I got bored of the other topic.

I know. But you also didn't think that Tifa would put up Samus-like numbers, did you?

The difference is, Tifa was facing the highest fodder, or lowest non-fodder character there was. When you get a huge name agaisnt someone that low, they're only bound to perform better on those characters than somebody else closer to them. With Dante/Vincent, Dante is a proven character in these contests, and although he doesn't have winning potential, he can take on most of the field. Him performing that well on Dante would be insanity.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

I'm not quite sure where this "Nintendo has gained as a whole" mentality comes from on this particular match. In 2003, MC would've been expected to win with around 51% or so. That's certainly within a small enough range for the big ape to win by random variation alone.

I still think the Chief will pull out the win here.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

"zero/ganondorf. who wins?"

Ganondorf, Zero isn't too good of a vote drawer, and Nintendo is the **** here.
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Summer Contest Score: 43/48
Today's Pick: Master Chief

Yeah Tifa put up Samus numbers. And if Luigi didnt put up SONIC NUMBERS the next match against a very similiar type opponent, then maybe I buy into Tifa's numbers a little bit more.

Yes, and you might also consider that Vincent beating Dante 70-30 wouldn't be so Sephiroth-like.
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The Power is Yours.

From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/28/2005 8:41:10 PM | #312
xbox365.com appears to be providing linkage.

I doubt it's causing serious damage though.

We've actually been getting quite a lot more votes than yesterday over the past couple of hours. Some comparisons of combined vote counts:

11:00 - yesterday 47034, today 47422 (less than 400 difference)

12:50 - yesterday 56861, today 58269 (more than 1400 difference)

That's quite a jump. Might be coincidence, might not be. Either way, it helps MC.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

And DK gains 37 as soon as I say that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

ooh, big gain from DK.

MC needs to hurry up or he's not going to move fast enough.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Duck Hunt came very close to making one of the biggest comebacks ever because of the night vote. Tommy owned DK with the night vote and Sam Fisher kept DK dropping during the night.

If there is any character that we can say truly sucks with the night vote, it's DK.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

So Tifa puts up Samus-like numbers and Luigi puts up Sonic-like numbers.

Clearly Tifa is going to beat Luigi with 57.51% and we'll all laugh.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

a 37 vote gain for DK?!??!!??!??!!?


shena------------
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

I think the jump might have more to do with the fact that the match is close than anything else. I would imagine that some people do check the results first before voting. If it's a big enough blowout, they might not bother.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I don't know who I'd pick right now. Zero isn't a pushover, that's for sure. He's about as close to the noble nine as you can get without breaking it. Hell, he even outperformed snake against megaman last year. As far as pictures go vincent and zero are both the kind of characters that CjayC would have to go out of his way to find a bad picture for.

I'm waiting for dante vs. vincent before I try to peg vincent's strength.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

Actually, Duck Hunt started it's comeback in the morning and came back ALL DAY long and would have succeeded except for the fact that Doney Kong stalled it at the end of the poll... at night.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/28/2005 3:56:31 PM | #358
Duck Hunt came very close to making one of the biggest comebacks ever because of the night vote. Tommy owned DK with the night vote and Sam Fisher kept DK dropping during the night.

If there is any character that we can say truly sucks with the night vote, it's DK.

Master Chief sucks even more, because the better you are with the day vote, the worse you are with the night vote. The two are NOT mutually exclusive.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Well IIRC last year Sunday >>> Saturday for vote totals.
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The Power is Yours.

DK's seemingly random gains are very annoying.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

Before anyone thinks about vote stuffing...That was more due to MC not pulling in as many votes that time. DK stayed about the same.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/28/2005 3:55:02 PM | Message Detail
I'm not quite sure where this "Nintendo has gained as a whole" mentality comes from on this particular match. In 2003, MC would've been expected to win with around 51% or so. That's certainly within a small enough range for the big ape to win by random variation alone.

I still think the Chief will pull out the win here.

Agreed, I've been saying since the gauntlet started that DK/MC would be the closest match that we have had, but nobody wanted to listen, because everyone, including me had MC in their brackets. I don't think MC is gonna have enough in the tank to pull this one out though, he's slowing down, and the day vote ends in a couple hours.

With that said, I'm off to watch Sin City.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

I think Luigi'll beat Tifa. My guts are telling me that. (I'm sure somebody's going to make some joke about that)
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It makes you wonder why abbreviation is such a long word.

Yeah, but the last one was 9 votes, this was 37!
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/28/2005 12:58:47 PM | Message Detail
Before anyone thinks about vote stuffing...That was more due to MC not pulling in as many votes that time. DK stayed about the same.

That was the same argument people used for Kefka...
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

DK's seemingly random gains are very annoying.

That's pretty much what saved DK against Duck Hunt, too. Those little gains here and there.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I think Luigi'll beat Tifa. My guts are telling me that. (I'm sure somebody's going to make some joke about that)

Kirby vs Tidus part 2, perhaps?
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The Power is Yours.

