Heh, I find it hard to believe there are that many Sephiroth fans that AREN'T Cloud fans at all... especially enough to anti-vote Cloud. Cloud and Sephiroth fanbase AREN'T separate no matter WHAT you may think. It's just that they are split down the middle in terms of who they prefer.

Yeah, it's very surprising that sephiroth actually held his own on cloud in 2k3. The only other time I can recall somethng like that happening is megaman vs. zero, and he has his own series to fall back on (and a damned good one at that).
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You know, I really wouldn't be surprised if Squall was the statistical favorite to win his four pack (or even if he had more than 50% picking him). He had the highest percentage in the entire division, and 35% thought Knuckles could beat Magus.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I've been saying that for ages: that Knux has a serious chance of pulling off a second upset in a row. He did edge out Magus so the possibility remains.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/30/2005 9:58:44 PM
"Look at the number of people who visit the GTA boards compared to Earthbound. Also, look at how high GTA:SA is on the Top 50 FAQ list."

*cough*SSBM*cough*

Fine. Compare God of War and Castlevania:SotN.

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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

I would expect Squall to be the statistical favourite - he's from an FF title that's well-known and he's the seeding favourite. he may not be over 50%, but he'll have the highest number of the four.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

As much as I WISH for the upset to happen, there's just no chance of it, seriously.

And it being a nailbiter? What?

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Squall was the favorite to take the division either.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Heh, I find it hard to believe there are that many Sephiroth fans that AREN'T Cloud fans at all... especially enough to anti-vote Cloud. Cloud and Sephiroth fanbase AREN'T separate no matter WHAT you may think. It's just that they are split down the middle in terms of who they prefer.

Well, I'm not talking about a massive underperformance by Cloud, probably about 1.5-2.5%.

And here's what makes me think that way:
1. KOS-MOS dropped like mad.
2. Even if you use Sp2k5 Bowser, Ryu still underperformed.
3. Sonic doesn't look too hot in his match against Jin.
4. Samus got 70% on Frog, while Seph got 75% on LS, and we know that Frog >= LS by a very tiny bit.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Heh, Dante just won an update by 1 vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

OMG t3h c0m3back!
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Knuckles the Echidna's Road to SC2K5 Glory!
Round 2: vs. (2) Squall Leonhart

4. Samus got 70% on Frog, while Seph got 75% on LS, and we know that Frog >= LS by a very tiny bit.

I'm still a firm believer that Sephiroth overperformed on Liquid. Pac-Man doesn't beat Liquid, Frog, or Master Chief. Not on your life.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Heh, Dante just won an update by 1 vote.

He won quite a few early in the morning, Vincent is sadly over-rated.

Unless Squall managed to choke against Knux, he's the clear favorite to clear this division.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I think Ocelot overperformed on Bowser as well. I could not see Pac-Man with 34% on Bowser.
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Knuckles the Echidna's Road to SC2K5 Glory!
Round 2: vs. (2) Squall Leonhart

3. Sonic doesn't look too hot in his match against Jin.

Please don't tell me some people are still trying to judge characters based on matches with other characters who have a completely unknown strength.
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I think Squall bracket prediction will be lower than Vincent's. He may pull out with 45% of the brackets, but I think Vincent should have over half of the brackets.
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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.

Over half taking the division? He'll be lucky if he has half getting to the finals.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

yeah, I've got Vincent with less than half the brackets. Dante should have the bracket edge, especially considering he got like 88% on Terra.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

I'm still a firm believer that Sephiroth overperformed on Liquid. Pac-Man doesn't beat Liquid, Frog, or Master Chief. Not on your life.

Well, I brushed off Ganon and Bowser's performances against Seph as underperformances by Seph, but they seemed to be legitimate so far.

What are the chances of Seph's performance against LS being wrong?

Besides, pac did beat Ocelot, and MC (post Halo 2) underperformed on DK, who himself unperformed on Fisher.

Pac over Frog certainly feels dead wrong, but so did Knux over Magus.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Just because Ganon and Bowser were legit doesn't mean Liquid HAS to be, you know.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Please don't tell me some people are still trying to judge characters based on matches with other characters who have a completely unknown strength.

He was projected to get 80%+ on Kazuya, another Tekken char, one arguably as prominent/important as Jin.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Devil Division Round 2 - Match 44 – (6)Knuckles vs. (2)Squall

Knuckles - He’s like the little Echidna who could!
Round 1 – vs. Magus (Knuckles: 50.86% - Magus: 49.14%)

In the upset no one on the board predicted, Knuckles…manages to beat Magus.

Squall - I bet the thought of facing Knuckles put a few more scars on his arms.
Round 1 – vs. Geno (Squall: 74.84% - Geno: 25.16%)

Squall fails to triple Geno, but he still wins the match, and that’s what’s important.

