted Knuckles is only expected to get 42.16% today against Squall 2k3, and he's currently at 45.48% (and still goin' up). Did Knuckles go up or Squall go down?

I think Knuckles got a boost. He did beat Magus after all, and you aren't going to convince me that Frog > Magus. How much, I have no idea. We probably won't know, either, because there will probably be SFF next round and there might be SFF the round after that.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

We are going to see a MASSIVE shakeup of the leaderboard no matter what happens in this match. Pretty much everyone had Magus taking the division, even Vincent/Squall will see a huge shakeup due to that.

Anyways, I was wrong and Knux won't pull off another upset this contest. Ah well, 55-45 is still fine to see. Though it proves that Magus dropped big and Knuckles remained fairly steady.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

I don't expect much noticeable SFF next round, and I definitely don't expect Crono to SFF either of them. Other than Aeris/Sora (and I personally believe that's a special case rather than a rule), characters close in strength generally don't SFF one another.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Heh, Squall has killed Knux on the last few updates, though that seems to be Rad Red getting fewer votes now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Yet Knuckles jumped .06% with that update alone, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

That was unusual. Knuckles had difficulty getting above 200 per update for about the last half hour, and then he jumps to 230.

It probably happened because I said Squall killed him the last few updates.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Hehe. Vincent and Squall with similar results on similar opponents. One could give Vincent the benefit of the doubt because of DMC3, but Knuckles beating Magus still has to make anyone wary. It's not like the BOP can give much of an answer - 19 picks for Squall, 10 for Vincent. Yes, Squall almost has twice as much, but it's so low it's virtually insignificant anyway.

Conclusion: Crono has one farce of a path to the Final 4.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

And Squall just took .05% of that loss back the next update.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I personally had been using a Squall based on 2K3 Kirby in 2004. And keeping him around that area, he's projected to get about 54.5% on Knuckles. So yeah.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

At this point, it's looking like Crono is all but guaranteed a spot in the finals, especially since he's looked relatively constant from last year amidst all the 2005 hubbub. It's just a matter of which Nintendo representative he'll face now.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Crono in the finals was practically a given before the contest even began, at least in my mind. I just didn't think it'd be THIS easy.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

right since my interbnet has been back on for like 10 minutes. who was surprised at vincent's prediction percentage? a FF7 char with uber low prediction percentage? what is the world coming to?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I never dreamed Crono would face a challenge from the Devil Division, and now that it's once again looking like he won't, only Mega Man/Sonic stand in his way. I don't see him having much trouble disposing of either.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

...what about Tifa?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

If she somehow makes it, he'll lay the smack down on her candyass.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

If she's strong enough to take out both Sonic and Megaman, I'll be more worried than that, hehe. Sonic can't provide Crono with a decent challenge. Megaman can, to a certain extent, and Tifa's still much of an unknown. If someone from the Chaos division can threaten Crono, it's Tifa, not Sonic.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I wouldn't be too surprised is Sonic can give Crono the better match, actually. Aside from his 2002 classic with Sephiroth, I just get the feeling that Mega Man's casual fanbase abandons him when he faces another strong elite.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Kunckes won an update.


KB

Honestly, I think the championship is really gonna come down to Rock Paper Scissors between Mario, Samus and Crono...

Samus can beat Crono, but might lose to Mario
Mario can beat Samus, but might lose to Crono
Crono can beat Mario, but might lose to Samus


I think Samus/Mario will decide the championship right there.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Any chance Knuckles can finish with 46+% today?

I'm hopin' so, and almost thinkin' so to boot.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Any chance Knuckles can finish with 46+% today?

I'm hopin' so, and almost thinkin' so to boot.

I certainly do NOT hope so, as that means Squall will job to Vincent.

I used to support Vincent hoping that he could give Crono a challenge.

But now that I know that he won't even come close to that, I'll support the one I like more, Squall.

Btw, Squall seems to have weakened somewhat, he shouldn't fall below 56% even on adjusted Knux.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Actually, the one match that looked way off was the match against Link, and that's because the Blue Bomber is very much reliant on the Nintendo fanbase because of his character and game design. I'd pick Mario over him in a heartbeat and never look back because of this; of course they'll abandon Megaman in favor of a true blue Nintendo character. (A strong one, of course: it's not like Yoshi can come close anyway.) Heck, I wouldn't be brimming with confidence putting Megaman over Ganondorf, even if I'd pick him over stronger non-Nintendo characters, like Sonic or Snake.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Actually, the one match that looked way off was the match against Link, and that's because the Blue Bomber is very much reliant on the Nintendo fanbase because of his character and game design.

Isn't that just as ridiculous as calling FF VII chars capable of SFF'ing any PS RPG chars?

Besides, Tidus and Vercetti suggested that MM's performance against Link was legit.

We'll never know about Knux since Squall (or Vincent) will be behind SFF against Crono.

Snake is the only exception so far.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Heck, I wouldn't be brimming with confidence putting Megaman over Ganondorf, even if I'd pick him over stronger non-Nintendo characters, like Sonic or Snake.

I liked the idea of a Ganon/Auron match (which we got, thankfully) and let the winner face Mega Man after last year's contests. There was a chance of Ganon out-doing expectations against Mega Man due to what we thought about Mega/Link, and there was a chance of Auron goin' under expectations against Mega Man due to what we thought about Mega/Tidus.

Now, since then, we've gotten better ideas on Ganon and Auron (though maybe not completely accurate) and we've seen that Mega/Tidus and Link/Mega are correct for the most part (though Link/Mega is still controversial)...so it wouldn't be so great of an idea now. I thought it was great last year though, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I thought Knuckles was the day vote master?


KB

He's supposed to be, yes. I'm gonna wait 'til after-school hours roll around before I judge though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Well its getting close here on the east cost.

Most schools let out between 2-3.


KB

Yeah; I'm gonna wait about an hour or so and see how he's doin'. Until then...text-messaging and Eternal Champions, here we come.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Evidence for 20XXDF: Mega Man, Snake, Zero, Knuckles, Kefka
Evidence against: Tidus, Vercetti, Master Chief, Frog

Considering that MC and Frog probably have very little to do with 20XXDF and Vercetti has a very good reason for falling on his own, I think that the evidence in favor overrides the evidence against.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

A guy I know says he's going to give Knux a plug on his radio show. (National radio station.)

It's last throw of the dice stuff, though...


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Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap

I'm not going to say anything for sure at this point. The poll is only about halfway done, things don't look good for Knuckles but the same thing happened during his match with Magus.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

squall has a 4300 lead i feel good about having him taking the division but i'm still bashing my head for having tidus take his division
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Well.. Squall will take the night vote.

He could end up with 55.5 or 56%

If he is fortunate.


KB