Squall's % in the last 30 minutes: 57.11
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6

So, no more "Knuckles beat Magus and so he'll beat Squall!11!1", right? ;)

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

People just didn't want to admit that their god was really just an average midcarder.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Of course not. Hell, I'm not sure he'd rate above Knux on a favorites list or minebut I still didn't want to see Magus be that weak. It feels dirty and wrong, like Kefka being a loser. Then agian I had much bigger reasons for wanting Knux to win here... I like Knux better and it certianly improves my chances at obtaining prizes.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/31/2005 3:00:43 AM | Message Detail | #052
25.14% had Vincent. Ouch.

There's your explanation for why Dante did so well when you pair it with DMC3.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

So much for all this Knux hype. At least Vincent made it past round two. >_>
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Well the lead's over 1000 now, and still growing strong. This is almost over.

This was over from the start.

The last 3 updates for Squall were over 60%, things are starting to look very good for him.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

"There's your explanation for why Dante did so well when you pair it with DMC3."

I dunno, man... the best match of Magus' life was the one where he had the least backing. I'm sure brackets help, but I'd be hard pressed to believe that even with 50% of the brackets he'd move more than 2k. Yeah, that'd make a sizable difference, but it wouldn't put him on a whole new plane.

"So much for all this Knux hype"

Let's see about the day. He hasn't failed us yet, so I'm thinking he could chew off a bit more than Kirby. Not much, mind you, but enough to make Vincent vs, Squall look scary (since stats wise Dante > Knux without DMC3).

"At least Vincent made it past round two. >_>"

Vicent making round 3 should never have been in doubt, period. He may have had a close one, but there was no reason to think he'd lose. I't brings deep joy to my heart when realize how many people were owned by underestimating him, even if he is a step (or at most two, and that's if Dante DROPPED) below the highest of the highs.

"Well the lead's over 1000 now, and still growing strong. This is almost over."

We've seen biiger comebacks, and Knux would be the type to pull it off, but yeah it's pretty much done. Of course, despite the W being out of reach there's nothing to say that gaining respect is also.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

68% for Squall after a huge drop by Knux! O_O
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

if Squall keeps this up throughout the day, I'd love to see a matchup of him and Aeris. that'd be interesting.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Yay, now I can say that I've always said I would take Squall in a Squall/Aeris match.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

"if Squall keeps this up throughout the day, I'd love to see a matchup of him and Aeris. that'd be interesting."

Why, he's always been clsoe to Aeris and we've known that for years. For Squall to look like an actual threat to Aeris this has to be 2k4 Knux and he has to be brought down to 40% by the end of the match, I wouldn't put money on that happening... Especially since he just fought back some.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Cryyy...my 25-way tie for 2nd.....shattered...stupid magus :(.

That said, Vincent will beat Squall.
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Reality is so boring. If I could, I'd sleep forever, if it would mean I'd never stop dreaming.

You and me both, man. And my big hope here was Knux > Squall. I mean, I never actaully thought it had a chance of happening, but it'd have kept me in the running. Now, my next big hops is that Knux's % last round indicates that Magus was favored significantly in this match.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/31/2005 10:35:26 AM | #164
For Squall to look like an actual threat to Aeris this has to be 2k4 Knux and he has to be brought down to 40% by the end of the match

What, for Squall to be a threat (not to win, only be a threat) to Aeris he has to beat Knuckles the same way Snake did? Aeris isn't that strong at all.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Wow is magus really that weak, or is squall that strong.
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190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy

And yes, Squall will beat Vincent and I claim my four points.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

yeah, by keeping it up I meant at the current rate, or 60%. I'd still take Aeris no matter what (see: Sora), but Squall is impressing me. I didn't think he was this strong, and have been on record saying I'd take Kirby over him. I might have to change my mind on that one.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

"What, for Squall to be a threat (not to win, only be a threat) to Aeris he has to beat Knuckles the same way Snake did? Aeris isn't that strong at all."

