Master Chief, aren't you going to sit down?



....I'll be fine.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP

How about getting into the now?
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

How about getting into the now?

Nah, MC deserves yet another quote.

He reversed a 2044 vote deficit into a 1568 vote lead, how is that for awesome!

Vercetti doesn't deserve a quote with his choke job against Kefka, and Crono will have another day.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

He's the leader of the bunch, you know him well
He's finally back, to CHOKE some tail!
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

There's a such thing as a Crono quote, besides "..." and one of the endings?
---
BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Never eat a stoner. We have powers you havent even seen!

Wait so we are telling MC good job from going from a legit threat to Snake to a character that can barely beat Donkey Kong?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

Vincent >>>>>>> Dante

---
Score: 45/50 Now: Vercetti vs Crono
MechaMachine Score: 46/50 Pick: Crono over Vercetti

Cheifs > Vikings
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

<3 500th post.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero

We've already determined that whatever happened between frog and snake was an accident.
---
First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

Wait so we are telling MC good job from going from a legit threat to Snake to a character that can barely beat Donkey Kong?

After LS's bombing against Seph, followed by Frog's bombing against Samus, it's obvious that MC was nowhere near Snake.

In fact, if you plug in LS's Sp2k5 value or Frog's current value based on Samus 2k4 for MC, MC would be projected to LOSE to DK.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Making DK the statistical favorite. Hah. No wonder why he choked.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

An accident? What, like "Oops, didnt mean for you to slip on the soap on your way to victory Snake?" type accident. Frog overperformed, but MC still looks like absolute crap struggling to beat Donkey Kong. Would anyone before this contest projected this to be under a 51-49 match?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

Who knows? Maybe Donkey Kong rose to Crono-esque levels...

... yeah... that was just a stupid tag that didn't involve some inequality.
---
Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 3: (2) Crono.
Halo 2 + 7 vote loss vs Frog = 7 vote win vs Crono

Fact of the matter is, MC has a serious chance of being rated lower in 2005 than he was in 2003. AFTER Halo 2. Sorry, if Im not patting him on the back for that.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

So did Halo 2 do next to nothing or would Master Chief have lost to DK without it?
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Well of course not, but if they took the 2k4 values of those two charactres and predicted a 63-37 victory for MC I'd have called them nuts.

Oh, and if you use the 2k3 stats DK would take 48.45 on MC, so if not for the accident between Frog and Snake someone would have made a prediction that close.
---
First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

Solid **** = Screwed up Stats
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

An accident? What, like "Oops, didnt mean for you to slip on the soap on your way to victory Snake?" type accident. Frog overperformed, but MC still looks like absolute crap struggling to beat Donkey Kong. Would anyone before this contest projected this to be under a 51-49 match?

Liquid Snake 20.71%
Donkey Kong 23.55%
Frog 25.37%

Frog's value is based on Samus 2k4.

If MC = (Frog + LS) / 2, then this close match should be expected.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

That's too much work, the 2k3 stats called this match far too closely to bother with all that. Who said you can't trust 2 year old stats?
---
First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

I don't trust either DK or MC being as low as in the 23's. (of course I didn't trust Tidus' unadjusted number either...)

But I think it makes more sense for both of them to be in the 25%-26% range. DK's been there before, and that's about where Frog vs. Samus puts MC.

Though there's still a chance the "Nintendo increase" helped DK, and both him and MC (presumably due to Halo 2) are around the 27% range (you would also place Frog there since the hypothetical "Nintendo increase" would also apply to Samus).

If I had something at stake, I'm not really sure which data I'd go with. This is an unclear situation. Though I'd lean more towards the lower 25%ish numbers for both.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

*cough*they were both in the 25-26 range in 2k3*cough*
---
First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

Which is why I trust that range more. (along with Frog/Samus and DK/Fisher)
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Crono just lost nearly half a percentage point in one update.

OMG COMEBACK?
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

It's nice to see Crono doing well early on... I hope he can finish with over 70.

I love Crono for his character and his game, but I love him even more for what he's done in these contests - he's like the eternal underdog. In 2k2, no one expected him to be a contender... but he beat Snake, and gave Mario a great match. Then in 2k3, despite having made the final four, he gets a 4 seed and a third round match with Mario... once again he gives Mario the fight of his life, and suffers the most questionable loss in contest history where he led after 24 hours AND suffered from a massive vote surge for his opponent in the final minutes.

