From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:14:27 PM | Message Detail
Games =/= characters.

We have no idea how strong vincent is at this point. I'd probably peg him a bit above aeris myself, but considering a serious threat to crono before we've seen how strong he actually is seems kind of foolish.

So? You can't just ignore something like that. We can't get any official figures, but, we can make some, what we feel to be reasonable estimates, of couse, these can be wrong, but isn't guessing things the point of these contest?

I myself, would consider that Vincent has a chance, along with Tifa, of winning this contest. Now, if this happens to be wrong I'll happily admit I'm wrong, but, based on the current facts we have, I currently consider this to be a big possibility. But, like you said, we have no way of directly judging Vincents current strength, but we can make guesses.
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"Dante did almost 6% better on Ratchet than Luigi."

Grasping for straws so much that you're missing the point. I'm not arguing that Luigi and Dante are on the same level, I'm pointing out that people were using that match to say a character can get a blow out and be weak but that Luigi's match against KOS-MOS shows we've likely underestimated him for two years running (A new Tails, perhaps).

"'course Luigi also killed Ratchet and ended up weaker than Jill and Dante let Tails get 42% on him and get stomped on by Sonic."

Impossible to decipher, but likely grasping for straws.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

People seem to continue to have this bias against new characters being strong, and it is irrational.

Because new characters have a tendency of bombing. Hard.

Look at Luigi, Viewtiful Joe, CJ, Lloyd Irving, Revolver Ocelot, Jak, and Kefka.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine

Oh, and before people ***** at me, I said I would "consider that Vincent has a chance", not, Vincent will win the contest. Big difference.
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I have yet to see anyone state that they actually expect Vincent to beat Crono, or that he deserves to be the favorite.

I never said that, I said that they are convinced he will put up huge numbers on crono. Putting up the numbers on dante that I'm hearing would put him at that level.

If nobody is claiming that he is definitely a huge threat to crono, then I'll back off. If anyone is though, just wait another nine hours before continuing to boast it. Then we'll see just how powerful he actually is.
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Some people are trying to do absolutely anything to convince themselves that Vincent can still lose, even if they go against all logic...

Why? I'm just saying that Vincent gets votes for the game he represents, not for the character he is. That means he makes great results against poor characters but is going to underperform against stronger character.

I repeat, I may be wrong, but it doesn't seem illogic to me...
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I'm surprised more attention isn't being given to Squall/Vincent, honestly. Assuming both of them win, and that's a pretty good assumption, we'll see that Vincent is somewhere between Dante and Crono, probably near the middle. We've seen two of Squall's past opponents kick ass (Luigi and Kirby), and he's been stuck behind SFF for two years. He's somewhere between Dante and Crono, probably near the middle. Add that it's an SFF match where we have no idea where the SFF might end up, and I'd say that has more potential than either Vincent/Dante or Crono/Vincent.
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I think people are overestimating Dante's strength. What of significance has he exactly done in this contest??
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"I'm just saying that Vincent gets votes for the game he represents, not for the character he is."

And you're incorrect, congratulations.
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Don't forget about Liquid Snake, he got 80% against Tenpenny.

And you're incorrect, congratulations.

I'd say that there is a chance that Tifa does that though. She got votes against Vyse for being from FFVII.
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Yes because Aeris underperformed against strong characters... Vincent has shown to be the fan favorite after Cloud and Seph on almost every Final Fantasy website. Now I know that doesn't mean he's going to be near their strength. But to say he gets more votes because of FFVII well saying Aeris and Tifa don't is insane.

"Kerrigan's strength is unknown. She could be on the level of Guybrush for all we know."

Grasping for straws

"Vincent could be part of the choke family through, he destroys fodder but chokes in round 2 and 3."

Grasping for straws

"I may be wrong, but I think that in that match it was FF7 that destroyed Kerrigan, not Vincent."

Grasping for straws

I notice a trend. Each time, instead of refuting the argument, you insulted them. Those were not wild claims, they were theories. Valid concerns.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 6:15:39 PM | Message Detail | #391
There's more than enough evidence to at least consider the possibility, and we're being fed derisive comments because we have. It's out and out ridiculous to defend that side of the argument, even if you don't like the other side all that much.

True.

Now I'm sure that someone is going to think that this situation parallels the Vincent/Dante argument; this person would seem to be neglecting to the evidence at hand.


From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/29/2005 6:19:29 PM | Message Detail | #397
I never said he couldn't but you should hold off another nine hours or so before considering him that strong. That's all I'm saying. It's not you, it's those who are damn near convinced that he's a total powerhouse.

Expectations that end up being correct are just that.


