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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 224
From: transience | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:48:30 PM | Message Detail
37? I figured you took TV over Crono!

the guru topic hasn't updated yet, I guess.
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From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:48:42 PM | Message Detail
A lot of people that clearly weren't you, of course. Perhaps you missed the last half of the last topic.

I don't think anyone is saying Vincent can possibly be weaker than that... I haven't heard one person say that, but if I missed it, and they have, well they deserve to be shot.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:49:18 PM | Message Detail
You cannot directly compare a cult game to a mainstream game, that's a fact, and that's the point of my argument.

Fair enough, it just sounded like you had gone completely insane and joined the "sales = instant win LOLOL" arguments some people have. Kerrigan is quite a bit different then pretty much anyone else we've seen yet. She's part of an emsemble cast that takes place over three different screnario's in which you get to play every side. I don't think we've seen any characters yet that we can compare to that.

Really, when all of you want to be on the same page instead of arguing about something I'm not even trying to say by all means let me know.

It sounded like you were arguing about sales meaning something. It's very easy to take a statement out of context on a message board. I'm sure you've done it before yourself.
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From: Lopen | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:50:34 PM | Message Detail
Hey hey... 39 after TV vs Crono. Don't undersell me. Not using the X-Stats can be a bad thing, apparently... heh.

But um... my move begins tomorrow! Like I said... the ends of the spectrum!
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:51:36 PM | Message Detail
Match 43: (1) Dante Sparda vs. (5) Vincent Valentine

Past Performances

Dante Sparda


Summer 2005
Beat Terra Branford, 71.50% - 28.50%

Win - Lose Record
5-3

Vincent Valentine

Summer 2005
Beat Sarah Kerrigan, 79.00% - 21.00%

Win - Lose Record
1-0

Analysis

This is the most controversial match of the contest. We’ve gone through topics arguing about the match and finally it’s coming tomorrow. We’ve had people predicting that he could take the contest to losing to Kerrigan; I personally have him losing to Dante at this match. This match will answer a lot of questions; hopefully I won’t get into a flame war against myself while writing the analysis.

Some people on the board had Terra and Kerrigan over Dante and Vincent, but to the board’s surprise both characters blew away their opponents. Some people may not say this about Dante, but he did impress us, though Vincent stole his thunder. If it wasn’t for board 8 I think many of us should’ve seen this coming.

First of all, if Vincent does get there he won’t be seeing the final 4 in this contest. From a direct match Crono barley doubled Dante and even though that happened in 2k2, I’ve noticed that Crono would still only doubles Dante. If we make Kerrigan = Terra Vincent would only beat Dante 64/36 and believing Kerrigan = Terra is somewhat crazy. Even though they are both from an ensemble cast, Final Fantasy VI > Starcraft (I know games =/= characters) and the biggest argument made for Kerrigan is that Starcraft is a multiplayer game and most people haven’t played/don’t care about the single player. Also if you look at previous PC characters they haven’t really done that good. I find that this reason alone will keep from Vincent breaking 60% (if he wins).

Now since Devil May Cry 3 is out could Dante have grown stronger? Most of us say that Ultros would’ve been the bottom for Terra so Dante rising isn’t really that likely, but it’s not out of the question, DMC3 won’t be the reason if Dante was going to win. Vincent may not have anything new out, but from what I’ve heard the new final fantasy movie was delayed so any rise before the premier of the movie is most likely gone. Also hype for games he’s going to get probably will only help him minimally so it’s that’s not really a factor to consider.

I’ve always thought that Vincent would never be stronger than Aeris. First of all he’s a very well known, but optional character (gets shot) and second of all Aeris was in Kingdom Hearts while Vincent was not. “But Charmander I have two different polls from GameFAQs and another site stating that Vincent is stronger than Aeris and Tifa!” Yes and we all know that Yoshi and Knuckles are the strongest characters Mario and Sonic characters. Vincent may be the fan favorite, but (let’s say he’s against Aeris) who would vote for who if Cloud, Sephiroth, Tifa excreta, excreta weren’t in the same poll. I’m almost positive that Aeris would take the poll, but since Vincent is new I can’t really say it’s true.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:51:50 PM | Message Detail
Another comment is Kerrigan being nothing, but fodder. If you look on what I said before, Kerrigan is from an ensemble group of characters from a game which is mostly really only played for its multiplayer. If it wasn’t for the board I would’ve easily call it a 75/25 match in my last prediction. “But Charmander Kerrigan can’t possibly be weaker than JC Denton, I want proof!” Show me proof that she isn’t equal to Denton, you can’t. For all we know she can be even weaker than that. I would take Ratchet and Kuja over Kerrigan and expect her to lose now. If Kerrigan does have any kind of strength she wouldn’t be stronger than Freeman which would make that match go 58/42 for Vincent.

