So Ganon rSFF's Zelda? I would imagine it'd go the other way if rSFF was involved at all.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I'm thinking Zelda would win that SFF match-up handily. When it comes to getting spanked due to SFF, we've seen no one nearly as pathetic as Ganondorf. Of course, Zelda won't pull a Link, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it end at 60/40.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Well, there's no way of saying the same wouldn't happen to Zelda should she face Link. I wouldn't bet on rSFF in that match, unless it coincidentally didn't have a picture.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

If Magus Played Ganon = Magus

Even after he lost to Knuckles, you think Magus would beat Ganondorf?

Hey, I'm alright if he wasn't to think that.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Well, not so much "wasn't" as "wants".

I hate typos.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

In other news, this match has just pulled ahead of Ganondorf/Yuna in terms of total votes, and I don't think it'll be looking back.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I'm alright as well, I just wanted a explanation.

So...If Ganon 2K3 = Magus 2K5 (roughly), Zelda 2K3 > Ganon 2K3. Yet, Ganon is clearly stronger than Zelda this year. How could THAT be? Something's fishy...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I wouldn't say Ganon 2k3 = Magus 2k5. I'm thinking Magus dropped.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

How is Ganon clearly stronger than Zelda this year? I'd say Snake is clearly stronger than Sonic this year, and Ganon and Zelda are fairly close together.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

How do we know Ganon is stronger than Zelda this year? Maybe Snake's a beast this year. Ever pondered that? Huh? HUH?
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

And I know there's always the matter of Sam Fisher, but...I don't know.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Oh, and I'd put Ganon 2k3 at around 31-32%, which is pretty accurate as far as WDF'd Tidus is concerned, I think.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I wouldn't say Snake > Sonic so quickly right now, although if this year is going to be like 2k3 for those two it could definitely happen. I'd rather see how Sonic does on Diablo before worrying about him.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

The thing about Diablo is we can't be sure of his contest strength. Ocelot losing to Pac-Man ftw.

Ocelot losing to Pac-Man was more suggestive of Bowser being overrated in the Spring Contest. However, Ganondorf has failed to disappoint for his results, and that's who Diablo faced. We should at least be able to get a rough estimate for Sonic.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I made a stats topiX once and it got to 500 =/.
---
Summer 2005 Contest Score : 30/32
Rank : 42/33793 Today: Mario Tomorrow: Zero

I made a stats topiX once and it got to 500 =/.
---
Summer 2005 Contest Score : 30/32
Rank : 42/33793 Today: Mario Tomorrow: Zero

Well, I think it's clear that Ganondorf is worth at least 35% on BL, judging by the way he beat Auron. So, if Zelda = Ganon, Solid Snake = Mario. I just -can't- see Snake that high.

Okay, so it's possible Ganondorf was significantly stronger in 2K3 than Magus is now. I actually hope that's the case, as I REALLY want to see Kirby beat Tidus (contrary to my bracket).

Yet, Ganon would have to be at around 30% on Link for Ganon > Zelda back in 2K3...bah, whatever. I'm starting to wonder again if the Knuckles-over-Magus upset was mostly due to Magus' just dropping, not him being so much overrated in the first place. Or maybe Zelda was overrated in 2K3 as some people surmised a long time ago. I have big doubts for those, though. Kirby vs. Tidus should sorta clear things up.

Ocelot losing to Pac-Man was more suggestive of Bowser being overrated in the Spring Contest. However, Ganondorf has failed to disappoint for his results, and that's who Diablo faced. We should at least be able to get a rough estimate for Sonic.

I'm glad somebody else believes Bowser overperformed, and Ganondorf didn't (as much). However, I'm a bit wary about Sonic's measurement through Diablo...Diablo looked WAY different from his other pictures when he faced Ganondorf. I don't really think it made much of an impact, but maybe it did...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'm starting to wonder again if the Knuckles-over-Magus upset was mostly due to Magus' just dropping, not him being so much overrated in the first place

Come on. Are you trying to tell me that Sam Fisher was ever good enough NOT to be fodder? When three out of the four experience major drops, you tend to stick with that as the anomaly.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Gear Division Round 2 - Match 38 – (6)Alucard vs. (2)Sora

Alucard - Loves poetry, long walks on the beach, and the night vote.
Round 1 – vs. Kratos (Alucard: 55.52% - Kratos: 44.48%)

Kratos does a lot better than most expected…go him.

Sora - Because if you get FF characters to make cameos in your games, you get popular.
Round 1 – vs. Agent 47 (Sora: 70.73% - Agent 47: 29.27%)

Oh Sora, you can’t even triple fodder like 47.

3 good matches in a row in Round 2? Very nice. This one is definitely the most debatable of the 3 though, so let’s get to work.

Alright, when the brackets went up and everyone was arguing, one of the things people argued about first were…all the other matches. This one wasn’t looked at until later, when people actually began to realize this is a toss-up match on paper. Like in2003, when Sora suffered massive SFF against Aeris, 2004 was Alucard’s year to get hit by it….indirectly. He faced Ganondorf, who was SFFed to hell by Link. So, we have to use the Adjusted Stats for this one.

18 Bowser 30.97
19 Alucard 29.75
20 Auron 29.37
21 Sora 28.93
22 Kirby 28.54

That’s from the 2004 Stats. As you can see, Alucard ranks just above Sora by less than 1%. Alucard would win with 51.37% using that. Then again, we shouldn’t trust Alucard’s 2004 number much. All we know is he did about 3% better on Ganon than expected, which might have meant he made a small boost, but that’s it. Sora, on the other hand, surprised most of us by owning HK-47 and Ryu H., then got 35%+ on Samus.

This year, Alucard had to face Kratos, and Kratos impressed by getting 44.48% on Alucard, and took nearly half the brackets. Sora didn’t look to hot either, letting Agent 47 get over 29% of the vote on him. So, who wins?

I have Sora in my bracket. Sora has CoM and possibly hype from KH2 in his corner, while Alucard has….um…nothing? At lest nothing major until Castlevania DS comes out. Sora is also looking to be the bracket favorite, and we all know bracket voters like to skew close matches. Sora also looks to be getting a lot more popular. Look at him from 2003-2004. Using 2004 stats, Sora should have beaten Aeris in 2003, instead get doubled by her. While Sora gets more popular, Alucard seems to be going nowhere…but backwards. His match with Kratos was a bit unimpressive to me, and it’s possible Alucard could have dropped a little.

It’s hard to pick a clear favorite, but if I had to choose, I’d give it to Sora, by a hair. This one is sure tough to call, but like all very-hyped matches, it will probably turn out to be a dud…

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sora will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sora: 51% - Alucard: 49%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: I'm either getting married or on my honeymoon as you're reading this, so know that all of my second round writeups will suck. I'm doing the same short writeups that I did for the last round, because I don't have time to be extensive.)

...make that the second time I go against my bracket when writing for
this topic.

Prediction: Sora with 51.57%



Tnote’s Analysis

Another quality match, the third in a row we are lucky to watch. Another X-Stat closey that will end up being not so close. Alucard is overrated in the stats much like Ganondorf is, as we adjusted for 2k3 performance, when Magus just proved that four-pack, much like Frog’s, is overrated. I know I took Ganon>Auron, but that is solely because he beat the hero, so I think he will beat the sidekick. Sora showed last year that he was SFFed madd style by Aeris, and will have a very real shot at making the final four. If Kingdom Hearts II was released in the next month, I may predict it, but for now we will just stick to the inevitable victory he slaps up on Dracula’s and Shakespeare’s love child.

Pick: Sora with 53.83%

Soul’s Analysis

How they got here

Alucard defeated Kratos 55.52% - 44.48%
Sora defeated Neo Tanner 70.73% - 29.27%

Hmm... Third tough match in a row, with two more hard ones right after this one. I would hate to miss these five days. Sucks to be you Ulti.

Again, another case of both competitors underperforming. Sora was supposed to make Agent 47 look like Tanner, but couldn't even break 71% on him. Alucard really underperformed when he only got 55% on Kratos. Of course, Kratos was untested and his game was still somewhat new, so he could have looked stronger then he actually was.

Like Slowflake said in his topic about the star characters of the round, I have absolutely no clue on who's going to win. I believe that this could be the biggest toss up in this entire contest. Alucard was impressive in his 43% loss against Ganondorf last year, while Sora got 34% on Samus. If you believe that Samus could defeat Ganondorf with around 60%* (not including SFF), then Sora would be a safe pick. In my opinion, as strong as Samus is, I don't believe she could have posted those numbers against Ganondorf last year, so I'm sticking with Alucard.

My prediction: Alucard wins with 52.31% of the vote. * I don't know how to calculate the stats, so that's basically a rough estimate which is most likely wrong.



Vlado’s Analysis

This is one of the few matches that have the potential to give me back some of my lost hope for the contest. Sora didn't impress at all in Round 1, barely breaking 70% against a nobody such as Agent 47, but Alucard's win wasn't all that big, either. However, his opponent came from a game that's one of the most popular ones lately, while Agent 47's is not nearly as successful. I can explain Sora's bombing with just one thing - anti-votes. It seems that he'll keep getting them, even if he'll get a cooler image with his new game. Another thing was made clear - the Kingdom Hearts II hype is barely any factor at all. Auron's loss also proved that.