You do realize that was the 2k4 match, right? the one where the stats show Snake at 33.05% when you adjust MM for SFF that may not have existed with Link.

Aeris in 2k3 is rated at 32.81%, so yeah... I'm saying that Squall would have to be very close to Snake at his weakest point to go 50/50 with Aeris.

In fact, the stats say he already is pretty damn close to Snake 2k4. he's predicted to end with with nearly 58% agaisnt Knux, after all.

Given my temperment (or some may say temper) and the fact that as of late a lot of people have been badmouthing the stats because of an apparent "user error", I wish to ask this as politely as I can: When you make statements like that do you check the stats to back it up at all? Frankly, if you had I don't think you'd have reacted like that. I'm not one to disagree with the ability to predict intuitively, as it has cause me several victories the stats wouldn't have given me, but the numbers that do exist shouldn't be ignored. Unless you have some reason to believe that Aeris has dropped significantly in two years while Squall hasn't, then the fact still remains that he needs to increase 3% on a static (that part obviously being assumed) Knux to beat Aeris and another 1% just to make his own 2k3 number.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Sora isn't the main hero of a final fantasy game though, Squall is. I think Squall has a better chance at sffing Aeris than she does of him. I think that he's the main character and she not the main character could really mean a lot in a match. Basically like Squall/Vincent.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

whoamg knuckles won that last update.

dun dun dun....hahah squall wins.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

that's bad logic. Zidane is a lead FF character. Tidus too. Sora has proved to be stronger than both of them, and you can't even argue that.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

At the current rate of 60%, something I can't concieve of him maintaining in the daylight hours, until actually hitting 60% makes him a threat to Aeris. He needs to actaully be stronger in the day than in the night against one of our assumed strongest day vote characters ever to do it, though. He will, as a best case scenario, end where the stats peg him: ~58%

Short of assuming Aeris dropped, it's non-sensable to call it even between Aeris and Squall. Squall should, in fairness, still be the underdog going into that match making Squall an upset pick.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/31/2005 10:52:18 AM | #171
Given my temperment (or some may say temper) and the fact that as of late a lot of people have been badmouthing the stats because of an apparent "user error", I wish to ask this as politely as I can: When you make statements like that do you check the stats to back it up at all?

Snake beat Aeris 56/44. Snake beat Knuckles 59/41. Squall is beating Knuckles and let's call it 55/45 (oh, wait, Knux shaved 9 votes off, COMEBACK!). Which is less than Aeris would through Snake. Ergo Squall is the favourite.

Although you really don't need the stats to realise that Squall and Aeris are actually close in strength.

I now await a mandatory "but Snake beat Squall with 65% lolz!" retort, which just goes to show that checking the stats to try to prove a favourite in an obviously close match can go horribly wrong.

And Squall over 1300. C-C-C-COMEBACK BREAKER
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

that's bad logic. Zidane is a lead FF character. Tidus too. Sora has proved to be stronger than both of them, and you can't even argue that.

So is assuming that she'll beat Squall because of what she did to Sora. They're very different.

And I don't care, really, what the numbers say about Aeris/Squall, because I think there's plenty of people who would have Cloud > Seph > Squall > Aeris. If she did beat him, it would certainly be close. I don't think the voters are going to vote anything FF7 over the main FF8, not that they would all need to, but I don't think the voters are that one sided. There's a huge difference between Cloud sffing Squall and Aeris being able to. But then again, Squall/Aeris is probably easier to determine after Vincent/Squall.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

"I think Squall has a better chance at sffing Aeris than she does of him."

I think there's a better chance of no SFF at all, and I think there's a better chance at regular SFF than rSFF (since she is statistically high than Squall). The only way I see Squall winning that match is if he legitimately puts up the numbers to show her up, meaning < 60% on Knux. If you're claiming Squall over Aeris without any math to back it up you're making a mistake.