From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/29/2005 6:21:32 PM | Message Detail | #401
I myself, would consider that Vincent has a chance, along with Tifa, of winning this contest. Now, if this happens to be wrong I'll happily admit I'm wrong, but, based on the current facts we have, I currently consider this to be a big possibility.

Yup.
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And you're incorrect, congratulations

Maybe. I'm making assumptions on what happened to other side characters in the past contests, just this.
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Are you trying to say that people who thought Kerrigan could challenge Vincent weren't delusional? Because they were clearly delusional before the fact, and after the fact...well, you know.

Same thing with anyone who thinks Dante can actually beat Vincent.

If they honestly believed that, yes, they were. That doesn't mean I have to support the name-calling.

I still don't believe that the people were arguing against Vincent winning thought that it was likely - the people arguing for Kerrigan to win or do well were conceding that if she did win, she would barely win. And again, who were "the people"? I remember MasterMage believing she would win. I know I thought anywhere from 30 - 40%, and I hoped for more. Who else expected her to really give Vincent a run for his money?

And no, not the same thing with Dante. With Kerrigan, it should've been obvious who was going to win. With this match, while Vincent is a very big favorite, there's always that chance that Kerrigan was weaker than anyone thought possible, which would make it possible for Vincent to get "only" 52 - 53%. I can't bring myself to suggest that there is a chance that Dante will win, though...

Hmm. Doubtful.

By "informed", I mean that they are aware of the previous results - and at least some of them are.

Because history is repeating itself. This should be clear.

And why is that clear? The possibility is certainly there that Kerrigan is far weaker than anyone had ever expected - as people have pointed out, she comes from an ensemble cast of a game that isn't well known for its multiplayer. Looking at how weak other PC characters, Diablo aside, and the fact that those characters are usually the star of their game (no ensemble cast) and their game focuses on single-player, I think it is a bit ridiculous to say that Kerrigan couldn't be weaker than CATS. I don't like that, and I hope it isn't true, but I have to concede the possiblity. In retrospect, her getting less than 25% on Vincent should've been obvious.

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

Expectations that end up being correct are just that.

Like the ones that expected terra to be stronger then kefka?
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"Kerrigan's strength is unknown. She could be on the level of Guybrush for all we know."

Grasping for straws

"Vincent could be part of the choke family through, he destroys fodder but chokes in round 2 and 3."

Grasping for straws

"I may be wrong, but I think that in that match it was FF7 that destroyed Kerrigan, not Vincent."

Grasping for straws

I notice a trend. Each time, instead of refuting the argument, you insulted them. Those were not wild claims, they were theories. Valid concerns.

Don't you know Heroic Knuckles? It's easier to insult than to refute!

Come on! Everyone knows this!
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Again, this is the worst argument I've heard in my life. Let's looks at the facts...

Aeris has been in this contest, she was never voted for with the full strength of the FF7 fanbase. She had her own strength and that's all she ever had to work with. So why then does Tifa or Vincent get such treatment, especailly since Cloud and Sephiroth are sitting on the ToC reminding everyone that they aren't at all gone? You can't even use the proxy argument here (which, if anyone looked a tmy bracket you'd know I abandoned before the contest even started having Ganon go to Samus and Bowser to, well, Samus) even if it's valid to a degree. What we do have is two characters greatly outperforming general expectations and people refusing to believe it. Do you remember the last time this happened en masse? I do, it was for Cloud's first couple of matches in 2k3. "Oh, it's just CATS, anybody could have done that to him."
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 6:24:11 PM | Message Detail | #403
Because new characters have a tendency of bombing. Hard.

Look at Luigi, Viewtiful Joe, CJ, Lloyd Irving, Revolver Ocelot, Jak, and Kefka.

Selective memory much? New characters have also done well, and the most relevant example of all here would be Aeris.

And seriously, if you don't believe Red XIII would squash most characters in this contest, I don't know what to say. And yet he might never make it into one of these contests.


From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 6:27:50 PM | Message Detail | #411
I'd say that there is a chance that Tifa does that though. She got votes against Vyse for being from FFVII.

Except that we've never seen any situation like this magical "constant votes from the fanbase that will collapse later despite no SFF" situation.

If she gets support from being from FF7, that's her strength.

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I don't see any reason why Kerrigan can't be as weak as Guybrush, her fans are more vocal and that's it really.

Except that we've never seen any situation like this magical "constant votes from the fanbase that will collapse later despite no SFF" situation.

You won't get ALL the votes, sure. But Tifa racked 'em in by the bundle. I suspect that Aeris did this as well. But not Vincent - he is not nearly as prominent, and he wouldn't represent the game.
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The Power is Yours.

Are you trying to say that people who thought Kerrigan could challenge Vincent weren't delusional? Because they were clearly delusional before the fact, and after the fact...well, you know.

Same thing with anyone who thinks Dante can actually beat Vincent.

