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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 223
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:34:34 AM | Message Detail
It's quite likely to break 100,000. Matches should be more end loaded as school starts back.

BOOM GOES THE CRONOMITE!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:39:31 AM | Message Detail
Who do you guys think will be the favorite in tomorrow's match?? (GameFAQs percent prediction wise)

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:40:06 AM | Message Detail
CRO-NO-MIIIIITE!!!

I expect Dante and Vincet to look as identical as CJay can make possible in their pic tomorrow; I just know it better be a great pic, whatever he does.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:40:07 AM | Message Detail
Go Crono! Nice to see he's still an ownage beast! Still not as confident in my Crono > Samus final as I was at the beginning though...Even more so now with the FF7 crew tearing all amounts of ass.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:40:38 AM | Message Detail
Vincent will be exposed by Dante tomorrow.

Dante - 51%
Vincent - 49%
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:41:04 AM | Message Detail
Vincent will at least get 55% tomorrow..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:41:58 AM | Message Detail
I think Vincent will be the bracket favorite, though not by much.

And yes, Vincent will be exposed tomorrow: either as a flop, a nigh-elite, or a full-fledged monster.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:42:45 AM | Message Detail
I am hoping he will be exposed as a full-fledged monster

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:42:45 AM | Message Detail
And yes, Vincent will be exposed tomorrow: either as a flop, a nigh-elite, or a full-fledged monster.

I agree, though I'm leaning towards the first one.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:44:53 AM | Message Detail
Flood Division Wrap-Up (useless information included)

Master Chief
Record: 4-2
Next Match: Crono
First appearance in the third round

CATS
Record: 0-5

Donkey Kong
Record: 4-4
Has failed to reach the third round since 2002

Sam Fisher
Record: 1-3
First appearance in a contest as a lower seed (in this case, #5-#8)

Kefka
Record: 3-4
Hasn't won a Summer Contest match since 2003

Tommy Vercetti
Record: 4-3
Has never lost in the first round in any contest

Crono
Record: 11-3
Next Match: Master Chief
Hasn't lost to anyone outside Nintendo

Zidane
Record: 0-1
FFIX's overall character record is now 1-4
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GameFAQs: Where Wesker, HK-47, Ryu Hayabusa, Agent 47, and Alucard lose to kids.
Nominate Jericho Cross for the SC2k6 Contest!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:45:05 AM | Message Detail
And Dante will be the bracket favorite. Look at Kirby vs. Tidus.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:46:10 AM | Message Detail
I think Vincent will have the advantage solely because he's FFVII, and many are convinced that FFVII just never loses.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:46:50 AM | Message Detail
So am I.

I hate that people say that Kerrigan can't be as weak as Denton. Why not since Ratchet and Kuja as about just as weak and I wouldn't take Denton over them.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:46:56 AM | Message Detail
I think the one seed will give Dante the favorite bracket..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:47:11 AM | Message Detail
True, but Tidus didn't have that great bracket backing against Kirby. Not to mention Vincent only had about 75% of the brackets vs. Kerrigan.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:47:13 AM | Message Detail
The brackets will have a fairly even split. I'd say 40% on Vincent, 35% on Dante, and 25% splitting Terra and Kerrigan.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:47:35 AM | Message Detail
You know how people have suggested the nearly all of the same people who voted Cloud over Vyse voted Tifa over her too, which is why she likely appears stronger then she is? I'm predicting the same for Vincent. Maybe he just looks like Cloud's strength because everyone who would vote for Cloud over Kerrigan voted for him. I honestly think Dante can still win.

If nothing else, I hope Dante wins so that all the people who said Vincent was a lock look like morons and Lopen and Draco can spend the whole day deservedly gloating.
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I need to put something here.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:48:52 AM | Message Detail
Only? If it had been a 1/8, Vincent would've had upwards of 80-85% prediction percentage, simply because of the mentality of being a 1 seed. Getting 75% as a 5 is impressive. Heck, Sora had 35% as a 2 likely because of the hype GoW caused. Vincent is from FFVII. He'll have a lot of support.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:50:05 AM | Message Detail
Er...That should read 90-95%.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:50:53 AM | Message Detail
Only?

40% is pretty good.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:51:00 AM | Message Detail
I dunno. Dante had a damn good portion of the brackets vs. Terra. The one seed tag influences people into picking them to win in their brackets. Vincent's percentage wasn't terribly impressive when you factor in how unrecognizable Kerrigan may be.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:52:13 AM | Message Detail
Make Terra/Dante a 4 vs. 5, and I guarantee his percentage wouldn't be that high.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:52:15 AM | Message Detail
Oh, damn. I forgot how badly Dante killed Terra in prediction percentage.

Make that 45% for Dante and 40% for Vincent, then.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:52:50 AM | Message Detail
And since the Devil Division starts tomorrow, here's a small tid-bit on these guys...

Dante Sparda
Record: 4-3
Next Match: Vincent
Has never beaten a Square character (though he's only faced one)

Terra Branford
Record: 0-1
FF6 overall record (not counting the game in Sp2k4): 3-5

Sarah Kerrigan
Record: 0-1
First time anything from Blizzard has lost in round 1

Vincent Valentine
Record: 1-0
Next Match: Dante
FF7 overall record for now: 37-7

Magus Zeal
Record: 3-3
First round 1 exit. First loss to non-noble nine character.

Knuckles the Echidna
Record: 4-3
Next Match: Squall Leonhart
First time not being paired with Solid Snake. 3-0 against Square characters.

Squall Leonhart
Record: 5-3
Next Match: Knuckles the Echidna
Has never faced a Sega character in any contest.

