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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 222
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:31:58 PM | Message Detail
Eh, that picture is pretty meh at best.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:32:32 PM | Message Detail
Crono just knows he's about to kick Tommy's ass. =p

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:32:45 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b42.jpg

I knew it would be bad.....but dayum.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
M. Chief vs. DK - Bracket: Chief - Vote: Chief (42/48)
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:33:03 PM | Message Detail
"Pretty meh" is being very generous.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:33:17 PM | Message Detail
There's a striking difference of brightness between the two characters, and Crono looks like crap. :(
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 37/48
Today's Prediction -- Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:33:39 PM | Message Detail
Not only that, but look at the voting patterns for Magus/Knuckles. They're both board favorites (Magus having the edge). So it was possible for him to split the board vote with Magus (of course, again, Magus having the edge). And we all know how Knuckles is with the day vote. Not to mention Magus could have benefited from bracket voting. Squall's best hope, IMO, is to dominate the second night vote.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:33:44 PM | Message Detail
Eww, that's awful. Crono looks like he was drawn by one of the artists featured in Maddox's Children's Art Gallery. Yuck.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:35:20 PM | Message Detail
Solid Snake has a pretty poor day vote, and it doesn't stop him from destroying Knuckles in the first night vote because he's just so much stronger.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:36:36 PM | Message Detail
But Squall isn't so much stronger than Knuckles.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:36:59 PM | Message Detail
Squall will have the lead throughout the day for the most part.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:37:15 PM | Message Detail
But Squall isn't so much stronger than Knuckles.

How is he not?
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:38:00 PM | Message Detail
What I mean is that Squall isn't anywhere near Snake in strength.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:38:25 PM | Message Detail
I think Squall is strong enough to get 57-58% with the night vote, which is enough of a gap to prevent Knuckles from catching up, and Squall isn't too shabby during the day.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:39:01 PM | Message Detail
Not to mention, Knuckles has had extreme turnarounds on characters who have been established to absolutely SUCK with the day vote.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:40:04 PM | Message Detail
Match 42: (6) Tommy Vercetti vs. (2) Crono

Past Performances

Tommy Vercetti


Summer 2005
Beat Kefka Palazzo, 51.14% - 48.86%

Win - Lose Record
4-2

Crono

Summer 2005
Beat Zidane Tribal, 76.72% - 23.28%

Win - Lose Record
10-3

Analysis

When CJayC made the bracket I think he intended to have a Crono/Kefka rematch, which would be very sad for Kefka. Vercetti on the other hand not to the board’s surprise upset Kefka and went on to verse Crono, but then again there’s still no way that Vercetti could win this match (even though I would love it the board would self destruct).

Last round Kefka made a lead of 1100 votes and from what seemed like the slowest comeback ever Vercetti started to gain against Kefka. Several hours later he finally got 50/50, but it was short lived and out of no where Kefka started to gain at a fast rate. CJayC then made a post saying that some guy named George cheated for Kefka 1800 times and removed those vote. Other then the strange vote gain from Vercetti at the end nothing really seemed to have gone wrong.

Zidane like all the other Final Fantasy IX characters this year performed really badly against Crono, even with SFF included. As of now Crono still has one of the best odds of winning the contest and he probably won’t get any competition until the final four matches.

We’ll finally have a quiet match with no unexpected win or close match. From looking at this match if we were to switch this with another two seed Luigi would be the one and it would make this division one of the weakest ever, but at least it will be very interesting. The only question left to ask is whether Vercetti dropped or Kefka grew.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Crono over Tommy Vercetti

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crono wins, 69.72% - 30.28%

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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:41:18 PM | Message Detail
Isn't it a bit early to talk about Squall vs. Knux already?

I can understand it though, since the other matches are pretty much foregone conclusions.

With that said, I'm sure Squall will win "safely", I couldn't see him dropping far enough for Knux to actually threaten him with Sega's legendary day vote.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:42:00 PM | Message Detail
since the other matches are pretty much foregone conclusions.

Don't let Lopen hear you say that!
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:42:30 PM | Message Detail
I think Squall will have 51-52% from the first night vote, then Knuckles will gain up to about 51-52% on Squall during the day. Then, Squall will drop Knuckles to about 50-51% (although it's *very * possible Squall can win at this point.)