Then he comes back in 2k4, and not only does he still get a 3 seed instead of the 2 he deserves, but he has the hardest road in the entire contest, facing characters that we thought were top 10 starting in the SECOND round... remember that at the time many thought Magus was strong and had a legitimate chance of rSFFing Crono. But this time he gets past Magus and manages to BEAT Mario before putting on a great show in the inevitable loss to Link.

Next we get to 2k5, and even though there are now 8 divisions AND the big three are taken out, Crono still gets robbed of the top seed by Master Chief. Despite Crono beating him with over 53% last year, he has far fewer brackets behind him than Mario does, and by the end of round 1 lots of people are ready to give Crono's spot in the final four to Vincent. Constantly under-respected by the casual voters and CJayC, Crono's had to fight for ever single inch that he gets... no one deserves to win this contest more than him.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6

And he did it while increasing the lead. WHOAMG cheatz!
---
First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

"In 2k2, no one expected him to be a contender... "

Excuse me? I had the man, the myth, the legend known as Crono taking home the gold, thank you very much. And no, that's not a favorites bracket, in 2k2 if I was doing a favorites bracket Link would have been my boy (hmm... how painful, in retrospect)
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

Very nice post Kaxon.

and suffers the most questionable loss in contest history where he led after 24 hours AND suffered from a massive vote surge for his opponent in the final minutes

Damn, I had forgotten just how disgustingly unjust that loss was. I remember how upset I was after that travesty. Most likely it was George Romero I guess, but I had forgotten about the match lasting longer than 24 hours.

Go Crono :) Though it doesn't look like he'll be able to maintain 70% in this match.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Was Mario/Crono II the last time mass account suicides happened due to the result of one match? They don't really seem to happen much anymore...
---
[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right. LBSJ

Romero didn't do jack-crap in Mario/Crono.

He's not much better at lying than he was at vote stuffing. Particularly on a do-nothing worthless one point match with the inevitable "being fed to a wood-chipper like Crono" finish like Vercetti/Kefka. GR's far too inept to be some dark force looming over the whole of these tournaments.

Actually, the match started late... so even with the extra time Mario *clears throat* won within 24 hours. Of course, I've been calling Vincent = Mario since Mario > Crono so it's fair if I call him > Crono now (which I haven't, though I think it'll be too damn close).

In addition:
1) I'd pick Zidane over Joanna without a thought, so it doens't feel wrong for Crono to have less support. Also, with Ness having the advantage over CJ we can be certain that Crono is still going to be at a defecit to Mario after this round. I can see more casuals thinking either Kefka or tommy could pull it off.

2) Crono gains a seed every year, assuming the 8x8 returns next year and there's a ToC I'd bet he takes his rightful 1 seed... then again, it wasn't until the Villains contest that Seph got a 1 seed and he deserved it more than Crono and (in essence) never got it. Besides, Seeding isn't pure strength, and MC/Halo gets over nominated constantly.

3) Crono isn't underrespeected by the voters by any means. He is the second strongest character in the main bracket in terms of known strength. I think he's doing fince especially since he gained in strength twice.

4) Ceej respects no character (to paraphrase an old saying about god). He's never slighted Crono, no matter how you feel about his intervention (or lack there of) in terms of cheating or his seeding. For him to do any different than he did he'd be playing favorites.

5) Barring the realistic view of "the character that's most popular deserves to win the most", I'd still say that Mario deserves it more. Wihtout Mario most of us wouldn't be here, hell... this site likely wouldn't be here. If any character has done anything to deserve the highest level of respect it's actually Mario, not Crono. Hell, even old man Pac did less for video games than Mario back in the day (and extremely less since).

Sorry, but your arguments put forth aren't that great here... take that from a guy that has always been behind Crono and would love to see him win a contest. Just being included among the likes of Mario puts him in a class well beyond the reach of most characters and for a relative one-trick pony that's a damn fine accomplishment.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

Inept? Hardly. Ceej clearly used a new method of detecting cheat votes that he had never used before. His graphing of votes across IP classes thing was actually pretty sophisticated; I highly doubt he ever used that before. It's not something a webmaster would normally think of, at all. He probably got tipped off somehow.

Romero's word is not to be trusted, but there's a reason that the police/FBI always listen closely to the stories criminals tell after they're caught. It's usually logical to believe the person by that point; there's limited incentive to be dishonest. What Romero said can't be taken at face value but it can more or less be trusted; it'd be naive to think otherwise.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

remember that at the time many thought Magus was strong and had a legitimate chance of rSFFing Crono.