Geno
Record: 0-1
First appearance by an exclusive SMRPG character.
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GameFAQs: Where Wesker, HK-47, Ryu Hayabusa, Agent 47, and Alucard lose to kids.
Nominate Jericho Cross for the SC2k6 Contest!
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:53:31 AM | Message Detail
Has never beaten a Square character (though he's only faced one)

Terra.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:53:32 AM | Message Detail
I think Vincent will get about 44% of the brackets if he wins.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:54:32 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:55:41 AM | Message Detail
3-0 against Square characters.

Will be 3-1 in a few days

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:56:08 AM | Message Detail
*Sigh* Still no power....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:56:47 AM | Message Detail
And another thing. Breaking 70% on a Square character is no easy feat (if you are not Noble Nine). Kirby did the same thing in Round 1. Dante will at least perform respectably against Vincent.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 9:59:36 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'd take Terra over Cecil without question, and I figure Kirby and Dante'll be close in strength again as usual.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:08:35 AM | Message Detail
All the Vincent talk amuses me. A few days before Kerrigan, it was "Vincent will probably beat Dante, but his road likely stops there." Then it was "Vincent definitely beats Dante, and is a threat to win the division." Then, "Vincent isn't touched in this division now that Magus is gone." Now it's gotten all the way to "Vincent takes out Crono and wins the contest." Seriously, stop hyping based off of fodder. I love Kerrigan and it hurts me to see her as fodder, but after everything we've seen I simply can't see her being much stronger than Gordon Freeman, and that's being optimistic. She's in an ensemble cast on a popular PC game. Sound familiar? You're right, it doesn't. Freeman is at least a main character.

Funny, I remember all the people who kept yapping about how close a match Kerrigan/Vincent was going to be. MMXCallibur had that as the brainbuster match of the Division. I somehow doubt he was the only one who thought so. Once Vincent squashed her like a ripe tomato, though, suddenly everyone is talking about how she's obviously fodder. Vincent has always been one of the more popular FFVII characters on Gamefaqs, and he's also one of the least hated. You don't pull down the second highest individual vote total in the contest if you're not in the upper tiers, which I think some people are forgetting. Here's the complete list of characters that have ever broken 75,000 votes

Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Megaman
Mario
Crono
Solid Snake
Samus
Vincent
Tifa

That's it. Bottom line is, characters generally need to be a certain amount of strength to attract that high a vote total.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:09:44 AM | Message Detail
.. the lack of Sonic saddens me muchly so.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:11:46 AM | Message Detail
That's it. Bottom line is, characters generally need to be a certain amount of strength to attract that high a vote total.

So? Tidus broke 70k votes when he went up against the King. And we all know what happened to Tidus in round 2.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:12:31 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I was surprised he'd never done it, though if you include the SpC2k4 contest, Sonic 2 did so against Shining Force.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:12:57 AM | Message Detail
Actually, Tidus broke 73k in votes.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:25:06 AM | Message Detail
That's it. Bottom line is, characters generally need to be a certain amount of strength to attract that high a vote total.

And Squall broke 74000 votes against Geno, too. As much as I'd like to, I wouldn't consider him elite.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:30:00 AM | Message Detail
I hope that Crono will triple Vercetti.And about tomorrow I know that Vincent is the favorite,but Dante can win.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:31:23 AM | Message Detail
Breakin' 73,408 as the seeded-favorite and breakin' 79,200 as the seeded-underdog are two different things, and let's not forget that, unlike Tidus/KoaC, Vincent/Kerrigan WAS heavily debated; look at the BOP and you'll see there were numbers on both sides.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:34:47 AM | Message Detail
So? Tidus broke 70k votes when he went up against the King. And we all know what happened to Tidus in round 2.

Yes, plent of characters have broken 70K, but even for them, 74,000 is about the upper limit. Squall got 74,412 against Geno. But Vincent has never been in a summer contest before. And the last time one unknown beat down another as badly as Vincent beat down Kerrigan was 2k2. These factors add up. For Vincent to obliterate his opponent as a newcomer 5 seed is a serious indication he's a force to be reckoned with.

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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:36:56 AM | Message Detail
And for God's sake, for those of you who actually think Dante can win, who do you think is stronger, Vincent or Sora?
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:39:45 AM | Message Detail
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:36:56 AM | Message Detail
And for God's sake, for those of you who actually think Dante can win, who do you think is stronger, Vincent or Sora?


That would actually be a hard match to decide for me.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:40:21 AM | Message Detail
Aeris doubled Sora. You don't think Vincent could beat Sora down?
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:42:37 AM | Message Detail
Well, it's just that I think Vincent is weaker than Aeris, and that Sora's gotten alot stronger since.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:45:26 AM | Message Detail
That would actually be a hard match to decide for me.

*sigh* Even assuming you're right (Aeris-Sora says you're not) and Sora-Vincent is a 50/50 toss up, that leaves Vincent with around 53% on 2k3 Dante (In the Ganondorf-Link Adjusted 2k4, it's even worse, since Sora would be projected at around 57 or 58%. Personally, I suspect Vincent is a good deal stronger than Sora.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:46:30 AM | Message Detail
I think Dante is above his 2k3 levels.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:47:08 AM | Message Detail
The above assumes Alucard has remained relatively constant, which as far as I can tell we have no reason to doubt.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: RamzaB | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:50:00 AM | Message Detail
Will you still think that no matter what tomorrow, or will that, like the arguments for Kerrigan, morph into "obviously Dante is weaker than anyone thought" if Vincent wins?
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:50:49 AM | Message Detail
I doubt it. There are too many words to be eaten.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/29/2005 10:51:32 AM | Message Detail
If Vincent overperforms, I will be fully convinced that a random piece of furniture from FFVII would be a powerhouse. And I would credit it to Vincent's strength.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 42/50 points
Current Match Prediction: Tommy Vercetti vs. Crono
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