'that's bad logic. Zidane is a lead FF character. Tidus too. Sora has proved to be stronger than both of them, and you can't even argue that."

It looks good in his favor for sure, but it's not actually proven yet.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

I'm not going to pretend to use numbers to back a Squall over Aeris pick, but using Knuckles data that has Squall beating him with 58% seems a little extreme, considering that he did after all just beat Magus. No way Magus plummets that much on his own. Knuckles 2k4 is not the same as this one now.

I wouldn't be surprised with no sff either, but we also haven't seen Aeris since 2k3, so it's not as if she couldn't have fallen in the meantime to make Squall the new favorite. It should be a good match either way, I wouldn't expect the winner to have more than 55%, and realistically speaking, by then Aeris would have the movie, but Squall would also have Kingdom Hearts II. So it should prove interesting.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

'Snake beat Aeris 56/44."

That was Aeris in 2k2, she rose dramatically in 2k3.

"Snake beat Knuckles 59/41."

That was Snake in 2k4, he dropped dramatically in 2k4.

With logic like that you can prove CATS > Link (I've seen it done), hell, if I used 2k4 Knux vs. Snake and 2k2 Squall vs Snake I can "prove" Knux > Squall. That said,
you cannot in all fairness compare over the years when we know for a fact that a character's strength changed that dramatically.

"Squall is beating Knuckles and let's call it 55/45"

That suggests a dramatic drop for Squall or a dramatic increase for Knux, actually. If it ends 55/45 I'm calling Vincent > Squall without question.

"Ergo Squall is the favourite."

Check some actual stats, man, Squall has never been the favorite over Aeris, period.

"Although you really don't need the stats to realise that Squall and Aeris are actually close in strength."

With people throwing around the logic you have, yes you do. You're calling Squall the favorite when the opposite is actually true, and you're using matches that we know for a certainty would have changed in the last couple of years.

"If she did beat him, it would certainly be close."

That's what the numbers say. It's too bad so many of you are so afraid of the Xstats. Really, once you learn how to use them properly they can save you a world of hurt (Tidus vs. Kirby, anybody?).

"but I don't think the voters are that one sided."

If there is absolutely 0 SFF in Aeris vs. Squall she wins, period.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

"Knuckles data that has Squall beating him with 58% seems a little extreme"

What, you mean you can't believe either his 2k3 OR his 2k4 number, then? 2k4 Knux shows Squall winning by 57.85, 2k3 Knux shows Squall winning by 58.8. You'd have to believe 2k2 Knux = 2k5 Knux to think that even 56.37% is a fair margin of victory for a static Squall.

You guys have actually looked at the Xstats, right? Please, please do (or do it again), because what I'm telling you is right there. Squall is predicted to beat Knuckles by ~58% if he's static from 2k3.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Ouch, another win for Knux. I don't think Squall will even finish at his projected strength.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/31/2005 11:12:45 AM | #180
With people throwing around the logic you have, yes you do. You're calling Squall the favorite when the opposite is actually true, and you're using matches that we know for a certainty would have changed in the last couple of years.

Sorry, next time I won't use comparisons between direct opponents. Let's think about what you're saying - for Squall to have a chance against Aeris, he has to beat Knuckles by a higher margin than Snake did? What kind of logic is that?

Aeris or Snake, who wins? Oh wait, we've seen that match already and Aeris was spoilered. You're only going to see a change in result between legitimately close opponents like Link/Cloud and Mario/Crono.

The only possible argument you could have for Aeris >>> Squall is that Aeris wins significant SFF, and that argument will be blown out of the water when Vincent fails to SFF Squall (because the board's darling Vincent, who can't win the board vote against Dante, is clearly the best character in the game and would do a better job of SFFing other FF characters than Aeris), and IMO it'll be Squall doing the SFFing.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

With logic like that you can prove CATS > Link (I've seen it done)

I'd like to see that. Lol, X-stats. I'm guessing it must involve Ganondorf, Sephiroth, and Cloud somehow.
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!

