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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 225
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:19:15 AM | Message Detail
"Right or wrong, this just seems...petty."

No one claimed they were above pettiness. Heck, they aren't even above selctive reading yet.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:19:29 AM | Message Detail
For some reason, I have a feeling that Dante is going to die during the day. We don't exactly have a lot of data on Vincent, so it's more of a gut feeling, but I think he'll start to pull away once the day vote hits.

There's some evidence of this, considering that Vincent gained percentage on Kerrigan almost throughout their match, but I'm not gonna hang any hopes of salvaging my sig on that at this point. :P
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:20:35 AM | Message Detail
I'm sure someone has already looked, but I was just scrolling through dante's past matches, he does okay with the day vote. He seems to do better during the night, but he didn't lose all that much to Tails, so he seems pretty stable overall, with a better night than day vote.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:22:22 AM | Message Detail
No one claimed they were above pettiness. Heck, they aren't even above selctive reading yet.

lol i dun know what selctive reading is.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:22:26 AM | Message Detail
Oh, honestly...

(02:13:55) Mumei: Hey, don't worry about today. Just look forward to Vincent raping Crono as he so rightfully (... or something) deserves.
(02:14:09) Mumei: ... Or at least hitting 40%+.
(02:14:11) Mumei: Something like that.
(02:14:21) ChichiriMuyo: I'm hoping for 45, heh

Judging from the rest of the conversation, it took place during Geno's match.

And Chichiri, I can't recall exact posts, but until I double-checked this conversation, I thought you thought Vincent was going to beat Crono. You might not have said it outright, but you certainly give that impression...

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<_<
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:28:34 AM | Message Detail
And to lighten the mood, a post I saved from 2004 regarding a possible Link vs. Sephiroth match:

Uhhh.....LINK!!!But Cloud will beat them both just like he did um LAST YEAR!Seriously Sephy coudnt beat Cloud last year, he cant this year. He hasnt improved in any popularity since the last contest. It'll be just like last year. Link released Wind waker right around the contest's end so he benefitted from the hype...and still lost. Personally I dont think either can upset Cloud. If I had to pick some1 to take down Cloud, it woul have to be Samus. She released Metroid Prime, Metroid Fushion, Metroid Zero Mission, and there is hype already about Metroid Prime 2: Echos. She has done the most during the time of SC2K2 and this year. The BIG THREE have in total released 2 games. Just watch, once Megaman debuts in Battle Network 5, X8(assuming its in the class of X4 and X3 and not like X7), MegamanZero 4, and Megaman 9....The new order will be Samus Megaman and Link(with Zelda 2005) as the top tier. Samus and Megaman will be the highest and dominate the next 2 years. Cloud and Seph will join Mario in tier 2. if they wanna keep strong, they need a new game. FF7 is one of the best there is and KH was a great boost, but they need more to dominate fr years to come. Samus and Megaman are seriously gona threaten their top 3 positons. I still say Cloud THIS year, but next year Link's new game and Samus's new game will make them favorites, replacing Seph. and MM will take Cloud's spot if he releases all 4 games I said. This year will be Cloud's last aura until MM and Samus rplace FF7 on top with Link!!!!!

Enjoy. =)

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<_<
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:29:00 AM | Message Detail
Hot damn...assuming Vincent wins 55-45 against a constant Dante, where in the blue blazes does that put Kerrigan?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:29:49 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:30:11 AM | Message Detail
I got bored and tried to make a little vote thingy.

You need to enter the stuff your self, and I haven't placed any validation yet, so it'll be very glitchy and the interface needs a lot of work.

But, you can give it a try.

http://s34.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=0S1OQYLS1HZFE0W02RC68IDVBY
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:31:38 AM | Message Detail
Also, I doesn't like big numbers, which would need to be worked on. >_>
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:33:56 AM | Message Detail
"But Chichiri quite clearly insulted us, even though he was one of the people that said Vincent would come close to Crono, which are the people who are very clearly wrong in this case."

I quite clearly insulted anyone who believed Dante was winning this match, yes. I honestly don't think dante has a shot at coming back from this, either. Anyone who was dismissive and used poorly formed hypothetical and circumstantial ideas were shot down very brutally by me for it. That's what I tend to do, and It's not liek any of you weren't shooting. Heck, it's not even like I shot first. No, Vincent isn't likely to meet my expecations, and I've already communed with some very reputable gods of ill-repute on the matter of taking Vincent past Squall, but if you expect me to appologize for having an opinion and parading it around this topic when you were doing the same thing you're sadly mistaken.

And trust me, no amount of picking apart past statements I've made will change that. Yes, I used the English language in a flamboyant manner unbecomming the typical dried-up old men who work with stastics, but that's because I'm not one of them. I've used a technique that many of you would be well advised to get a better grasp on; hyperbole. You'd have to be a total newb, or Smurf, to be unaware of the fact that I write that way more often than not. Hyperbole, however, does not change the fact that I had expected 45-55 from the beginning and that your attempts of pwning are thoroughly misplayed.

