He does have a passing resemblance to Vegeta in the sense that all Toriyama works look like SOMETHING. But it's not something a rational person would look at and think of right off-hand.

Magus's "DBZ clone" is DaiKaiousama, which is less influential being later in the series and not being a big character overall.

Besides, I doubt the whole DBZ thing really makes that much of a difference. Crono is a deadringer, and I doubt he's getting more than a % or 2. The others shouldn't be benefiting at all with their lesser margin.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

And consider this: Are any of the people comparing Magus to Vegeta people who would vote for him based on this?
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The Power is Yours.

Kaioushin, my bad. It HAS been like, 10 years.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Man, this match is gonna turn out like Tidus/Shadow...
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/54 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Squall Leonhart

What...? This match is nothing like Tidus/Shadow. Squall had this wrapped up a long time ago.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Because the voting pool shifted hugely in the last few months, and because Pac Man isn't nearly as weak as the stats would have him. In 2003, he was decimated by Kefka SFF. In 2004, he was crushed by a Luigi overperformance.


Ah, but you're forgetting that Pac-Man overperformed on Kefka because he had the brackets on his side, and Ocelot underperformed on Bowser for the opposite reason. Since Ocelot > Kefka (a Kefka who overperformed because of the brackets, mind you), and Kefka > Pac-Man, this series of matches should widen the gap between the two even further...unless you're arguing that Ocelot suffered a big drop in the past 2 months (really big, because of all those bracket over/underperformances) and Pac-Man had a similar increase over the past 2 years? This is all assuming that Kefka has remained constant from 2k3 to 2k5 as well, and many believe that he's increased since then, which would widen the gap even further. No, I think that Ocelot losing to Pac-Man is much more realistic if you believe bracket-voting make no difference.

I really don't understand this... if this were the case there would be no such thing as an upset, because everyone would pick the more popular character. What evidence is there that bracketmakers go with their favorite?

96% of people think Cloud will beat Vyse. 82% of people like Cloud more than Vyse. That means that 82% of those 96% like Cloud more than Vyse. Get it?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/31/2005 4:02:51 PM | Message Detail
This hath been archived, so when Squall beats Vincent easily,

Going to laugh at yourself after the match? =p

Nono, and not going to 'rub it in' either. Just merely going to have it around to reference.

From: creativename | Posted: 8/31/2005 4:02:35 PM | Message Detail

As for these hero/sidekick/villain hypotheses, they come up often in this topic, and they've pretty much always proved wrong in the past.

To hell it doesn't. That is the only reason Tidus beat Shadow, kept it so close with Ganon, and Dante 'overperformed' on Vincent. Heroes are liked more than villains and sidekicks, and when they face villains and sidekicks, they receive votes they otherwise would not get, thus screwing up transitivity. I will take this belief to the grave, too.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 49/56 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

Such a simple analysis is extremely flawed, especially because it ignores the conditional probability that people will tend to pick with their bias in their brackets to begin with.

We do have much evidence against the impact of bracket voting (e.g., all the cases where the character with far less bracket support wins, like Vincent), and perhaps I'm drawing a blank, but I can't think of any in favor of it. Outside of pure speculative logic.

And in truly close matches, anything can make a difference, so there's not much utility in bringing those up.

How is that flawed? Are you denying that people don't bracket vote when we've had plenty of people just on this board admit that they do? Even if only 10% of the bracket voters do as such, it still can account for a few thousand voters.

What does Vincent and people with less bracket support winning have to do with that? I never said that bracket voters sway the outcome of the match... I said it can have an impact on the results, meaning percentages. Not a HUGE swing in percentages, but maybe 2-3% And in this topic we tend to pay attention to the percentages. There's no way we can know if it really had an effect on the match... it's ALL purely speculation, on both sides.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Ah, but you're forgetting that Pac-Man overperformed on Kefka because he had the brackets on his side, and Ocelot underperformed on Bowser for the opposite reason.

Pac Man vs Kefka was pretty much even IIRC, so even if Pac Man overperformed it would have been by very little. Ocelot didn't underperform much on Bowser considering that it was such a slaughter that bracketvoters didn't matter.

Since Ocelot > Kefka (a Kefka who overperformed because of the brackets, mind you), and Kefka > Pac-Man, this series of matches should widen the gap between the two even further...unless you're arguing that Ocelot suffered a big drop in the past 2 months (really big, because of all those bracket over/underperformances) and Pac-Man had a similar increase over the past 2 years?

Did you totally forget that Kefka was underrated in 2003? Yes, I think that Ocelot has dropped (mind you, he wasn't underrated with that big a blowout).

This is all assuming that Kefka has remained constant from 2k3 to 2k5 as well, and many believe that he's increased since then, which would widen the gap even further.