You can't actually mean that.

I had Kerrigan over Vincent, but the only way I figured that would come through was if both of them were fairly weak and not very strong. I also don't think it was "delusional" to expect a character to do well from a proven strong game. In fact it's exactly what Vincent was banking on.

And, I'm not expecting much sff in the Squall/Vincent match. They are same company/series, but they are different games. Vincent is no Cloud, but my hopes again are probably based in an Aeris/Squall match, where I think Squall would win. In Aeris/Squall do you think Aeris would sff Squall? And that level of sff would probably be closer to the Vincent/Squall sff, rather than the Cloud/Squall sff.



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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

... So Dante vs. Vincent will be his "Sonic vs. Cloud", and you'll either be completely vindicated or proven wrong.

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

I'm not sure I understand your last post. Why is Aeris didn't get the support Vincent and Tifa are apparently getting?

As to your last point, anyone can get blowouts given the right opponent. Kerrigan may be one such opponent.
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What we do have is two characters greatly outperforming general expectations and people refusing to believe it.

I never said that, on the contrary I was really impressed on Vincent (as well as Tifa's) performance on Round 1. And I still think he's going to win tomorrow, but I'm still not 100% sure of this, for the reasons I explained before.

You have a different opinion on that... well, where's the problem? We're here to talk about the contest and stuff, let's just share opinions, I don't see any need of being arrogant or of insulting...
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*why didn't Aeris get

Oops.
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For every vote Vincent gets, Jack Thompson sues the video game industry.
4th/125 in the Guru Standings.

I do love the way (most) people are quick to point out the Kerrigan could be really, really weak, but they always forget to point out the possibility that she might not be so weak.

Also, going a little off this topic.

Some people consider (considered?) that Bowser and Ganon performed so well in the Villains contest because of franchise voting, I don't know what the general consensus on this in the end was, but could there be a possibility that since Could and Sephy are in the ToC that Vincent and Tifa could benefit from franchise voting, as well?
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I fully acknowledge that they both overperformed, but more in the area of Tifa than Vincent. Kerrigan is new, Vyse wasn't.

Overperforming based on our expectations than stat expectations are two very different things.

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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Why is Aeris didn't get the support Vincent and Tifa are apparently getting?

I think she did.
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You won't get ALL the votes, sure. But Tifa racked 'em in by the bundle. I suspect that Aeris did this as well. But not Vincent - he is not nearly as prominent, and he wouldn't represent the game.

Are we STILL on the "Vincent is not prominent in his game" argument?
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Some people consider (considered?) that Bowser and Ganon performed so well in the Villains contest because of franchise voting, I don't know what the general consensus on this in the end was, but could there be a possibility that since Could and Sephy are in the ToC that Vincent and Tifa could benefit from franchise voting, as well?

This never made any sense to me in the first place, but I think that Ganondorf/Auron and Bowser/Ryu effectively dispel any "franchise voting" and validate the Spring stats. We might have even underestimated them.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Are we STILL on the "Vincent is not prominent in his game" argument?

No. It's just my gut feeling that he's not the face of his game as the mandatory characters are.
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The Power is Yours.

In a sense, that he doesn't represent FFVII.
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From: Mumei | Posted: 8/29/2005 6:29:39 PM | Message Detail | #416
That doesn't mean I have to support the name-calling.

Name-calling? Calling delusional people delusional is not name-calling, it is calling out the nature of their position.

I still don't believe that the people were arguing against Vincent winning thought that it was likely - the people arguing for Kerrigan to win or do well were conceding that if she did win, she would barely win. And again, who were "the people"? I remember MasterMage believing she would win. I know I thought anywhere from 30 - 40%, and I hoped for more. Who else expected her to really give Vincent a run for his money?

Few were thinking 30%-40%. Most were thinking 35%-45%. And there were plenty saying that she would challenge Vincent, and saying it was unreasonable to think otherwise; when the truth was nothing of the sort. And this truth was known by many, and those same many are saying the same thing now.

In retrospect, her getting less than 25% on Vincent should've been obvious.

Nooo...by definition, that was as not-obvious as you can get. Given that not one single person predicted it.

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Also, if it was someone like Samus, that most of you stats guys seem to love, you'd be using 80% on Kerrigan to boast that she's going to win the contest and then beat Sephy.
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I do love the way (most) people are quick to point out the Kerrigan could be really, really weak, but they always forget to point out the possibility that she might not be so weak.

I could say the same thing about Terra. Just saying.

About franchise voting, I don't think most casuals take the time to examine the bracket that closely. Even if they did, I don't know why that would make them more likely to vote for a given character.

SpC2K5? I don't know what to think, but the cause probably wasn't franchise voting. It doesn't seem very solid.
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"That doesn't mean I have to support the name-calling."