I will not, under any circumstance, appologize for having an opinion or expressing it to anyone who has done the same. Having your opinion turn out to be correct does not make me an ass, and acting like you have some sort of right to tear apart my previous arguments (which you haven't managed to not screw up yet) makes anything I said previously quite null. You have two options, know that you were right and let it go because you know I know you were rigth or be an ass. Sadly, you've chosen the low road and your reward for that is that I will never give you the satisfaction.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:37:11 AM | Message Detail
No, you were being an ass whether you were proven right or wrong. >_>

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<_<
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:37:33 AM | Message Detail
"You might not have said it outright, but you certainly give that impression..."

Of course I gave that impression, he's my favorite character in the whole damn contest! I talked him before he even made it into one, so I'm damn sure going to keep doing it. Again, this is English in written form, and it doesn't take a professor to pick out hyperbole.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Nai | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:37:41 AM | Message Detail
Good Morning guys...

Well, Vincent is winning but not by an enormous margin... as expected, for me. If he wins today, he'll have an hard time on next match and no chances against Crono.

What do Vincent-supporters say?
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Currently playing: Killer7 [GC] + Yoshi Touch & Go [DS]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:38:55 AM | Message Detail
"No, you were being an ass whether you were proven right or wrong. >_>"

Don't point fingers, you don't have enough for all the guilty parties.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:39:19 AM | Message Detail
creativename has rigged his percentage updater to not count the MANY fraudulent updates Vincent has had, including the last one. That damn vincent supporter...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:40:32 AM | Message Detail
Vincent is starting to make BIG leaps, preceded once again by small stalls...odd.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Mb26 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:41:06 AM | Message Detail
what are you sugesting? haxxing?
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Pwninating the villages......
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:41:44 AM | Message Detail
"What do Vincent-supporters say?"

Since I'm probably the only one actually here that wanted to see him do well for personal reason's I'll say disappointing, but not badly. As long as he wins I'm happy to se emy boy in action, even if he isn't in the upper echelons as he should be. Heck, at least he has an outside shot of making it to Crono still, which is more than I gave him when making my bracket (I'm a filty traitor, but betrayal is worth a few new games to me).
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:41:51 AM | Message Detail
http://s22.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=2HCA8EPS13RWD3263IOE8FPDPF

That should be a better version.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:42:43 AM | Message Detail
"what are you sugesting? haxxing?"

Ninja, he'd suggesting ninja.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:43:17 AM | Message Detail
Chichiri wasn't kidding when he said this:
95% on Dante? that sounds like a good goal. I'll do what I can to make it happen.

See? It's his fault.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:44:05 AM | Message Detail
I think the possibility of cheating in this match on the level of Romero is very, very low. For those in the know, this match wasn't supposed to be in doubt for Vincent (and Dante's the steadier of the two, so the problem if any is on Vincent's end). But, if there was a cheater, I still don't see what could stop such a person from checking the stats topic and lie low every time someone picks up on erratic voting patterns. Odd, yes...but cheating is exceedingly unlikely.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:44:09 AM | Message Detail
Of course I gave that impression, he's my favorite character in the whole damn contest! I talked him before he even made it into one, so I'm damn sure going to keep doing it. Again, this is English in written form, and it doesn't take a professor to pick out hyperbole.

So... Why do you act like people are stupid for believing that you think that when you concede that you may give that impression?

And no one expects you to apologize because you have an opinion; they wanted you to apologize for attacking them and calling them delusional when it was clearly the opposite. At this point, they've lost their claim to an apology after attacking you, so everyone should just call it even and drop it. -_-

Don't point fingers, you don't have enough for all the guilty parties.

I don't appreciate that, only having 2 fingers on each hand. Horrible accident when I was 6.

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<_<
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:44:18 AM | Message Detail
The best part of cn's new addition is the ease of which a graph coul be made for each match to line up vote trends with. We haven't had all that many good graphs since King Morgoth was doing them, have we?
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:45:26 AM | Message Detail
Does anyone think there's anything behind the % jumping. I think it might just be that new feature influencing us, because there's a good bit of jumping in every match is seems, by 5 minute intervals.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:46:31 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and much thanks for suggesting TRE, Chichi. He send me Parts 141 - 224. =D

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<_<
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:50:01 AM | Message Detail
"At this point, they've lost their claim to an apology after attacking you, so everyone should just call it even and drop it. -_-"

I'm good with calling it even, in fact I wouldn't have felt slighted at all if they had just gone "Pwned, In j00r face Vincent lover!" a couple of times and left it be. But the fact of the matter is that they were as vile as many of you are calling me, and that was long before the poll had started. When you add that to the fact that they went out of their way to make me a target at the very first instance they had anything to contradict what I had said you get a very, very not happy Chichiri.

I've been twice slighted, and that's one more than I'll allow. Now, if you'll excuse yourself, we've had this discussion before and I made it quite clear how I stood. If you wish to not slight me yourself, and end this debate as you so fervently claim to want, then you will yourself drop the matter.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:51:48 AM | Message Detail
"Does anyone think there's anything behind the % jumping. I think it might just be that new feature influencing us, because there's a good bit of jumping in every match is seems, by 5 minute intervals."