Well, I certainly wasn’t expecting this. Hoping for it, but not expecting it. Let’s get down to business.

Well, this sure is strange. I was expecting to write an analysis trying to explain why Magus would beat Squall, but now I’m going to have to write about Knuckles facing Squall…oh boy. Well, first let’s look at past Contest history for the two.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955 – Snake/Squall
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=979 – Snake/Knux

Pretty easy to see who was stronger in 2002. Squall lost to Snake with 34.57%, while Knuckles did about 5% better. But 2002 results mean little in 2005, let’s go to 2003. In 2003, Squall, along with other FF characters, jumped up to new strengths for no reason (except maybe higher vote totals) at all. Squall gets past Jill, then beats Luigi by MORE than he beat Jill by, and then loses to Samus with 41%. Knuckles also gets stuck against a stronger Snake in 2003, and gets 37% on him. With Mega Man bombing to Seph, Knuckles value is hurt, and he ends up 5% behind Squall in the stats. In 2004, Squall gets to the Sweet 16 again, only to get SFFed by Cloud, while Knuckles does the best he has ever done on Snake, gathering up over 40% on the vote on him. It turns out though that Snake dropped in strength that year, but Link/Mega screws a lot up.

So where does this put them in the Un-Adjusted 2004 stats? Squall at 24.58%, and Knuckles at 24.07%. Pretty close, eh? This match wouldn’t be as heavily disputed if it weren’t for one thing: Knuckles beat Magus. No matter how you twist, turn, or shake it, that is darn impressive. Only 1/3rd of the brackets had that crazy upset, and no one on the board saw it coming. Some call it the biggest upset since Squall/Luigi. Most Magus brackets are now backing Knuckles to ruin this division, while the Squall fans have actually gotten more confident. This is going to be one interesting match.

In short, Knuckles was stronger in 2002, but Squall ranked higher in 2003 and 2004. If you believe Squall suffered SFF against Cloud, and that Magus was extremely overrated, then Squall should win. If you think there was no SFF in Cloud/Squall, and Knuckles beat the Noble Nine contender Magus, then Knuckles is looking good to pull of another upset. Squall has the statistical advantage, but then again, the stats have failed us many times so far this Contest. So, even though I’m rooting for the Echinda to win this, I’m…*gulp*…predicting Squall. Oh God it hurts.
Squall will win.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Let me die!

Moltar’s Prediction is: Knuckles: 48% - Squall: 52%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: I'm either getting married or on my honeymoon as you're reading this, so know that all of my second round writeups will suck. I'm doing the same short writeups that I did for the last round, because I don't have time to be extensive.)

(Special note from Moltar: Knuckles > Magus!)


I'm picking Knuckles to win this, but for the sole fact that it would be hilarious to see him pull of two stunning upsets in a row.

Prediction: Knuckles with 50.89%

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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Dante vs. Vincent - Bracket: Vincent - Vote: Vincent (46/52)

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Soul’s Analysis

How they got here

Knuckles defeated Magus: 50.86% - 49.14%

Squall defeated Geno: 74.84% - 25.16%

Well, here comes, in my opinion, the best match of round 2. Not only was this the most hyped round 2 match during the first round, but the most likely victor of this four-pack actually lost in round one.

That's right, the mighty Magus Vs. Squall match is not happening because of a fast, red rodent by the name of Knuckles. Yes, the Knuckles who had no shot against Magus. The same Knuckles that created the absolutely best upset of all time.

Yes, we all know how seriously awesome it was for Knuckles to continue his round 1 winning streak, so let's get on with the actual match. Surprisingly, both opponents have a lot to work with as well. Both were in every contest. Both had their fair share of upsets. Both perform rather respectably every year as well.

In 2002, Squall was placed as a 15 seed. I'll allow you guys to let that sink in for a while... Yes, a 15 seed. Severe under-seeding caused for an almost impossible match against Solid Snake in round 1. Squall would end up losing to Snake, while getting 34.57% of the vote. Still, it was pretty good score to get against Snake back then. Knuckles, on the otherhand, defeated Akira in round one with over 80% of the vote. That's right, the first ever character to break 80% was none other then Rad Red. Anyways, Knuckles then went on to lose to Solid Snake in round 2. But, the thing here is that Knuckles actually scored higher then Squall. Knuckles went on to almost get 40% on Snake in round 2. That's a 5% difference right there.

Fast forward to trustworthy </sarcasm> 2003. Knuckles, once again, was stuck in the same four-pack with Solid Snake. After dispatching Yuna with 55% of the vote, he went on to lose to Snake yet again. This time, only putting up 36% of the vote. Let's remember one thing though, 2003 was the worst year for Sonic as well. So his drop in the stats was not surprising. Squall, of course, did his miracle run in 2003. Fresh off of a starring role (I believe) in Kingdom Hearts, he went on to get 60% on both Jill Valentine and Luigi, before getting 41% on Samus. Not too bad of a run, which caused him to gain in the stats.

