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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 220
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:05:57 PM | Message Detail
Welcome back Ulti; hope you got my PCA.


Heh, it's funny how Solid decisively beat Zelda and most situations of him losing before the Final Four look grim...then today happened. Solid and Bowser are having a show-off battle and are probably gonna have a great match (so I'm hopin', anyways)...

...God speed, Snake.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:08:08 PM | Message Detail
Well, one way to look at this, as I'm sure other people have already pointed it out, is who would you take between Ryu/Zelda? I would side with Ryu, I think, or at least not overwhelmingly with Zelda. Before today happened, who would you have taken, Ryu or Zelda? I mean, that could spell doom by itself for Snake.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:12:50 PM | Message Detail
Well, the gauntlet is over, with no close matches whatsoever.

I'll laugh if tomorrow end up being the closest match of the round.

The only match left that matters is Tifa vs. Luigi, just to predict if she can take down Sonic.

And if Vincent can miraculously double Dante, he might have a shot at Crono.

And here's hoping Squall won't choke or even job against Knux...

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:15:02 PM | Message Detail
I'm still sticking with my Dante upset. I think that match will be close.

Not like it matters, since my bracket was killed by today's match.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:15:08 PM | Message Detail
I probably would have taken Zelda, but, yeah, your point's made. Still gotta keep the faith alive though, heh.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:16:04 PM | Message Detail
Well, one way to look at this, as I'm sure other people have already pointed it out, is who would you take between Ryu/Zelda? I would side with Ryu, I think, or at least not overwhelmingly with Zelda. Before today happened, who would you have taken, Ryu or Zelda? I mean, that could spell doom by itself for Snake.

I'd take Zelda, she has LoZ:CE behind her in addition to already being ahead of Ryu in the X-stats.

But Snake vs. Zelda was much closer than Bowser vs. Ryu, so Bowser IS the statistical favorite.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:28:11 PM | Message Detail
Flood Division Round 2 - Match 41 – (1)Master Chief vs. (4)Donkey Kong

Master Chief - Guns and corny one-liners can get you far.
Round 1 – vs. CATS (Chief: 68.83% - CATS: 31.17%)

All our vote really belonged to CATS that time.

DK - When I walk around in public wearing only a tie, I get arrested for it.
Round 1 – vs. Sam Fisher (DK: 64.76% - Fisher: 35.24%)

Fisher continues to show that no one cares for him.

After 5 tougher and exciting matches, we finally get a break with the Flood Division. Then again, I think Kefka/Vercetti was enough for everyone.

So Chief vs. DK. Chief was actually looking pretty bad after his match with CATS. Even after Halo 2, he failed to break 69% on CATS. This might be because CATS’s mug was easy to view for all and scored him a nice boost. Then, at the start of the next match, upset flags were raised as DK destroyed Fisher. Of course, knowing DK, something bad always happens to him, and he lost his 70%+ percentage all throughout the day until he fell under 65%.

So, the upset looked good at first, but now we can all see that Chief will win. Don’t expect the ape to roll over and die though in the match.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Master Chief will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Chief: 56% - DK: 44%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: I'm either getting married or on my honeymoon as you're reading this, so know that all of my second round writeups will suck. I'm doing the same short writeups that I did for the last round, because I don't have time to be extensive.)

(Special note from Moltar: DK! Donkey Krunk!)

Though it's conceivable that DK could win, can he actually pull off the upset against post-Halo 2 Master Chief? It would be a hilarious upset, but can it actually _happen_?

...screw it, I'll predict a close match for kicks.

Prediction: Master Chief with 50.13%



Outback’s Analysis

Chief/CATS and DK/Sam proved that DK can make this close, but DK's rather lackluster performance in recent years makes me think that it's unlikely that, no matter how overrated MC is by 2k4 stats, for DK to win this, but it'll be close.

Master Chief with 54.67%



Inviso’s Analysis

Last round, Master Chief and Donkey Kong’s matches greatly saddened me. Master Chief did extremely poorly against ****ing CATS. Couldn’t beat Ansem and completely lame, overused, and dead joke CATS. Meanwhile, Donkey Kong almost doubled Sam Fisher. Donkey Kong has definitely been weakening over the years, yet he still managed to pull a great performance and make Sam look weaker than Vyse. Hopefully I’m right, or else Gamefaqs really is one of the worst sites on the net, but Master Chief, albeit looking weak, should still be able to beat Donkey Kong. If not, then Nintendrones have truly taken over the site.