And you ignore that Pac Man himself has risen during this time thanks to changes in the voting population.

No, I think that Ocelot losing to Pac-Man is much more realistic if you believe bracket-voting make no difference.

That match and Knuckles vs Magus have very similar parallels. (Ignore that redundancy >_>)
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The Power is Yours.

96% of people think Cloud will beat Vyse. 82% of people like Cloud more than Vyse. That means that 82% of those 96% like Cloud more than Vyse. Get it?

No, because you're assuming that the average bracketmaker is the same as the average voter. Which while possible, is highly unlikely.
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The Power is Yours.

Tnote: Would you still take Frog over Magus? ;)

Thereal: You are awesome. >_>
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The Power is Yours.

To hell it doesn't. That is the only reason Tidus beat Shadow, kept it so close with Ganon, and Dante 'overperformed' on Vincent. Heroes are liked more than villains and sidekicks, and when they face villains and sidekicks, they receive votes they otherwise would not get, thus screwing up transitivity. I will take this belief to the grave, too.

Are you serious? Are you trying to tell me that people look at a match like Tidus/Shadow and say "Hmmm... I would normally vote for Shadow", but he isn't a main character and he's up against Tidus, who is a main character, so I'll vote for Tidus"? No offense, but I think that's ridiculous. How popular a character is because of his role in a game is part of that character's intrinsic strength. It wouldn't affect a character in different ways from match to match...

It would only matter with characters from the same game... But for it to matter ACROSS games and series?? I don't believe that for a second.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

That's not necessarily how it would work. Main characters are more likely to be liked more (as in, higher up on people's favorites list) than side characters, for the most part. That would screw up linearity in some instances. There are some exceptions, of course.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Tidus/Shadow is a horrible match to base that on though since Tidus has quite clearly proven that the FFX fanbase hates him.

From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/31/2005 5:20:21 PM | Message Detail
Tnote: Would you still take Frog over Magus? ;)

In a heartbeat. Good sidekicks>Quasi-evil sidekicks

everything typed by therealmnm

What I am saying is that there are lots of people out there who like lots of characters a lot. There is probably a group of 10-15 characters in the tourney that I like a lot myself. And while I would vote Frog and Vercetti over everyone else without thinking twice, after that it gets really murky if the other 8-13 face eachother. In the end, I almost always go with the character who I was closer with, who is always the more developed character, which is almost always a lead protagonist. And as is the case with many, many 'trends' thrown around that I believe matter that others do not, I find it very difficult to believe I am in a statistically insignificant group that votes heroes>villains and sidekicks when they fall close to one another on one's favorites list.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 49/56 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

Speaking of Tidus/Shadow, would anyone take Shadow in a rematch, now that we've seen Kirby decimate him? I would still take Tidus, since I attribute most of the match to a Kirby increase.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

And to add on to that, it is not necessarily just favorites. It applies when someone is indifferent to both characters, and also in cases where the voter despises both characters (assuming they even bother to vote). Today is a perfect example for me. I have never played a game with Knuckles, and really have not liked what I have seen of FFVIII. However, I still voted for Squall, simply because I know more about him, even if what I know is not terribly positive.

Anyone in FFVIII: But Squall, the world will be raped and pillaged if you don't stop acting angsty!!!!

Squall: ...whatever.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 49/56 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

You rox. I would take Frog over Magus too, for no other reason than because it is the cool thing to do. =D
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Quistis has more angst than Squall does...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I'd still take Tidus, BTW. No real justification I can think of.
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The Power is Yours.

To hell it doesn't. That is the only reason Tidus beat Shadow, kept it so close with Ganon, and Dante 'overperformed' on Vincent. Heroes are liked more than villains and sidekicks, and when they face villains and sidekicks, they receive votes they otherwise would not get, thus screwing up transitivity. I will take this belief to the grave, too.


*does the Mega Man vs. Zero dance*

Did you totally forget that Kefka was underrated in 2003? Yes, I think that Ocelot has dropped (mind you, he wasn't underrated with that big a blowout).

I was talking about Spring Kefka. Obviously.

That match and Knuckles vs Magus have very similar parallels. (Ignore that redundancy >_>)

That they do. Both of them disprove bracket-voting.

No, because you're assuming that the average bracketmaker is the same as the average voter. Which while possible, is highly unlikely.

W...T...F??? This makes sense then everything else you've said put together! WHY THE **** would bracket-makers have different opinions from everyone else? Please don't tell me it's because bracket-makers are smarter than the average voter, because I'll point you right at Magus 2k3, Master Chief at any time, Mega Man 2k4, Tommy at any time, Scorpion 2k3, etc.

