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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 226
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:06:19 AM | Message Detail
Wow, this match went from 53-47 when I went to sleep to.... 54-46. How boring.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:06:54 AM | Message Detail
Pac Man will get more on Yoshi than Luigi.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:07:02 AM | Message Detail
Whoamygod first tag LOLerz!

Squall>Knux

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 47/52 (Kefka, Magus, Ocelot, Tidus)
From: ernest | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:07:20 AM | Message Detail
yep it's definetely boring.

squall>vincent&knuckles
---
What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:07:48 AM | Message Detail
I love how anything above 51% is now considered boring...
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:08:13 AM | Message Detail
..but it is :(

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:13:46 AM | Message Detail
Echidnas > Angsty teens
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:14:49 AM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Squall
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: ernest | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:16:02 AM | Message Detail
chicks dig scars
therefore
squall=YOU'RE WINNER
---
What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:16:04 AM | Message Detail
Squall > Vincent > Dante > Knuckles > Magus > Terra >= Geno > > > Kerrigan

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:18:07 AM | Message Detail
I totally called this.

"Dante/Vincent will be relatively close. It won't be 70/30, and anyone who thinks otherwise should have their predicting priveledges revoked. It won't even be 60/40." - Me

And the response I got was something like this.

"lol that not wut the xstats say"
"right... and Kerrigan would struggle with Guybrush"
"Even putting Kerrigan around Freeman's level means Vincent is as strong as Zero and Ganondorf"

Told you so. :P

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:20:10 AM | Message Detail
Queen ***** of the universe = Sexy planet destroyer
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: raytan7585 | Posted: 8/30/2005 11:21:06 AM | Message Detail
Squall > Knuckles

---
Score: 47/52 Now: Dante vs Vincent
MechaMachine Score: 48/52 Pick: Vincent over Dante
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:34:10 PM | Message Detail
"Reality isn’t so kind. Things don’t work out the way you want them to…That’s why as long as you don’t get your hopes up, you can take anything. You feel less pain."

Keep that in mind next time, Vincent supporters, heh.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:35:15 PM | Message Detail
Squall over Vincent, bébé.
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:35:17 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Squall
---
Summer Contest Score: 47/52
Today's Pick: Vincent
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:35:50 PM | Message Detail
XD

Awesome.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Zu Long | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:49:36 PM | Message Detail
"Even putting Kerrigan around Freeman's level means Vincent is as strong as Zero and Ganondorf"

Given that Dante is only slightly weaker than Auron in the 2k4 Xstats, and that Dante probably gained some from DMC 3, while Auron seems to have fallen off, it's likely that that, yes, Vincent IS as strong as Ganon or Zero.
---
"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:50:35 PM | Message Detail
...People still think Auron is as low as the 2004 stats say, even after what Bowser did to Ryu?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:51:19 PM | Message Detail
Despite the fact that Vincent's disappointing in this match, he's still projected to give Snake a damn close match.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Zu Long | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:15:22 PM | Message Detail
...People still think Auron is as low as the 2004 stats say, even after what Bowser did to Ryu?

What does Bowser being underrated due to his SFFing by Mario have to do with Auron?

---
"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:16:03 PM | Message Detail
What does Bowser being underrated due to his SFFing by Mario have to do with Auron?

It validated his Spring Contest number. I don't see how his could've been and Ganon's wasn't accurate.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:17:50 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, this match hasn't moved much at all. Vincent's been hovering in the high 53's all day... Oh well, it's all good for my bracket.

Predictions: Can Vincent stand up to the winner of Knuckles vs. Squall? How will it go?
---
Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:18:23 PM | Message Detail
Squall/Vincent looks to be in the "too close to call" range right now.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:25:32 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Vincent. Don't book it.


~RPGGamer~
From: jetaudio77 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:25:35 PM | Message Detail
Does anyone else think that there was possible SFF in Ryu/Bowser?
---
Your opinion is better then mine.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:26:36 PM | Message Detail
SFF? Why in the world would there be? That term is getting thrown around WAY too much in instances where it has no business being used.