>_>, that about as good as the Seph > Cloud idea...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Sephiroth vs. Cloud was a lot more reasonable; Seph had gotten 48% on Cloud already. It wouldn't have taken much of a shift from him to be back ahead of him (no matter what some believe, Sephiroth would very likely have beaten Cloud in 2K2).
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Inept? Hardly.

Balls. Anyone who gets so desperate towards the end to hold back that rushing surge of votes for Vercetti that they stuff THAT MANY votes in a brief second time span is borderline inadequate, leaning towards prime FUBAR candidate. Kefka OD'd on Romero, and the result was obvious without and new technical know-how or graphing systems. It simply aided in nailing down the culprit.

And for my part, it's naive to take this known dishonest person's word at face value, particularly when the spread of such "truths" only serve to shine his legend ever further.

Except in this instance there is something to be gained... noteriety. If you get caught cheating once in some small-fry match you're a nobody. "Whoops, I'm a loser and I got caught." If it had been left at "Caught cheating for Kefka against Vercetti" we'd forget about him by the next contest, if he claims to have effected most of the big matches in the past then we'll talk about him for some time to come. Hell, if not for what he said I doubt he'd even be mentioned throughout the rest of the contest, but now every time the stats go wrong somebody on this board will have the thought in the back of their head "Did GR really mess with that many matches, di dthe math fail me because of him?". And really, on just enough occasions to be of note criminals do lie. If you're going down you might as well take the credit for things you didn't do just to spread your name that much further. He wanted to be notorious, and he succeded.

Besides...
1) If that's the highest number of votes he could come up with his reach was pretty minimal. There are just so many more matches that he couldn't change than he could

2) If there really was a concentrated effort to move 500+ votes in less than 30 minutes or so then it doesn't matter how damn good you are at cheating, you'll be noticed. Yeah, Ceej had to use a new technique to catch him this time, but that's because he was working on it all damn day... but as soon as it all fell apart on him he slipped up. If he was moving that level of votes in half an hour he'd have been hit.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

*any

Christ, that's twice today. >_<

"(no matter what some believe, Sephiroth would very likely have beaten Cloud in 2K2)."

Of course, that's how it should still be. Cloud over Spehiroth feels wrong, and dirty, and only HM can disagree without me smacking them in response... because I already know he's a crazy, crazy lad. :P
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:08:33 AM | Message Detail | #031
Actually, the match started late... so even with the extra time Mario *clears throat* won within 24 hours.

Ah yes, well that's all right then. I didn't recall that either.

then again, it wasn't until the Villains contest that Seph got a 1 seed and he deserved it more than Crono and (in essence) never got it

You could say that a ToC spot is a 1 seed. Better even; kind of .75 seed.

He's never slighted Crono, no matter how you feel about his intervention (or lack there of) in terms of cheating or his seeding.

I'm sure he has no bias, but his methods of detecting cheating were blatantly lacking back in 2K3.

---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Sephiroth vs. Cloud was a lot more reasonable; Seph had gotten 48% on Cloud already. It wouldn't have taken much of a shift from him to be back ahead of him (no matter what some believe, Sephiroth would very likely have beaten Cloud in 2K2).

Eh, there's no way to absolutely prove that, so you have to take it for what it's worth. Sephiroth beating Cloud is not something I see happening in the future
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Actually, the match started late... so even with the extra time Mario *clears throat* won within 24 hours.

Mario vs Crono 2 did start a bit early, by about 20 minutes or so. So if you go by a strict 24 hour match rule, Crono won. The system CJayC seemed to be using to decide close matches was to end the match as close to midnight as possible. It wasn't actually stated anywhere until the Spring 2004 contest as has been in every contest since. As of the Summer 2004 contest, polls start and end almost exactly at midnight.

Romero's word is not to be trusted, but there's a reason that the police/FBI always listen closely to the stories criminals tell after they're caught. It's usually logical to believe the person by that point; there's limited incentive to be dishonest. What Romero said can't be taken at face value but it can more or less be trusted; it'd be naive to think otherwise.

But he confession was not made to CJayC but in a large chatroom with many other users. Seems to me like a good situation to bend the truth to try and increase your fame.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2005 5:22:15 AM | Message Detail | #036
Except in this instance there is something to be gained... noteriety.

I am obviously aware of that, which is why I said limited incentive. Romero already had notoriety in spades. (the stuff about a small-fry match doesn't apply so much in practice)

Really, this is an old story. Person gets caught doing something like this, then they come clean. It would be counter to the normal pattern of these things for Romero to lie about most of the stuff he said. If this were some sort of investigation and a detective had to bet his job on whether this guy was telling the truth or not, he'd probably go with the guy being mostly honest.


2) If there really was a concentrated effort to move 500+ votes in less than 30 minutes or so then it doesn't matter how damn good you are at cheating, you'll be noticed. Yeah, Ceej had to use a new technique to catch him this time, but that's because he was working on it all damn day... but as soon as it all fell apart on him he slipped up. If he was moving that level of votes in half an hour he'd have been hit.

I don't understand what you're trying to say. If you're talking about that one blip, that was almost certainly another party, not Romero. Those were the "somebody else" 300 votes that Ceej was talking about. Romero probably couldn't vote stuff that fast if he wanted too.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Yeah, but to get those honors he deserved all along Ceej had to go out of his way. Not for the lovers but for the haters. People just couldn't stand the idea of Cloud and Link going out leaving Sephiroth to dominate so Ceej bowed to the complainers and made a half-assed (litteraly, it was half a contest, dammit) contest just so he could set Sephiroth aside.

And hell, even a scrub the likes of CATS could take a 5 seed in that thing, there were only 3 characters with real strength... if you set the bar that low I bet even a character on Ness' level could have taken a 1 seed (if he were a villain he'd actually have slipped in as the 1st 2 seed, considering, but the bar was that damn low)

Sephiroth is deserving of a 1 seed in any bracket, even fully powered. Despite the fact that he finally got recognized for the force he is he still hasn't gotten fair treatment. Thrown out of the contest for being too powerful without having the chance of ever winning a real one of his own.

Hell, after seeing what we have this summer I have no doubt an all female's contest would have set a significantly higher bar than a villains contest.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

I don't really want to get into a deep discussion on Romero, but people in general seem to be way to eager to dismiss what the guy said. That's not typically how these things work.

The simple fact that Romero was caught here using a detection technique that Ceej almost certainly did not apply in earlier matches makes it very likely that Romero cheated in significant amounts before. The odds of this being the only match he cheated in are, frankly, remote.

Now, he may be lying about what other matches he cheated in. But given that it's highly unlikely that he'd bother to cheat in a blowout, it pretty much assures any actual cheating he did came in a famous match.

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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

"Mario vs Crono 2 did start a bit early, by about 20 minutes or so"

For some reason I remmeber it starting late. Oh well, okay, then Crono should have won (not a point I was contesting) but he didn't. That's not due to bias on Ceej's part, and in this conversation that's the important part.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

"the stuff about a small-fry match doesn't apply so much in practice"

Outside the board most people were oblivious, on the board We'd have forgotten almost completely by now. Hell, the guy never even enters my mind unless someone else brings it up because that's just how little credit I give to his word. I don't believe he did any of that, except cheating on a small-fry match with next to nothing at stake. That makes him mean nothing, but those who believe him keep bringing him up. Again, it was a small-fry match, if not for what he siad afterwards he'd be long since out of mind for all of us.

"I don't understand what you're trying to say."

I was talking about the sudden rush at the end of MvC2. It doens't matter how good of a cheater he is, if he did that in 30 minutes it'd have registered for Ceej with or without the new technique he is using. You don't move 500 fraud votes without anybody noticing.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

You don't get votes like that without them being fraud. Those votes were assuredly cheating. Both characters were clearly cheating there; Mario significantly faster and more effectively than Crono.

They were definitely cheat votes, and Ceej did not take them away. Everyone noticed but nothing was done about it. To deny that there was cheating there (by Romero or whoever, as well as whoever cheater for Crono) is very illogical. Ceej didn't do anything about it either because he thought it balanced out; it was too complicated/impossible at the time to do prove them; he simply didn't want to interfere (the way that umps/refs in sports naturally desire to "let them play" in important situations); or some combination of these motivations.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I mean in terms of concentrated effort from an individual. You just don't put up those numbers single handedly and go unnoticed, and that's the only way Ceej is going to take away votes.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

As I said, it wasn't unnoticed; everyone saw it. And we all knew what was going on. Whether it was just one party or not making the bulk of the difference is unknown, and will never be known.

Ceej isn't biased, but his ability to prove cheating there was almost certainly limited; and his motivation for taking away votes was probably lacking as well, which is understandable.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Heh. This match is so boring people are talking about cheating from a month ago and from two years ago.
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!