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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 223
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:08:05 PM | Message Detail
Nope, you're wrong.

Once gain...Ganon vs. Tidus demolished Kirby vs. Tidus in votes, even considering the difference between 2003 and 2005. And we all know, Kirby 2k5 >>> Ganon 2k3.

And then look at Kirby vs. Tidus and Tidus vs. The King. From those vote totals, we can obviously conclude that The King > Kirby. It's just one of those A > B > C > A chains, as Tidus is The King's one weakness.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:08:27 PM | Message Detail
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 8:07:09 PM | Message Detail
Considering Crono doubled Dante in 2k2 and Dante has increased since then, Vincent would have to get somewhere between 68-70% to have a shot at Crono.


You went the wrong way on the percents. ^_-
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From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:08:58 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it's been said many a time that Vincent would need to get 70 on Dante, which is absolutely ridiculous to me... I have no problem accepting that Vincent might win, and I even consider him the favorite, but 70 is just way too far out there for me.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:09:25 PM | Message Detail
Considering Crono doubled Dante in 2k2 and Dante has increased since then, Vincent would have to get somewhere between 68-70% to have a shot at Crono.

Don't forget, Dante's gone up to. I'll consider Vincent the favorite if he does better than Crono, who came just short of the doubling.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:09:45 PM | Message Detail
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 3:07:46 PM | Message Detail
At this point I don't care if Dante loses (though it will be better if he did) all I really want is all the Vincent > Crono supporters to shut up.


Uhh... did you mean "wins" there?

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:09:53 PM | Message Detail
Vincent will have his hands full with Knuckles.

*chuckles*
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:10:51 PM | Message Detail
Obviously the individual vote total isn't everything. But to say it's worthless is wrong. Look at those who have gotten the highest of highest. Even those who have massive blowouts in their favor - Bowser, Ryu, of note - didn't manage to grace 75K.

Put it up to 90000, then we'll talk about Mega Man vs. Tifa/Vincent.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:10:56 PM | Message Detail
Knux/Snake IV!

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:11:18 PM | Message Detail
At this point I don't care if Dante loses (though it will be better if he won) all I really want is all the Vincent > Crono supporters to shut up.

FIXED!
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:12:39 PM | Message Detail
Haha.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:15:50 PM | Message Detail
I'm still not putting much stock into Kerrigan being worth anything.

Vincent will win his division, sure, but he'll be losing to Crono.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:18:50 PM | Message Detail
Once gain...Ganon vs. Tidus demolished Kirby vs. Tidus in votes, even considering the difference between 2003 and 2005. And we all know, Kirby 2k5 >>> Ganon 2k3.

And then look at Kirby vs. Tidus and Tidus vs. The King. From those vote totals, we can obviously conclude that The King > Kirby. It's just one of those A > B > C > A chains, as Tidus is The King's one weakness.


1) 2003's vote totals are far different from 2005's vote totals.

2) Sarcasm is not a tactic in debating.
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The Power is Yours.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:20:51 PM | Message Detail
as Tidus is The King's one weakness.

We agree.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:20:59 PM | Message Detail
Unless Vincent breaks 67% he doesn't really have a chance to win, though it might easily be close. Again, while possible, I'm not arrogant or biased enough to predict it based on the available evidence. Crono, unlike Dante, HAS been past 75K, hell, he hit 85k against Tom Nook without breaking a sweat.

Crono is ungodly strong and Vincent would have to put up insanely impressive numbers on Dante to have a chance, because if he could beat Crono, he could outright win the 64 character battle. None of which means it's unlikey he'll break 60% on Dante.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:20:59 PM | Message Detail
Vote totals mean absolutely nothing. Kirby/Tidus had 10k more votes than Bowser/Ryu, but Kirby still doesn't stand a chance against Bowser, for instance.
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From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:21:10 PM | Message Detail
2) Sarcasm is not a tactic in debating.

Why not? If it brings up a point like he did that is valid, then it's a great tactic.

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Explicit Content.
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From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:26:15 PM | Message Detail
I said before that I wouldin't be surprised if Vincent could SFF Crono. If he can double Crono then he would be extremely close to him in power and most likely be able to SFF Crono enough for the win.
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:29:24 PM | Message Detail
you mean, Dante?
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:30:30 PM | Message Detail
1) 2003's vote totals are far different from 2005's vote totals.

I'd concede the point, but...

Once gain...Ganon vs. Tidus demolished Kirby vs. Tidus in votes, even considering the difference between 2003 and 2005. And we all know, Kirby 2k5 >>> Ganon 2k3.

It's sad when people fail at reading. And regardless of whether or not the second point was sarcastic, it's still true that Tidus vs. The King got more votes than Tidus vs. Kirby, despite Kirby being stronger and Nintendo vs. Square.

And once again...Mega Man is one of four characters to break 90000, but there's still no way to rationalize him even being close to Sephy (post-KH, of course).
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:31:18 PM | Message Detail
I said before that I wouldin't be surprised if Vincent could SFF Crono. If he can double Crono then he would be extremely close to him in power and most likely be able to SFF Crono enough for the win.