My Bracket: Master Chief
My Vote: Master Chief
My Prediction: Master Chief with 55.48%
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Bowser vs. Ryu - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (40/46)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:28:34 PM | Message Detail
Soul’s Analysis

How they got here

Master Chief defeated CATS: 68.83% - 31.17%
Donkey Kong defeated Sam Fisher: 64.76% - 35.24%


DK! Donkey Kong!
DK! Donkey Kong is *BOOM*........ Headshot. :)

Sorry, just had to do that eventually.

Ok, on with the match. Well, talk about underperforming to the fullest. Master Chief, the character that was stronger then Ryu according to the adjusted stats, gets 12% less on CATS then Ryu did in 2002. Yes, yes, 2002 results with a grain of salt, I understand that. But this was just to good to let up. Why was he ranked so high in the first place?

Oh right, he was part of that 20XX division, that basically took a dump on the stats last year. Yes, the infamous Frog/Chief/Liquid, as well as MM/Snake/Tidus bombings basically made everyone in that division screwed up. But I'm sure you all are aware of what happened there, so there's no need for me to go over it.

Donkey Kong, on the other hand, scores just as much on Fisher that Magus did in 2003. Again, we all know what happened with Magus, so there's no need to go through it again.

Now, we basically have two screwed up results on our hands here. I know that Fisher is stronger then face CATS, but I have no clue by how much. If he would win with 55%, then DK is going to give Master Chief a tough time.

The safe bet to go with here is Master Chief. I would easily choose Chief, but then you have to realize something here. Nintendo stars have been overperforming in 90% of the matches that they're in so far. Add to the fact that DK has the best picture that he will ever get, I'm starting to really doubt Master Chief is going to win. With Halo 2 out, I was as shocked as everyone else when Chief performed the way he did. If he didn't gain from that game, then DK stands a great shot at taking him down.

Oh well, I probably won't get this point anyway, so might as well risk it. Again, the safe bet here is Master Chief, but I believe the upset could happen. Of course, I'm aware of the backlash I'll receive when choosing DK, but I'll deal with it.

My prediction: Donkey Kong wins with 50.01% of the vote. *Activates flame shield, armor, bunker, and everything in between*.



Cena’s Analysis

So we've got Donkey Kong and Master Chief in round 2. Both had some pretty unimpressive wins in round 1, but Master Chief had the easier match against CATS. DK is definitely not as strong as he used to be, and with the edition of Halo 2 to all X-Box libraries, and the big hype for Halo 3 on the X-Box 360, I think it's safe to say that MC has the advantage as far as new, casual gamers. Donkey Kong might have some voters that are in the SSB: Online camp and even the nostalgia camp, but that's not really a credible case here. In previous years, both contestants seemed to be even. Master Chief has continued a streak of fairly uimpressive wins, and even lost to Frog. DK and Vercetti had a good fight, as well. Neither managed 70% on their first round opponents, so they're definitely not strong contenders. With Halo's continuous popularity, and DKs not-so-hyped up games, (Donkey Konga, anyone? Eugh), I'm sure MC will pick up the win, though it should be close. I don't think stats will make much of a difference, either.

Prediction: Master Chief with 55.3%

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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Bowser vs. Ryu - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (40/46)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:29:17 PM | Message Detail
Vlado’s Analysis

This match will certainly be much closer than people expected in the beginning of the contest. Hell, with the rampage Nintendo has been on the WHOLE contest, I wouldn't be surprised to see Donkey Kong win here. Thank goodness, he's a worthless ape and he is certainly the weakest Nintendo representative in the contest. The problem, however, comes from the fact that Master Chief proved that he's not strong, either. Failing to get even 69% against Cats proves that you're a joke. Sure, there are certainly plenty of Master Chief/Xbox anti-votes, but it can't be just that. Sure, Cats does much better with his cool face pic, but that's not it, either. Master Chief has dropped since last year, instead of getting stronger, despite Halo 2. Everything points at that, heck, even estimating him through the inflated Cats villain contest value proves that he has dropped by at least a percent and a half.