Well, actually, delerium, I would say many expected this to be a close match. I was not among them.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

argh, sp, sry.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Heh, DK won the 15 minute update by 2 votes.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

zero is strong. very strong. i used to think shadow was about the same strength as him. but now i think zero is the most underrated powerhouse we have
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So what do you do all day ? I run a couple of newspapers.- Orson Welles in Citizen Kane

Heh, Zero wasn't so "underrated" in the 2004 offseason, I'll tell ya that.
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The Power is Yours.

i meant by the casuals. this board on the other hand knows his true strength
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So what do you do all day ? I run a couple of newspapers.- Orson Welles in Citizen Kane

Dante/Vincent is not going to be a 70/30 affair, and anyone who thinks that way has lost all predicting privledges. In fact, it won't even be 60/40. It'll be somewhat close.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors

Yeah. The casuals always underestimate Zero and Mega Man. Mega Man's backing in 2003 was especially pathetic.
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The Power is Yours.

It seems ridiculous to think that DKs updates are legitimate. MC is at full power during the day and these sudden surges seem suspicious.
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"Where was God when I failed my saving throw? ****ing bastard." I_Don't_Love_You

Eh, you could blame Mega Man's 2003 percentage more on Vercetti. I think anyone who had to go through him that year would've had a low prediction percentage.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Yeah, and Kerrigan would struggle with Guybrush Threepwood. Suuuuuure.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

i always thought that if vincent were to enter this contest he'd be about dante's strength. half a year later the two are set to meet each other. oh joy to the world
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So what do you do all day ? I run a couple of newspapers.- Orson Welles in Citizen Kane

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/28/2005 4:04:55 PM | #383
Eh, you could blame Mega Man's 2003 percentage more on Vercetti. I think anyone who had to go through him that year would've had a low prediction percentage.

But it was 50% after his match against Zelda...
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Yeah, and Kerrigan would struggle with Guybrush Threepwood. Suuuuuure.

... er... what?
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The Power is Yours.

All the more reason to vote for Megaman and screw their pathetic brackets.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

What in the world does Guybrush Threepwood have to do with anything? Or have you already forgotten what this contest has taught us, that the extrapolated stats are not completely transitive? For the record, I think Kerrigan would struggle with the likes of Gordon Freeman.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors

Eh, Zelda deserved a decent backing though. She had decent strength to back up her numbers.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/28/2005 4:06:37 PM | #389
For the record, I think Kerrigan would struggle with the likes of Gordon Freeman.

That'd still put Vincent among the likes of Zero and Sonic and Ganondorf.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

But it was 50% after his match against Zelda...

Oh right. Still, Link HAD dominated the 2002 contest, so some overestimation on her part was inevitable as well. Mega Man's part of the bracket was casual bait at its finest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Who says Master Chief sucks with the second night vote? He split it almost 50/50 with freaking FROG. That's better than anything we've seen from DK during the second night.
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Master Chief's path to the championship: Round 2: (4) Donkey Kong.
*waves M$ flag*

Kerrigan is Ratchet level.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

Unfortunately, I suspect that Mega Man will have higher bracket-backing than Sonic to the final four. (Mega will have ~27%; Sonic will have ~23%)

Am I inventing those numbers? Technically, yes. But there's good reason to believe that Vincent, Luigi, Tifa, and the like will have much casual support.
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The Power is Yours.

From 13:00 update:

I'm estimating 96,000 total votes now because of a large influx of late (the increased estimate will help MC's figures using this method). Master Chief needs 51.55% of those remaining votes to win. In the last hour, Master Chief got 51.76% of the vote. So if he continues at this rate for the rest of the match, MC will win by about 150.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

rockman is just not a mainstream guy that everyone knows so that's why he doesn't get the backing he deserves. if this contest was held in japan and megaman is called by his proper name then rockman and bomberman in the finals baby
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So what do you do all day ? I run a couple of newspapers.- Orson Welles in Citizen Kane

That'd still put Vincent among the likes of Zero and Sonic and Ganondorf.

I highly doubt Vincent is that strong. I'm not saying Dante will beat Vincent, I'm just saying it's going to be a lot closer than some people here think it will be.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors

Oh right. Still, Link HAD dominated the 2002 contest, so some overestimation on her part was inevitable as well. Mega Man's part of the bracket was casual bait at its finest.

Mega had weak backing in 2004 too. I seem to recall that he only had ~70% taking him out of his fourpack and ~50% to take his division... where he was set up to face - you guessed it - Frank Stallone.

11% also picked Conker over Mega Man. CONKER!
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The Power is Yours.

Speaking of Sonic/Megaman, how does everyone think that's going to go? I mean, they both did face Zero, and it's not unreasonable to think that MM benefitted from some sff...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb