I can't wait until Dante gets his face kicked in. It has little to do with the annoyance of the Dante supporters (though seeing their self-pwnings will be a nice bonus); I simply can't stand Dante or Devil May Cry, and love the hell out of Vincent and FF7. I'm out of the contest, so I'm just rooting for my favorites from here on in.

From the image I've gotten from this topic, Vincent winning is all but guaranteed. People are way overestimating him from one match based on a new character.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Now, I'm sure there some people out there believe Bowser will beat Snake after performing better against Ryu than Snake did. But, a lot of you guys also say that Snake underperformed significantly with the "Solid ****" picture against Frog. Now, Snake also had a "Solid ****" picture against Ryu, now, so surely he should have significantly underperformed there, too. Now, so what looked like Bowser performing better is not necessarily true, if you take that into account.

Now, I don't know if someone else has pointed this out, as I haven't bothered looking. But, I don't really care, if they have, this point needed to be made twice (or more >_>).

I've actually been thinking that the trifectas overperformance last year thanks to Frog's match with Snake was the clearest evidence we'll ever get that pics can be a factor if both characters are decently strong. And you're right, it would explain Bowser's massive surge. Besides Bowser, the rest of the Nintendo characters showed some increase but not ubelievable ones. Zelda, for instance, is actually only a point or 2 better than she would have been projected against 2k3 Solid Snake.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

My problem with him being that strong is he'd have to beat Dante 70-30, if my memory serves me, that is what was said in a previous topic to put Vincent at 40%. That's just too much for me to fathom.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

I'd say 04 dropped because of the position of the poll - you're going to get less votes when you have to go out your way to see it.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Vicnent was the favorite over Dante before the contest even began. Vincent's slaughtering of Kerrigan only reinforced that thought.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

I'd bet a good amount of money that it's the banner. The contest awareness this year was 60% according to the "Submitted your bracket?" poll this year, as opposed to <50% in all past contests.

The rise of Nintendo is probably attributable to this as well, especially the Gamespotters that may or may not have been drawn here by the banner on their site.
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The Power is Yours.

To add to that, is there any reason why there are so many more voters? Does a good bracket make that much of a difference? And even then, we've only gotten (at a very rough estimate) an increase of ~5-15k in most matches, if that.

And as an addition onto the theory... There are about 5k to 15k MORE voters than last year showing up for every match. However, the number of people who vote regularly in the contest that did not vote a year ago has probably increased, because some of the people who voted in 2004 aren't around anymore... allowing for even more of a change in the biases in the voting pool from last year to this.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

I've always thought that Snake's sprite picture has led to him underperforming against both Ryu and Frog, but let's be serious--the picture he got against Ryu was FAR better than he got against Frog, as it had both a better sprite and his MGS2 mug art as the background. Top that off with Frog getting his own sprite, when it seems now that CT characters *might* (stressing this) overperform with a sprite, and we see the result. In short, I think he might have underperformed by a half percent or so, but that it's quite clear that at least statistically, Bowser 2k5 > Snake 2k3. However, I think Snake is above his 2k3 level now, for reasons I've stated before.

The CT sprite factor, true or false, brings up an interesting theory, though. In 2k2, Crono was able to give Mario a relatively close match, despite having cheat votes taken away (and depending on what you take out of Ceej's later statements, he may not have had all the blatant ones taken away). He had no sprite for that picture, yet was still able to make it close. However, this is where my theory comes in--that lower vote totals tend to favor CT characters, and higher vote totals tend to hurt them.

So, in 2k3, we see a match where Crono gets a sprite. He manages to almost win it, and Mario comes back in the end to nab a dubious victory. Higher vote totals are, theoretically, countered by the sprite, and you get similar results.

And finally, in 2k4, we have lower vote totals again. And Crono gets another sprite against Mario--his best sprite. The match is never in doubt for him the entire day, and he wins comfortably.

Just a theory of mine, and it likely messes with the X-Stats and transitivity, linearity, what have you. I don't really care though. I have Crono winning the contest, but even with what he's doing today I've lost a lot of faith in him. Whether it be against Samus or Mario, it's highly doubtful the final round will be a true sprite round (it will likely have alternating pictures). I don't think the high vote totals will favor CT in general. And an all around 'Nintendo boost', if true, would only bode worse for him.

