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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 227
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:14:14 AM | Message Detail
Also, isn't Squall not as bad during the day as Magus is?

He's also not as good during the night so it even things out.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:15:01 AM | Message Detail
Squall isn't anywhere near as favored on the board as Magus is, and Squall is miles better with the day vote than Magus is.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:15:33 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
51-----2--------0.0000000
50-----9--------22.2222222
49-----72-------31.9444444
48-----237------24.8945148
47-----559------31.1270125
46-----909------26.6226623
45-----1338-----27.2047833
44-----1682-----24.3757432
43-----1963-----21.4977076
42-----2252-----23.1349911
41-----2373-----23.6409608
40-----2412-----23.4245439
39-----2352-----22.7040816
38-----2286-----24.1032371
37-----2206-----24.3880326
36-----1962-----24.6177370
35-----1711-----26.4757452
34-----1535-----27.1009772
33-----1298-----28.7365177
32-----1204-----25.8305648
31-----1007-----26.9116187
30-----837------26.2843489
29-----701------27.5320970
28-----609------31.8555008
27-----489------30.8793456
26-----374------28.6096257
25-----293------27.6450512
24-----239------29.7071130
23-----176------35.2272727
22-----128------29.6875000
21-----104------32.6923077
20-----73-------27.3972603
19-----59-------25.4237288
18-----43-------23.2558140
17-----22-------22.7272727
16-----12-------8.3333333
15-----8--------25.0000000
14-----5--------20.0000000
13-----5--------60.0000000
12-----2--------0.0000000
11-----1--------0.0000000
10-----8--------25.0000000
9------9--------33.3333333
8------23-------8.6956522
7------27-------3.7037037
6------39-------7.6923077
5------45-------4.4444444
4------48-------2.0833333

Everybody with a score of 3 or lower got the match wrong.

What in the world happened today? Abysmal showing across the board. The -1s were annihilated, the -2s were decimated, and relatively good showing by the -3s then just downhill from there.

36 people fell off the Top 50 today. donutboi, Darren1986, Quillus, kittyeatingatac, Littleleary8, KingBroly, checkerboard, AiShinosaki, Confidentiality, JackFrost187, Ndolger, lightspear, TSA_ZHQ, heighlylikely, ThePinkFloyd, Dark_Side_Taker, big_ritt, Freakohollik, brian577, Paulie_Gatto, link2k1, vikings2008, NCPunx1023, Eric48x, stardust462, McClellandD, ultimategoy, UpUrAssBaby, J_A_C_K, Shinigami_Duo, cityhuntr, Tork_110, Photekkian, RudeAnimat0r, chaoscontrol1 and Cloud9681 did not have Vincent winning the match today.

MHSWrestler, Omnipotent_user and ClockworkDragon didn't have Vincent wining either but remain on the Top 50 as -3s and -4.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:15:43 AM | Message Detail
Only 14 there.

It's not over yet!

*waves Go Knux flag*
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: transience | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:15:50 AM | Message Detail
you could put me in a poll against a CT character and I'd win the day vote.

Knuckles is giving Squall a good fight here. let's hope he stays close enough for the day vote.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:16:18 AM | Message Detail
Wow, foot in mouth there. Heh. I still think Squall will finish the night around 55%.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:16:41 AM | Message Detail
No, let's not. Squall > Knuckles > Magus.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:17:46 AM | Message Detail
Let's hope Knuckles is winning before the morning vote.

...Let me dream.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:18:31 AM | Message Detail
Oh come on Knux baby.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: Jericoholic | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:18:45 AM | Message Detail
Actually looking between all of Knuckles opponents, (Magus, Solid Snake, Kefka, Yuna, and Akira), not one of them looks good with the day vote, save Yuna. How much did he swing the percentage on that, because everyone else on that last is horrid when the sun rises.

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
From: chaos knight | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:18:48 AM | Message Detail
It would be kind of funny if Knuckles actually won with a higher % against Squall than he did Magus.

Of course, that is assuming *waaaaaay* too much right now. I'll just be content if the echidna can keep it close until the morning hours.
---
[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right.
LBSJ
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:20:21 AM | Message Detail
Wrong direction there, Knuxy.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:20:31 AM | Message Detail
Wow.

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:20:32 AM | Message Detail
Good gain for Squall.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:20:41 AM | Message Detail
Squall just added 52 more votes to his lead. Go Squall!
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:25:04 AM | Message Detail
At 2:45 was Magus' largest lead at 639 (he kept above 600 for 45 min.) before Knuckles made a 3357 vote swing, Magus' then moved on to comeback by 1000 votes.

I know Knuckles' vote swing and Squall's comeback won't be that large, but I'm just saying.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:25:35 AM | Message Detail
Knuckles won't come back :(
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:25:37 AM | Message Detail
Not good...

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:25:37 AM | Message Detail
Yikes... off to bed I go, hopefully I wake up and cream my pants.

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:25:51 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, this whole Knuckles is the day vote god thing might just be hype. Master Chief is the true Master of the day vote.

Yeah, Squall should finish the night at 55%ish, the non first five minute updates tell the story, really.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:26:23 AM | Message Detail
Squall Leonhart > Knuckes > Magus.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:27:58 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, this whole Knuckles is the day vote god thing might just be hype. Master Chief is the true Master of the day vote.