The point is that Squall/Knuckles is more of a barn-burner than people are giving credit for.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:44:01 PM | Message Detail
I think it's more of a foregone conclusion than people are thinking. I just don't see any advantage Knuckles has over Squall, other than people somehow still convinced that Magus is as strong as 2003 says.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:46:05 PM | Message Detail
Don't let Lopen hear you say that!

What did he have?

Dante over Vincent?
I gave up on that after Vincent overran Kerrigan without even knowing what he hit.

Luigi over Tifa?
No matter what you're relying on, X-stats or guts, Tifa has it in the bag.

Everything else you can tell without even knowing that the X-stats exist.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:47:16 PM | Message Detail
You actually think Squall is around Magus's level now?
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:47:57 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan is more fodderrific than people expect. I think she's around Ratchet level.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:47:57 PM | Message Detail
I heard!

What's wrong with you kids? $%@! It's $##$%# Dante, man! @#%#!
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 2: (4) Donkey Kong.
*waves M$ flag*
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:48:48 PM | Message Detail
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:47:16 PM | Message Detail
You actually think Squall is around Magus's level now?


It's a possibility.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:49:22 PM | Message Detail
Not a very good one.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:50:13 PM | Message Detail
How is it a possibility? Squall cleanly beat Kirby last year. Squall won't do the same thing Magus did because he's stronger than Magus.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:53:29 PM | Message Detail
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:50:13 PM | Message Detail
How is it a possibility? Squall cleanly beat Kirby last year. Squall won't do the same thing Magus did because he's stronger than Magus.


Call it a hunch. >_>
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/28/2005 7:54:00 PM | Message Detail
You actually think Squall is around Magus's level now?

He's stronger than Magus now, but obviously not as strong as Magus 2k3.

Kerrigan is more fodderrific than people expect. I think she's around Ratchet level.

I'd peg her around Gordon at the very least, she's not cult, and SC does have some power, unlike Ratchet's game.

And look at Tifa, Vincent shouldn't be too far below her at worst.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:00:38 PM | Message Detail
Wow! I never knew how big the turn around in Kuja Vs. Master Hand. was That's a record in and of itself.

Does anyone know what the difference was when MH's percentage stabilized? That plus 500 would be the record for largest lead swing. Unless MC is currently beating it.
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:01:56 PM | Message Detail
Heh, if Tidus vs. Kirby is an indication of both Magus' and Squall's strength's, we'll be seeing something around a 61/39 victory for Squall. Thinking of it that way, it's too much of a hurdle for error and such for Knuckles to overcome, in my opinion.

But, geez, even though 2K3 Squall and unadjusted 2K4 Tidus predicted Kirby/Tidus accurately...I kinda think (hope) it was Kirby's increasing rather than unadjusted Tidus being accurate. I mean, think about how big of an increase Snake would've gotten this year if there was no 20XX factor.

Wow, and MC is STILL increasing, and we're into the night...Frog started catching up at...nah, no need to bother. There's no way DK is making up that many votes now.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:02:42 PM | Message Detail
Btw, speaking of MC's comeback, what was the largest reversal ever in contest history?

In terms of both vote lead and percentage?

When I checked the poll at 10 in the morning, I thought the Nintendrones has completely overran the site, and that all hope was all but lost for MC.

I almost jumped in joy when I checked back recently and saw him winning it.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:03:19 PM | Message Detail
I mean, think about how big of an increase Snake would've gotten this year if there was no 20XX factor.

Depends on where you think Zelda is.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:07:29 PM | Message Detail
DK's starting to stall now. Too little, too late, but still.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:07:42 PM | Message Detail
Btw, speaking of MC's comeback, what was the largest reversal ever in contest history?

In terms of both vote lead and percentage?


Vote Lead: Kuja Vs. Master Hand. Possibly this match, depending on how it goes.

Percentage: Donkey Kong Vs. Duck Hunt/Super Mario RPG Vs. Street Fighter II/Master Chief Vs. CATS/Kefka Vs. Diablo
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:07:43 PM | Message Detail
To say Kerrigan is at Ratchet's level is doing a major disservice to Ratchet. Kerrigan will be lucky to break 15% in the 64-character bracket X-Stats, and lucky to break 10% on Link or Cloud when the stats are finished.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 43/48 (Kefka, Magus, Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:10:53 PM | Message Detail
If Kerrigan = 2k4 Ratchet, Dante is projected to beat Vincent.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:11:50 PM | Message Detail
Zelda should be at her 2k3 value, at the very least.

