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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 224
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:46:56 PM | Message Detail
Seriously, I can't believe there's even been a single post of discussion about Dante/Vincent. It's blatantly obvious to the point where Ceej might as well just give you two points and slap on Vincent against Squall.
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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:47:22 PM | Message Detail
The match result, I mean.
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:47:38 PM | Message Detail
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:46:56 PM | Message Detail
Seriously, I can't believe there's even been a single post of discussion about Dante/Vincent. It's blatantly obvious to the point where Ceej might as well just give you two points and slap on Vincent against Squall.


Exactly the same thing people thought about Luigi...
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:48:38 PM | Message Detail
its not about who will win so much as by how much, since this will give us an accurate estimate of vincent.
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From: sidharta | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:48:59 PM | Message Detail
Exactly the same thing people thought about Luigi...

Luigi over K0S-MOS has always been a free point, wasn't it?

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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:49:27 PM | Message Detail
I think he was referring to Squall/Luigi...
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:49:29 PM | Message Detail
Luigi over K0S-MOS has always been a free point, wasn't it?

I meant Luigi/Squall in 2k3...
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:49:51 PM | Message Detail
Really, the stats pointed right at Kirby > Tidus... I'm not sure why anyone (let alone almost everyone) was in doubt of it.
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From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:50:24 PM | Message Detail
Some people were crazy enough to think that Luigi would lose.

Yay for Crono blowing the crap out of the GTA guy today!! Too bad he didn't hold him under 27.2%, like I was guessing.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:06:28 PM | Message Detail
Actually Luigi vs. KOS wasn't a free point, the reason why the mathc is such a big deal is because the two were supposed to be near even. Heck, even at a first glance I picked KOS to win, though after thinking about it for a minute or two proved that wrong. Sure, in retrospect it was free points, but before the bracket closed there was some doubt.
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From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:06:28 PM | Message Detail
People used the "Vincent is an overhyped newcomer similar to Luigi" to explain how he would flop against Kerrigan. Now they're using it for Dante.

They think history is repeating itself with people overhyping yet another newcomer. They completely miss the true theme at play.

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:13:33 PM | Message Detail
From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:06:28 AM | #211
People used the "Vincent is an overhyped newcomer similar to Luigi" to explain how he would flop against Kerrigan. Now they're using it for Dante.

They think history is repeating itself with people overhyping yet another newcomer. They completely miss the true theme at play.


Well said. History is quite fickle. It's not like there's any curse against any particular character or group of characters *expects "You're one to talk" replies by the thousands*.

I don't think for a second Vincent can take Crono. Heck, I don't think he can take Tifa. BUT, whoever thinks he'll do so much as break a sweat against Dante and Squall are out of their freaking minds.
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:15:54 PM | Message Detail
Squall is well above Dante. Why can't he make Vincent sweat exactly...? I don't quite get that. If he pushes for 60% tomorrow, then you don't have anything to worry about. 55% or so, and Squall WILL make him sweat.
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From: sidharta | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:18:13 PM | Message Detail
Yay for Crono blowing the crap out of the GTA guy today!! Too bad he didn't hold him under 27.2%, like I was guessing.

Meh, he still exceed the 70.74% the X-stats projected him to get on un-adjusted Vercetti.

Nothing spectacular by any means, but not disappointing either.

He's just like Cloud back in 2k4, performing just as expected.

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From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:18:42 PM | Message Detail
Terra from from FFVI would, like, double Kerrigan. Therefore, what Dante did is much more impressive than what Vincent did. Dante can come close to beating, if not beat, Vincent, and no one is crazy for thinking that.

Creativename is being really annoying about Vincent. Really, really annoying.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:20:18 PM | Message Detail
Squall only did 0.7% worse on Samus than Sonic did. He also got 55% on the same guy that got 57.5% on Tidus, as well as 60% on the guy that doubled KOS-MOS and Pac-Man. He's no pushover, and he's certainly out of Dante's league.
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From: sidharta | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:20:22 PM | Message Detail
Terra from from FFVI would, like, double Kerrigan. Therefore, what Dante did is much more impressive than what Vincent did. Dante can come close to beating, if not beat, Vincent, and no one is crazy for thinking that.

Creativename is being really annoying about Vincent. Really, really annoying.


He's just trying to show people the light.

It's too bad you refuse to see it.

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:20:31 PM | Message Detail
Odd how everyone's performing like they should be unadjusted, except Megaman and Snake, and the latter looks like he's actually gone up from his adjusted value. Go figure.

And for kicks, how would've Crono been expected to do on Vercetti through adjusted 2004 Kefka?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:21:50 PM | Message Detail
About 71.15% or so based on Kefka.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:21:51 PM | Message Detail
Squall only did 0.7% worse on Samus than Sonic did.

Comparing Samus 2003 and Samus 2004 = BLUE SCREEN OF DEATH
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:21:55 PM | Message Detail
Terra won't be doubling Kerrigan...ever. Terra'd beat Kerrigan, but it would NEVER be that decisively.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:22:21 PM | Message Detail
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/30/2005 12:21:50 AM | #219
About 71.15% or so based on Kefka.

Hmm, so it's not impossible SA actually made Vercetti drop, either. That avenue should be kept open.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:22:26 PM | Message Detail
Comparing Samus 2003 and Samus 2004 = BLUE SCREEN OF DEATH

Yes, because we know exactly how much Link SFF'd Samus.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:22:32 PM | Message Detail
Comparing Samus 2003 and Samus 2004 = BLUE SCREEN OF DEATH

Yeah, Zero Mission gave Samus a 5% boost. Prime? Absolutely nothing.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:24:14 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, and you think I'm forgetting how it took a night vote from hell to beat Sonic in what would be the closest match ever for the next two years? Yeah right.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: cyko | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:24:38 PM | Message Detail

And for kicks, how would've Crono been expected to do on Vercetti through adjusted 2004 Kefka?


i actually get Crono with 70.80%. no joke.


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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:25:33 PM | Message Detail
Er, what? 2k2 was before Prime.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:26:11 PM | Message Detail
Hyperbole. They didn't do that differently in % (8% was it?), and no-one here can really say they'd take Kerrigan over Terra, or that she'd even come all that close. So it's not as wacky as some of you Voncent-lovers are saying, and the riddiculing of people who think this way is getting really annoying.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:27:17 PM | Message Detail
Yes. And to go from struggling against Sonic to pulling much better numbers than him the year after is definitely Prime, too.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:29:02 PM | Message Detail
It mostly seemed to be due to Sonic dropping than Samus gaining. If you base her off of Ryu, she barely seemed to gain at all in 2003.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:29:58 PM | Message Detail
Staying perfectly constant with regards to Link must be all Prime, as well. All none of it. Unless you think Samus overperformed on Sephiroth for some bizarre reason.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:30:55 PM | Message Detail
No... Sephiroth on Link is just as bizarre, but it makes a lot more sense.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:31:54 PM | Message Detail
But regardless of what you base it on, Samus barely seemed to move at all if Link didn't SFF her.
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From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:31:58 PM | Message Detail
Hyperbole. They didn't do that differently in % (8% was it?), and no-one here can really say they'd take Kerrigan over Terra, or that she'd even come all that close. So it's not as wacky as some of you Voncent-lovers are saying, and the riddiculing of people who think this way is getting really annoying.

Agreed. Well for the most part, now all Vincent supporters, and I'd say not even the majority of them, but some are just being asses about it. You can believe that Vincent will decimate Dante, and I'm nobody to say he won't, but you don't have to ridicule people who support him.

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From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:39:47 PM | Message Detail
I'm surprised the pic still isn't up...Unless Ceej is looking to put the pics for the rest of the round now...
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From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:40:40 PM | Message Detail
Wouldn't doubt it... I'm expecting Round 2 pics to be all out when he gets around to putting up Dante/Vincent.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:39:58 PM | Message Detail
Things to remember: no firearms in the engine room.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:44:15 PM | Message Detail
Just 'cuz nobody responded to it and I spent alot of time typin' it up, I'm gonna repost (original post in the link).

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=23203212&message=253259289



From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:07:53 PM | Message Detail
I can understand people bein' skeptical about Vincent based off of Kerrigan, I really can; Kerrigan is new, afterall, and has potential to be very weak despite what many of our original predictions thought before the contest (not everyone, mind you).

However, Cloud and Sephiroth have shown their superior strength to all things not named Link (or Mario high on waterpack-crack). FF7 has won the only Game Contest we've had, and it dominated SSBM (which is the strongest game in the 128-Division, where DMC would have been if it had made it into the contest). Aeris has proven her worth by making it to the Sweet Sixteen twice and bowing out respectably to Solid Snake and Sonic. Tifa, based off of a constant Vyse, very well could be capable of taking the main bracket. In a match that was heavily disputed and divided amongst board members, Vincent absolutely blows away Kerrigan; I honestly think the only disputed match that ever went so far the other way was Cloud/Fox...which, coincidentally enough, was an FF7 character's first match too.

