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Summer 2005 Contest
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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 226
From: transience | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:19:44 PM | Message Detail
because, as far as I know, everyone picked MC.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:20:38 PM | Message Detail
Because the winner was never in doubt before hand.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:20:42 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Vincent over Aeris. I think a large part of this is Dante rising (I had him taking the division for a reason after all) and that Vincent actually is a very respectable force... just nothing that would even come close to dethroning Crono.

Of course that reasoning is probably bias... I'm a very biased bracketmaker. Heh. Pretty much if I think there's upset potential and I have a clear preference, I take my favorite... it's not been kind to me so far. But I'm STILL not eliminated! AHAHAHA!

I will say this as a bold speculation: Vincent beats Squall by even more than Dante.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:21:12 PM | Message Detail
That doesn't change the fact that at the moment Vincent only needs to gain another .10% of the vote to beat Dante by more than Ganondorf beat Auron.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:21:54 PM | Message Detail
How are we doing with vote totals, BTW?
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:24:25 PM | Message Detail
It's actually kind of freaky. It's still 500 or so votes off the pace of Vercetti-Crono, the same place it was 5 or 6 hours ago. We're looking at 99-100k total, if it continues like this.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:26:15 PM | Message Detail
That doesn't change the fact that at the moment Vincent only needs to gain another .10% of the vote to beat Dante by more than Ganondorf beat Auron.

The point stands, and the moral victory still intact, regardless. I'm confident Dante can hold him below 54%, though.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: Zu Long | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:27:12 PM | Message Detail
because, as far as I know, everyone picked MC.

I didn't. DK was one of my upset choices. :P
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"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:29:19 PM | Message Detail
Wow, Dante won an update.

So how have the voting patterns been for this match? I missed out on a bit, and I'm too lazy to read the other stats topic. >_>
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:31:28 PM | Message Detail
So how have the voting patterns been for this match?

Very irratic. Sometimes, Vincent wins big (58-60%), other times, Dante wins one...period. Most are between 52-56%
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Dante vs. Vincent - Bracket: Vincent - Vote: Vincent (46/52)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:31:44 PM | Message Detail
Dante gets the board vote, people go crazy for a bit, then we basically have the pattern we see now. Dante stalls and even makes small gains every once and a while, but Vincent steadily increases his gaining bit by bit over the day.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:32:18 PM | Message Detail
Well, perhaps 'steadily' isn't the best descriptor.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:32:22 PM | Message Detail
And right as I say that, Vincent finally hits 54%
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Dante vs. Vincent - Bracket: Vincent - Vote: Vincent (46/52)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:32:38 PM | Message Detail
So how have the voting patterns been for this match? I missed out on a bit, and I'm too lazy to read the other stats topic. >_>

They've both been near 54/46 almost the entire day. It's like their voting patterns are exactly the same, besides the first fifteen minutes.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:32:56 PM | Message Detail
Don't know about the voting patterns (they've looked normal, but I don't study those all too often), but I think you won our bet. :)
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Zu Long | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:33:22 PM | Message Detail
The point stands, and the moral victory still intact, regardless. I'm confident Dante can hold him below 54%, though.

Which one? That Dante is stronger than most believed him to be? I'll give you that. Dante has come a long way from his fairly weak showing against Sonic in 2k4. DMC3 gave him a way higher boost than a lot of people expected.

I wasn't aware other people didn't consider DK vs MC to be part of the gauntlet, because I did.

Your confidence is misplaced BTW. :P
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"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:33:40 PM | Message Detail
It's like their voting patterns are exactly the same, besides the first fifteen minutes.

I expected that. They had identical voting patterns in their first round matches.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:33:59 PM | Message Detail
Vincent's hit 44% a few times, but Dante keeps taking him back under. I suspect the second night vote might be more kind to him, though.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:34:48 PM | Message Detail
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:32:56 PM | Message Detail
Don't know about the voting patterns (they've looked normal, but I don't study those all too often), but I think you won our bet. :)


Yeah, I'll come up with something later. I'm being really lazy today.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:39:31 PM | Message Detail
Here's Dante's percentage by the hour:
15 - 45.16%
14 - 45.60%
13 - 47.63%
12 - 45.82%
11 - 45.44%
10 - 46.31%
09 - 45.83%
08 - 46.09%
07 - 45.09%
06 - 46.41%
05 - 44.85%
04 - 47.04%
03 - 46.31%
02 - 46.14%
01 - 47.55%

He actually did slightly better during the night, which I didn't notice before. This match should end up with a percentage very similar to the current one.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:40:24 PM | Message Detail
Talkin' about bets, I have now won half of the bet me and Master Mage had goin' on since Vincent > Dante. However, if I win the other half too (AKA if Tifa beats Luigi), he leave GameFAQs before I get his sig for the rest of the contest.

Master Mage, if you end up losin, you gotta owe me SOMETHING; that just wouldn't be fair at all. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:41:47 PM | Message Detail
However, if I win the other half too (AKA if Tifa beats Luigi), he leave GameFAQs before I get his sig for the rest of the contest.

That's not exactly wise now. Tifa will most likely beat Luigi. It'll just be by a smaller margin.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:42:31 PM | Message Detail
Dante with another update victory. 1 vote!

Signs of a night vote comeback!?! Heh...
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:42:33 PM | Message Detail
I think Tifa beats Luigi for the simple fact that I think Tifa is stronger than Aeris.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:44:35 PM | Message Detail
Since when was Tifa/Luigi up in the air??? I merely thought it would help us gauge her chances more against Sonic. Again, I don't doubt that she could very well be more popular than Aeris, it's just the margin of popularity that I'm skeptical about.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:45:25 PM | Message Detail
I'm not sure if you meant it wasn't wise of me or MM, but I agree Tifa > Luigi in all likelyhood.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:45:40 PM | Message Detail
Talkin' about bets, I have now won half of the bet me and Master Mage had goin' on since Vincent > Dante. However, if I win the other half too (AKA if Tifa beats Luigi), he leave GameFAQs before I get his sig for the rest of the contest.