In a heartbeat. Good sidekicks>Quasi-evil sidekicks

Would you still take Auron over Ganon? Or how about Zelda over Ganon?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

funny, I've never played a game with Knuckles, but voted for Knuckles because I've played FF8.

of course, if I made a favourites bracket, I'd have about 7 points right now. go Yuri!

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http://picturesofwalls.com

Ganondorf =/= Quasi-evil sidekick
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Quasi-Evil Sidekicks > Good sidekicks when they're the fan favorite dammit.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

I have already said I would take Zelda over Ganon when the question was posed a few topics ago.

And when I said 'good'>'evil' I was just being an ass. Clearly Magus would defeat Tails, and a number of other 'good' sidekicks. However, in that particular case, I still hold firm to Frog>Magus, and pray one of these contests I get to see it, if only to see two gurus pick the uber upset =)

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 49/56 (Kefka, Magus (x2), Ocelot, Tidus)

Well, congrats to Leonhart for watching his favorite character do well! I know I was overjoyed to see Snake get almost 55% on Zelda.

And I'll be voting for Squall against Vincent.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/54 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Squall Leonhart

I was talking about Spring Kefka. Obviously.

Kefka and Pac Man are not joined by the hip because of a round one match in 2003.

That they do. Both of them disprove bracket-voting.

Yes, in a sense they do. But far more important than bracket-voting is the shift in voter population and the appeal based on the pic.

W...T...F??? This makes sense then everything else you've said put together!

And... this statement makes no sense whatsoever. x_x

WHY THE **** would bracket-makers have different opinions from everyone else? Please don't tell me it's because bracket-makers are smarter than the average voter, because I'll point you right at Magus 2k3, Master Chief at any time, Mega Man 2k4, Tommy at any time, Scorpion 2k3, etc.

If we take this board as a sampling of bracketmakers, I'd say that our tastes are a good chunk different from the site in general. Why is that? I don't know. But there is no doubt that bracketmakers are more attentive to the site and to some extent more dedicated. What this reflects of their taste? I don't know. But it is foolish to assume that any sampling of people will have the same tastes.
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The Power is Yours.

Squall's not doing as well as I would've liked. I was hoping he'd get 55-56% so I'd feel good about him beating Vincent next round.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

What was that you were saying about 56% yesterday? HUH? HUH?

OMG LOL PWNT!!!1
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The Power is Yours.

It's still likely if the SFF favors Squall.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/54 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Squall Leonhart

Meh, at least I wasn't as far off as those who called 60% for Vincent.

Well, Squall could end up close to 55% if he gets a good night vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Meh, at least I wasn't as far off as those who called 60% for Vincent.

>_________>
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The Power is Yours.

And when I said 'good'>'evil' I was just being an ass. Clearly Magus would defeat Tails, and a number of other 'good' sidekicks. However, in that particular case, I still hold firm to Frog>Magus, and pray one of these contests I get to see it, if only to see two gurus pick the uber upset =)


Yeah, but you still haven't told me who you'd take in Auron vs. Ganon, and I'm so eagerly anticipating your response.

Kefka and Pac Man are not joined by the hip because of a round one match in 2003.

Then let me explain it to you: Spring 2k5 Kefka > Kefka 2k3 > Pac-Man 2k3. Understand?

Yes, in a sense they do. But far more important than bracket-voting is the shift in voter population and the appeal based on the pic.

*singing* Ocelot got the same pic in both of the matches he lost.

If we take this board as a sampling of bracketmakers, I'd say that our tastes are a good chunk different from the site in general.

The typical bracket-maker thinks that Master Chief is as strong as Samus, and Crono vs. Kefka would be pretty iffy. The board clearly differs.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

It's still likely if the SFF favors Squall.

It's still likely that there won't be any SFF. Why would there be SFF in this match but not in Yoshi vs. Bowser, or Bowser vs. Luigi, or Cloud vs. Sephiroth, or Link vs. Samus? I really don't get it at all...especially if you're presenting an rSFF argument. Or if you're arguing a Heroes > the rest argument, in which case, I'm throwing Zero vs. Mega Man in your face.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Or if you're arguing a Heroes > the rest argument, in which case, I'm throwing Zero vs. Mega Man in your face.

I'm not arguing that since Auron would most assuredly beat Tidus in a direct match (possibly even SFF him).
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/54 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Squall Leonhart

But Zero is a hero, too. He's not your average sidekick. He's more like Auron.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Yeah, but you still haven't told me who you'd take in Auron vs. Ganon, and I'm so eagerly anticipating your response.
Erm... Ganon is the main villain. I know it's not my argument, just saying...

Then let me explain it to you: Spring 2k5 Kefka > Kefka 2k3 > Pac-Man 2k3. Understand?
Spring 2005 Kefka isn't necessarily stronger than Kefka 2003, but I'll definitely accept Sp2k5 Kefka > SC2K3 Pac and SC2K3 Kefka > SC2K3 Pac.

*singing* Ocelot got the same pic in both of the matches he lost.
Yes, and Ocelot's pic appeals less to the new crowd than to the old crowd. The change in the voter population means that different pics are favored.

The typical bracket-maker thinks that Master Chief is as strong as Samus, and Crono vs. Kefka would be pretty iffy. The board clearly differs.
Nice exaggerations. Unfortunately, they pretty much invalidate what you're saying. Put Master Chief against Samus and we'll see if he breaks a 40% prediction percentage. Crono had 61% taking him out of his fourpack, which included Vercetti as well as Kefka.
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The Power is Yours.

As much as we make fun of master chief's high prediction percentages, at least with this contest, they have been right.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

As much as we make fun of master chief's high prediction percentages, at least with this contest, they have been right.

100% of gurus had the Chief over DK. I'm not really seeing what your point is.

Yes, and Ocelot's pic appeals less to the new crowd than to the old crowd. The change in the voter population means that different pics are favored.


But why would there be such a huge shift in 3 months? Bowser, Zelda, and Ganon's shifts took 2 years, unless you're arguing that SC2k5 Bowser >>> SpC2k5 Bowser?

Nice exaggerations. Unfortunately, they pretty much invalidate what you're saying. Put Master Chief against Samus and we'll see if he breaks a 40% prediction percentage. Crono had 61% taking him out of his fourpack, which included Vercetti as well as Kefka.

You want other matches? As I mentioned before, there's Zero vs. Scorpion, Kefka vs. Knuckles, Mega Man vs. Snake 2k4, etc. The board and the casuals are clearly not the same.

And I would expect a >40 prediction percentage for MC against Samus. She's been ridiculously underrated on the leaderboard, and he's been ridiculously overrated.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

If it weren't for the x stats everyone on the board would probably be in the top 50 right now, especially after Crono gets finished ruining all of the newbies brackets.

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Can't think of a good sig.

From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/31/2005 3:53:41 PM | Message Detail
As much as we make fun of master chief's high prediction percentages, at least with this contest, they have been right.

It'll be funny when Crono beats Master Chief. I honestly don't think Crono will be the bracket favorite to get out of the division, especially after looking at Crono's abysmal prediction percentage against Vercetti.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/54 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Squall Leonhart

And I would expect a >40 prediction percentage for MC against Samus. She's been ridiculously underrated on the leaderboard, and he's been ridiculously overrated.

So you expect more than 40% of the brackets to have MC winning the contest?
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart

If you picked solely on the stats, you'd have missed a grand total of three matches. Of course, having Magus likely taking the division based on them would mess most up, but still. You could've banked on Vincent winning the division and be in good shape regardless.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Well now that Knuckles is bowing out of this contest, I must turn my attention to my other three favorites....

Go Zero! Go Sonic! Go Bowser!
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

But why would there be such a huge shift in 3 months? Bowser, Zelda, and Ganon's shifts took 2 years, unless you're arguing that SC2k5 Bowser >>> SpC2k5 Bowser?

I wasn't talkign about any of those characters in particular... but if you noticed, SC2K5 has drawn around 125% of the voters on average since the spring. That's gotta mean something, and in this case I think that the characters with brightly-colored pics have benefited greatly.

You want other matches? As I mentioned before, there's Zero vs. Scorpion, Kefka vs. Knuckles, Mega Man vs. Snake 2k4, etc. The board and the casuals are clearly not the same.

No, I don't want other matches. You pretty much have shown that no group of people is perfect. But that doesn't change the fact that the bracketmakers could very well have different taste than the general site.

As for those matches... Zero was untested. He was facing Scorpion, an Elite Eight member. Kefka vs Knuckles to an outsider looked fairly even. A ****ing Final Fantasy character who was SFFed by Crono vs a Sonic loser who was kicked out by Solid Snake with 63% twice. Mega Man vs Snake was foolish, admittedly, though there were a few new characters on Snake's side of the field anyway.

And I would expect a >40 prediction percentage for MC against Samus. She's been ridiculously underrated on the leaderboard, and he's been ridiculously overrated.

Should the chance arise, I'd gladly take you up for a bet. Unfortunately, that won't happen until at least next summer.
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The Power is Yours.

Anyway, I probably can't continue this debate into the next topic. I've got reading. Later, though.

CRONO FOR SC2K5!
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The Power is Yours.

Squall >Vincent

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.

Damn.

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.

Actually...

Crono > Squall > Vincent.
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The Power is Yours.

Squall's got it, baby.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna