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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 218
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:22:46 PM | Message Detail
Are we talking about B moves, or his moves in general?
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:23:08 PM | Message Detail
His B moves.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:23:37 PM | Message Detail
It does. If the level design were improved, it could be one of the best.
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I need to put something here.
From: transience | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:24:30 PM | Message Detail
in my mind, it's not the upper-tier Nintendo characters that are making huge gains (though they are making small ones), but the lesser-known guys like Ness and Kirby. as for Kirby, when you've got essentially the only new game for the DS, people buy you.

I still think Bowser will tear into Ryu tomorrow. I'll be surprised if he doesn't break 52%, like as surprised as I am today. and I prefer Ryu, by far.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:24:52 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it was kinda frustrating at first, but once you find the area map, it's a lot easier to navigate.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:25:05 PM | Message Detail
Kirby's B moves come from Hammer, Boomerang, and Stone.
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:25:44 PM | Message Detail
Bowser with 55%.

BOOK- *is knocked into unconsciousness by a giant book*
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:26:32 PM | Message Detail
I'll be surprised if Bowser approaches 55% tomorrow, and I will thusly consider him a serious threat to Snake.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:27:08 PM | Message Detail
I think I have the area map, but the map has a North, South, East and West while the levels only have a left and right, so I always get lost.
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I need to put something here.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:27:21 PM | Message Detail
Dream Division Round 2 - Match 40 – (3)Bowser vs. (2)Ryu

Bowser - Gets beat by plumbers from time to time.
Round 1 – vs. Chun-Li (Bowser: 65.90% - Chun-Li: 34.10%)

Mario beats Street Fighter yet again as Bowser sends Thunder Thighs packing.

Ryu - Kicks butt and loses to Mario RPG games.
Round 1 – vs. Rikku (Ryu: 55.72% - Rikku: 44.28%)

Rikku turned out a lot stronger than expected, but Ryu still gets the win.

No time to break yet, because we have the last of the 5 great matches in a row to analyze.

This baby has been disputed heavily since the brackets went up. Both characters are upper-mid tier characters, and rank close to each other in the stats. Ryu has only lost to elite characters, Snake, Samus and Sonic. He lost to Snake and Samus with about 43%, and got 45% on Sonic. That’s pretty impressive if you ask me. Bowser lost in 2003 to Cloud 70-30, and to Mario in 2004 because of an SFF-fest.

However, the Spring Contest throws this match in the “extremely debatable” file. Without it, many would probably take Ryu over Bowser easily, but Bowser proved in the Spring Contest that he is no joke. He won his first two matches easily, then beat Ocelot with 66%. Where he impressed the most though, was his 40% on Sephiroth. Those numbers alone have people not only beating Ryu, but winning his division, and even making it to the Final Four. 40% on Seph is no joke, especially after seeing Liquid get tripled in Seph’s previous match.

So Bowser comes into this Contest with the slight advantage, and Round 1 rolls around, Bowser nearly gets 66% on Chun-Li, which is a lot better than most of us expected. Ryu then comes up, and goes in a 56-44 match with Rikku, which was an under-performance in our eyes. So if I had to pick who went out of Round 1 looking better, I’d say Bowser easily.

This also brings up another point. With the vote totals being higher than in 2004 and Sp2005, Nintendo and Square are benefiting from it. In this case for the match, Bowser did better than expected on Chun-Li, while Rikku did better than expected on Ryu. One thing you might want to take a look at.

So yeah, I think Bowser is going to take this. I hope Ryu can keep it close though, because he need some kind of good match in this Gauntlet. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Bowser will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Bowser: 55% - Ryu: 45%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: I'm either getting married or on my honeymoon as you're reading this, so know that all of my second round writeups will suck. I'm doing the same short writeups that I did for the last round, because I don't have time to be extensive.)

(Special note from Moltar: What do me and Nintendo have in common? We both have boosted a lot in the last year.)

*looks at the first round*


...right. I'll seriously be shocked if Ryu wins this.

Prediction: Bowser with 52.89%



Tnote’s Analysis

After seeing Bowser paste Thunder Thighs, and Ryu struggle with my Al-Bhed hottie, this once hotly-contested match will be a snoozer. I personally could never see Chun-Li beating Rikku, and Bowser soundly outperformed Ryu in round one. This one may never even be close, which is a shame, given the high hopes we all had for this week of hell. Kudos to CjayC for putting four combatants in the same division, all of which fall so close to one another in our X-Stats. Many went with Bowser and did not give it a second thought, and those will be rewarded. Kirby, Tidus and Ryu are outclassed, despite the fact that Ganondorf>Bowser by more than Ganondorf>Tidus. Goodness, these matches rule!