What I’m trying to say is that other than Dante the whole 4-pack was filled with new characters with no way to assume their strength. You can’t make a better case for Vincent then you can for Dante. Vincent will be the favorite going into the match, but Dante has every reason to win as does Vincent. The “discussion” won’t stop until the match happens and one side is going to be very embarrassed. Too many people are predicting Vincent to do so well so if Dante breaks 45% I’ll still be happy and it will at least shut up the Vincent fanboys. Who has the advantage at which times of day is still unknown and it will be very interesting to see what happens.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Dante Sparda over Vincent Valentine


charmander6000’s Prediction: Dante wins, 51.35% - 48.65%
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:52:23 PM | Message Detail
You know what I said about no one really thinking that Dante would win?

... Yeah, forget all that.

<.<

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:53:56 PM | Message Detail
You know what I said about no one really thinking that Dante would win?

... Yeah, forget all that.

<.<


Vincent = favorite, but Dante will still win.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:56:52 PM | Message Detail
lol I think my analysis made the topic quiet or everyone left once I posted it.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:57:17 PM | Message Detail
WE ALL HATE YOU.

>_>
<_<

*fondles*

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:57:30 PM | Message Detail
No, people are probably picking apart each point as we speak. ^_^

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:58:01 PM | Message Detail
<3 charmander6000
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:59:13 PM | Message Detail
Halo 2 didn't give MC the big increase everyone was expecting right? Why do you think DMC3 will give him a significant boost?
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:00:00 PM | Message Detail
"It's very easy to take a statement out of context on a message board."

And frustrating after it's happens 3 times in an hour.

"You know what I said about no one really thinking that Dante would win?

... Yeah, forget all that.

<.<"

I told you as much several times, why you'd chose not to believe me is beyond my comprehension.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:00:42 PM | Message Detail
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/29/2005 4:59:13 PM | Message Detail
Halo 2 didn't give MC the big increase everyone was expecting right? Why do you think DMC3 will give him a significant boost?


Because of Kratos' performance against Alucard and Ryu H.'s performance on Zero. It shows that action games are definitely popular now.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:00:53 PM | Message Detail
Now since Devil May Cry 3 is out could Dante have grown stronger? Most of us say that Ultros would’ve been the bottom for Terra so Dante rising isn’t really that likely, but it’s not out of the question,
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:01:12 PM | Message Detail
Halo 2 is...Halo 2. It's XBox. The stuff that's reviled on GameFAQs. It's just not going to bring new people into the fold.

Now, DMC3 may not do anything for Dante, either. But it could happen--MGS3 almost certainly made Snake rise, after all.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:02:51 PM | Message Detail
I told you as much several times, why you'd chose not to believe me is beyond my comprehension.

For awhile I was just reading what creativename said, so if you said it between those posts, I may've missed it. And up until char, I didn't see other people...

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:03:28 PM | Message Detail
"No, people are probably picking apart each point as we speak. ^_^"

I would, but 3 sentances into it he lays out utter ******** proving once again that, as I said, he's decended to the level that Tai was when he came to the topic. Bending, stretching, or in this case breaking the truth of the matter in helf is childish to a degree that I didn't expect out of Char but probably should have. I have yet to see anyone in earnest say that Vicnent is taking the whole contest and here's this kid saying that people are. What a joke.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:05:24 PM | Message Detail
"For awhile I was just reading what creativename said, so if you said it between those posts, I may've missed it. And up until char, I didn't see other people..."

Clearly the last line should be referenced back to the first, then.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:05:53 PM | Message Detail
Halo 2 didn't give MC the big increase everyone was expecting right? Why do you think DMC3 will give him a significant boost?

Probably because the crapfest that was DMC2 gave him one.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:06:34 PM | Message Detail
I have yet to see anyone in earnest say that Vicnent is taking the whole contest and here's this kid saying that people are. What a joke.

By whole contest I meant just the main bracket and if you were there during Vincent/Kerrigan you'd at least saw a few people saying that Vincent could win.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:07:49 PM | Message Detail
"Probably because the crapfest that was DMC2 gave him one."

Circumstantial. There was a huge shift in voting trends that also could have benefited him. Oddly enough, once again he has a new game before a huge voter shift, though this time it may be the goggles for him, for all we know. Either way, I wouldn't count on him being higher than his 2k3 number.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:07:53 PM | Message Detail
I can understand people bein' skeptical about Vincent based off of Kerrigan, I really can; Kerrigan is new, afterall, and has potential to be very weak despite what many of our original predictions thought before the contest (not everyone, mind you).

However, Cloud and Sephiroth have shown their superior strength to all things not named Link (or Mario high on waterpack-crack). FF7 has won the only Game Contest we've had, and it dominated SSBM (which is the strongest game in the 128-Division, where DMC would have been if it had made it into the contest). Aeris has proven her worth by making it to the Sweet Sixteen twice and bowing out respectably to Solid Snake and Sonic. Tifa, based off of a constant Vyse, very well could be capable of taking the main bracket. In a match that was heavily disputed and divided amongst board members, Vincent absolutely blows away Kerrigan; I honestly think the only disputed match that ever went so far the other way was Cloud/Fox...which, coincidentally enough, was an FF7 character's first match too.

Let me also show you a list of characters who cracked 75,000 votes thus far in the contest: Mario, Solid Snake, Vincent, Tifa, and Mega Man. Let me also show you a list of characters who cracked 75%: Mario, Samus, Solid Snake, Kirby, Crono, Vincent, Sonic, Tifa, and Mega Man. Let me also ask you to remind yourself who each of those characters had to face. Let me also challenge you to say only Zidane and Kerrigan have ever had half a chance to place higher than our VFL (don't say Ness, smart-asses), decided by the same Vyse Tifa decimated.

To bring Aeris back up, though I don't have the polls on-hand, allow me to bring back up two polls HM whored out awhile back: they were both FF7-favorites polls, one on GameFAQs and one off GameFAQs. The one on GameFAQs showed Cloud > Vincent > Tifa > Aeris, and the one off GameFAQs showed Cloud > Sephiroth > Vincent > Tifa > Aeris. Tifa has already shown her potential break-through power, and Vincent > Tifa at two different places (including GameFAQs).


The point is, while I can still understand people being wary about Vincent, there is so ****in' much in his favor that it feels like the ones supporting Dante are purposely over-lookin' some things. No, I'm not saying they necessarily are, but the vibe I get is that they simply refuse to give Vincent much credit. I realize some think Dante gained enough from DMC3 to help him win this, which I'll respect and not argue (though I have doubt in my mind about it); it's just that a majority of what I've seen has Vincent as not proving enough yet. Thing is, though, he's done more in one match than over 100 other characters in their entire careers in any contest; from one-match wonders like Chun-Li to Elite Eight material like Sonic, Vincent has out-impressed.




Take all that as you will; I don't mind if you disagree with afew things, but I think the correlation made is unavoidable: Vincent is strong.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:11:12 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan will prove to be super uber fodder, but Vincent should still be able to get past Dante. This guy definitely thinks 55% is Mr. Valentine's absolute ceiling, though.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 47/52 (Kefka, Magus, Ocelot, Tidus)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:11:21 PM | Message Detail
"By whole contest I meant just the main bracket and if you were there during Vincent/Kerrigan you'd at least saw a few people saying that Vincent could win."

And I mean main bracket. I'd download firefox or whatever it is you need to block people on message boards just to avoid seeing your utter nonsense if I thought you meant the ToC.

And I WAS there, louder than pretty much anyone else, and never once did even I say that I thought Vincent had a serious shot at the crown. Since that day the Vincent fans have been less fervent about his domination have taken fewer opportunities to say that he will overcome Samus (assuming anyone has said it at all) and your *****ing has become, in contrast, louder and more frequent.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:12:43 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan will prove to be super uber fodder, but Vincent should still be able to get past Dante. This guy definitely thinks 55% is Mr. Valentine's absolute ceiling, though.