And huzzah! Two straight stat topics have finished on high notes!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:26:46 PM | Message Detail
Did Cloud have thousands of more people to benifit from in 2004?

So, if we had a few more thousand people to match the vote total of Tifa/Vyse, you would expect Cloud to overperofrm by a few percentage points? Cloud being so much stronger than Vyse should have made him overperform on Vyse. Only Link begins to compare to him in strength, since he's so strong, he shouldn't have had a problem performing much better on Vyse, increased vote totals or not.

If that's true, why didn't Barret make it into the contest? Or Cid? Or Red XIII? Would they all be stronger than Aeris and Vincent?

If every Final Fantasy VII character made it into this contest, they would all be above the level of fodder. There's just an issue with people both caring enough to nominate them all and then a cap that could have been hurting them these past years. But along with storyline prominence and appearance, you have to take into account the overall likability of these characters. While I would certainly see Barret being far above fodder, I wouldn't dare see him being out the likes of Red XIII or Cid, despite how he has a great deal of storyline prominence and appearance. Tifa is easily one of the most liked characters in Final Fantasy VII. She's got everything needed to be the third strongest Final Fantasy VII representative and by a considerable margin, at least until Vincent gets his own game.

Those other characters have different issues to address that are not going to allow them to be stronger than Aeris or Vincent. But there are most definitely things there that would allow Tifa to be much higher than Vincent or Aeris. Like I said earlier, all things considered, it wouldn't make sense for it to be any other way.

---
His fighting style, using a pool cue and ball as its main components, makes use of multiple objects not normally treated as weapons.
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:27:09 PM | Message Detail
Don't argue with HM about FF7, he is the king of fanboyism, his opinion becomes distorted >_>

I am a huge Squall and FF8 fan, and still expect Vincent (who I think is easily the best character in the game) to defeat him. They may be on the same level, and many people may think they need to vote for him because he is from FF7.
Crono: 59%
Vincent: 41%

Tifa should be able to take out Luigi with a decent margin, but I doubt her ability to take Sonic down....though Tifa has every reason to be the 3rd most popular character from the game.
Sonic the Hedgehog: 54%
Tifa Lockheart: 46%
---
"Frog > Samus, because Samus is a woman." - Dino Duck
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:27:11 PM | Message Detail
Responding to the last topic:

Let's not forget that Aeris lost to Sonic in his worst year. If Sonic gets 55% on Tifa, I would consider her to be as strong, or even stronger then Aeris still.
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:27:33 PM | Message Detail
I was reading the stats and CM said that Vincent is performing at near elite levels, so do you think Dante is near elite?
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:28:19 PM | Message Detail
I think she'll be clearly ahead of Aeris, though not necessarily by leaps and bounds.

That's fine. But Samus level, Mario level, Crono level, even Mega Man level seems absurd to me. I can accept her making a run for Sonic, but her being so powerful is ridiculous.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:28:19 PM | Message Detail
Squall is a near elite, and this is about what he'd be expected to get. Dante is still a step below there, I think.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:29:15 PM | Message Detail
No, he's not. Vincent is showing his true colors today, and Tifa will as well against Luigi.

And I bet that if Luigi gets this much against Tifa, people are going to blame Luigi overperforming or increasing considerably.
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:30:40 PM | Message Detail
I really hope that Squall can take Vincent down. Squall in the Elite Eight sounds awesome =D Though Crono would just own him >_>
---
"Frog > Samus, because Samus is a woman." - Dino Duck
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:31:13 PM | Message Detail
Squall is a near elite, and this is about what he'd be expected to get. Dante is still a step below there, I think.

Really I would put Squall just below the near elite line. If a character can break 45% on any of the elite characters (not Snake) then he/she is near elite.
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: transience | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:32:00 PM | Message Detail
you know, I'd expect Aeris to get a very similar percentage on Vyse as Tifa did. how many people are going to vote Tifa > Vyse > Aeris? not many. the same goes for Vincent, assuming everyone knows who Vincent is (which seems very possible). Tifa's match with Luigi should say a lot more about her than this match with Vyse did.
---
http://picturesofwalls.com
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:32:03 PM | Message Detail
Samus level, Mario level, Crono level, even Mega Man level seems absurd to me.