Master Mage, if you end up losin, you gotta owe me SOMETHING; that just wouldn't be fair at all. =P


Don't worry, I have it all planned out. If I lose, I will make a topic ranting and raving about how you owned me, and how I wish you would have sex with me or something.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:45:57 PM | Message Detail
A casual observation, if I may: Aeris would be expected to get 62.18% against KOS-MOS.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:46:10 PM | Message Detail
I think Tifa > Aeris > Vincent also, but I also think Luigi has an outside shot of taking down Tifa.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:47:19 PM | Message Detail
Ooh, sex-xay. Aight then, fair enough, heh,
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:48:38 PM | Message Detail
Well, it's possible that KOS-MOS is overrated by 2k4 stats, especially after watching Ryu bomb.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:49:16 PM | Message Detail
Interesting...I don't even have all the analyses in yet, and Knuckles is already the Crew favorite in his match against Squall.

<3 my Crew.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Dante vs. Vincent - Bracket: Vincent - Vote: Vincent (46/52)
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:49:36 PM | Message Detail
Well, this has probably been brought up many times, but this gives Squall a much better chance at Vincent than perviously thought. I have been gone all day, I was expecting Vincent to me up around 57-43...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:49:39 PM | Message Detail
Tifa might lose. Look what Luigi did to the last busty chick he faced.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:49:57 PM | Message Detail
At this point theres really no way to gauge Tifa because as far as we know she and vincent are two entirely different animals. What would Tifa have to beat Luigi by to look like she could realistically take down sonic? 65-35?
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:50:14 PM | Message Detail
Which analysis' are you missing?
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:50:26 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Tifa will beat Sonic.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:50:29 PM | Message Detail
<3 your Crew
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:51:21 PM | Message Detail
After what Luigi did to KOS-MOS, I'm not sure what she needs. o_O
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:52:12 PM | Message Detail
A casual observation, if I may: Aeris would be expected to get 62.18% against KOS-MOS.

My "casual observation" do you mean undeniable proof that Luigi will win!?!?!?!
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:52:24 PM | Message Detail
By*
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:53:04 PM | Message Detail
Aeris would be expected to get 62.18% against KOS-MOS.

Things are looking up for Luigi, while he continues to look down.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:58:11 PM | Message Detail
Things are looking up for Luigi, while he continues to look down.

lol. I can't wait to here the moaning on either side because of the pic.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:07:23 PM | Message Detail
Luigi's looking at Tifa's assets, which are conveniently placed below the match picture.

Turns out Tifa took advantage of the whole "faces only" thing and is topless in the match picture. Who knew?

Sexy Beast Luigi knows.

>_>
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:15:07 PM | Message Detail
What would Tifa have to beat Luigi by to look like she could realistically take down sonic? 65-35?

I am curious myself.. afterall Luigi did beat KOS-MOS 66-34

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:19:44 PM | Message Detail
Match 44: (6) Knuckles the Echidna vs. (2) Squall Leonhart

Past Performances

Knuckles the Echidna


Summer 2005
Beat Janus “Magus” Zeal, 50.86% - 49.14%

Win - Lose Record
4-3

Squall Leonhart

Summer 2005
Beat Geno, 74.84% - 25.16%

Win - Lose Record
5-3

Analysis

No matter who wins this match, I’ll lose 2 points. I had Magus winning this division, but he turns around loses to Knuckles at the first round. Out of the two characters though, I like Knuckles better. Sadly Knuckles doesn’t have much of a chance to win here, but he still can pull off a second upset.

Like I said Knuckles upset Magus last round. Sadly most of us should’ve seen this coming and if it weren’t for Ganondorf’s performance at the spring contest I think I would’ve picked Squall to beat Magus (I personally would’ve still token Magus over Knux). Squall on the other hand did about as expected on Geno and even though Geno is from Square I don’t think he was SFF by Squall so don’t expect a major boost for him if he were to return next contest.

Squall should take this match with ease, but Knuckles isn’t the type of character that will get beaten down. Two out of the three contests so far had Squall beating Knuckles. In 2k2 both characters faced a similar opponent and Knuckles did much better than Squall, but that was before Kingdom Hearts. In 2k3 Squall did much better than Knuckles and could’ve been in a line of SFF. Using both the adjusted and unadjusted stats has Squall over Knuckles, but as Kingdom Hearts starts to slowly fade could Squall start to weaken? Maybe, but it’s probably most likely that he’ll still beat Knuckles. Kirby this contest has also shown that Squall is still a strong character.

Things doesn’t look good for my favorite character of the division, but I’m sort of expecting Knuckles to make this match look respectable. I would love if Knuckles takes this division, but I think the board would have some kind of a melt down if that were to happen.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Janus “Magus” Zeal over Squall Leonhart v_v

charmander6000’s Prediction: Squall wins, 53.27% - 46.73%

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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:19:59 PM | Message Detail
I quite seriously wouldn't think Tifa could take out Sonic, even if she broke 90% on Luigi.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:21:52 PM | Message Detail
Dante won another update!!!
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:24:00 PM | Message Detail
omg voet stuffing
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:28:47 PM | Message Detail
50.83% of the vote, 49.45% of the vote. I'll say it again, signs of a comeback!?!?

And again I'll say... "heh"...
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
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