What do we have on Donkey Kong... His first round win was quite impressive, he almost doubled Sam Fisher, while the stats predicted a somewhat close match between the two... The question is - is his win over Fisher more impressive than Chief's over Cats? Hmm... If Cats' spring contest value is realistic, he could easily beat Fisher. Which would mean that Master Chief would win here. I'm pretty sure that Fisher has dropped since last year, while Cats has certainly gone up... In the best case scenario for Fisher, they're on the same level now. He can't possibly have over half a percent advantage over Cats.

Conclusion - Master Chief wins. Donkey Kong will make it close enough to embarrass the Xbox icon, but Chief will survive till Round 3, where he will inevitably get his ass handed by Crono. Just one more thing... If the stats fail me again and Donkey Kong actually wins this... I will probably completely disregard the bull**** that the stats are from now on.

Predicted percentage: Master Chief with 53.46%.

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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Bowser vs. Ryu - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (40/46)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:30:45 PM | Message Detail
Thank goodness, he's a worthless ape and he is certainly the weakest Nintendo representative in the contest.

dot dot dot
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:30:52 PM | Message Detail
I'm on a crappy computer right now, so I can't access the x-stats...but let's assume these two things we've talked about (though not necessarily true):

--Zelda = Ganon (Spring 2k5, we'll say).
--Ryu is constant from last year.

What does that do to Solid, Bowser, and their probably-upcoming match?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:37:36 PM | Message Detail
Let's go DK, let's go!
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:39:23 PM | Message Detail
Quick update. Congrats on your marriage Ulti! I still have NO power at my house in Miami due to Hurricane Katrina. There were like 1 million people in South Florida without power. Might be out for a couple of days. I have my Zero/Lloyd PCA on my laptop, I just need to get it online.

If I HAD power at my house, I would be gloating my ass off over this victory for Bowser. Somebody archive these topics so I can catch up. Gotta go!
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:40:18 PM | Message Detail
I still have NO power at my house in Miami due to Hurricane Katrina. There were like 1 million people in South Florida without power. Might be out for a couple of days.

I live in Miami also. Thankfully, we just got power back.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:46:38 PM | Message Detail
Live by Miami, die by Miami. Wonderful place to visit, but hurricanes are too great of a reason for me to ever live there (or mostly anywhere in Florida, even).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/27/2005 9:46:45 PM | Message Detail
That puts Snake right above Samus and Bowser right below Samus.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/27/2005 10:01:14 PM | Message Detail
I think it would be awesome if Master Chief beat Donkey Kong by more than he beat CATS.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 8/27/2005 10:02:17 PM | Message Detail
The opposite of that would be better.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/27/2005 10:03:51 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, CATS beating DK worse than MC would be pretty sweet too...

...ahem...
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/27/2005 10:09:18 PM | Message Detail
I agree, HM.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:52:35 PM | Message Detail
HEH. Two stats topics with the exact same title. We'll call this one the true 220 (because it is), and I'll close the other one. There's nothing in it but people complaining about moderations, anyway.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:53:25 PM | Message Detail
We get signal!

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:55:27 PM | Message Detail
*switches topic*

Ryu broke 41% at 11:50
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:57:10 PM | Message Detail
I wonder how much of a lead DK well manage to get before MC starts fighting back.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:57:32 PM | Message Detail
So other then the board vote does anyone think Donkey Kong can hold some king of a lead?
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:10 AM | Message Detail
I doubt it. After ten minutes I expect MC to stay in control the entire match.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:24 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief 29.63% 16
Donkey Kong 77.78% 42
TOTAL VOTES 54

64.04% of the brackets with Bowser in Round 3.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:30 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief 25% 3
Donkey Kong 75% 9
TOTAL VOTES 12

Wow Bowser's numbers over Ryu were amazing for a 3 seed.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:32 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief 36.11% 39
Donkey Kong 63.89% 69
TOTAL VOTES 108
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Bowser vs. Ryu - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (40/46)
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:33 AM | Message Detail
I think it would be awesome if Master Chief beat Donkey Kong by more than he beat CATS.