Pick: Bowser with 53.83%

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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Kirby vs, Tidus - Bracket: Tidus - Vote: Kirby (40/44)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:27:34 PM | Message Detail
Soul’s Analysis

How they got here

Bowser defeated Chun-Li 65.9% - 34.1%
Ryu defeated Rikku 55.72% - 44.28%


The final match of this 5-day gauntlet comes down to Bowser and Ryu. Both these characters are upper midcarders in these contests. While Ryu has been strong in every contest (not including Spring), Bowser's been as strong or even stronger in the contests he was in (including Spring).

In 2002, Ryu easily disposed of CATS, before getting a respectable 42% on Samus. Of course, Bowser wasn't in this contest, so let's move on to 2003.

Ryu didn't change to much in 2003. He defeated Duke and got a great number on Dante (54%) before losing to Solid Snake (42.7%). Bowser was stuck in a four-pack with Ness, Yoshi and Conker, AKA SFF hell. After dispatching Ness easily, he went on to shock many of us by defeating Yoshi with 56%. He then went on to score 30% on a buffed up Cloud, which was somewhat impressive at the time. Again, it's hard to decide which character was more impressive that year.

Then came the highly anticipated 2004 contest, featuring Bowser Vs. Fodder and Ryu Vs. Fodder. Both Bowser and Ryu defeated their first round opponents rather easily, before landing in front of a brick wall in round 2. For Bowser, he went against Mario and suffered a SFF beating that he'll never forget. For Ryu, he went up and performed really well against Sonic by getting 44.5% on him. Because of SFF, no one knew how strong Bowser was in the contest. We had to wait for a sign of a Bowser increase or decrease from the upcoming Spring Contest.

Let's say we were pleasently surprised with the results. Bowser managed to score higher then Mario did against Sephiroth. If this wasn't a sign of a Bowser increase, I don't know what could be.

Of course, the Spring results are to be taken with a grain of salt. But at least they confirmed one thing: Bowser was indeed one of the stronger characters in the contest, and 2003 wasn't a fluke. This year, Bowser had a convincing win over Chun-Li, who stars in the same franchise as Ryu. Ryu then went on to disappoint greatly against Rikku by only getting 55% on her. Of course, she could be as strong as Dante, but I just can't see that happening. I can't see Ryu decreasing that much from year to year either, so something must have been up when that match happened. Probably Square fans started voting for their characters or something...

Either way, Bowser is the clear favorite as of right now. Of course, anything could happen in these contests, but I'm betting that Bowser takes the win safely here.

My prediction: Bowser wins with 54.67% of the vote.



Outback’s Analysis

Bowser destroyed nearly every expectation against Chun-Li. Really, there isn't much chance that Bison is stronger than Chun-Li. From what I know of other fans of the series, the hierarchy would LIKELY be as follows.

Ryu > Akuma > Ken > Chun-Li > Bison

Bowser with 54.67%



Inviso’s Analysis

This is another match that was assumed to be close. Yeah…right. Bowser beat down another Street Fighter character to get to round 2, the most famous female of the series. Ryu…struggled to beat Rikku. That’s right…annoying whore Rikku. If there was any doubt of Bowser winning before these two matches, it was all gone afterwards. Nintendo has been doing very strongly thus far in the contest. Bowser is the main villain from the most famous series in all of gaming. He managed 40% on Sephiroth. Ryu, like most 2D characters this contest, is on the decline. Even Crono seems to be fading. It’s a sad thing, but then again, Gamefaqs holds onto the past way too much sometimes. So maybe it really is a good thing. There’s one last thing to note in this match. Bowser was in Super Mario RPG, so once again, Street Fighter 2 will lose.

My Bracket: Bowser Koopa
My Vote: Ryu
My Prediction: Bowser Koopa with 57.33%
From: cyko | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:27:58 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:28:14 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:28:23 PM | Message Detail
Vlado’s Analysis

Now, these two are quite close in last year's stats, and Ryu even has the advantage, but, if their first matches proved anything, it's that it would be a miracle if Bowser didn't win here. Ryu struggled with Rikku, FFX's most insignificant and weakest representative in the contest, winning by just over 12,000 votes, while Bowser almost doubled Chun Li, a major character from Ryu's game. Basically, nothing can convince me that Ryu has any chance. Sure, he's the fighting genre icon, but Bowser is also an icon of sorts, and Nintendo proved to be even stronger than usual in this contest. Ryu has declined since last year, while Bowser has gotten stronger and the villain contest proved it.

To me, the only true question is by how much Bowser will win. I even think he'll go on to win the division. In fact, if Ryu pulls a win somehow, he'll also have no troubles with Tidus. I'm sure that the Solid Snake fans are the happiest about this division, as, whoever wins it, has absolutely no chance to touch their hero. Well, after the Ocelot bombing, Metal Gear fans will at least get to see the series' star in the Final Four. Snake deserves that, in my opinion.

