I almost want to put SFF in that match what with how bad Squall beat Geno ;_;

Disappointment my foot.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Y hello thar, Ulti. How was the wedding/honeymoon?

I think Squall did as expected.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

Geno is a new character, we have no idea where he lands.

So? Impressing or disappointing is based entirely upon expectations.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Where would you play Geno at, then? Everyone said Agent 47 would be a joke, but it turns out that even after Sora barely broke 70%, he still beat Alucard.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:34:29 PM | #318
And it's strange that, once Samus destroyed Frog, people INSTANTLY agreed (heck, they did it well before the match) that he was overrated, but with Magus, people are still hesitant.

Some of us thought Magus was overrated before the contest started and will be picking up two points when Squall beats Knuckles, whereas most people won't, and will miss a further four as well. Likely you as well, but the point needed to be made.

From: creativename | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:44:49 PM | #328
Anyone who thinks Dante will pose any challenge to Vincent is either crazy, or blind.

Because we can automatically assume that Vincent's pounding of an untested character is entirely down to the strength of Vincent, a character that you can go through the entirety (I'll concede popular) of his game and not see, rather than the likely weakness of a character from a popular game which you can play and not see at all apart from the loading screen, assuming you've bought the expansion pack.

Yes, I do think Vincent will beat Dante, but to say Dante won't pose any challenge whatsoever is nothing short of idiocy. If anything, we should expect the unexpected, and if you're going to discount the possibility of Dante going 45/55 with Vincent (which, by the way, would make me absolutely convinced that I've got the Squall > whole division pick correct) you've clearly not paid any attention to the entirety of this contest, particularly seeing how the other unexpected 1-seed with pretty much identical stats just pulled a major overperformance and upset Tidus.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

A tripling was pretty much what I expected. It puts Geno just a little above Laharl. I don't see anything wrong with that evaluation.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I think Squall did as expected.

You expected him to make it look like Geno = Terra? After Dante's match, I expected far better from Squall, with some pretty good SFF in his favor, but all we got was...a tripling. Kirby tripled Cecil, Squall should certainly do better than that against Geno.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

And those expectations are not the same for all of us.

Honestly, I was neither diappointed nor impressed. I'm waiting for him to murder Knuckles before I start jumping for joy. ;)

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/27/2005 11:54:28 PM | #344
All those people who said the Spring Contest results were invalid have thoroughly owned themselves to hell and back.

True. Welcome back.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

I expected Geno to be > Terra myself.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

And for the record:

Bowser isn't doing anything to Snake. Snake will win with 55%.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

Kirby tripled Cecil, Squall should certainly do better than that against Geno.

There's nothing wrong with Geno being stronger than Cecil.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I still have confidence in Bowser at least posing a challenge to Snake, I think he can get more than 45%, I'd take Bowser over Zelda right about now.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

There is no way Snake is beating Bowser by 55% unless Ryu has turned into an absolute joke.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

Because most people expected him to do better.

That's not Squall disappointing. That's the people being wrong.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Welcome back, Ulti. All's well I take it?
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

From: NewLib | Posted: 8/27/2005 4:02:17 PM | Message Detail
There is no way Snake is beating Bowser by 55% unless Ryu has turned into an absolute joke.

*points to Vivi*
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Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/27/2005 6:56:35 PM | Message Detail | #348
I'm still failing to see why tripling Geno is a disappointment.

It's not. I think people are just riding a Knuckles > Squall bandwagon much like they did with Master Hand > Robotnik. The difference is that Knuckles winning is relatively possible.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

So you think Vivi would give Ryu a hard time?
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

And to think that in 1-2 years we're going to look back on these topics after we finally reach the concensus that evaluating past matches and extrapolated stats are entirely useless and that a character's performance is based only on the character that they're facing at that very moment, and we'll laugh at ourselves for ever trying to statistically analyze a popularity contest.

This is what I think anyway, but if you guys value the stats over common sense which would have easily made you realize that Zelda could never beat Snake, well, go on doing it.
---
-Hot Johnny Depp

And yeah, the wedding and such was absolutely amazing. I'm still in shock.

...and I still feel like I'm on a boat. Solid ground feels funny.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

There's nothing wrong with Geno being stronger than Cecil.

No, there's not. Which is why nothing I've said about him has been definite, and it's all been in regards to expectations. Heck, most people even expected Squall to SFF Geno (like Ulti's ZOMG New School Square Hero >>>>> Old School Square Sidekick). But it didn't happen. Good for Geno, but certainly not good for Squall. Squall did nothing to impress, all the other winners in his division did.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

This is what I think anyway, but if you guys value the stats over common sense which would have easily made you realize that Zelda could never beat Snake, well, go on doing it.

Very few people took that upset, and there's barely common sense in this contest, unless we're talking about bias..
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

From: Dranze | Posted: 8/27/2005 4:04:48 PM | Message Detail
So you think Vivi would give Ryu a hard time?


No, but people are overestimating Bowser the same way people overestimated Vivi/Zelda.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

Being impressed by our expectations doesn't mean a thing. Snake did pretty much as he was expected, and Zelda impressed us all.

I think we know what happened after that.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

So you think Vivi would give Ryu a hard time?

Plenty of people thought it before the contest, with all the Bowser = Ryu / Ryu = Zelda / Zelda = Vivi talk.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

No, but people are overestimating Bowser the same way people overestimated Vivi/Zelda.

Regardless, I don't think Snake would get 55%, he can win, but 55% is pushing it..
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

Ryu would get around 52% on Vivi, I'd say.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

No, but people are overestimating Bowser the same way people overestimated Vivi/Zelda.

Regardless, I don't think Snake would get 55%, he can win, but 55% is pushing it..

Heh, I'd love to see Snake take 55% on Bowser. Then we'd have Zelda > Bowser, and Snake > Most.

