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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 225
From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:49:09 AM | Message Detail
I intend to post to be more than just a "my bad" regarding this. I am not going to laugh this off.

Clearly, I was mistaken to an extreme degree about this. I am not going to attempt to defend myself in any way.

And no, I can't blame this on bias, as I don't actually have any particular fondness for Vincent. I truly believed Dante didn't stand a chance here. I was wrong, to a profound degree (Dante currently has almost 47%, certainly higher than I what I thought was his ceiling).

If there was anyone I upset, I bow down before you (and I don't mean this in any sort of facetious way). I was horribly mistaken, and people have the right to say whatever they like to me. I will not blow it off.

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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:49:48 AM | Message Detail
Hey, I thought Vincent had a shot at taking out Crono. Granted, it was the day of the match and I never said anything about it because I knew I'd be ridiculed and I changed my mind soon enough, but I considered it. I just don't like underestimating FF7 in any situation. Vincent will still be near-elite or elite, almost certainly. Not bad for an optional character, and he can only get better after DoC.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:49:53 AM | Message Detail
I don't see why you people are complaining about some people thinking Vincent had a chance to take out Crono. Surely discussion like that is what the stats topics are for. Not only that, I don't ***** when you state something I disagree with.

I don't care that people were saying that, it's that people were saying that, then bashing the fact that I and others thought it would be a close match. Now what I'm irked about is being told that it never happened.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:49:58 AM | Message Detail
Where are the old stat topics being archived now?

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<_<
From: transience | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:51:22 AM | Message Detail
out of curiosity, what does you upsetting people and Dante performing above your expectations have to do with each other? the posts were either offensive or they weren't, regardless of the outcome. (I myself wasn't offended, by the way.)
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From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:51:26 AM | Message Detail
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/30/2005 8:49:53 AM | Message Detail
I don't care that people were saying that, it's that people were saying that, then bashing the fact that I and others thought it would be a close match. Now what I'm irked about is being told that it never happened.


You guys were just as bad saying it wont happen from what I've seen...
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:51:27 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and while we're at it, I'm almost certain the higher vote totals didn't favor Vyse. Tifa's not on Seph level, obviously.

Just stating the obvious...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:51:29 AM | Message Detail
Well, then. It appears I was owned. Thank god I can console myself with the fact that against Kerrigan, Vincent's % gains were much smaller between :30-:45 than they have been against Dante. He might end up significantly closer, but he's pulling away faster.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:53:07 AM | Message Detail
Dante attempts to stall Vincent again.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:53:21 AM | Message Detail
I thought the higher the percentage, though, the harder it was to increase said percentage? Wouldn't that hold true here?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:53:42 AM | Message Detail
"(Dante currently has almost 47%, certainly higher than I what I thought was his ceiling)."

A figure that is certain to change in the comming hours, my friend.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:54:17 AM | Message Detail
Well, Vincent could certainly pull away to a higher percentage much more easily than he did against Kerrigan. Heck, Sephiroth was able to pull away to nearly 60/40 against Bowser.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:54:23 AM | Message Detail
I'll give a cookie to the first person who can point me towards the previous stat topics.

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<_<
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:55:02 AM | Message Detail
"I thought the higher the percentage, though, the harder it was to increase said percentage? Wouldn't that hold true here?"

Right, but that means Vincent has an outside shot of pulling away past the 60% mark, considering that fact. Very slim, I know, but it consoles me to no end at this moment.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:55:03 AM | Message Detail
Whenever I'm looking for an archived stat topic, I actually Google it. <___<
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Mamuman | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:55:39 AM | Message Detail
Go Dante!
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This user is my god
v
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:55:41 AM | Message Detail
No gain for Vincent.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:55:42 AM | Message Detail
TRE has pretty much all of them, you should ask him.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:56:18 AM | Message Detail
Here's your cookie, Chichi. Thanks, much.

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<_<
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:56:22 AM | Message Detail
I thought the higher the percentage, though, the harder it was to increase said percentage? Wouldn't that hold true here?

Theoretically, that's true. But in reality, a character isn't going to swing much from the start of the match to the end, no matter how the match begins.

Example: In Snake vs. Tanner, Snake had to get 19 votes for every vote Tanner got in order to maintain his percentage. This sounds challenging, but Tanner's not suddenly going to start getting a huge number of votes.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:57:00 AM | Message Detail
A figure that is certain to change in the comming hours, my friend.

Well, Dante could rise, and even win. He's got a good shot.


And for any I might have angered, you can take some solace in the fact that this will hurt me a lot in the Oracle challenge (as well as in the fact that I am acutely aware now that I was wrong).
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www.SC2K5.com
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From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:58:36 AM | Message Detail
I don't think you angered anyone. Just annoyed. We stil wuved you, even if you were being a poop.