Sora's clearly below his 2004 level. I don't think Agent 47 could be anything more than fodder, so the keyblade-wielder's lackluster performance is simply an indication of his own weakness. He even got the most awesome picture he could, and still barely broke 70%. Could Alucard have kept enough strength to stay above him? Many would give this match to Sora easily, thanks to the Square voters, but, things are not nearly as simple. Not in this particular contest. Not this year. I think that the stats at the end will prove that Sora has taken a fall since 2004.

I expected so much more from Alucard in Round 1... Did he get weaker, or was Kratos just quite strong? Maybe a little of both. I'm pretty sure Kratos would kill Agent 47 in a match, probably doubling him, so this should mean that Alucard would be able to take Sora. Alucard will more than likely look cooler in the picture, too. At the end, I think this will be very close, but Alucard should be able to take it, scoring the 6th win in his contest history so far... Pretty impressive for someone who starred in just one single game (Dracula's Curse doesn't really count, due to various reasons. I doubt it has even the slightest factor in Alucard's popularity.), which wasn't even an RPG, isn't it? It's all a part of the plan.

Predicted percentage: Alucard with 50.63%.

Magus was obviously over-rated to the point of being within Knuckles's reach...but I think Magus probably did drop a lil' too to seal the deal. Samus doing better on Frog than she should have on MC 2k3 compliments this nicely (though it's possible/probable Samus gained, too), and it doesn't hurt that Zidane did better against Crono than what many people wanted to give him credit for.

CT characters could be dropping...though I'm gonna wait longer and see.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

MasterMage’s Analysis

Alucard vs Sora brings us to the third match of what has been a highly… "exciting" gauntlet of what were professed to be difficult matches. I think this is the first of only two matches in this gauntlet that are actually difficult to predict. Ganon, Snake, and Bowser never really struck me as able to lose their matches. However, Tidus and Sora could win or lose. I don't expect either match to be a neck-and-neck all out brawl though.

Now, instead of taking a long, in depth look at the stats from last year, possible problems that arise in 2003, 2004, Spring of 2005, and how they could effect Alucard, I'll just say this. In 2003, Ganondorf weighed in at 11th place, based off of Magus' match with Link. In 2004, Ganondorf was assumed constant, and since he beat Alucard, it appeared that the Castlevania star gained a bit of strength. Magus' recent bombing against Knuckles make it seem improbable that Ganondorf's 2003 value is actually correct. However, as we all know, either Link gained in strength last year, or pretty much everyone decreased. Ganondorf went on overperform against Sephiroth in the Spring, and then Zelda blew out Vivi before falling fairly respectably to Snake. What I'm trying to get at is, Zelda Collector's Edition being packed with Gamecubes seems to have raised the Zelda crew since 2003, meaning Ganondorf's numbers could very well be accurate now. The point of all that is to say that I think Alucard's numbers in 2K4 are more or less fine. As for Sora's there isn't much reason to think his are really bad either.

However, instead of just using the stats to predict a small win for Alucard unless Sora got a bit of a boost from KH: CoM, I will forget about the stats. Why? Because they haven't been all that hot lately. They haven't been AWFUL, but not really good either. Let's just use common sense instead. Yuna got about 38% on Ganon. Alucard got about 42%. Auron got about 45%. Agent 47 got about 30% on Sora. HK-47 got about 34%. Basically, I just think that Alucard's performance was more impressive than Sora's performances. I know this has some basis in stats, but really, I'm not doing extrapolation or anything of that nature, just using some common sense. I wouldn't personally expect Sora to beat Yuna with more that 51%. And I'd expect Auron to beat Sora with almost 60%. I don't know if the stats say the same, but that's just what I would think. Alucard appears to fall somewhere between Yuna and Auron. Whether he is on the lower end or the higher end, I basically just can't see him losing this match. It wouldn't shock me if he did, but I don't expect it to happen. That's all there is to it.

Projected winner: Alucard with 54.12%



Inviso’s Analysis

This is another match that, like Ganondorf vs. Auron, was slightly in question before the contest began. I mean, it was pretty much a sure thing that it would happen, but no one knew who would win. Alucard had an unimpressive win over a new, mainstream character from a very new game. (It wasn’t like GTA or Splinter Cell in terms of mainstream) Sora had a decent win. His first real blowout was of the character that was referred to as Neo-Tanner. Agent 47 may be mainstream, but he’s definitely got a fan following. And so, Sora seems to be strong going into this match. Ganondorf’s over-inflation in the stats also moves Alucard down in the stats, putting Sora in a comfortable position to win this match. It looks like the plan is to lose once more.

My Bracket: Sora
My Vote: Sora
My Prediction: Sora with 54.66%

it doesn't hurt that Zidane did better against Crono than what many people wanted to give him credit for.

It doesn't matter either.

