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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 219
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:34:15 PM | Message Detail
Bravo, Bowser. Snake has his work cut out for him, but he IS the man who makes the impossible possible, so who knows...?

Just for curiosity's sake...Setting Rikku equal to unadjusted 2004 Tidus puts Ryu at 27.63% (below Dante AND Kirby, yo). Bowser based on the Spring Contest would be expected to get 60.29% here. Not claiming this as valid, but it's still interesting, for curiosity's sake mostly. Rikku might not rank above Tidus in the unadjusted stats, after all.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:36:26 PM | Message Detail
I CAN'T WAIT FOR AN ALL ZELDA FINAL FOUR.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:38:27 PM | Message Detail
"I CAN'T WAIT FOR AN ALL ZELDA FINAL FOUR."

Indeed.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:40:15 PM | Message Detail
SSB. M, if it really is gaining these characters their upswings, would have steadily increased Nintendo characters since 2002. This isn't the case.

And Gamecubes are selling about, what, 15000 a week in America? Or is that Japan? In any case, the bundle isn't doing crap. And it hasn't even been bundled with the GCN for that long, not enough to gain any serious new fans. This is no Zelda Collector's Edition.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1910

First time, in a long time (ever?), that Nintendo took over Square. It's just a matter if figuring out where the votes would go if it was only Nintendo Vs. Square. <_<

A shift in voter population, indeed.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:43:21 PM | Message Detail
Maybe Nintendo is just taking over because people are starting to get fed up with Square's recent...

Well, suckitude.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: creativename | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:45:39 PM | Message Detail
Wow, great for Bowser! I was expecting to see Bowser with 58% here, not 60.5%. Excellent stuff.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: cyko | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:50:02 PM | Message Detail

The whole "voter shift" thing makes a lot more sense than randomly putting it toward SSBM.


HELLO, PEOPLE!!! (is this microphone on?)

this is exactly what i've been saying (and a few others, too) since Luigi vs. KOS-MOS. heck, i first mentioned the possibility after Ness beat CJ. ya gotta remember that we picked up about 20000+ more voters since last summer's contest and it's very possible (and seems more and more likely as these matches go on) that the majority of those new voters favor Nintendo.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2005 1:51:24 PM | Message Detail
There's not THAT much of a difference between 58% and 60.5%. Overkill is overkill, no matter how you look at it.

Still, it's not impossible Ryu dropped a bit. I was always mystified by how he could be so strong, and him making Rikku look like a million bucks made me wary of the possibility.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:00:45 PM | Message Detail
It's amazing to think that eight of the ten Nintendo characters in this contest could probably beat Ryu.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:03:53 PM | Message Detail
Bowser will almost certainly fall below 60% before the end of the match, but this is still quite good by him.

And it makes me wonder if my LSE for the Spring contest underrates Sephiroth. Perhaps Auron is closer to his SFF adjusted estimates after all.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:06:28 PM | Message Detail
I think Bowser will have about 70% bracket support here.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: andaca | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:11:08 PM | Message Detail
My pick of having Crono to win is not one that is exactly inspiring bouts of confidence anymore....heck, with what we've been seeing I'm not even feeling too good about Samus over Mario anymore...

I think Samus is more popular with the non-Nintendite population, but if the results we've been seeing do suggest that Nintendo increased across the board, then I'm inclined to say that Mario would receive more of the benefit.
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:12:17 PM | Message Detail
Since Bowser and Ganondorf seem to be almost joined at the hip as of late, I'll say Bowser gets around 67% of the bracket support.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:17:05 PM | Message Detail
We're about half way through round 2 and we only have 1/4 of the sqaure characters left and all of them haven't had their 2nd round match yet. All four may be the favorites to win their matches, but Crono is the only character that is a lock.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: voltch | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:46:51 PM | Message Detail
square need to release FFXII soon. square power is dwindling fast round here. they should also re-release chrono trigger exactly the same but with 3d cut-scenes
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:48:52 PM | Message Detail
The BOP files merged and moved!

http://www.freewebs.com/slowflake/bop.xls

Added the upset list from the other day (which now includes Kirby beating Tidus), and I should be making a BOP vs. casuals sheet in the coming days.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: voltch | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:51:50 PM | Message Detail
well the gauntlet has come and gone. it has been an eventful sequence that has made us learn something definitive that confirms assumptions. like meg ryan=**** and nintendo=uber powerful
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:53:27 PM | Message Detail
Why is it that everyone wants ports of FFVI and Chrono Trigger?

They already exist, and if they don't have an SNES, PS1 or PS2, then why would they be interested in them anyway? RPG fan should have at least one of them. The only port that is slightly justified would be FFVI for DS just because it is the second-favorite FF, and there would be plenty of people willing to buy, but even then, it wouldn't be so amazing. When people saw FFIII for DS and misinterpreted it for VI, so many people were disappointed. There just isn't a reason for that, especially considering that NA has never gotten FFIII, but has had two FFVI releases.

</rant in response to voltch's post>

///
Worst. Sig. Ever.
Period.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:56:43 PM | Message Detail
I don't want ports, I want full-fledged remakes with the current technology (well, by current, I mean next-gen, and not THIS gen, either [speaking of which, when do we start speaking of the X360/Rev/PS3 as "next-gen"?]).
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: voltch | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:56:59 PM | Message Detail
i meant a re-release for ps3 with the gaming publicity equivalent of E.T's rerelease and anyway i don't know what i'm saying cause i need to go to sleep
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/27/2005 2:57:03 PM | Message Detail
Did people already forget that even after Zelda slaughtered Vivi, Solid Snake still won by 10000 votes?
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:01:17 PM | Message Detail
"Did people already forget that even after Zelda slaughtered Vivi, Solid Snake still won by 10000 votes?"