Let me also show you a list of characters who cracked 75,000 votes thus far in the contest: Mario, Solid Snake, Vincent, Tifa, and Mega Man. Let me also show you a list of characters who cracked 75%: Mario, Samus, Solid Snake, Kirby, Crono, Vincent, Sonic, Tifa, and Mega Man. Let me also ask you to remind yourself who each of those characters had to face. Let me also challenge you to say only Zidane and Kerrigan have ever had half a chance to place higher than our VFL (don't say Ness, smart-asses), decided by the same Vyse Tifa decimated.

To bring Aeris back up, though I don't have the polls on-hand, allow me to bring back up two polls HM whored out awhile back: they were both FF7-favorites polls, one on GameFAQs and one off GameFAQs. The one on GameFAQs showed Cloud > Vincent > Tifa > Aeris, and the one off GameFAQs showed Cloud > Sephiroth > Vincent > Tifa > Aeris. Tifa has already shown her potential break-through power, and Vincent > Tifa at two different places (including GameFAQs).


The point is, while I can still understand people being wary about Vincent, there is so ****in' much in his favor that it feels like the ones supporting Dante are purposely over-lookin' some things. No, I'm not saying they necessarily are, but the vibe I get is that they simply refuse to give Vincent much credit. I realize some think Dante gained enough from DMC3 to help him win this, which I'll respect and not argue (though I have doubt in my mind about it); it's just that a majority of what I've seen has Vincent as not proving enough yet. Thing is, though, he's done more in one match than over 100 other characters in their entire careers in any contest; from one-match wonders like Chun-Li to Elite Eight material like Sonic, Vincent has out-impressed.




Take all that as you will; I don't mind if you disagree with afew things, but I think the correlation made is unavoidable: Vincent is strong.
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From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:51:48 PM | Message Detail
An hour to match time... where the hell are the pics.

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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:53:56 PM | Message Detail
Good question. We need something to discuss for the next hour...
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Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:56:31 PM | Message Detail
I vote pregnant teens.

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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:58:50 PM | Message Detail
I laugh at anyone who says that Samus went down between 2002 and 2003 and claims that Link didn't SFF her in 2003, which is the same year in which she got her first game in eight years and the game that was arguably the most important release of her entire career. Reviewers bashed the living hell out of Metroid Prime for being first person. It had to sell well for Samus to retain respectability, and it did. All of Samus's recent exposure can be attributed to Prime being a hit. Selling over 1 million copies on the Gamecube is no joke given what the Gamecube's market share is, and Samus got a slew of recent releases and exposure as a result.

Come on people, get off the Xsts and use some common sense. You're very out of touch if you honestly believe that Link didn't SFF Samus, and that match doesn't even take into account a possible 1-2% underperformance by Link due to having the WW pic.

~*ST*~
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:59:51 PM | Message Detail
I really doubt most pictures make a difference that large, even Wind Waker Link.
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Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:59:52 PM | Message Detail
lol x-stats

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From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:00:59 PM | Message Detail
Link SFFing Samus to any substantial amount that year is something that people should be skeptical about, using "common sense". There's no evidence to indicate it, really.
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From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:01:00 PM | Message Detail
Wind Waker Link vs. Samus pic owned.

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:01:14 PM | Message Detail
lol people who aren't smart enough to use the x-stats correctly (Woot Kirby > Tidus!)
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:02:37 PM | Message Detail
There's no evidence to indicate it, really.

Well, other than Samus apparently waiting a year to benefit from Metroid Prime (just like people thought Ganondorf waited a year to get Link's boost). All possible evidence was pretty much hidden behind SFF in 2004.
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Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:03:48 PM | Message Detail
Come on people, get off the Xsts and use some common sense.

What does this have to do with the Extraploated Standings? The extrapolated standings make no claim to be accurate in situations with large amounts of SFF or a large year to year change.
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From: transience | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:04:14 PM | Message Detail
odd: no picture yet. not odd: more boasting about Vincent.

since there's nothing else to talk about, I'll say Crono has 79.43% of the brackets. he's impressed me today.
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