And does everyone remember the main consequence of Vivi flopping, prediction-wise? After that, everyone thought DK was overrated, even in 2k3. Consequently, most believed that Fisher would come close to beating him, and look where that lead. I still believe that Vivi is quite strong.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

tomorrow's match is also worrying me. DK is more well known then MC, and MC had some different results, so I think this match has a very big potention for an upset.
---
190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy

Tomorrow's match should definitely be more exciting than a gauntlet which turned out to be loaded with NERF balls.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

To elaborate more, I think that what you call "SFF" exists in every match. In reality, the large majority of people aren't going to vote for a character or group of characters throughout the entire tournament, because they're fans of many games and like most of the characters involved. Most characters share the smae fanbase: the fanbase of video games that votes in these polls. The predictions of matches in this contest should be based more on conceptual ideas. Can Zelda score really well against Vivi? Yes. Most charcters that are in the upper echelon of characters on this site would. Snake might not do as well on Vivi for whatever reason, but using simple logic, it's hard for me see Zelda over Snake, no matter what the stats say. Are my opinions completely baseless with no reasonable arguement except intuition? Yes they are. But aren't many of the matches that way too? I'm saying it right here. Statistical analysis is utterly pointless in a popularity contest. Any time the stats call a match is total coincidence.
---
-Hot Johnny Depp

FACT or FICTION: DK will hold a small lead for the whole day and then roll over and die to the second night vote (as usual).

I say fact.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

The stats' record is still generally right more often than wrong. That's a lot of coincidences.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

His lead won't last past morning (if he even leads).
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

short said:

A can beat D with 51%
B can beat D with 51%
C can beat D with 51%

A can beat B with 55%
B can beat C with 55%
C can beat A with 55%

---
190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy

So, Ulti. You get laid?
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero

The board favors DK, so he will lead for a bit.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 40/48 points
Current Match Prediction: Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong

The stats' record is still generally right more often than wrong. That's a lot of coincidences.

That's because we create a factor every time they are wrong. In reality, the stats are only applied to matches where they had no reason to be wrong anyway.

D.K will win, with 53%.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero

From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/27/2005 6:19:07 PM | #388
So, Ulti. You get laid?

Of course he didn't. He and his wife only talked during the honeymoon. Who the hell would have sex with their spouse?
---
That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

Will you stop talking about that Snake/Zelda match? Sheesh.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

I dunno, heathens or something. Wives are for cooking.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero

Well, hate to break it to all of you naysayers on the topic but I used existing stats on every match in the Gauntlet and managed to get them all correct with ease. Very, very few of you can say that. The problem most of you are clearly having is that you're incapable of discerning which stats are good and which are bad. Zelda 2k3 = Good. Vivi 2k4 = Good. Looking at those stats Zelda's 30ish to Vivi's 27ish makes the winner clear. In fact, reaching across time and space and doing what so many of you are calling impossible I discovered it'd be 55/45 in favor of Zelda! Oh My GOD! Yes, they were off a bit (and we don't know if it's because Vivi is down or Zelda is up) but the stats have without fail put me through the gauntlet.

I've missed 3 matches, one was to a newbie and one I never used stats for (heck, who didn't think Ocelot > Pac Man was common sense?) and the other one, well... that's the one stinkin' time the stats failed me... and half of that was because I just didn't want to believe Magus was that bad off (thanks for nothing, Ganon).
---
First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!

Well, I mean even if you restrict it to basic SFF factor, the stats are consistent enough to not be pure bologna. Which is enough.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

It seems to me that the Nintendo characters have actually had 2 years to increase rather than just one. Take a look at all their 2k4 matches:

Ganondorf - Behind Link SFF (Also overrated in 2k3 due to Magus)
Luigi - Behind Yoshi and Link SFF
Bowser - Behind Mario SFF
Kirby - Behind Cloud/Squall SFF
Link pretty much everyone agrees increased.

The only one that doesn't fit is Mario, who did go up against Crono's best sprite (which he didn't have in the following match against Link). And yes, I know Crono had one in 2k3 as well, still worth considering with what we know about Magus and Frog's matches.

The gamecube made up a large amount of ground between the 2k3 and 2k4 tournaments in the console ownership polls (from around 10% below the PS2 to even), so a general shift towards nintendo certainly seems possible, but I think it happened earlier.

To explain how Snake received 55% against Zelda...

1)Solid Snake is back up to his 2K3 level, if you assume unadjusted Vivi is Vivi's correct strength, and measure through Vivi/Zelda and Zelda/Snake.
2)DK's match against Sam Fisher suggests that his x-stat through unadjusted Vivi is accurate.

To explain Bowser vs. Ryu...it may sound crazy, but at least there's evidence for it:

creativename touched on this earlier, but if you assume Sp2K5 Sephiroth = SC2K4 Sephiroth, Auron and Ryu both fall in line very well this year. If Bowser wins with 59%, Ryu's at a little above 30% on Link, equal to 2K3 Ryu. There's reason to believe Ryu, KOS-MOS, and Sonic were a bit overrated in 2K4 as they mysteriously grew proportionally. Now, Auron thorugh Auron/Ganon and Ganon/Seph puts Auron at 34.92% on BL, which Scorpion/Auron suggests.

Of course, that would suggest that Ganondorf would be equal to MARIO...hence it's only something to think about.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

*checks e-mail*

So HaRRicH came through for Mario/Ness. I see no writeups for any other matches :(

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

As for DK/Chief, I think DK will take a pretty good-sized lead with the first night vote, possibly as much as 1000, though I'm expecting it to be around 500 or so. When the day vote hits, MC should pull away and build around a 2000 or so lead. DK will make it a bit more interesting at night, but he won't have enough to come back.
---
That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]