Squall couldn't SFF Geno, why would Vincent SFF Crono?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:32:11 PM | Message Detail
Squall couldn't SFF Geno, why would Vincent SFF Crono?

How do you know that?

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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:33:02 PM | Message Detail
Squall couldn't SFF Geno, why would Vincent SFF Crono?

How do you know that?


...The same way I know that Kerrigan is stronger than Tanner and weaker than Samus.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:33:22 PM | Message Detail
How do you know that? Geno's an unknown.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:34:02 PM | Message Detail
...The same way I know that Kerrigan is stronger than Tanner and weaker than Samus.

BLASPHEMY!

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:35:14 PM | Message Detail
I awaited a better explanation <__<

Well, it's only a speculation. Maybe Geno is weak as hell.
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:36:41 PM | Message Detail
I would expect Geno to be weak as hell.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:36:55 PM | Message Detail
It's sad when people fail at reading.

Again, a pointless line. I could just as easily say "It's sad when people fail at logic", and it would be just as meaningless. Maybe I'm weird, but even on board 8 I have a tendency not to use immature insults.

And regardless of whether or not the second point was sarcastic, it's still true that Tidus vs. The King got more votes than Tidus vs. Kirby, despite Kirby being stronger and Nintendo vs. Square.


Yeah. There will always be fluctuation. However, you said that vote totals are utterly meaningless... which is clearly wrong.

And once again...Mega Man is one of four characters to break 90000, but there's still no way to rationalize him even being close to Sephy (post-KH, of course).


He had... ridiculously easy competition... and I mean ridiculous. Individual votes don't gauge percentages like the X-stats do. But it takes a certain amount of popularity to break that much. Some polls don't even get 90K votes total.

Also, the year that Mega Man broke 90K was 2003, was it not? The year where he was the fourth strongest character?
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The Power is Yours.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:37:06 PM | Message Detail
I awaited a better explanation <__<

Well, it's only a speculation. Maybe Geno is weak as hell.


Heh, if you want something more serious. Geno >>> Terra as is, something that doesn't make much sense. The more SFF Squall gets on Geno, the wider the gap between him and Terra.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:39:32 PM | Message Detail
Also, the year that Mega Man broke 90K was 2003, was it not? The year where he was the fourth strongest character?

The year where Samus was the fourth strongest character, I think you mean. My point was that he got more votes than Sephy, and lost to him with under 40%.

And apologies for immature insults.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:41:14 PM | Message Detail
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Mega Man is a hair above Mario and Crono, cleanly ahead of Samus.
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The Power is Yours.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:41:18 PM | Message Detail
Vote totals mean absolutely nothing. Kirby/Tidus had 10k more votes than Bowser/Ryu, but Kirby still doesn't stand a chance against Bowser, for instance.

People thought the same thing when Cloud threw up 94k against CATS, as it turns out they were wrong. A character's individual and match vote total says alot about their strength, if kept in context to their contest and round. High overall totals indicate that voters in general feel strongly about at least one of the characters (Thus why Tidus and Squall ALWAYS has high vote totals, though I'm not sure if the extra people are voting for him or against him)

Individual vote totals can give you a general indication of how strong a character is, even if you don't know the strength of their opponent. Luigi, for instance, while not as strong as some, is still a decently strong character, and his 70K vote totals, while against relatively weak opponents (and we still don't know the one against KOS-MOS indicates that, it's always possible Luigi got insanely strong.)

You'd be foolish to rely completely on vote totals, but you'd be just as foolish to ignore them.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:42:25 PM | Message Detail
To concede a poitn though, I am baffled to why Tidus vs Kirby wasn't more popular. Both are huge vote-drawers.
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The Power is Yours.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:44:47 PM | Message Detail
Kirby-Tidus had 102,000 votes, it was the seventh most popular match this contest. 0_o
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:47:18 PM | Message Detail
Oh well in that case...

I guess there's nothing to withdraw. Tidus vs KoaC was the weird poll. And yes, weird polls do happen.
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The Power is Yours.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:49:20 PM | Message Detail
Tidus vs. KoaC was 8th, with 101,000. :P
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:50:01 PM | Message Detail
... Dammit! Who's trying to mess with my head!? Does Mac Arrowny have ANY sort of logic then?
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The Power is Yours.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:51:49 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man is a hair above Mario and Crono, cleanly ahead of Samus.

ZOMG Jill > Sora? WTF Hayabusa lost??!! Everyone loves unadjusted stats. Those same stats have Felix getting 62% on Isaac, by the way, but no, there certainly wasn't SFF involved in that.

Tidus vs. KoaC was 8th, with 101,000. :P

Hmm, looks like the facts > my memory. Guess it wasn't losing the whole time. But still, compare something like Magus vs. Ganon and Tidus vs. Ganon or Magus vs. Sam Fisher. A bizarre triangle of strange vote totals if there ever was one.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:54:32 PM | Message Detail
Crono has moved up .47% since I left this morning.

Intense stuff here.

And DAYUM, if DK would have won, that would have hurt just about every bracket. Chief had a great percentage.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Crono vs. Vercetti - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (44/50)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:54:32 PM | Message Detail
Support for Link SFFing Samus is weak at best. Felix getting 62% on Isaac is due to Felix overperforming on Master Chief.