:)
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: transience | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:59:00 AM | Message Detail
Dante has virtually no chance of winning this. he may keep it close, but winning is pretty much out of the question.

not that I'd mind if he proved me wrong.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:59:11 AM | Message Detail
Eh, apologizing so profusely, while perhaps a sign of genuine humility, isn't really warranted here. I doubt anyone here was actually *angered* by anything said in this topic. We just tend to get caught up in the heat of the debates. But it looks like we have a match on our hands, or at least something other than a blowout.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:59:31 AM | Message Detail
Considering how similar their vote trends were I'm hard pressed to believe dante will win. Squall, pehaps, but Dante looks to be done for another season.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:59:41 AM | Message Detail
How can I hate cn with all of his sexiness? Completely impossible.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:00:06 AM | Message Detail
Well, depending on your definition of 'blowout', of course. I don't think Vincent will break 70% or anything like that here on in.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:00:14 AM | Message Detail
Well, whoever it was that said Dante has yet to lose respectably can now say that this is no longer the case.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:01:05 AM | Message Detail
Heck, Sephiroth was able to pull away to nearly 60/40 against Bowser.

Whoa...I already forgot how strange Sephiroth/Bowser was. Sephiroth increased his % almost every single update, consistently until the end of the match. That's just crazy, and I doubt we'll see it again.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:01:12 AM | Message Detail
Especially if he still puts Crono to the test :) That'd certianly be the best case scenario for me, loving all three characters and all.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:01:36 AM | Message Detail
Stall, stall, jump, stall, stall, jump. This is reminding me of Snake/Zelda. I'd say 55/45 is a good estimate for the end of this match.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:01:41 AM | Message Detail
These are some weird, weird clips. Vincent's vote totals per 5 minutes are jumping all over the place.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:02:39 AM | Message Detail
..and Dante's are staying pretty consistent. I'm not calling vote stuffing just yet though.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:03:35 AM | Message Detail
Insuficient data.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:04:10 AM | Message Detail
I can actually see Vincent getting erratic vote totals, and I could bet dollars to donuts it could be due in part to the optional status. The FF7 vote will always be strong, but every once in a while I'm guessing a decent percentage of the FF7 fans won't know who Vincent is, and it'll cost him an update here and there.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:04:33 AM | Message Detail
Give me 10 more minutes of data and if it does what it has been doing, then we have a Kefka/Vercetti like pattern going.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: chaos knight | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:04:45 AM | Message Detail
God, I miss the days when only 10 people came to the CSaD just because I didn't have to wade through so many poorly constructed arguments and misinformed comments

...and where the **** did that come from? If I was off a bit on my statement, you could've just corrected me politely now, christ.
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[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right.
LBSJ
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:04:56 AM | Message Detail
Insuficient data.

True. Getting a bit ahead of myself, after all the chastising I did? Bad Karma.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:05:39 AM | Message Detail
I love Chichiri, but Chichiri and politely should never be associated with one another.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:06:04 AM | Message Detail
Give me 10 more minutes of data and if it does what it has been doing, then we have a Kefka/Vercetti like pattern going.

Ugh, but that's *corrupted* data.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:06:34 AM | Message Detail
"Give me 10 more minutes of data and if it does what it has been doing, then we have a Kefka/Vercetti like pattern going."

Odd, because even after 3 hours of it I was still leery of calling shenanigans on the match and said so to you personally, didn't I? It's strange, but not enough so, and if it's fraudulent then we'll know in due course.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:06:56 AM | Message Detail
Dante's trying to hold his own. At this point, Vincent still has the match in hand. The only matter left to decide is the final percentage.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:07:59 AM | Message Detail
Kefka/Vercetti cheating really didnt cross my mind, but I just found the entire thing odd. We were watching it and it kept doing the exact same pattern.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:08:13 AM | Message Detail
"...and where the **** did that come from? If I was off a bit on my statement, you could've just corrected me politely now, christ."

I got the point across though. I'll appologize, if you like, but be forewarned that further statements that off-base will be met similarly. It's nothing against you, I'm just tired of random people coming in and saying things that aren't even remotely correct.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:10:19 AM | Message Detail
Yes, but several other matches have done it as well. We wen't over that. Something could be fishy, sure, but why not wait until there's a bit more of a discernable pattern?
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:11:00 AM | Message Detail
Yep. Same pattern. Large gain, smaller gain, virtually no gain, Large gain, etc...
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:11:01 AM | Message Detail
Another successful stall by Dante, and he's back over 47% here. I'll be interested to see how this looks when I wake up.

Night all.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:11:18 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, it is far too early to call shenanigans... not too early to start looking into it and monitoring it, but hell, it could be any number of things at this point.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:11:18 AM | Message Detail
You know, I hate to say this because I'm rooting for Vincent, but this really does look pretty odd.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2005 1:12:00 AM | Message Detail
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:58:36 AM | Message Detail | #072
I don't think you angered anyone. Just annoyed. We stil wuved you, even if you were being a poop.


From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 3:59:11 AM | Message Detail | #074
Eh, apologizing so profusely, while perhaps a sign of genuine humility, isn't really warranted here. I doubt anyone here was actually *angered* by anything said in this topic.


BTW, just to be clear, the point of my apology wasn't to try to put a positive spin on this. I meant it. I am truly floored that Dante is keeping this close. I absolutely am stunned. When I saw Dante with 48% my eyes bulged out.

And while I might be skipping some people, I would like to specifically say "I was wrong, you were right" to Mumei, Delirium Trigger, Lopen, and charmander.

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