Hey Knuckles is right up there with Master Chief and Samus.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: chaos knight | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:29:56 AM | Message Detail
Until Knuckles is losing by over 1000 will I then lose hope.
---
[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right.
LBSJ
From: Jericoholic | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:31:41 AM | Message Detail
Already 1/5 of the way there...

---
I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:32:13 AM | Message Detail
44 vote gain by Squall

Squall is still behind Magus and even though Magus is stronger with the night vote, Knux's lead is still more than enough to overcome Squall.

*goes to sleep*
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:36:16 AM | Message Detail
53 more for Squall. Keep it up, big boy!
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:38:05 AM | Message Detail
Jericoholic's point seems pretty solid, though. How many opponents has Knuckles faced that you'd expect to do anything with the day?

Master Chief swung 3000 votes against Frog, and then against Donkey Kong. He got about 10% more in the day than in the night. Oftentimes more. Whereas Knuckles only turns the vote by about 5%. (I love the % of update feature on SC2K5... makes it easier to recognize these things)

I'm now pretty confident when I say that Knuckles will finish with less than Kirby did.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:44:34 AM | Message Detail
I doubt it. This will end up with around 53-54% in Squall's favour.

I hope it doesn't. Go Knux!
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:47:40 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, we seem to be missing Knuckles/Magus data for 00:45 and 00:50. In any case, Magus started out stronger for the first 10-15 minutes, but now Squall has caught up to him. Look for Squall to build a larger lead than Magus did, and look for him to keep it for much longer, hopefully the entire match.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:50:05 AM | Message Detail
"I doubt it. This will end up with around 53-54% in Squall's favour."

Even if that's the best case scenario that makes Vincent still look scary to Squall.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: transience | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:51:18 AM | Message Detail
question of the day: Dante or Knuckles?
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:52:09 AM | Message Detail
That's a tough one. I'm going to say Knuckles, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:53:08 AM | Message Detail
Dante, though after what I've seen not by much unless Dante really has gone up since last year.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:54:05 AM | Message Detail
Bold prediction a. "Vincent will beat Squall by more than he did Dante".
Bold prediction b. "Knuckles will finish with less than Kirby did"
Bold prediction c. "Knuckles will not decisively/consistently win any updates during the day, Squall has nothing to worry about"

How many will be true? Find out today/tomorrow/in a couple of weeks.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:54:21 AM | Message Detail
I would take Knux over Dante.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:54:30 AM | Message Detail
Trust me, this is very much in reach for Knuckles.

If he can prevent Squall from breaking 700 or so, Knux will crucify him come the day vote.

---
Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:55:03 AM | Message Detail
None. Squall will win with 52-53%, but Knuckles will chip away at the lead during the day.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: transience | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:55:31 AM | Message Detail
this is looking like 54-46, 55-45 Squall. if it stays that way, whichever of the two is stronger would make their round 2 opponent the favourite, before SFF and all that good stuff.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:56:14 AM | Message Detail
And with that 62 vote gain, I am off to sleep. Hopefully Squall will still have a sizable lead in the morning.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:56:24 AM | Message Detail
If he can prevent Squall from breaking 700 or so, Knux will crucify him come the day vote.

He has almost 440 over him at the moment. :P

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:56:35 AM | Message Detail
How about Magus is still as high as ever, Knuckles increased because he felt like it, and Squall is going to beat Crono?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:58:21 AM | Message Detail
How about Magus is still as high as ever, Knuckles increased because he felt like it, and Squall is going to beat Crono?

I would die out of happiness. Sadly, Squall won't beat Crono. :(

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/31/2005 12:58:54 AM | Message Detail
Squall has this. Looks like he might even get 56%-57% before the day vote. He might lose 2-4 points during the day, but he's not exactly bad with the day vote. I'd say he's average with the day vote.

I'd have to take Dante over Knuckles; both might have increased, but Dante has been above Knuckles the past two years. But while I'd take Dante, I wouldn't be overly confident in him. One of those "the better choice is clear, but there's a lot of volatility" situations.

Vincent vs. Squall is looking to be a hotly debated match. I think the expectations will be about as even as you can get.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/31/2005 1:00:36 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't be surprised if Knuckles didn't even win any updates in the day with these huge updates Squall is getting.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: transience | Posted: 8/31/2005 1:00:58 AM | Message Detail
Knuckles is getting rocked now to the tune of 60+% over the last 10 minutes. this thing may get out of hand.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/31/2005 1:01:31 AM | Message Detail
Almost a 500 lead for Squall. I'm going to bed now.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/31/2005 1:02:13 AM | Message Detail
Dante has been above Knuckles the past two years.

So has Magus.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: creativename | Posted: 8/31/2005 1:03:33 AM | Message Detail
I don't see much reason to doubt that Dante would've beat Knuckles the past two years, and I doubt you do either. You're just saying that for the sake of argument ;)
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 8/31/2005 1:16:06 AM | Message Detail
Interesting to note that in the Kirby match, Squall had 55.36% about 1:15 in (though he's gaining more rapidly here). He stabilized around his peak of around 57+% from 3 to 5 hours in, before finishing with 55%.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/31/2005 1:18:34 AM | Message Detail
I was just going to bring that up... seriously. Heh heh.

Kirby > Knuckles doesn't seem farfetched right now. It all depends on which is better with the day... and despite Knuckles rep of "day vote god", I'd guess Kirby's is probably better.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
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