And Magus was never much of a vote draw. Your guess is as good as mine for what the hell went on there, but it's a general consensus that Magus was overrated in 2003, anyway.
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The Power is Yours.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:56:26 PM | Message Detail
ZOMG Jill > Sora? WTF Hayabusa lost??!! Everyone loves unadjusted stats. Those same stats have Felix getting 62% on Isaac, by the way, but no, there certainly wasn't SFF involved in that.

Felix never faced Isaac. As far as we know, there WAS no SFF involved in that Stat. The only thing anyone could think of was that people hate the X-Box and like characters with swords. And Aeris SFF > Sora was obvious, but doesn't change anything about Megaman's rank in 2k3. I have no earthly idea what you're talking about. Unless you're suggesting Samus somehow SFF'd Isaac?

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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 12:57:25 PM | Message Detail
And more proof that individual vote totals don't mean much:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1310
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1309

Luigi was supposed to be a threat to Samus and possibly a threat to Link. He was the single most hyped character. It was reinforced when Luigi tripled a popular platforming character (and broke 70k in votes at that) while Squall "struggled" with Jill.

Then:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1339

This happened. Squall completely dominated Luigi, and it was amazing to see how foderrific Ratchet was and how strong Jill Valentine was. While I don't think Dante will beat Vincent so badly (Dante might not even win at all), people are seriously overhyping Vincent, and he will not perform to expectations, much like Luigi.

People are also underestimating Terra (much like Jill Valentine) and overestimating Kerrigan (much like Ratchet). I think Terra >>> Kerrigan, but I don't know by how much.

Well, that's my two cents.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:01:52 PM | Message Detail
If you want other examples, here's some from 2k2:

Snake vs. Squall was second only to Cloud vs. Fox in round 1 vote totals, and it beat out Snake vs. Knux, despite Knux > Squall. Crono vs. Lara was more popular than Crono vs. Dante, and we all know how a match between Lara and Dante would turn out.

Sonic vs. Pitfall Harry got a better total than Samus vs. Ken. Mega Man vs. Serious Sam got a better total than Sephy vs. Crash. Aya vs. Terry got a better total than DK vs. Bub (Bub > Terry? Funny, but true.), etc. As Ulti is so fond of saying...

lol vote totals
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:02:41 PM | Message Detail
Link SFF on Samus? I suppose it's possible, but not exactly provable. Megaman/Samus is one of like 6 matches between Mario, Samus, Megaman, and Crono I'd give my pancreas to see.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Nai | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:04:03 PM | Message Detail
Side characters may make great performance against weaker characters, but in hard match they'll surely lose many votes.

Reading various posts, it seems that someone consider Vincent as strong as Cloud, even capable to win the Summer Contest (well, the first 64-character bracket, that is)... but I don't think Vincent will go far against strong characters.

Vincent would not beat Mario, for instance.
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From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:05:12 PM | Message Detail
Luigi was supposed to be a threat to Samus and possibly a threat to Link. He was the single most hyped character. It was reinforced when Luigi tripled a popular platforming character (and broke 70k in votes at that) while Squall "struggled" with Jill.

While hype may not do much, it may have helped Luigi against Ratchet. But... as we know, this "popular platforming character" turned out to be... er, not so popular. Squall was projected to lose to Jill in 2002, so I don't know what you're talking about there.

You'll also notice that Squall vs Luigi had an insane vote total in comparison with the 94-95K vote totals of their round 1 matches.
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:06:39 PM | Message Detail
It had higher vote totals because it was a Square/Nintendo match.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:07:10 PM | Message Detail
Not that this is really that relevant, but Dante *has* broken 70,000 votes:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1332
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From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:08:27 PM | Message Detail
Support for Link SFFing Samus is weak at best. Felix getting 62% on Isaac is due to Felix overperforming on Master Chief.


I was partly talking about Samus SFFing Isaac too, something that nobody ever seems to mention.

Felix never faced Isaac. As far as we know, there WAS no SFF involved in that Stat. The only thing anyone could think of was that people hate the X-Box and like characters with swords.

Apparently all those Xbox haters are Sony haters too...just look how poorly Crash did. GS >>> TLA, IIRC.

And Aeris SFF > Sora was obvious, but doesn't change anything about Megaman's rank in 2k3.

And I also think Samus 2k3 > MM 2k3...and Mario 2k3 > MM 2k3, for that matter, thanks to WDF part 2. Almost everyone in MM's division suffered substantial drops in 2k4, and I believe that there was at least some SFF in Samus vs. Link.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:09:33 PM | Message Detail
Considering that 2002 was the single most ****ed up year (save perhaps this one)... and considering that it had the most erratic vote totals of them all, I don't think it's fair to compare 2002 with this year, or in fact any other contests.
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The Power is Yours.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/29/2005 1:11:30 PM | Message Detail
Ha, I was just thinking about stat fads, the best one, even if we never believed it, was Samus > Cloud last year, especially when she put two matches in a row to show so.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
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