After what they've said to us on the matter you have no right to defend them, then. Not only are there more people in here saying that we're wrong for thining it's even possible that Vincent can hit the elite levels but they are far less than pleasant about it AND they act as if our opinion is overrunning this topic when it's clear the opposite was true until I came back on at the least, and possibly still true despite me.

"By "informed", I mean that they are aware of the previous results - and at least some of them are."

I agree, but being informed means nothing if you absolutely refuse to accept any shred of actual evidence that is overwhelmingly agaisnt you.

"Don't you know Heroic Knuckles? It's easier to insult than to refute!

Come on! Everyone knows this!"

I'm sorry, but I'm above the act of giving asinine "arguments" any creditability or thought when it's obvious that they are desperate attempts to make any baseless hypothesis* into some sort of "evidence".

*Note: No, they aren't theories for whoever called them such, in scientific terms that would require testing and succesful results instead of wild guesse swith no backing. As we can see, the stats are easily broken down into a science, if not an exact one, and therefor these people have put forth nothing better than untested hypothesis
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From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/29/2005 6:38:12 PM | Message Detail | #429
Some people consider (considered?) that Bowser and Ganon performed so well in the Villains contest because of franchise voting, I don't know what the general consensus on this in the end was, but could there be a possibility that since Could and Sephy are in the ToC that Vincent and Tifa could benefit from franchise voting, as well?

There have long been theories like this, and they've always proved ineffective.
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I cannot wait for Vincent/Dante to be over so this whole thing will be put to rest.. at least until the next Vincent match. but still, that's two weeks away from arguing about Vincent.
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Also, if it was someone like Samus, that most of you stats guys seem to love, you'd be using 80% on Kerrigan to boast that she's going to win the contest and then beat Sephy.

No... I've never tried to verify a character's strength after one first round match. I'm actually one of the most vocal persons in this topic AGAINST doing as such. Any argument that I have for Vincent is based on how popular I think he is, NOT on how he performed against Kerrigan. I think it's the same for a lot of other people in this topic.
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If franchise voting does exist, it would be part of a character's strength and only backfire on them in SFF matches, making the "franchise voting" arguing fairly useless in general even if it was true. It wouldn't just work off and on for no real reason at all.
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Actually Chichiri is correct; I should've said "There have long been hypotheses like this, and they've always proved ineffective."
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I cannot wait for Vincent/Dante to be over so this whole thing will be put to rest.. at least until the next Vincent match. but still, that's two weeks away from arguing about Vincent.

I don't think so since we will have some kind of a reading by then.
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From: transience | Posted: 8/29/2005 11:44:51 PM | Message Detail
I cannot wait for Vincent/Dante to be over so this whole thing will be put to rest.. at least until the next Vincent match. but still, that's two weeks away from arguing about Vincent.

omfg Vincent SSFed Dante/Dante rSSFed Vincent. >__________________>;;;;;
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I don't think so. next we'll likely have Squall, which means tons of discussion regarding where the SFF goes, how Squall isn't liked, how Vincent is loved, how Squall is the main character and Vincent isn't, etc. it's impossible to stop talking about Vincent.
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omfg Vincent SSFed Dante/Dante rSSFed Vincent. >__________________>;;;;;

Sadly I could see this happening.
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Name-calling? Calling delusional people delusional is not name-calling, it is calling out the nature of their position.

And calling you "arrogant" would be calling out the nature of your position? No, that would be personally attacking you.

Few were thinking 30%-40%. Most were thinking 35%-45%. And there were plenty saying that she would challenge Vincent, and saying it was unreasonable to think otherwise; when the truth was nothing of the sort. And this truth was known by many, and those same many are saying the same thing now.

Assuming that's the case, I stand corrected. I'll admit that I wasn't reading every topic, but from what I skimmed, it seemed at the time that no one seriously believed she had a chance.

Nooo...by definition, that was as not-obvious as you can get. Given that not one single person predicted it.

The whole "hind-sight is 20/20" thing, etc. I think it should've been expected, not that it was or that anyone did. Maybe its analagous to Magus vs. Knuckles in that aspect.

I agree, but being informed means nothing if you absolutely refuse to accept any shred of actual evidence that is overwhelmingly agaisnt you.

True. But they aren't necessarily ignoring how well Vincent did; just suggesting that it could be because Kerrigan is weaker than anyone thought, or maybe a combination of Kerrigan's weakness and Vincent's strength.

And the suggestion that Kerrigan is weaker than Guybrush, for example, isn't grasping at straws - it is a real, though unlikely, possibility.

And it seems rather clear just from the responses of the people so far that the vast majority agrees that Vincent will win - the real argument comes more from just how much he will win by.

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