Predicted percentage: Bowser with 54.71%.
From: cyko | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:28:48 PM | Message Detail
whoops, sorry 'bout that.

well, i will agree that we will get a better idea of the extent and legitimacy of this Nintendo boost in the upcoming matches.

and since i didn't say anything about today's match, i am mighty impressed that Kirby is still holding near 58%. i had a very difficult time deciding who to choose in this match, but i honestly didn't expect either character to be able to build this much of a lead. yeesh.

oh, and while i'm at it, am i the only person here who seriously thinks DK can beat Master Chief?

after Frog vs. Samus lined up with Master Chief's 2K3 numbers, (which i still hypothesize that this year's Nintendo boost is about even with the boost MC received from both Halo 2 and Red vs Blue.com), that could very well be an accurate position of where MC stands against Nintendo characters. and this is wear his 2K3 stats put him:

26 Master Chief 26.15%
27 Tommy Vercetti 25.58%
28 Jill Valentine 25.38%
29 Donkey Kong 25.34%

that means:

2K3 Master Cheif vs. 2K3 Donkey Kong - MC wins with 51.55%

this match could very easily wind up much closer than people are giving it credit for. DK could even pull it off, extending the Gauntlet one more match. of course, i still think that MC will pull out the narrow victory, seeing how DK is the biggest choke artist this side of Kuja.

oh, and also, (since i really don't remember anyone ever posting this) 2K3 Master Chief would be expected to get 26.30% on 2K3 Sephiroth and 28.67% on 2K4 Sephiroth. suddenly, Liquid Snake's 24.08 he managed on Seph doesn't look as insanely out of place as it did at first.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:29:42 PM | Message Detail
I'm still sticking with Ryu for the win. Let it be my brain or heart, it's really just the "honor" for the pick.
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:29:49 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, you have to figure out which doors go where, but it's generally not that difficult. Where they are in the current area generally tells you which direction they're going on the map itself.

And not a word about the analyses tonight. Not a word.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:29:51 PM | Message Detail
...Soul and outback predicted the same percentage? O_o;
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:30:40 PM | Message Detail
Ouch, I messed that one up. That was all meant to land on 1 page, oh well.

And the Crew all went with Bowser, and notice the double pick. Kinda cool.

And yes, MC/DK will be closer than we expect, but I'm expecting 55/45.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Kirby vs, Tidus - Bracket: Tidus - Vote: Kirby (40/44)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:30:43 PM | Message Detail
So I'm the only person that predicted Ryu to win.

Can't blame you.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:30:57 PM | Message Detail
Not even Vlado picked Ryu? Unepxected.
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I need to put something here.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:31:39 PM | Message Detail
It'll be interesting to see him try to justify Knuckles > Squall in a few days.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:32:42 PM | Message Detail
Outback and I are cool like that.

Btw, I also think that DK could beat Master Chief.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:33:10 PM | Message Detail
Tidus is starting to take off some percentage here in the night. He might be able to finish better than Ramza before all is said and done, after all.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:33:16 PM | Message Detail
oh, and while i'm at it, am i the only person here who seriously thinks DK can beat Master Chief?

Nope, DK will take down Chief.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:36:24 PM | Message Detail
And how many people do you think consider Cloud > Vyse > Tifa?

Consider Bowser/Ness and Mario/Ness; using the value of Ness's SFF'd value in 2k3 against any Mario, and Ness should have gotten no lower than 20.22% by the stats. Therefore, there was at least 3% on the GameFAQs population who think Mario > Ness > Bowser. This may be discredited due to SFF (and MAYBE rightfully so) and Nintendo =/= RPGs, but right now it's still something that says otherwise.


Man, I wish Ulti was here for this discussion >_>

Ulti just e-mailed me what he wants to be his automatic response for anything stat-related: "lol x-stats." There's your Ulti for ya.


oh, and while i'm at it, am i the only person here who seriously thinks DK can beat Master Chief?

DK's very capable, but I remain faithful in MC. 51-49, MC.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:37:35 PM | Message Detail
Kong winning the match would make the contest better.
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:41:11 PM | Message Detail
Man, I really want to see Kirby/Dante now. We need to start a petition to demand that this be set up next year.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:46:23 PM | Message Detail
Bowser is only a threat to Snake if he can get more than 57% on Ryu. If he does worse than Snake, how can he be considered a threat?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:46:49 PM | Message Detail
Because Snake isn't as strong as he was in 2003. He wouldn't beat Ryu with 57% now.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:46:51 PM | Message Detail
We've needed Kirby/Dante since 2k2, heh. Hell, I wish CJay would have at least teased us with it in the Villain Contest by replacing Ghaleon with King Dee Dee Dee (or maybe even Meta-Knight?).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:48:01 PM | Message Detail
I think ryu well end up being a bit below his 2k3 level. Considering him and KOS-MOS increased practically the same amount in the xstats in 2k4 compared to there 2k3 levels throws up some warning signs that ryu never actually surpassed his 2k3 level and just overperformed on sonic for some reason. The fact that he only got 55% on rikku, and KOS-MOS got completely totalled by luigi doesn't exactly make him look good either. I'm guessing bowser wins with at least 55%. I'm might be underestimating ryu, but all the signs are pointing towards bowser beating him with ease.