Why does the updater keep missing random updates sometimes?

The udpater needs to wait about, what, another three seconds for each update, I think; I would figure that would help.


As for today's match, looks like it's gone near-exactly like what I thought. Expect Knuckles to take a couple of updates with his day-vote (though not all that many) and bow out with 44%-45%.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

"Sorry, next time I won't use comparisons between direct opponents."

Don't get snippy with me, I'm really trying here to not start any sort of fight. Work with me, please.

You yourself pointed out that Squall vs. Snake 2k2 was a bad match to point to, right? We both know why, there was a huge change between those years that made Squall 2k3 > 2k3. That same influx of change went across the board and hit every Square character, meaning Aeris 2k3 is also > 2k2. Not to the same degree, mind you (she had less room with which to go up, after all) but more than enough to kee her above Squall. Again, it's right there in the Xstats if you don't believe me.

"for Squall to have a chance against Aeris, he has to beat Knuckles by a higher margin than Snake did? What kind of logic is that?"

Perfect logic if you consider that 2k4 Snake < 2k3 Snake and that 2k4 is only .2% better than 2k3 Aeris. Look at the stats, Aeris went up since Snake beat her and he went down during his last match with Knuckles. Hell, even if you won't believe the Xstats lets use the same idea you've been working with... in 2k4 Snake beat Knuc with ~60%, in 2k3 he beat Knuckles with 63%. In 2k4 MM beat him with over 57%, In 2k2 MM beat Snake with 53.5%. Seeing a trend here? not one but two characters had the pleasure of facing Snake twice in a row and both did better on him in 2k4 than 2k3. Snake dropped in 2k4, that's all there is to it, and he dropped to the level of Aeris who had risen since their last match.

"Aeris or Snake, who wins?"

2k3 Aeris vs. 2k4 Snake is too close to call. Ask anyone else that's a regular in this topic and they'll tell you Snake only has a slight edge.

"Oh wait, we've seen that match already and Aeris was spoilered. "

We also saw her increase in strength by over 7% in the very next contest. Are you missing something here, or are you unable to concieve of character's strengths changing from year to year? Really, do you think every rematch will end with the same result? How did Cloud beat Link? How did Crono beat Mario? Character strengths can change, Aeris is stronger than she was in 2k2, Snake was weaker in 2k4.

"The only possible argument you could have for Aeris >>> Squall is that Aeris wins significant SFF,"

Who said it was that far apart? We're talking about less than 2%, here. Again. There are Xstats, they have been around for years, they are available to the public, and they do come with explanations of how they work. www.sc2k5.com Visit that site, digest as much information as you can, then come back.

"and that argument will be blown out of the water when Vincent fails to SFF Squall"

Apparently, you are among so many who cannot seem to read what I type. I'll stats it again, I expect no SFF whatsoever between Aeris and Squall, and that still picks Aeris as the winner in a less than wire-to-wire match. I also expect 0 SFF between Vincent and Squall, which is Squall doesn't pick up his feet may in fact make for a wire-to-wire match.

"because the board's darling Vincent"

This is a sign of delusion, Vincent is not liked on the board. Heck, half of the people in this topic that were calling Vincent a threat to Crono are happy to see he's not (See: Slowflake). Just because somebody says that Vincent may be the second coming of christ doesn't mean they like him. cn thought he could pull of a miracle and he could care less about Vincent. Vincent got 24 nominations from this board, Kerrigan got 78. Cats got in the high 60s. Tifa hit the high 50's. 24 Characters had more nominations on this board than Vincent, and it'd be more so if we didn't game the system*. Vincent is by no means a board favorite, and he only has 3-4 vocal supporters in this topic.