And look, I can't do any jinxing today. The analyses are evenly split.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Looks like MM forgot to add Sora's 61% on Ryu H. and 34% on Samus.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 38/42 points
Current Match Prediction: Alucard vs. Sora

Oh yes, Sora defeinitely fell, after being introduced on the highest selling system.
---
I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

Looks like MM forgot to add Sora's 61% on Ryu H. and 34% on Samus.

Nope, that was a calculated exemption. :P
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Nope, that was a calculated exemption. :P

Why so? Those two of Sora's performances are more impressive than anything Alucard has ever done.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 38/42 points
Current Match Prediction: Alucard vs. Sora

Why so? Those two of Sora's performances are more impressive than anything Alucard has ever done.

Because I was focusing on Sora's performance against Agent 47, since that took place after any boost he may have gotten from CoM, and it was not an impressive performance. I only included HK-47 so people could draw conclusions on their own on how they feel Agent 47 would do against HK-47.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Because I was focusing on Sora's performance against Agent 47, since that took place after any boost he may have gotten from CoM, and it was not an impressive performance. I only included HK-47 so people could draw conclusions on their own on how they feel Agent 47 would do against HK-47.

Agent 47 is a new character. Same with Kratos. We don't know how strong they are. Agent 47 probably does have some strength.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 38/42 points
Current Match Prediction: Alucard vs. Sora

Believe it or not, I think Sora may be even *stronger* than last year. I would take Agent 47 over HK-47. You underestimate the popularity of the Hitman series.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

And by popularity, I'm also talking about on GameFAQs as well. Hitman is no Driv3r. His fanbase got him in without any board support, after all.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

This is off-topic, but I'm about to play some Eternal Champions on the Genesis...I used to absolutely love this game. Hopefully it's still as good.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Though I'm still at a loss to explain how Tanner got in. <.<
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Agent 47 is a new character. Same with Kratos. We don't know how strong they are. Agent 47 probably does have some strength.

Did you read my last sentence? Just in case, I'll say it again. I only included HK-47 so people could draw conclusions on their own on how they feel Agent 47 would do against HK-47. I'm not trying to say anything definitive with it.

Believe it or not, I think Sora may be even *stronger* than last year. I would take Agent 47 over HK-47. You underestimate the popularity of the Hitman series.

I don't care how generic Tanner is, Agent 47 shouldn't be THAT much stronger. At least, I don't think.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

I don't care how generic Tanner is, Agent 47 shouldn't be THAT much stronger. At least, I don't think.

Tanner is basically the least memorable character you can take from any mains. His role in Driver is what Gordon Freeman's would be in Half-Life if it was in third person and if he talked every once in a while.

Agent 47 is much more compelling and interesting, and he has a 'badass' look over the 'generic' look that Tanner has. I don't expect him to place anywhere near him in the X-Stats.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

How weak can 47 be with no board support and his last game coming out over a year ago?
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

Tanner got in because Driv3r was released during nomination period.
---
BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Never eat a stoner. We have powers you havent even seen!

I think it's pretty safer to say that Agent 47 just have might been that strong..

From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/24/2005 7:56:17 PM | Message Detail
How weak can 47 be with no board support and his last game coming out over a year ago?

I agree. Partystar does have a point. 47 is no Tanner.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 38/42 points
Current Match Prediction: Alucard vs. Sora

Also, Hitman was a huge hit at Blockbuster.
Has anyone ever considered that a lot of a character's support comes from rentals?
---
I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

I agree. Partystar does have a point. 47 is no Tanner.

I still wouldn't take him over HK-47.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Trust me, the Hitman franchise actually has a fanbase outside of this board, and they stick to it and the character of Agent 47. I hear people talking about Hitman all the time here on the boards and praised endlessly for its compelling stealth gameplay. You don't hear that about Driver.

And yeah, I forgot Driv3r was released during noms.
---
Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

It's a tough match, but I'd take him over HK-47. Not only is HK-47 confined to a non-Square RPG (strike one), exclusive to the XBox (strike two), and an optional character that is easily missed (strike three), but Hitman is multiplatform, and has a well-received series and character to build off of.

Seriously. People really, really like Agent 47. People really like HK-47 too, but he's not known by many. I'd guess it would be a low scoring poll, with not too many people knowing who either were, but Agent 47 would garner enough of the casual vote to win.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

has any one realized that castlevania dos is released in japan tommorow and that alucard is a playable character?

sorry if thats been mentioned before, im just wondering if thats part of the plan or not.
---
current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds

Well, there is no further point arguing about it then. Either of us could be right, and there is really no way to be sure who that is.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

has any one realized that castlevania dos is released in japan tommorow and that alucard is a playable character?

sorry if thats been mentioned before, im just wondering if thats part of the plan or not.

I was going to mention that, but I wasn't sure if he was playable, and I doubt it will matter much anyway.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Indeed. I guess we'll get more answers after tomorrow's match.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!