With that said ryu needs to take an early lead or he stands no chance at winning. Streetfighter in general has a weak spot in the morning vote, and the daytime isn't exactly kind to it either, although it holds up respectably there.
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From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:54:49 PM | Message Detail
Because Snake isn't as strong as he was in 2003. He wouldn't beat Ryu with 57% now.

...you can't be serious. His match with Zelda showed that he's at least as strong as he was in 2k3. You'd actually take Ryu over Zelda? Some people really are delusional...
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:57:04 PM | Message Detail
Call me crazy, but Ryu over Zelda seems reasonable to me. I probably wouldn't put that in my bracket, but I don't see much wrong with it either.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/26/2005 8:57:41 PM | Message Detail
Unless Zelda has increased as thought, ryu vs. zelda would make a good match. The winner wouldn't be all too obvious.
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From: KingBartz | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:11:29 PM | Message Detail
Even if DK had 51% going into the day, Master Chief's super-secret-invisible-fanbase-fanbase will perk him right up, gaining him 5000+ votes.

Never forget that.

oh, and Tidus losing sucks.

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My Summer Contest Score: 38/44 - Todays Pick: Tidus
KingBartz: Been a Virgin since '87
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:22:53 PM | Message Detail
I have Ryu winning tomorrow.

I feel that you're all significantly underestimating him. Today's match shows that Rikku is very likely stronger than Tidus, which bodes well for Ryu.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:26:22 PM | Message Detail
I feel that you're all significantly underestimating him. Today's match shows that Rikku is very likely stronger than Tidus, which bodes well for Ryu.

...Not really. Rikku being stronger than Tidus is only impressive if Tidus is strong in the first place. And Rikku would have to be a lot stronger than Tidus for Ryu to beat Bowser. What does today's match show? Tidus = Chun Li?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:27:00 PM | Message Detail
How does it show that? If anything it makes rikku look worse.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:27:48 PM | Message Detail
That was meant to be a response to phediuk's post.
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From: yoshifan823 | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:40:32 PM | Message Detail
It's good to see that I'm not the only one with faith in Ryu.
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Yoshifan scorecard: Next Match: Bowser Vs. Chun-Li: 86.58%
Points:Contest:14/14 Oracle:609.14/9th place
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:43:16 PM | Message Detail
After seeing him only get 55% on rikku and kos-mos get destroyed by luigi, I'm having a hard time giving ryu any sort of chance. I just don't see him winning. He'll probably go neck and neck with bowser in the first few hours and die with the morning vote.
---
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:47:42 PM | Message Detail
Ryu went neck to neck against Sonic. He should at least put up a lead against Bowser. If not, this could get ugly.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/26/2005 9:51:10 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinking Ryu/Bowser will play out like Sora/Alucard, with the match being close early and then Bowser winning by ~10000 votes.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/26/2005 10:09:23 PM | Message Detail
...you can't be serious. His match with Zelda showed that he's at least as strong as he was in 2k3.

Not really. It showed him right around his 2004 level, a little above but still well below 2003.

You'd actually take Ryu over Zelda?

Easily.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/26/2005 10:16:26 PM | Message Detail
Bowser Vs. Ryu will go very similarly to todays match. Bowser will never not lead.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Zero
From: uctriton00 | Posted: 8/26/2005 10:22:15 PM | Message Detail
Bowser ftw

it's Nintendo

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ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/26/2005 10:23:52 PM | Message Detail
Not really. It showed him right around his 2004 level, a little above but still well below 2003.

How did it do that? Zelda clearly showed that she improved beyond her 2003 level in Round 1, and what Snake did to her after that showed that he was back up to 2003 status.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/26/2005 10:24:09 PM | Message Detail
Bowser will certainly have a large bracket percentage, for what it's worth.

Today's vote totals are really nice!
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There is only one war of the brood!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/26/2005 10:26:30 PM | Message Detail
...you can't be serious. His match with Zelda showed that he's at least as strong as he was in 2k3.

. . . No, it actually didn't show anything of the sort. If you hold Zelda constant, Snake beats Zelda by the amount he did in the match. I actually find that quite likely to believe, especially since Vivi doesn't just completely fall off the map -- he's still above DK with a 52% projection.

You'd actually take Ryu over Zelda? Some people really are delusional...

Delusional? That's actually a really good pick.

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
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