In 2004... well, wouldn't you know it? Knux was once again put in Snake's four-pack. Yes, we all believed that CJayC hated Knux from then onwards, but there was nothing to do about it. Knux went on to "upset" Kefka while getting 57% on the FF villain. He would lose to Snake again, but this time, managed to get over 40% on Snake. Was this a sign of Sonic characters regaining some strength? Well, Tails won his first ever match, and Sonic made it to the elite eight, and finished in front of Mega Man and Snake in the un-adjusted X-Stats. Squall, on the otherhand, was showing weakness. After easily dispatching Bomberman in round 1, he struggled against Kirby in round 2. He went on to win with 55%, but he was expected to get higher. He then got steam-rolled by Cloud in round 3, probably due to SFF.

Looking at the unadjusted stats, Squall would barely squeak by Knuckles. But, let's not forget something here. Squall has shown signs of weakness suddenly. Rather it be the Kingdom Hearts factor wearing off (as shown by Cloud in 2004, and Sephiroth in Spring), or something else, he's not as strong as 2003 suggests. So, his adjusted stats could be off by a percent or two. If that's the case, then this match becomes rather interesting yet again.

Knuckles has been in more games then Squall. That's a given. Knuckles is riding high on the momentum after upsetting Magus. Squall didn't even get 75% on a side character from SM:RPG. Some signs show that the KHF is weakening, therefore causing Squall to be weaker then his 2003 (hello trustworthy year) numbers show.

Sure, Squall is the favorite to win. But, Magus was an even heavier favorite to win, and that got him nowhere. Hell, even Kefka was the favorite in 2004. Wasn't Yuna the favorite against Knuckles as well?

Basically, it doesn't matter if you're the favorite against Knuckles, and especially in this contest. Everyone should know by now that this contest is as unpredictable, if not more, then the 2002 contest. Therefore, I'm sticking with Knuckles to win this match, and I hope others do as well.

My prediction: Knuckles wins with 50.99% of the vote. And with that, there are no other close matches left in this round. Let's hope Luigi keeps it somewhat close against Tifa.



Outback’s Analysis

Since Knuckles beat Magus, Magus obviously decreased right? Not necessarily. Surely it wasn't ALL Knuckles increasing, but I have no doubt that Knuckles received a substantial increase. Geno is weak, and Squall's R1 performance was not impressive. Knuckles continues his run.

Knux with 50.01%



Inviso’s Analysis

And here we come, to the brain buster of the second round. After Knuckles went all out to beat Magus, his strength really is an unknown, and the stats were put into question. Knuckles and Magus were very close in the non-SFF adjusted rankings, but Magus must’ve been somewhat SFF-ed by Crono, and hence, I believe Knuckles has actually increased in strength. Now, in those same non-SFF adjusted stats, Squall is also quite near to Knuckles, albeit stronger than Magus. Squall also underperformed in a match where he should’ve been able to destroy his opponent. Geno was a Square character with little Nintendo fanbase, and Squall should’ve SFF-ed him to hell and back, yet didn’t. Knuckles and Squall will be very close, but I think it could come down to anti-votes against Squall.

My Bracket: Magus Zeal
My Vote: Knuckles the Echidna
My Prediction: Knuckles the Echidna with 50.11%



Tnote’s Analysis

Blah, I am a moron. I knew in my head Squall would SFF Magus if the match ever happened, and as such should have had Squall winning the division. Not saying he would actually SFF him, but the fact that, in my head, I KNEW it would happen, says enough for my stupidity. Magus, Tidus, Frog… all ridiculously overrated. That makes Knuckles victory a little less stellar. I think Squall easily breaks 45% on Solid, something Knux has never done. This match could get some undeserved hype, but if the echidna couldn’t crack 51% on Magus, he certainly will not be cracking 50% on Squall.

Pick: Squall with 54.83%

Vlado’s Analysis

After a relatively easy win over Geno, Squall is facing Knuckles now. Knuckles beat Magus, and I was pretty sure Magus would beat Squall if the two faced. It turned out that Magus was overestimated by the stats, but... Who cares about stats anymore? Knuckles is the better known character and, this year, better known characters seem to dominate. Squall... Could he really beat Magus? I don't think so. Not even the huge support of the bracket votes could help Magus win against Knuckles. Squall will get much less bracket votes, due to most having already lost this division. I just don't see what could give Squall the win here.

Squall does have some rabid supporters on the board... But let's get serious. Tidus got owned by Kirby. He lost REALLY badly. Knuckles has always been around Kirby's level, sure, he can't benefit from the Nintendo increase this year, since he's not a Nintendo character, but I believe he will still be relatively close to Kirby. And despite some people claiming that Squall is MUCH stronger than Tidus, I just don't buy this. Sure, he's somewhat stronger, mostly thanks to Kingdom Hearts, but that's about it. He beat Kirby really badly last year. But if they met right now, I'm POSITIVE that Kirby would win. Maybe not by as much as against Tidus, but he'd still win.