But that's just me.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I so hope Vincent doubles Dante although I like Dante myself..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/29/2005 2:47:27 PM | Message Detail
I'd say 04 dropped because of the position of the poll - you're going to get less votes when you have to go out your way to see it.

Extremely simple concept, but the best reason I've heard.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

If you used the SSBM factor as a reason for MH over Kuja, I have a ton of respect for you.

I considered especially the SSBM run in the Spring Contest of the previous year... and since I never played any Final Fantasy game, I didn't know who Kuja was. So, in my ignorance I was lucky =P
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Currently playing: Killer7 [GC] + Yoshi Touch & Go [DS]

To add to that, is there any reason why there are so many more voters? Does a good bracket make that much of a difference? And even then, we've only gotten (at a very rough estimate) an increase of ~5-15k in most matches, if that.

I really think that the layout change, combined with the fact that a significant number of match polls were below "bonus" sponsored polls of the day lowered the number of voters.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

I, too would love for Dante to win just because of how annoying the Vincent supporters are. I can't remember any stats fads as annoying as Vincent over Crono, and I hate Crono.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I don't expect Dante to beat Vincent, however, I also can't see Vincent absolutely killing Dante. The only thing that is annoyed was that when Dante slaughtered Terra it was all her weakness, yet when Vincent did the same to Kerrigan, it was all his power. This has been said before, but it needs to be repeated.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

The Vincent supporters haven't really been bad with Dante... yet. They were much worse before Kerrigan, (I had Vincent) and HORRIBLE after. Not everybody mind you, because that would just be ignorant to say, but it got pretty ugly.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Well there's a difference between 71% and 79%

If Dante had been the one to get 79% things would be different.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Yes, everyone jumping on the Vincent > Crono (or those who have been riding it from the start) have one match off a new character to base all of their hopes on.

Both Vincent and Tifa can lose their next rounds, and I'm hoping they both do.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

The worst stats fad was definitely Mega Man over Link.
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The Power is Yours.

I don't expect Dante to beat Vincent, however, I also can't see Vincent absolutely killing Dante. The only thing that is annoyed was that when Dante slaughtered Terra it was all her weakness, yet when Vincent did the same to Kerrigan, it was all his power. This has been said before, but it needs to be repeated.

Agreed. Before the first round, Terra > Dante was just as accepted as Kerrigan > Vincent, but after the match happened, Terra is just weak, but it's ludicrous to think Kerrigan could be that weak. With that said, I think FF characters are constantly overrated in these contests, save for FFX and FFVII.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

How would it be arrogant to note a character performed very well and consider the possibility that the might do very well?

Were you even here?
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle

From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 2:54:04 PM | Message Detail
The worst stats fad was definitely Mega Man over Link.

Damn you HM! You made me belieeeeeeeeve.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Though I have to admit... it was a lot more fun.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

With that said, I think FF characters are constantly overrated in these contests, save for FFX and FFVII.

Do you notice the irony in this post?
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The Power is Yours.

Both Vincent and Tifa can lose their next rounds, and I'm hoping they both do

Well, if Vincent lose, that's good for my bracket. For the two characters I don't mind... while for Tifa... I'd like to see Luigi winning, but I have her winning on my bracket =/
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Currently playing: Killer7 [GC] + Yoshi Touch & Go [DS]

save for FFX and FFVII.

X? Hi, there, Tidus, Auron, and Rikku! The only one that did halfway decent this contest was Yuna.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I would also (and did >_>) take Terra over Kerrigan though. I mean, for Vincent to beat Dante with over 62% how weak would that make Terra?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

BTW, Vincent beating Dante 70-30 would mean he'd have an excellent shot at Sephiroth and an outside shot at '03 Link and Cloud, while putting up 45-47% on '04 Link. While I acknowledge the possibility, even I'm not biased enough about Vincent to predict he's THAT strong.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

Rikku did pretty well for herself, too. 45% on Ryu is pretty respectable.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

I'm predicting another *****-slap to the stats by Vincent though. A massive win or a near-loss (or possibly an actual loss).
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The Power is Yours.

Assuming Rikku = unadjusted Tidus 2k4, where would that put Ryu right now?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

X? Hi, there, Tidus, Auron, and Rikku! The only one that did halfway decent this contest was Yuna.

Actually, using Ganondorf's spring numbers, Auron's gone up in the standings. Even using Ganondorf 2k3, he's slightly stronger than he was last year.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

Do you notice the irony in this post?

Yeah, actually I did, I believe Vincent will be the exception, I expect Tifa to be strong, but I don't see Vincent being much more than 30%. I know that's still considered strong, and it is.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

And racking up the votes means nothing at all. Mega Man got more votes than Sephiroth in SC2k3 R1, and their match wasn't even close. Samus was over 10000 behind Mario and Crono. Dante was ahead of Sonic. Ganon vs. Tidus was the highest scoring match of Round 1, and guess what? Both of them were midcarders at best, and Ganon lost to Magus (who had the second-lowest vote total). Samus vs. Isaac and Sonic vs. Ken both had higher vote totals than Link vs. Aiai, etc etc. And let's not forget all the second round matches we've seen this contest with lower vote totals than the first round.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

X? Hi, there, Tidus, Auron, and Rikku! The only one that did halfway decent this contest was Yuna.

Auron is still strong, and even though Tidus is weaker than we thought, he's not complete garbage.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

And racking up the votes means nothing at all.

Nope, you're wrong.
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The Power is Yours.

From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2005 3:01:10 PM | Message Detail
And racking up the votes means nothing at all. Mega Man got more votes than Sephiroth in SC2k3 R1, and their match wasn't even close. Samus was over 10000 behind Mario and Crono. Dante was ahead of Sonic. Ganon vs. Tidus was the highest scoring match of Round 1, and guess what? Both of them were midcarders at best, and Ganon lost to Magus (who had the second-lowest vote total). Samus vs. Isaac and Sonic vs. Ken both had higher vote totals than Link vs. Aiai, etc etc. And let's not forget all the second round matches we've seen this contest with lower vote totals than the first round.

I love you. I've never accepted the higher vote totals theory.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Actually, using Ganondorf's spring numbers, Auron's gone up in the standings. Even using Ganondorf 2k3, he's slightly stronger than he was last year.

Between Tails, Scorpion, and Ness, we have a pretty strong indication that Auron was SFF'd in the past by Cloud and Sephiroth. Auron definitely disappointed.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Nope, you're wrong.

Explain Kirby/Tee-dus.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono

People still think Dante has a chance in hell of winning tomorrow?

63% for Vincent. At least.

Consider it BOOK IT'D.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Let's change for a moment the topic of the discussion...

I went on vacation the day Round 2 started and I came back home today. How did the board reacted to the various matches? Did Kirby create an upset? I also saw Donkey Kong almost beat Master Chief, what happened in the board during that day?

Tell me, I'm curious =P
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Currently playing: Killer7 [GC] + Yoshi Touch & Go [DS]

Obviously the individual vote total isn't everything. But to say it's worthless is wrong. Look at those who have gotten the highest of highest. Even those who have massive blowouts in their favor - Bowser, Ryu, of note - didn't manage to grace 75K.
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The Power is Yours.

What would Vincent have to get on Dante to be a match for Crono anyway?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Nope, you're wrong.

Wow, that's not arrogant at all.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Kirby started strong and never looked back. Donkey Kong gained a lead of well over 2000 votes, then choked it all away to give Master Chief the largest successful comeback win ever.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Crono doubled Dante in 2002.
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The Power is Yours.

Wow, that's not arrogant at all.

His statement was a tad more arrogant. But ... humbleness is not a strong point in the stats topic, as you may have noticed.
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The Power is Yours.

Considering Crono doubled Dante in 2k2 and Dante has increased since then, Vincent would have to get somewhere between 68-70% to have a shot at Crono.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono

Kirby started strong and never looked back. Donkey Kong gained a lead of well over 2000 votes, then choked it all away to give Master Chief the largest successful comeback win ever.

That's Chokey Kong for ya...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

At this point I don't care if Dante loses (though it will be better if he did) all I really want is all the Vincent > Crono supporters to shut up.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.