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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 218
From: transience | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:51:05 PM | Message Detail
you just answered your own question.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:51:58 PM | Message Detail
Lol.But still,I would like a more clear answer...
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:52:23 PM | Message Detail
A nice freeze at 58%.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: transience | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:52:40 PM | Message Detail
I say it's a tossup. I'm starting to lean towards Mario, but that's probably because I have Samus in my bracket and everything else has gone wrong.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:53:28 PM | Message Detail
"How in the world did Tidus get 41% on Sonic? Heck, Kirby is less than a percent away from matching what the Blue Blur did in 2002."

The poll broke down for a while and stopped counting votes, taking away some of Sonic's powerful day vote and making vote totals lower then they should be. If all went as planned, then Sonic would've easily broke 60%.
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Summer Contest Score: 41/44
Today's Pick: Tidus
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:53:55 PM | Message Detail
I sure hope she wins too.It will destroy a lot of brackets...
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:54:36 PM | Message Detail
Might exist? Of course it does. CONSISTENCY WHEN MEASURED THROUGH OTHERS. That's strong evidence that doesn't disappear when you ignore it.

Let me put it this way, I'll peg Auron at 30% on BL for the next contest, 'nuff said.

There's little reason for Auron to get SFF'ed by Seph, let alone by that much.

Besides, if you're willing to adjust Auron through tails and Scorp, why not adjust Squall through Kirby and Bomberman?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 2:56:12 PM | Message Detail
Because there's no possible SFF in Squall Vs. Samus. You use the most rational adjustment.

Auron Vs. Cloud and Auron Vs. Sephiroth is not rational.

And you can't say that Cloud would SFF and Seph wouldn't since the results from both were pretty much the same.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:00:09 PM | Message Detail
Because there's no possible SFF in Squall Vs. Samus. You use the most rational adjustment.

Auron Vs. Cloud and Auron Vs. Sephiroth is not rational.


You ignored Link/Samus SFF, so in what way is Squall's 2k3 number rational?

And you can't say that Cloud would SFF and Seph wouldn't since the results from both were pretty much the same.

They differ by 1% or less, which is reasonable for a minor case of SFF in Cloud vs. Auron.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:00:28 PM | Message Detail
Besides, if you're willing to adjust Auron through tails and Scorp, why not adjust Squall through Kirby and Bomberman?

Yeah, let's adjust him based on this performance by Kirby today.

Yeah, right where he's supposed to be.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:01:09 PM | Message Detail
You ignored Link/Samus SFF, so in what way is Squall's 2k3 number rational?

Then it's even higher, making a huge dip irrational.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:05:48 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, let's adjust him based on this performance by Kirby today.

Yeah, right where he's supposed to be.

Then it's even higher, making a huge dip irrational.


That's not my point, if you're going to adjust one char based on the opponents he defeated, than they should do that to every char out there for consistency.

If you don't do that for Squall, then you don't do that for others.

Btw, it's huge jumps that are irrational, huge dips are perfectly normal.

Tidus and a few others have proven that chars can take huge dips.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:07:25 PM | Message Detail
Besides, Kirby seems to have jumped around ever since 2K2. He's all over the place, so measuring through him isn't agood idea. Both Tails and Scorpion have been relatively consistent.

That is, except if you think there wasn't any SFF in Auron's matches. In which case Tails takes a massive dive in 2003 and Scorpion takes a massive dive in 2004. Both of which are anomalies to their other performances. Coincidence?

Probably not.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:07:49 PM | Message Detail
Actually, huge moves up or down without explanation are irrational. It's likely Tidus was never that high, rather than taking a huge fall.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:16:27 PM | Message Detail
Ganondorf has increased by quite a bit it seems...
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Kirby 3:16
32nd/125 in the Guru Standings. Why did I pick Kratos? *sigh*
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:19:18 PM | Message Detail
Besides, Kirby seems to have jumped around ever since 2K2. He's all over the place, so measuring through him isn't agood idea. Both Tails and Scorpion have been relatively consistent.

That is, except if you think there wasn't any SFF in Auron's matches. In which case Tails takes a massive dive in 2003 and Scorpion takes a massive dive in 2004. Both of which are anomalies to their other performances. Coincidence?

Probably not.


Tails was actually pretty consistent between 2k2 and 2k3, if you ignore the whole Cloud vs. Mario fiasco, of course.
So he's just as bad of a measuring stick as Kirby is.

As for Scorp, back in 2k4, people used Tidus to say that MM has a chance against Link as Tidus seemed to be consistent between 2k2 and 2k3.
We all know now how good did that hold, the same thing might be the case with Scorp.

Actually, huge moves up or down without explanation are irrational. It's likely Tidus was never that high, rather than taking a huge fall.

Look at MM, he managed to decrease by about 4% every year ever since 2k2.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:20:13 PM | Message Detail
Except ignoring the Cloud Vs. Mario fiasco is insane. Cloud=Crono? No sir. I don't like it.

Assuming Cloud is around Seph's level, logically, he's a LOT higher.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:22:32 PM | Message Detail
Cloud obviously would of beat Mario if Mario Sunshine didin't come out on the day of the frikking match.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:24:36 PM | Message Detail
I mean run it down. Either you think 2K3 Kirby's from Alucard Vs. Sephiroth is accurate at 26.5, then you have Tidus at near FODDER. That can't be the case at all. Clearly Kirby's 2005 is different from 2003, or Alucard was underrated, whatever you want to call it. Who knows. If that's the case, nothing is stopping from 2004 from being much different.

The point is that Kirby's rating somewhere between 2003 and 2005 is clearly not 26.5. So using that rating to measure Squall? No, not good. Measuring through Kirby can't even be done. Likewise with Bomberman. Measuring in the same 4 pack and got the same raw deal. Not to mention his impressive 24% on BL rating in 2K2. What with the vote totals in 2K4 looking more like 2K2, that would probably be a more accurate rating.

In which case, measuring Squall through that Bomberman puts him, would you look at that, just about where his 2K3 ranking was. How nice.

We have consistent numbers that make sense for both Scorpion AND Tails. And after Tails put up an impressive 42.5% on Dante and the fact that Auron outperformed Zero against Scorpion. How can you just ignore that and say "Oh, well, both Tails and Scorpion just happened to do really badly in just those years"
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:24:58 PM | Message Detail
Except ignoring the Cloud Vs. Mario fiasco is insane. Cloud=Crono? No sir. I don't like it.

Assuming Cloud is around Seph's level, logically, he's a LOT higher.

Cloud obviously would of beat Mario if Mario Sunshine didin't come out on the day of the frikking match.


That's not my point mind you, I was just explaining why Tails' 2k2 number is not legit.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: voltch | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:25:35 PM | Message Detail
tails ought to come back next year and i feel asleep
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:28:08 PM | Message Detail
The fact that his 2K2 number isn't legit is the entire point. The fact that Tail's 2K3 ranking is so close to his 2K2 ranking is obviously WRONG since his 2K2 ranking is obviously WRONG.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:31:52 PM | Message Detail
We have consistent numbers that make sense for both Scorpion AND Tails. And after Tails put up an impressive 42.5% on Dante and the fact that Auron outperformed Zero against Scorpion. How can you just ignore that and say "Oh, well, both Tails and Scorpion just happened to do really badly in just those years"

I already explained why Tails 2k2 number is bad, so Tails isn't a good measuring stick, since consistency can't be established with only 2 years worth of data.

Tidus, like Scorp, appeared consistent between 2k2 and 2k3, but that assumption breaks down for Tidus in 2k4.

We know the reason now, but we didn't back then.

Scorp might be a case similar to Tidus, he appeared to be consistent but he really isn't.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:35:00 PM | Message Detail
The fact that his 2K2 number isn't legit is the entire point. The fact that Tail's 2K3 ranking is so close to his 2K2 ranking is obviously WRONG since his 2K2 ranking is obviously WRONG.

That IS my point, we only have ONE good number on Tails, his 2k4 number.