Knuckles will prove to be one of the strongest characters this contest. I don't think he'll be able to take Vincent, but Squall will be his second victim, after Magus. It's really interesting that Kncukles just refuses to lose against anyone but Snake... And if these two were to meet again, it would be no earlier than the finals. Well, to be honest, who wouldn't love such a final? Too bad Vincent will beat Knuckles, no matter what happens.

Predicted percentage: Knuckles the Echidna with 50.83%.

Holy cow at the Knuckles support.

Vlado's analysis nearly makes my head explode, and it baffles me that people are using Squall's performance against Geno as reasoning for his weakness.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Just because Ganon and Bowser were legit doesn't mean Liquid HAS to be, you know.

Duh, I know that.

But I can't find a single reason why LS would underperform on Seph, by such a ridiculously huge amount no less.

So writing it off as a massive Seph overperformance seems like grasping for straws to me.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

bah. always in the middle.


I think Squall bracket prediction will be lower than Vincent's. He may pull out with 45% of the brackets, but I think Vincent should have over half of the brackets.

i honestly think that Dante has more brackets with him winning the division than either Vincent or Squall. after he took the initial lead this morning, i bet that Vincent is technically the upset among the casuals

*raises WTF flag*

this part doesn't have much to do with the contest itself, but what is going on with the absurd amount of moderations tonight? it's like the board snapped or something. and how many people got warned? anyone notable?
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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

But I can't find a single reason why LS would underperform on Seph, by such a ridiculously huge amount no less.

So writing it off as a massive Seph overperformance seems like grasping for straws to me

Not really. Master Chief and Frog have shown no signs of looking as weak as Sephiroth made Liquid look.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Holy lot of Knuckles picks Batman!
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Aww, no Leonhart curse this time? =(
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

this part doesn't have much to do with the contest itself, but what is going on with the absurd amount of moderations tonight?

A certain newly appointed moderator appears to be abusing power.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Not really. Master Chief and Frog have shown no signs of looking as weak as Sephiroth made Liquid look.

Didn't Master Chief almost lose to Donkey Kong?
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

wtf at Knuckles support!!!

*loves it*
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

Didn't Master Chief almost lose to Donkey Kong?

Is DK weaker than Pac-Man?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Look at those obscenely high Knuckles picks!
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ELIMINATED/125 in the Guru Standings.

Is DK weaker than Pac-Man?

Well that all depends on your definition of "weaker."
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Didn't Master Chief almost lose to Donkey Kong?

handgrenades and horseshoes!
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

He was projected to get 80%+ on Kazuya, another Tekken char, one arguably as prominent/important as Jin.

We also haven't seen him since 2k2, and he's only been in one match. A lot can change in that time. Very few characters have stuck around their 2k2 stats, why would tekken characters? And that's assuming kazuya is even as prominent to begin with. Aside from that he performed only about 4% off of what he would be projected to get on a 2k2 kazuya. That isn't exactly a lot.
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Well that all depends on your definition of "weaker."

As in, would lose to Pac-Man. Besides, 2003 gave Master Chief a 51% victory over DK, and it was off by less than half of a percent.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

That makes...2 sensible people on the analysis crew.

Oh my, this is worse than I thought.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

As in, would lose to Pac-Man. Besides, 2003 gave Master Chief a 51% victory over DK, and it was off by less than half of a percent.

I was kidding.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

He was projected to get 80%+ on Kazuya, another Tekken char, one arguably as prominent/important as Jin.

Well Tekken 4 and 5 came out between those times.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

Yeah, Kazuya has basically faded into obscurity now, and replaced by Jin, who has really become the face of Tekken--except for perhaps either Heihachi or Yoshimitsu, both of whom would not perform well in a contest setting for obvious reasons. Sonic may have dropped, but to base it off that match is hard to justify IMO--reminiscent of a lot of the 'Neo-Tanner' proclamations for Agent 47...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Nearly 63% on that last update for Vincent, but Dante took a big dive in votes.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Nearly 63% on that last update for Vincent, but Dante took a big dive in votes.

Who cares anymore about the current match?

Vincent will job to Squall who will get whipped by Crono, nothing remotely interesting there.

Btw, I can't believe only 2 people on the analysis crew picked Squall...

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I like Ulti's analysis. "well, I'm not actually analyzing, but I'm rooting for Knuckles, so I'm picking him."

Vlado's is also excellent.

as for the moderations, people seem to be upset that Shake is now banned and are thus baiting mods into moderating them. it's quite stupid, really.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Shake isn't really banned. He's using Billy Jamal's account.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119