For the record, I still think Sonic and Mega are close enough to reasonably think Tifa will either win over both of them or lose to both of them.


And I bet that if Luigi gets this much against Tifa, people are going to blame Luigi overperforming or increasing considerably.

Is there any other option, besides KOS-MOS suddenly losing half of her contest strength?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:32:20 PM | Message Detail
And I bet that if Luigi gets this much against Tifa, people are going to blame Luigi overperforming or increasing considerably.

Nah, I'm only expecting around 60/40
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:32:30 PM | Message Detail
For me, near elite = 31-33% on BL, which is where Squall is. Heck, he'd come awfully close to 45% on Sonic anyway, if he didn't get it.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:32:31 PM | Message Detail
In response to Heroic Mario in the other topic:

You meet Tifa long before the other two -- yes, I'm not counting that first encounter with Aerith in the slums where she sells you a flower -- and she's there until the very end.

You do not meet Tifa long before Aeris, even excluding the beginning. You meet her an hour before, hour and a half tops.

She has the storyline prominence that Vincent lacks and has time in the game that Aerith lacks.


Aeris has even more storyline presence than Tifa and Kuja's bombing implied that screen time past the first disc isn't all that important. And even though Aeris may still not have a lot of screen time, she is mentioned an awful lot. Tifa has more screen time than Sephiroth as well, but that doesn't put her ahead of him.
---
"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: Mithrandir1331 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:33:03 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Zu Long | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:33:03 PM | Message Detail
Ganon and Bowser= stronger this contest. I understand that. I also understand that this was probably true last contest as well. But I don't see what that has to do with Auron. He got 28% on Cloud in 2003, and 33% on Sephiroth in 2004. Bowser got 30% on Cloud in 2003, and 40% on Sephiroth in the Villain contest this spring, while Ganon got 41%. Auron then gets 46% on Ganondorf here in the 2005 contest. All of which seems pretty consistent to me. Auron might have gotten a little stronger here in 2005, probably due to KH2 hype, but DMC3 almost certainly helped out Dante more.
---
"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]
From: Mithrandir1331 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:33:11 PM | Message Detail
Updates of 58% and 59% for Vincent right there. Interesting. I'm not implying anything at all, just interesting following a 51%.
---
Carpe Diem, or so some may say. I don't really know.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:34:00 PM | Message Detail
Squall over Vincent is booked now.

Oh and yeah, I'm eating my words. =\
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:34:04 PM | Message Detail
Is there any other option

Yes. Elite/Noble Nine characters blowing out fodder characters. Basically, if a characters is extremely more popular then the other, he/she will look stronger then he/she actually is.
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:34:15 PM | Message Detail
If a character can break 45% on any of the elite characters (not Snake) then he/she is near elite.

i Hola Shadow !


I'd expect Aeris to get a very similar percentage on Vyse as Tifa did. how many people are going to vote Tifa > Vyse > Aeris?

There's a good share of people who think Mario > Ness > Bowser, we saw, so I wouldn't be surprised about it.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:34:27 PM | Message Detail
Seems like Vincent isin't sucking as much with the day vote as it looked like he would.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:34:33 PM | Message Detail
If Auron was where he was in the 2004 stats (which don't adjust for Cloud and Sephiroth SFF), Sp2K5 Ganondorf would have broken 60% on him (He was stronger than Bowser then, and Ryu was stronger than Auron).
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:35:04 PM | Message Detail
Another thing is that we don't know how Aeris performs against fodder, really. 2002 is very unreliable for measuring fodder, and in 2003 she didn't face fodder--she SFF'd Sora, who has proven to be strong, beat Master Chief quite handily, and came close to beating Sonic. There's no reason why she couldn't have put up similar numbers on Vyse.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
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