More like 64% if Terra = Kerrigan, I'm just hoping Dante breaks 45%.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:14:31 PM | Message Detail
Well, I just hope Dante performs respectably. But I will be extremely happy if Dante won that match.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: transience | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:15:26 PM | Message Detail
wait, you went from picking Dante to win to saying you hope he breaks 45%? what?
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From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:15:51 PM | Message Detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/user.php?user=114455&board=75249&topic=20530018

Irrelevant, but whatever. Yay Dabu!
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:15:51 PM | Message Detail
Same, as long as Vincent is contained to 55% or less, I'll be happy.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:16:24 PM | Message Detail
Technically, around that point there were a lot of people speculating about this Final Four, based on Nintendo/FF7 dominance:

Samus
Zelda

Vincent
Tifa

Now, if people were speculating that Zelda, who just got pummeled by 10,000 votes in the second round, was going to make the Final Four, I'd call that pretty big overestimation indeed. Now, obviously, Dante is no Snake. But there was serious speculation over whether Vincent could take the main bracket. And speculation that depending where you put Kerrigan, that he could win the ToC.

But, that's all really just an aside. Just pointing out that there WERE those people saying that. Oh, and Vincent will beat Dante, most probably.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:16:48 PM | Message Detail
And I WAS there, louder than pretty much anyone else, and never once did even I say that I thought Vincent had a serious shot at the crown.

I didn't say that you thought he would.

Since that day the Vincent fans have been less fervent about his domination have taken fewer opportunities to say that he will overcome Samus (assuming anyone has said it at all) and your *****ing has become, in contrast, louder and more frequent.

Ok so I'm going a little overboard, but with the people who think he has a serious chance on taking Crono he would be the favorite to beat Sonic/Mega Man (if Tifa gets there don't ask me) so at least finals would be good for him.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:18:28 PM | Message Detail
Samus
Zelda

Vincent
Tifa


Samus > Tifa
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:19:46 PM | Message Detail
"I didn't say that you thought he would."

But i'm the most vocal Vicnent supporter and if anyone was going to say it honestly it would have been me. No one is seriously saying Vincent > Crono at this point, no one.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:21:12 PM | Message Detail
wait, you went from picking Dante to win to saying you hope he breaks 45%? what?

Depends on the mood I'm in, sometimes I think I have a spilt personality.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:23:16 PM | Message Detail
But i'm the most vocal Vicnent supporter and if anyone was going to say it honestly it would have been me. No one is seriously saying Vincent > Crono at this point, no one.

So the people at the last topic only thought Vincent would get 49%/48% on Crono or something?
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:24:03 PM | Message Detail
Most people think Vincent's gonna impress against Crono, though no percentages were given out unless I missed something.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:24:53 PM | Message Detail
I think most people in the last topic were calling for Vincent to at least crack 40% on Crono. That's not too absurd.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:26:07 PM | Message Detail
Vincent could possibly break 40% he only has to be as strong as Aeris.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:27:16 PM | Message Detail
I'd probably take Aeris over Dante, while I'm thinkin' 'bout it.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:28:35 PM | Message Detail
I would easily take Aeris > Danet, but if there was no such thing as Kingdom Hearts I might have to think about it.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:31:51 PM | Message Detail
"I'd probably take Aeris over Dante, while I'm thinkin' 'bout it."

There was doubt on that? No wonder so many people think Dante can beat Vincent. There's approximate 0.001% change of Dante beating Aeris and requires her stock to drop significantly.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:32:04 PM | Message Detail
Incidentally, did anyone take my account bet that Luigi would break 45% on Tifa? I'm not going to have internet access at home between Sept. 1-11, so speak up now. Or at least soon.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:32:36 PM | Message Detail
*chance, not change
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:36:54 PM | Message Detail
Just respectin' DMC3 and what Dante did to Terra...

*checks the stats*

...heh, didn't realize Aeris was that far ahead of him, and I forgot they have a common opponent in Sonic. Whoops...yeah, no doubt in Aeris > Dante afterall, and that makes Dante > Vincent that much less likely.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:38:34 PM | Message Detail
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:32:04 PM | Message Detail | #094
Incidentally, did anyone take my account bet that Luigi would break 45% on Tifa? I'm not going to have internet access at home between Sept. 1-11, so speak up now. Or at least soon.


Ah, I believe I proposed a bet to you a while back about Luigi not breaking 43%, but I don't know if you ever saw that.

An account bet is not something I would do. And I strongly urge you not to do it with anyone either, as IMO you're basically assured of losing your account here if you do. I really would hate to see that :)
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:39:40 PM | Message Detail
Please don't take it; I hate the idea of account-bets.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:44:41 PM | Message Detail
Looks like MasterMage is following RPGuy's lead...
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:45:41 PM | Message Detail
This topic is relatively quiet now that the heated Dante/Vincent discussions have stopped.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
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