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa here, don't use logic! If you limit your line of thinking to the truth you'll miss out on imaginary haxxors!
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: ernest | Posted: 8/30/2005 2:58:01 AM | Message Detail
vincent's gains are all over the place now. he gets 228 votes in one update and then 91 in the next. he doesn't make regular gains per update at all he just hammers everything in
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So what do you do all day ? I run a couple of newspapers.- Orson Welles in Citizen Kane
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:00:06 AM | Message Detail
It doesn't matter. We saw patterns that were just as erratic over a year ago in Jill vs Hayabusa and IIRC we saw it both times the match played out. Yes, it looks weird, not it's not solid evidence of anything fishy going on. Again, we can't even consider calling shenanigans for many hours to come.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:04:00 AM | Message Detail
You're right.

VINCENT IS CHEATING!

Oh and lol at this update from the Vercetti/Kefka match.
107.26% -7.26%

Hurray for removing cheat votes.



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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Mb26 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:04:13 AM | Message Detail
Yes but its good to watch for signs of it..
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Pwninating the villages......
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:06:07 AM | Message Detail
he gets 228 votes in one update and then 91 in the next.

Wasn't that update the one where it skipped an update and that actually counted 10 minutes worth of votes?

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<_<
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:07:30 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, that's a good one. Never looked at the updater on that one past seeing "Whoamygod TV pulled it out!!".

And yeah, it's fine to keep an eye out, but there's littl eneed to point out what we've already seen. If there's something there it'll show even better in several hours, let's leave it at that as otherwise it'd idle speculation that goes in the face normal trends.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:08:55 AM | Message Detail
"Wasn't that update the one where it skipped an update and that actually counted 10 minutes worth of votes?"

Argh! Logic from you as well? How are we going to find the haxxors that don't exist if we work within the boundaries of facts!!!
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:11:50 AM | Message Detail
I really hate when the account manager won't update you sig even though it save the info.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:13:24 AM | Message Detail
And Dante continues to stall Vincent, refusing to go quietly. You know, if I had any faith his Day Vote trumped Vincent's, I could see a close match coming. As it stands...more wishful thinking on my part.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:16:16 AM | Message Detail
Luigi's looking better all the time.
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: Mb26 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:16:41 AM | Message Detail
No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin... just a love for a drug called contest statin'. < thats sapose to be the song "tussin" right..? is ther ean MC Chris cd or something..?
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Pwninating the villages......
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:16:59 AM | Message Detail
http://www.penguin-place.com/post/images/macaroni.jpg

Penguin Palpatine approves of ignoring logic regarding possible cheating.

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<_<
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:17:22 AM | Message Detail
I really don't get how people don't consider 47-53 close. I mean, at this point some people act like anything beyond 45-55 is a blowout. This is a close match... right here, right now. Unless you think Vincent is pulling away like he did with Kerrigan this IS a close match, and unless he escapes 55% I can't imagine anyone saying it's not.
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:19:15 AM | Message Detail
"No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin... just a love for a drug called contest statin'. < thats sapose to be the song "tussin" right..? is ther ean MC Chris cd or something..?"

Yes, it's the Tussin'. It's off of his first CD, Life's a ***** and I'm her Pimp which is downloadable for free from his official site www.mcchris.com
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:19:15 AM | Message Detail
Well, when I say close I mean it a bit differently--I literally DO mean it in the Mario/Crono, Frog/Chief, wire-to-wire way. That's just me, though. I'm aware this is a very close match on its own merits.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:20:16 AM | Message Detail
I think that close is a relative term - some people would say that Tidus vs. Shadow and Link vs. Cloud (both 2003 and 2004) weren't "close" just because one character led throughout and the result was certain after a few hours, even though they were close matches if you go strictly by percentages.

---
<_<
From: Mb26 | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:22:22 AM | Message Detail
"No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin... just a love for a drug called contest statin'. < thats sapose to be the song "tussin" right..? is ther ean MC Chris cd or something..?"

Yes, it's the Tussin'. It's off of his first CD, Life's a ***** and I'm her Pimp which is downloadable for free from his official site www.mcchris.com


my god.......
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Pwninating the villages......
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:22:34 AM | Message Detail
Looks like Vincent is starting to get serious.

Here's hoping he can make himself look somewhat more respectable.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:23:33 AM | Message Detail
See, and if I was expecting a MvC level match I'd call it dead even. That's not just close, that's a result that could flip-flop if you held the match again a day later. You cannot expect matches like that often, and aparently some people have become far too spoiled on them to appreciate anything that isn't that close. Given that I don't expect that level of competitiveness, it's little surprise that I'm one of the few that wasn't disappointed by the gauntlet (though I was also counting in DK vs. MC, knowing it'd be the closest of them all).
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No balls to be bustin', no fightin', no cussin'... just a love for a drug called contest statin'.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:27:40 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:32:11 AM | Message Detail
Um...did I just see Dante take two updates in a row?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
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