"and would do a better job of SFFing other FF characters than Aeris"

Who ever said that? The only way that assumption could b made is if you were assuming Vincent > Aeris, and that's just logical if he was.

"IMO it'll be Squall doing the SFFing"

I don't believe in rSFF.

*Note: gaming the system, for those who don't know, means witholding votes from characters that would normally make our top 10 lists because they are either so popular they won't miss the contest (Link, Cloud etc) or they are so lacking in popularity that they won't make it in (Let's say... Umaro, just cause he came to mind)
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

"I'd like to see that. Lol, X-stats. I'm guessing it must involve Ganondorf, Sephiroth, and Cloud somehow."

Actually, it can be done exclussively with 2k2 and 2k3 stats. That's how far off 2k2 was, as a contest, to what all other contests have been like.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Excuse me, that should say Squall 2k3 > 2k2 in the response to the first quote.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Another clerical error:

"in 2k4 Snake beat Knuc with ~60%, in 2k3 he beat Knuckles with 63%. In 2k4 MM beat him with over 57%, In 2k2 MM beat Snake with 53.5%."

Shoudl read "In 2k4 Snake beat Knux ~60%, in 2k3 he beat him with 63%. In 2k4 MM beat him with over 57%, in 2k3 MM beat Snake with 53.5%"

It's late, I was gone for work from about 2 until about midnight, I'm tired.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

damn, Chichiri just quintuple-owned y'all.

I think everyone would take Sora over Zidane, and 99% would take Sora over Tidus. while comparing across years is a bad idea, Sora > Alucard > Kirby > Tidus. I think Kirby increased significantly this year and would take Kirby > Alucard in a second, but I highly doubt Kirby would own Sora like he did Tidus.

as for Aeris and Squall, I still point to the SFF example of Aeris vs. Sora. unless Sora dramatically increased the next year, Aeris SFFed him badly. if Aeris can own the main character of KH, why couldn't she do so to FF8? heck, Squall gained strength thanks to KH. I have faith that FF7 can SFF any Square game not named CT (and even that's in question), and Squall's included in that group. that's ignoring the fact that Aeris is already stronger x-stat wise and rSFF hasn't really been proven yet. either way, we'll know more after Squall/Vincent, since most people will concede at this point that Aeris is stronger than Vincent.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

"I think everyone would take Sora over Zidane"

Oh, no doubt, but we all took Magus over Knux too (barring Smurf). It's not a good pick by any means, but I'd hardly call it outright proven.

"and 99% would take Sora over Tidus."

I think at this point, on this board, it'd be pretty hard to find a Tidus backer in that match, yes. Of course, Kirby looked golden in that match, he is deffinately up. Until we know how much and can prove that Sora isn't static it still carries some risk.

"while comparing across years is a bad idea, Sora > Alucard > Kirby > Tidus."

While I'd love to see Alucard > Tidus I'm certain Kirby is up a lot. I'd take him over Alucard in a rematch, even if we're talking Alucard based on 2k3 Ganon (2k3 Alucard doesn't make Sora look impressive at all).
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Oh, and I just can't type this late at, er, morning.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

Knux is cutting down Squall's ability to gain, and he's doing so fairly well considering the strength deficit he seems to be at. If we're lucky he'll take the day by storm and make it interesting (too bad I'll be at work for what would then be the best part).
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.

If we're lucky he'll take the day by storm and make it interesting

Here's to hopin'; I'd love to see Knuckles make a comeback like that.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I don't get it.Only 1 in 4 people had Vincent winning?How is that possible?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Between Dante's contest exposure, having a new game, and being a 1-seed...I'm not all THAT surprised. I still thought Vincent would have more than that though; imagine the brackets wrecked if Vincent takes the division, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I missed my nightly prediction guess, but I had 35-40% in my head. 25% isn't that insane, but it's extremely low. it seems board 8 understands that FF7 wins everything better than the casuals do.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Heh: Vincent always wins his matches with exact percentages.