So you can NEVER claim that Tails is in any way or form consistent, since we only have ONE good number on him.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:37:38 PM | Message Detail
Anyway, Tails is underrated in 2002, and that rating is lower. It can only go UP. We're not talking about direct measurements here. We know it's higher than 20.7, and adjustments have already been done for Cloud=Sephiroth that put him in the 23s. And in 2K4, he also performed in that area.

Is Tails really 23.8 in 2K2? Maybe not. Does that matter? Not really. The point was that since he was 23.2 in 2K4, and that he has to be at least a bit higher than 20.7 in 2K2, that is consistence in itself.

Those are out of the way and overcomplicated explanations for situations that MAY come into effect. There's no reason to doubt the simplest explanation until something contradicts it.

Auron is consistent when measured through 2 opponents that have been fairly consistent themselves. Yes, it's possible that said consistency could all be some elaborate factor that will be unveiled in the future that is nigh impossible to see coming. But until that factor is revealed, there's no reason to think it exists.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:38:50 PM | Message Detail
When Auron is only expected to get 60% on Tails one year later, that should tell you something's up.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:39:44 PM | Message Detail
And the base argument was significant SFF in Auron's matches.

If you admit to 2K2 being erroneous, and by nature underrated, you by your own admission, admit to the 2K3 also being erroneous by SFF.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:41:23 PM | Message Detail
And I think I just realized why Master Hand had what was necessary to beat Kuja. He's a boss fight in Kirby and the Amazing Mirror.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:43:47 PM | Message Detail
That's when you do a case study.

How big are the typical SFF between Square chars?

Crono vs. Magus and Seph vs. Vivi suggest it's near-zero.

While Aeris vs. Sora and Cloud vs. Squall suggest it's significant.

Since Auron faces Seph in 2k4, the former seems much more probable to me.

Note that Auron himself might not be consistent, as we know that Tidus is definitely NOT consistent.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:45:17 PM | Message Detail
Since Auron faces Seph in 2k4, the former seems much more probable to me.

When you compare what he was supposed to do against his opponents based on the stats as opposed to what he actually DID, it doesn't seem probable.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:46:28 PM | Message Detail
Except that he's conveniently throwing that out in favor of a THEORY that says Auron was not SFFed.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:49:00 PM | Message Detail
When Auron is only expected to get 60% on Tails one year later, that should tell you something's up.

That Auron is as inconsistent as Seph?

Really, SFF isn't the only possible explanation.

And the base argument was significant SFF in Auron's matches.

If you admit to 2K2 being erroneous, and by nature underrated, you by your own admission, admit to the 2K3 also being erroneous by SFF.


I said nothing about 2k3, I only said 2k2 was erroneous, don't put words in my mouth.

And Cloud's rank in 2k2 can be off by as little as 1%, or as much as 10%, so all bets are off.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:50:49 PM | Message Detail
And besides, I think there's a distinct separate between new school Square and old School Square.

FF9 fits much closer in style to old school, although at the same time fitting in with the actual timeline. Hence why it's the most 'dividided on' FF game. It clashes with the typical taste of FF7, FF8, and FF10 fans.

New school FF can be SFFed by the most powerful of its harbinger, and that is FF7. It's only logical. If it can happen to Squall by a large margin, then it happening to Auron does not seem illogical at all. At the least, it's a much better comparison than a match with Vivi.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:51:48 PM | Message Detail
That Auron is as inconsistent as Seph?

Really, SFF isn't the only possible explanation.


But it's the most reasonable. Claiming inconsistency is little more than a cheap cop out.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:53:56 PM | Message Detail
I said nothing about 2k3, I only said 2k2 was erroneous, don't put words in my mouth.

Then you don't see something wrong with a Tails plummet in 2K3?

Hell, 2K3 Tails is even RATED LOWER than the underrated 2K2 Tails. This doesn't clock in on the common sense meter to you?

And Cloud's rank in 2k2 can be off by as little as 1%, or as much as 10%, so all bets are off.

The exactness is irrelevant. Stats are never exact. Generalizations are all that is needed.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:57:41 PM | Message Detail
INCORRIGIBLE. I'm just going to go eat now.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 3:57:44 PM | Message Detail
When you compare what he was supposed to do against his opponents based on the stats as opposed to what he actually DID, it doesn't seem probable.

Except that he's conveniently throwing that out in favor of a THEORY that says Auron was not SFFed.


Think then, why would Auron get SFF'ed by Seph?

What similarity in appeal do they have?

Their image is different, their char is different, and should they meet they won't be on the same side.

They're not in the same game, not even on the same console, and their games are 5 years apart.

Now look at Crono vs. Magus, what SFF is there in that match?

And those 2 guys are from THE SAME GAME!

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:00:15 PM | Message Detail
It's a shame Tidus dropped so much from 2002. Back then, he got 41 on a more powerful Sonic, and now he's barely getting 42 on Kirby! Oh well, Kirby rules.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:01:33 PM | Message Detail
The difference in Crono's and Magus's rating were already that large to begin with. And yet, Magus is a fan favorite and has an independant fanbase. It's the reason Magus did not suffer too badly in that match. It's a case by case thing.

Cloud and Sephiroth can SFF Auron much the same way that they could SFF most other Final Fantasy characters.

Final Fantasy 7 is like, the gateway for Square's power here. It holds more influence than others. Tidus, Squall, they'd be affected the most considering they're a result of the gateway. FF9, being a throwback to past FF games, not so much.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:02:31 PM | Message Detail
You could ask ALL of those same questions about Link/Yoshi, and Link destroyed him.

And you really need to stop leaning on "No Crono/Magus SFF" like it's some sort of crutch to get you out of any situation.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:03:00 PM | Message Detail
And you see, I create theoreis based on the fact that the stats imply that there WAS SFF. I don't create theories to avoid the implifications of the stats.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:05:46 PM | Message Detail
You could ask ALL of those same questions about Link/Yoshi, and Link destroyed him.

That match never happened.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:07:13 PM | Message Detail
And hell, there was a reason why everyone talked about how Magus could possibly rSFF Crono in their match.

It's because Magus is the inside-the-game fan favorite and isn't a personality-less mute.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:08:05 PM | Message Detail
Why do people keep arguing no Magus/Crono SFF? If that were true, Knuckles would've done much better on him. I think it's pretty clear that Magus dropped from 2k3-2k4 and 2k4-2k5, and was SFF'd in 2004. Assuming all characters are constant is just ****ing ridiculous.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:08:11 PM | Message Detail
Of course, once the match was over, everyone saw that obviously, Magus was "destroyed by SFF" which was disappointing. But I guess little did they know at the time that Magus almost delivered on their hopes.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:19:45 PM | Message Detail
But it's the most reasonable. Claiming inconsistency is little more than a cheap cop out.

So is claiming consistency, in general, how many chars have been consistent?

Very few, if any, even the big names aren't very consistent.

Then you don't see something wrong with a Tails plummet in 2K3?

Hell, 2K3 Tails is even RATED LOWER than the underrated 2K2 Tails. This doesn't clock in on the common sense meter to you?

The exactness is irrelevant. Stats are never exact. Generalizations are all that is needed.


Assuming Squall is constant from 2k3 to 2k4, Bomberman took a dive only in 2k3.

Doesn't that clock in on the common sense meter to you?

Is it too farfetched to think that Tails could've done the same?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:22:51 PM | Message Detail
No, assuming consistency when it lines up with the stats is not a cop out. It's good logic.

Claiming inconsistency in an effort to deny what the stats project is a cop out.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:23:19 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:24:24 PM | Message Detail
You could ask ALL of those same questions about Link/Yoshi, and Link destroyed him.

You're talking about Nintendo chars there.

And you really need to stop leaning on "No Crono/Magus SFF" like it's some sort of crutch to get you out of any situation.

Why?
Because it throws into question the size or even existance of SFF between Square chars?
NO WAY!

I'll keep quoting that match until you understand that SFF doesn't always exist between Square chars as long as they're significantly different in their appeal.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/26/2005 4:24:35 PM | Message Detail
If Bomberman was just the one person, it wouldn't raise a flag. But we're talking 2 different people here who shared a common opponent in Auron, who was going up against a candidate for SFF BOTH times. It's counterintuitive NOT to take a second glance.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
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