Yes, they have.
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First you make a circle, then you dot the eyes, add a great big smile and presto, it's Kirby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:02:20 PM | Message Detail
People seem to want to put more stock into what Zelda did against Vivi than what she did against Snake.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:03:56 PM | Message Detail
People seem to want to put more stock into what Zelda did against Vivi than what she did against Snake.

Vivi faced SEPHIROTH.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:04:42 PM | Message Detail
...And that's got...what to do with anything?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:06:42 PM | Message Detail
I heard someone mention that KOS-MOS, Ryu, and probably Sonic and Samus were over-rated earlier in this topic seeing how almost 3 of those characters bombing, is it possible that someone over-performed on somebody? I'm thinking that Samus Vs Cloud match had something fishy. But who knows, if Samus isn't as strong as the stats say she is, that gives Mario an even better chance. If Sonic isn't as strong as the stats say he is, that gives Tifa (Or Luigi..) a better chance at even upsetting him. Though, it's just a thought, anyway.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:09:00 PM | Message Detail
I always suspected a Samus overperformance against Cloud but, I don't have an actual reason to think so. It was just a feeling I always had for myself for no reason.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:10:07 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth is from the same series, same console, same era as Vivi. And he is far, far more popular. And he seems like the stats's greatest enemy.

And since Vivi's position is extrapolated through Sephiroth, it has little meaning.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:10:22 PM | Message Detail
Of course that doesn't quite fit since an overperformance there would affect too many people.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: OneCrow | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:11:48 PM | Message Detail
It's true that Square Characters have dwindled down, but they've only dwindled down to the top rated, or maybe I should say most likely to succeed of them. In a best case scenario for Square, only three of them could make the eight however. Of course, I'm talking about the possibility of Squall vs. Vincent in the sixteen.

I wonder though... if they'll even make it there? Squall/Vincent would be a great match (and who does everyone think would win between them by the way?), but Vincent has to go through Dante, which won't be easy, and Squall's got Knuckles, the greatest surprise in the round of 32. Squall's definitely got an advantage however. Still... Squall and Knuckles have both lost to Solid Snake before, so that should add a bit of intrigue to the match.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:12:50 PM | Message Detail
But there's no way Solid Snake approaches 60% on Squall now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Starion | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:13:08 PM | Message Detail
I really don't think Kosmos and Ryu were overrated. They probably were that strong but lost their strength in the following years.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:15:14 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles has no chance against Squall, seriously, Knuckles only got 57% on Kefka, who struggled with Pac-Man, Squall beat someone who doubled Pac-Man.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:15:21 PM | Message Detail
I'm calling Squall over Vincent should they meet. Vincent would beat Knuckles, though.

If that makes any sense to you... x_x
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:16:24 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles has no chance against Squall, seriously, Knuckles only got 57% on Kefka, who struggled with Pac-Man, Squall beat someone who doubled Pac-Man.

Knuckles also beat Magus, who got about as much on Link as Squall got on Samus.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:16:34 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it'll be very easy for Vincent to be able to beat Knuckles and still lose to Squall.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:17:04 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles also beat Magus, who got about as much on Link as Squall got on Samus.

Let's try 7% less. You're thinking of 2002 Squall vs. Snake.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:17:12 PM | Message Detail
And you think Magus would get 35% again?
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:18:32 PM | Message Detail
I know this is a weekend, but these vote totals are awful. It's looking like it might be lucky to hit 90,000.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:18:51 PM | Message Detail
He could with a sprite DAMMIT!
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:19:06 PM | Message Detail
And you think Magus would get 35% again?

If he got a sprite...maybe. A picture like he got against Knux? Not a chance.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:19:30 PM | Message Detail
Let's try 7% less. You're thinking of 2002 Squall vs. Snake.

... whoops.

Okay, Knuckles beat Magus, who beat Ganondorf, who got 41% on Sephiroth.

Squall got 41% on Samus.

Looks like Knuckles, 55%.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:20:59 PM | Message Detail
And you think Magus would get 35% again?

Thank you for proving my point. You can't assume that everyone will do as exactly as they did in previous years.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:21:20 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it's easy to make it look like Knuckles can win when you fail to consider strength changes.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1777
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1354

Right there, it looks like Squall with 60%+.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:21:36 PM | Message Detail
Solid Snake beat Squall with 65%. Who beat Kirby with 55% who beat Tidus with 57% Who almost tied Ganondorf, who got 42% on Sephiroth.

SOLID SNAKE > LINK
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:22:22 PM | Message Detail
SOLID SNAKE > LINK

In a perfect world, yes.

On GameFAQs, unfortunately...No.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:24:02 PM | Message Detail
Squall isn't doing what Snake did. No way. He WILL win, but with 55%.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:24:22 PM | Message Detail
Actually, Samus is an interesting character looking at her matches at face value. You can prove Ryu > Sonic with her, too, heh.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:24:36 PM | Message Detail
square power is dwindling fast round here.

That makes me very sad too. ;_;

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/27/2005 3:24:52 PM | Message Detail
Squall isn't doing what Snake did. No way. He WILL win, but with 55%.

So...Knuckles would do what Kirby did yesterday?
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
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