With Ganon boosting like crazy, however, I can't see her staying right where the 2k3 X-stats put her.

Snake's performance in 2k4 is probably a combination of him decreasing and underperforming on MM at the same time.

While MGS3 gave him a boost this year to restore him to his rightful place.

Btw, I firmly believe that the 20XX Factor doesn't exist.

MM decreased, while Tidus simply got exposed.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:12:51 PM | Message Detail
Depends on where you think Zelda is.

I'd take Zelda increasing more than Vivi decreasing.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:13:09 PM | Message Detail
I can't see why people are actually talking about Squall/Knuckles like Knuckles has a chance to win that. Squall won't have any trouble winning.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:13:11 PM | Message Detail
An un-increased Dante, by the way.

Kerrigan would probably beat Ratchet with that pic, but not comfortably in the slightest. I can't think that Dante didn't increase what with 2k4 Dante making Terra on Ultros's level.

2 days, I can't wait!
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 2: (4) Donkey Kong.
*waves M$ flag*
From: Villainous Fawful | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:13:12 PM | Message Detail
If Kerrigan = 2k4 Ratchet, Dante is projected to beat Vincent.


If you think Kerrigan = Ratchet, then you have gone completely bonkers.

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I HAVE FURY!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:14:08 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Zelda increasing more than Vivi decreasing.

I believe it was more Vivi decreasing than Zelda increasing, myself.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:14:55 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Zelda increasing more than Vivi decreasing.

Well, DK's performance seems to indicate that his 2003 number was correct. Unless he had a down year in 2004 (or Vivi had one this year), then perhaps Zelda did increase. However, Snake/Zelda might just be one of those instances where linearity doesn't hold up. Not to mention, I think 2004 was just a down year for Snake in general.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: creativename | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:15:04 PM | Message Detail
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/28/2005 11:07:43 PM | Message Detail | #385
To say Kerrigan is at Ratchet's level is doing a major disservice to Ratchet. Kerrigan will be lucky to break 15% in the 64-character bracket X-Stats, and lucky to break 10% on Link or Cloud when the stats are finished.


10%...? Absolutely no way. I can't imagine Vincent being lower than 30% at worst, and that puts Kerrigan around 12.6%. 10% is out of the question. (unless Link took some huge leap this year, or Vincent suffers SFF somewhere down the line)
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:15:27 PM | Message Detail
If you think Kerrigan = Ratchet, then you have gone completely bonkers.

I believe it was more Vivi decreasing than Zelda increasing, myself.


I'll agree with those statements.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:18:27 PM | Message Detail
Either way, 49% for DK is still a heck of a lot better than what he was expected to do, even after the first round matches.

Off to bed now. I wonder what my reaction would be if I saw DK won on the bracket tomorrow... oops, better not elaborate, that's how I doomed Crono in 2003, then Kefka this year. Well, anyway, I had called the match for DK early in the morning, so no more cursing for now. kthxbai
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:19:41 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan = Ratchet? lol
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:20:00 PM | Message Detail
Well, DK's performance seems to indicate that his 2003 number was correct. Unless he had a down year in 2004 (or Vivi had one this year), then perhaps Zelda did increase. However, Snake/Zelda might just be one of those instances where linearity doesn't hold up. Not to mention, I think 2004 was just a down year for Snake in general.

Vivi had a miracle run last year, just like Frog did.

Also pay attention that DK actually UNDERperformed against Fisher, who was stripped bare by Samus last year.

As for DK getting this close to MC, Seph already showed us the light in Sp2k5 by exposing LS bare.

Unfortunately, none of us believed him.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:26:31 PM | Message Detail
Wow, I didn't realize Ratchet was quite that low. I'd put Kerrigan at around Kuja level myself. I could easily envision her losing to him... hell, before the villain contest I'm sure you all could have too.

That just goes to show that expectations don't always work out. We have no range for Kerrigan, she can be rock bottom or she can be Diablo level. (well she can't be, that's absurd... but she could have in theory) We really don't know. Whereas with Terra, she's pretty much got a floor in Ultros. I know Dante has to have increased to beat Vincent assuming Kerrigan = Kuja, but I think he did.

I'm still confident in my pick.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 2: (4) Donkey Kong.
*waves M$ flag*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:51:31 PM | Message Detail
Ratchet is a super scrub, only a handful of characters would lose to him.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
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