You know...that would make for humor.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:36 AM | Message Detail
Repost, but I want it here, too:
In Communist China related news, did you see the recent gamespot article where it will basically be impossible to play an online video game for more than 3 hours? It was very funny, yet sad...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:50 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief 28.81% 17
Donkey Kong 74.58% 44
TOTAL VOTES 59

As expected, Bowser sweeps the brackets.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: andaca | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:00:52 AM | Message Detail
"If you praise democracy, for example, your internet will be down within seconds."

dailykos?
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:01:39 AM | Message Detail
Go DK!
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:02:06 AM | Message Detail
DK's fighting to keep his lead.
From: yoshifan823 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:02:26 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief 47.77% 150
Donkey Kong 52.23% 164
TOTAL VOTES 314

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Yoshifan scorecard: Next Match: Bowser Vs. Chun-Li: 86.58%
Points:Contest:14/14 Oracle:609.14/9th place
From: Dark Ninja1521 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:02:59 AM | Message Detail
Go MC!
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Summer Contest 2005: 37/42
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:03:09 AM | Message Detail
Wow, DK might not even be leading going into the freeze. This is going to get really ugly later on.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:05:26 AM | Message Detail
Looks like we're in for another close match, courtesy of DK. I'm just amazed he missed his opportunity last year with Vivi.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:06:25 AM | Message Detail
And DK gets it by 36
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
M. Chief vs. DK - Bracket: Chief - Vote: Chief (42/48)
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:06:27 AM | Message Detail
Goddamn. DK is really putting up a fight here.

Looks like Nintendo really has received a huge boost across the board.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:06:27 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief 47.46% 337
Donkey Kong 52.54% 373
TOTAL VOTES 710

Donkey Kong is barely holding onto a lead after the first five minutes. Master Chief is looking very good to take this thing, but it's such a shame that he's losing now. No love from me.

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:06:38 AM | Message Detail
36 vote lead
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:07:16 AM | Message Detail
Chief is looking to run with this once the day vote kicks in. Hell, he might even start next update.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
M. Chief vs. DK - Bracket: Chief - Vote: Chief (42/48)
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:07:18 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
45-----4--------50.0000000
44-----24-------83.3333333
43-----139------82.7338129
42-----429------83.2167832
41-----930------80.0000000
40-----1518-----80.5006588
39-----2042-----81.2928501
38-----2463-----76.7762891
37-----2722-----75.2755327
36-----2853-----73.8520855
35-----2823-----71.7321998
34-----2641-----67.9288148
33-----2515-----65.6063618
32-----2262-----63.9699381
31-----1941-----58.6295724
30-----1679-----53.3055390
29-----1374-----50.9461426
28-----1163-----46.4316423
27-----915------38.0327869
26-----767------38.2007823
25-----587------35.2640545
24-----506------32.4110672
23-----372------30.1075269
22-----257------21.4007782
21-----185------16.7567568
20-----133------18.7969925
19-----99-------19.1919192
18-----70-------12.8571429
17-----64-------26.5625000
16-----33-------9.0909091
15-----18-------0.0000000
14-----9--------11.1111111
13-----8--------12.5000000
12-----3--------33.3333333

Everybody with a score of 11 or less got the match wrong. Except for the -1s, great performace by the top tiers. 80+ prediction percentages for the -2s to -7. The accuracy fades as you go further down.

Ten people fell off the Top 50 today. Cloud9681, Jabbari693, RidiculousNic, ZAXTREME, H3R3TIK, Warrior_Hart, smashjallo, FosDoNuT1, KoruKinshi and Sonicmaster713 did not have Bowser winning the match.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:07:36 AM | Message Detail
Looks like Nintendo really has received a huge boost across the board.

Well, Master Chief was far from impressive last round.

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:07:39 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief is going to slaughter Donkey Kong, much like he has everyone else, with the day vote.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:08:10 AM | Message Detail
36 TSA_ZHQ 45 Master Chief

Poor man.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Just Some Person | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:08:14 AM | Message Detail
Nintendo got a boost of strength this year. Does not bode well for FF characters in the late matches...

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:08:23 AM | Message Detail
I doubt Master Chief will finish with more than 54% at the most.
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